Tag Archives: Atlanta Falcons

Doin Lines Week 5

That football is doing some serious lines!

Looks like we both need to re-evaluate how we are making these picks. We got one right out of ten last week, setting the lowest week total of wins since I’ve started doing this. Just like New Orleans picked itself up after Hurricane Katrina, we will have to do the same. We just need to hope that this turnaround happens a little faster than the real life one. This losing streak is showing me that no matter how much you think you know going into a game, you don’t really know crap compared to those lines makers. Just like the Geek and Sammy we have proven that we are good a pickin losers so far. It can’t be this bad for the rest of the year can it!?! I doubt it, so on to the picks.

What is the writing equivalent to being so ashamed, that you can’t even show your face in public?  Would it be, being so ashamed that you wouldn’t want to let anyone read your words?  Because that is how I feel after three consecutive, embarrassing weeks of football picks.  If you fancy my words, or my humor, or perhaps lack there of, I appreciate your loyalty to me.  But please, I beg of you, please do not read my picks for … *gasp* my picks.  After going 1/5 last week, it absolutely dawned on me.  I suck at this.  I suck at this bad.  Do I give up?  No.  But I am not cruel enough to wish bad upon our readers, so I hope you all either run as far away as you can from my picks, or simply pick the opposite.  My picks should have yellow caution tape surrounding them.  With that said, here are this week’s losers …

Last Week (Chappy 0-5, By 1-4) Overall (Chappy 8-14-1, By 6-12-2)

Denver (+7) @ Baltimore Continue reading


Doin Lines Week 1

I’ve been impressed with the revival of Entourage this season. For the last couple of seasons, I thought the show was heading downhill, but this year they got Vinny on a drug binge, making bad choices, and dating a porn star. Excellent twist to what was getting to be a repetitive series. Speaking of things reviving themselves, and the true reason for this post, the NFL is bizzniizzzizzaacckk! This means that every team has hope again (including my Raiders and the overly optimistic prediction I made about them making it to the AFC Championship), but this also marks the beginning of gambling season, and the return of Doin Lines! Even if you aren’t betting on spreads, lets face it, there’s plenty of $10 bets thrown down on games amongst friends. I found myself enjoying keeping track of how I did against the spread last year, and ended the season doing surprisingly well considering I was way below .500 for awhile there, and had pondered giving up posting my picks out of sheer embarrassment. My comeback was strong, and ending 49-45-3 on the season, which made me want to see how I could do in my second year of keeping track. At points during the season, I was much more into making these picks correctly than keeping track of my fantasy teams. Not to say that I didn’t care about fantasy, but of all the fantasy seasons, football is the least attractive to me. It’s too much of a crapshoot, and everyone talks endlessly about their “squad”, which is more of a turnoff than a girl with a butterface. Instead of picking ALL of the games, we decided to each pick the top six or so games that we believe are either mortal locks, or very watchable. I did say “we” right!?! Well, this season, By has decided to join me on the adventure of posting picks, so I don’t feel like such an addict doing all these lines by myself! By also had a couple quick thoughts before we get started.

Before I reveal my picks, I must say I’m excited to hear that Entourage is back on the radar in terms of “must see” programs.  There was a point in my life where I looked forward to watching Entourage as much as I looked forward to watching a football game on Sunday, but then it slipped.  But from what Chappy just wrote, and from what friends have mentioned, Vinny addicted to hard drugs, Sasha Grey,  plus the return of Carla Gugino (who is one fine woman) equals the return of Entourage!  I have catching up to do …

Now, on to business … Continue reading


Doin Lines Week 13

Well, I took a week off, but I’m back! I’m actually pretty surprised that I have done my picks for all but one week. Anyways in week 11, I went 4-3 which brought me back to .500 (31-31-1) on the year. As I was scanning through the upcoming games I realized that I liked a lot of road teams to win, so this week is my road LOCKS of the week! The lovely lady pictured above is a former Redskins cheerleader turned wife to a Redskin named Chris Cooley. Yes, the guy who let his dong flop out for everyone to see on his blog (that’s his wife, Christy). As usual the home teams are in bold, or in this case listed 2nd

Denver (-4.5) Over Kansas City

I actually think KC can hang in there with the Broncos, but that all depends on which Denver team shows up. Is it going to be the physical one that pushed teams around on the line of scrimmage for seven wins or will it be the team that got pushed around in four losses? I think having the extra few days off, and annihilating the Giants, should give them at least a little more confidence going into this showdown. If KC has any shot, it will be because of Jamaal Charles is running the ball effectively. The Broncos should win this game convincingly, if they truly are a contender.

Tennessee (+6.5) Over Indianapolis

This game features two teams that have lived to win in the 4th quarter. Vince and Peyton have been the definition of clutch these past six weeks. Only one team can win this week though, and you can bet it will be close. It’s ridiculous that the spread is this high even if the Colts are at home. The Colts haven’t beat the spread in three straight weeks, and this week doesn’t seem much different to me. The Titans are possibly the hottest team in the league, and the college option play with Vince and Johnson seems to have every analyst drooling worse than Peter Griffen’s co-worker at the toy factory. They have been playing some inspired and fun to watch football, so we’ll see how it plays out! I think this Titans squad has more talent to end the Colts winning streak than the Texans did.

Philadelphia (-5.5) Over Atlanta

I’m not sold on the Eagles, and usually don’t bet on them because they are so up and down. This week however, they are playing against a very banged up Atlanta team missing their glue on offense. Having Turner and Ryan sidelined makes this all that much easier to pick Philly. It will be interesting to see how the crowd reacts to Vick, but honestly, I don’t really care if they boo or cheer. If he was actually doing something in the offense, I could see a reason to make a big deal about it, but he’s not, so get over it MEDIA! It will just be a side note to the game. Desean Jackson will be out, but thankfully for the Eagles, they have plenty of other weapons to use in his absence.

New Orleans (-9.5) Over Washington

Zorn knows the end is near, looks like he's even tearing up!

The Miller Lite Can’t Make This Line High Enough Award, goes to, every opponent that the Skins play from here on out. As we proclaimed yesterday on Doin Work, Drew Brees is the front runner for MVP this season. Hardly a shock to many, but we had to debate it anyways! I don’t really foresee any possible way for the Redskins to keep this one close. The Saints are looking to clinch the NFC South with this victory, so it should give them enough incentive to NOT overlook this game even on a short week! After making Brady look like an average QB, just think what they will do to Campbell and this ugly offense.

St. Louis (+9) Over Chicago

Yes, I finally found a game I can take the points for the lambs. Actually, I’m not overly confident on this one, but since I have to stick with the road team theme, it’s very possible for them to cover. The Rams are a terrible team that might not win again for the rest of the year, but the Bears aren’t much better lately as they’ve completely abandoned the run, and have a defense that is a former shell of the dominant unit that it used to be. The loss of Lance Briggs won’t be helping them much. They’ve been giving up tons of points. The Rams have one bright spot, and that is Steven Jackson. He’s currently ranked 2nd in the league in rushing yards, despite the team playing from behind in most cases. It’s going to be tough for Chicago to compete if they don’t start giving Forte the ball some more! I know he hasn’t done much this year, but giving him only eight carries last week is ridiculous!

San Diego (-11.5) Over Cleveland

Rivers was in our MVP talks, mainly because the Chargers could be the hottest team in the league, but alas, he was denied from the top 5. This San Diego team is one that nobody wants to face right now, especially a team as bad as the Browns! LT is finally playing well, maybe it’s because of his kid he just had. He didn’t want his newborn to think that he was the reason for his decline into running back irrelevance. He’s been scoring like he used to lately as opposing teams forget to protect against the run in this pass happy offense. Their D has been stepping it up too, causing turnovers, and getting pressure on QB’s. They look like their normal December selves. It’s only a question now of when will Norv mess this up!


NFL Power Rankings Week 13

Since I was unable to make my gambling picks for the weekend being away for Turkey Day, I’ll have to settle with putting out my Power Rankings through Week 12. Without having the advantage of seeing how the big MNF matchup plays out I’ll just assume that the Saints win. Since everybody might be in the mood to slim down, after all that turkey I’m only doing the top 16 teams. No need to write about all the other teams that would just rather have an autograph from the guys lining up across from them.

#1 Indianapolis Colts (11-0)

It’s tough to not pick the Saints, but I think the resilience of this Colts team puts them over the top. They’ve now won five straight trailing going into the 4th quarter. If you aren’t convinced by that, they have won an amazing  19 in a row, and is the most behind the Patriots 21 straight.

#2 New Orleans Saints (10-0)

Drew Brees blah blah blah, he’s amazing blah blah blah. We’ve all heard it. The impressive part of this team is that they are the 5th ranked rushing team, and it’s not all because teams are playing the pass, it’s because they are actually very good at running the football. People always say how the Vikings are so balanced, this team is just as balanced as them!

#3 Minnesota Vikings (10-1)

Unfortunately I was completely wrong about Favre signing with the Vikings. I guess the season isn’t over yet, so there’s still hope he could suck it up still, but I’m not holding my breathe. The Silver Fox, as Jared Allen calls Favre, looks to keep it rolling all the way to a first round bye.

#4 New England Patriots (7-3)

Yes, Brady is as flaming as ever, but damn it I respect him… He’s got a better rhythm with his receivers than Bostonian sports fans have with being completely annoying. Their young defense has been a lot better recently, and they will need them to keep up the good play when it matters. Should be a good one Monday Night, and they will be tested every play with the Saints!

#5 San Diego Chargers (8-3)

Who would’ve thought the Chargers would be this good? Not me, and not most of their fans until recently. I thought they were the best in the AFC West, but not the kind of team that could win six straight. Somehow Norv has this team rolling, and they still don’t run that often, but it doesn’t seem to matter with Rivers throwing the ball 40 times a game. They might be the hottest team in the league.

#6 Cincinnati Bengals (8-3)

They didn’t dominate Cleveland like I thought they would, but at least they won which is better than they could say for playing against Oakland. The Cardiac Cats have proven they can come from behind, they can win ugly, and they play surprisingly good defense. They look to be a lock for the division title with the Steelers loss.

#7 Dallas Cowboys (8-3)

I don’t know why, but I just don’t think they as good worthy of their record. Of course there’s always a little extra drama with them, and Romo feels about as reliable as betting on or against the Raiders each week. I hope Dallas stumbles along the way, it always makes it more fun when they go into panic mode!

#8 Arizona Cardinals(7-4)

I can’t say I’ve been a big supporter or had any confidence in them against the spread this year, but they DO pull out wins, and look as explosive as ever with another new gadget in Beanie Wells. Even though they lost to the Titans they are still the division leaders, and should wrap up the west sooner than later. As long as they get old man Warner back in there, and Leinart doesn’t have to face Vince Young anymore, they will be fine.

#9 Philadelphia Eagles (7-4)

Mcnabb has won two close ones in a row! Maybe we can put to rest those talks of him being the worst closer in Philly and slide him to the #2 slot behind Lidge. They’ve had tons of injuries, but I think they’ll be able to pull through when everybody gets healthy. Let’s just hope for their sake that DeSean isn’t out for long after his concussion he suffered today.

#10 Green Bay Packers (7-4)

Rodgers IS having an amazing season. If it weren’t for him, their defense would probably outscore their offense! If they didn’t have to play Minnesota twice, they could probably be 9-2. Even missing key guys in their D they destroyed Detroit on Thanksgiving. They finally look like what everyone expected when the season opened, a playoff team.

#11 Denver Broncos (7-4)

They had a nice bounce back game against the Giants, but once again they will have to prove themselves after those four straight bad weeks. If they can somehow beat Indy in week 14, I’ll buy them as “for real” again. At the moment I don’t see them winning a wild card spot.

#12 Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)

They’ve been up and down as all title defenders usually are. I think Polamalu was a bigger loss than Big Ben. I’ve always been a big Dixon fan, so I was glad to see him get a chance to showcase his abilities in the NFL. Baltimore barely beat them tonight, and with a third string QB starting and Troy out this should have been much more lopsided, so even though the Ravens won the Steelers are still the better team.

#13 Baltimore Ravens (6-5)

I don’t really think the Ravens D is all that great anymore. Thankfully they have Ray Rice to help Flacco put up some points, which haven’t been as plentiful as they once were. It was a big win for them tonight, but I don’t see that translating into a wild card berth…

#14 Atlanta Falcons (6-5)

With Matt Ryan hurt, I’m not sure this team is really going to go anywhere. Even if they get back Turner, I still don’t see them turning it around. It’s been a disappointing season for them, and I don’t expect to see them in the playoffs.

#15 Tennessee Titans (5-6)

I actually think the Titans are better than the two above teams, but since they are under .500 it’s hard for me to justify putting them at 13. Vince has made me a believer, and also may have cemented himself with Mario Williams as the best players from that 2006 draft.

#16 Miami Dolphins (5-6)

They haven’t missed a beat since losing Ronnie Brown, and I for one thought they would. The Wildcat has been as effective as ever with Rickey looking like the dominant back we remember from his prime! I like this team, because they show up every week whether they have a good chance to win or not.


Doin Lines Week 9

Rachel_Watson Bucs Cheerleader

Last week was good to get out of the way! The teams that had been covering all season (Indy and New Orleans) finally let me down. Oh well, I’m sure they could care less that their undefeated streak vs. the spread was broken. I had a really hard time last week flip flopping on my choices all the way up to game day, and this week looks like I might be having more tough decisions again. I went 2-4 and now am 20-22-1 on the year. You know how there are people that smell so bad that you can almost taste their awfulness? That tasty smell are the teams that have a week 9 bye; Oakland, Cleveland, Buffalo and St. Louis. What makes this week even more interesting is that there are a lot of 10+ point spreads with the mentioned teams sitting it out! I guess that shows you the parity in the league this season. As usual the home teams are in bold.

Cincinnati (+3) Over Baltimore

Carson Palmer Chad Ochocinco

Carson's been with Chad long enough to understand him... Or not!

The cardiac cats always seem to be in very tight games whether they end up pulling out the W or having a heartbreaker. Baltimore played an inspired game last week blowing out the Broncos and showed that they are still the force that many people put as the best team in the league early on. Baltimore seems to have a hard time putting in efforts like that in back to back weeks, so I see this being a close one. Cincy showed some promising flashbacks from that very explosive offense they had a couple of years ago. I don’t see Palmer and Benson having that same kind of success they had against the Bears, because this Ravens unit is better. It does look like their offense is rejuvenated, and with the presence of a running game they can move the ball late to tire out the elders on the Baltimore D. Since the Bengals are at home it’s tough for me not to take the points, especially since I could see them winning outright!

Atlanta (-10) Over Washington

roddy white catchWashington is arguably the worst team in the league, and I doubt they have enough in them to pull out any kind of upset on the road or even have enough defense to keep this one close. Atlanta is coming off a short week, but who cares when you get to play a team that can’t seem to do anything right. Matt Ryan and Gonzo should shred the middle of this defense all day long. If Zorn was a brand, he should probably start looking for a bailout plan. It’s been so bad in DC that the fans aren’t even allowed to bring in signs that make fun of this pathetic team. If I wasted my money to go watch my team lose games, I would demand the right to bring whatever sign I want into the stadium! I forecast Atlanta going up big early, and heavy doses of Turner throughout the second half.

Announcers talking about Brett Favre on Minnesota’s Bye Week (-50) Over the amount of coverage the Rams receive for the rest of the season.

I mean this line is self explanatory, but I would seriously bet on this!  This would be exclude plays and mentions of the Rams defense getting shredded against a good team!

Green Bay (-10) Over Tampa Bay

Ah, we move onto the only team left that still could match the Lions amazing winless record. The Bucs haven’t really shown that they even want to be out there on Sundays, and especially don’t show up against any team that is deemed competent. I wonder if you’ll be able to hear Packers fans in the stands since there’s no way this one will be sold out. Tampa does have an amazing crop of cheerleaders though, so fortunately Rachel won’t be the only one we see this season! It could very well be a fantasy firework show from Aaron Rodgers who has put up big numbers against some of the best of defenses in the league, and going up against one of the worst I foresee a 5 TD day. I bet the Packers D might even out score the Bucs in this one.

New Orleans (-13) Over Carolina

Darren Sharper interceptionI was disappointed to see the Saints not cover last weekend. I guess it was the opposite of the week before where Sharper snagged a pick 6 to cover with two minutes to go. This weekend, Atlanta scored in the last two minutes to cut the lead to 8 which killed the beating the spread hope, oh those Vegas guys always get you back (shaking fist in the air)! It was easily the Miller Lite disappointing moment of my Monday. New Orleans has proved they are good at two things. Scoring points, and putting pressure on opposing offense and making them make mistakes. Carolina’s offense just happens to have Jake Delhomme, who is turning the ball over like Matsui getting RBI’s. NOT a good thing going on anytime they are trailing, so I see no reason to doubt that the Saints will have neutralized the Panthers running game by being up by 21 at the half and forcing them to put it in Delhomme’s hands.

San Francisco (-4) Over Tennessee

I don’t really like this pick that much, but since the Niners held Indy in check I don’t see any reason that they can’t take the Titans down during their miserable season. The SF offense has looked a little better as of late with Alex Smith taking over. The emergence of Crabtree last weekend coupled with Vernon Davis’s breakout year it has to mean only better things are in store for them! Having some threats will even open up some more room for Frank Gore to run, and maybe give him a little less wear and tear so he can stay in the lineup. Tennessee has officially fallen into the crappy team section, which confirmed my preseason thought that they were a fluke last year. A Kerry Collins led team is never the way to go! They finally figured that out and threw Vince in there, but it doesn’t seem to matter at this point. The only thing exciting about them is Chris Johnson.

Philadelphia (-3) Over Dallas

Frank Drebin Naked GunThis should be a good one. I think it all comes down to Romosexual and whether he shows up or not. The Cowboys are so reliant on him, it’s pathetic. Any game he plays bad in they never win. In the always unfriendly City of Brotherly Love, I have my doubts of him settling down in this one. Frank Drebin, I mean Wade Phillips is lucky anytime they are successful. He doesn’t put them in good positions to succeed, but just gets plain lucky. On the other side Philly looks about as good as they ever have. Team chunky soup was supposed to be explosive because of Westbrook and Vick, and Brian has been in and out and Vick is ineffective thus far. The good news is they haven’t needed them as they have weapons all over the field, in Desean, Maclin, and McCoy. Mcnabb is always on the verge of Romo type stinker game too, but it usually comes on the heals of an injury opposed to randomly popping up, except that Oakland one he got a pass since the offensive line forgot they were blocking that day.


Doin Lines Week 7

My favorite Rams Cheerleader

Kate is my favorite Rams Cheerleader

Hmm, maybe I’m not cut out to do this anymore for our blog. It seems like my record is going downhill faster than Southern California is getting pushed out of the playoffs. After going 2-4 last week, I’m under .500 for the first time on the season at 14-16. I missed three games by 2 or less points last week which really hurt, and made me realize once again that Vegas is way too good at making these lines! I guess it always goes in waves with football, so good news is I’m due for a winning weekend after two miserable ones. Anyways, here are my week 7 picks, and as always the home teams are in bold.

Indianapolis (-13) Over St. Louis

Hmmm, REAL tough one here! I think I’d give early MVP Peyton after a bye week 21 points over the Rams. I don’t think the Colts will overlook the Rams, the way the formerly undefeated Eagles overlooked the Raiders last weekend. It’s nearly impossible for teams to compete with the Colts when they have two weeks to prepare, so this should be a massacre. I doubt this game will be worth watching, but it’ll sure be worth betting on! If the Rams weren’t close to the league lead in penalties, I might give them a small shot to cover, but as of now I’m putting this one down as my lock of the week. On a side note, if you’re wondering why there’s a beautiful lady at the top the last two weeks, I’ve run out of interesting pictures of chalk lines, so I’ll be picking a hot cheerleader/fan of the losing team in my favorite pick of the week. So in case you were looking for something positive about Rams, at least there’s Kate…

I'd really like to see Cribbs on a good team.

I'd really like to see Cribbs on a good team.

Green Bay (-7) Over Cleveland

I won’t make the same mistake twice of underestimating the Green Bay offense against a crappy team, and the Browns are just that. Last weekend made me realize that the Packers are at least organized enough to destroy the lower class of the league. This has the same set up as last weeks Lions matchup, and unless the Browns get a few kickoff returns from Cribbs they might not even get on the scoreboard. If I were Cleveland, I’d lock Joshua up since he seems to be the only thing right about the Browns these days. Anyways, I think Aaron Rodgers will keep fantasy owners, Green Bay fans, and gamblers happy with a big game similar to last week. This unfortunately is another unwatchable game on the weekend slate, and it looks like were already going to go three for three on the snore-a-meter with my next pick.

New England (-14.5) Over Tampa Bay (London)

Brady finally put up those video game numbers that we’ve been waiting all season for.

Brendan Frasor's best role all-time

Brendan Frasor's best all-time role

It’s pretty obvious he wasn’t missing those deep routes with Randy this weekend, so I look for that connection to finally start getting some consistency that we once saw. The only thing that makes me hesitate picking the Pats in this one is that last years game in London, the field was a total mess, and produced a very low scoring snoozefest. I haven’t really read up on whether or not they’ve made adjustments to the field to handle this game, but you have to figure it’s at least improved. With Tampa giving up as many points as the other team wants to score, it’s impossible not to pick the Pats here. The Bucs are about as well rounded as Brendan Fraser in the beginning of Encino man. If it wasn’t in London, this might very well be blacked out.

San Francisco (+3) Over Houston

I guess I jumped on the San Francisco bandwagon sometime early this year, and can’t seem to get off. They’re 4-1 vs. the spread, so you have to take the points when they’re given to you. The bye week came at a perfect time for them as they came off a loss that they really didn’t show up for. I look for them to bounce back in the same way Atlanta did against them after their bye week. I’m sure Singletary had them working out extra hard on their so called break. It’s also the first time we’ll see Crabtree on the field. Whether he makes a difference or is even on the field much remains to be seen, but they did open up a roster spot for him this week. Either way it’s just nice knowing that Hammer is on his side, and is ready to help show him the path to blowing boatloads of cash quick! I’m not quite sure I understand the Texans this year. They lose to Jacksonville and Arizona, but beat Cincy and NY Jets. They are about as up and down my picks this season, and only play well every other week, I like this as their off week, and losing to the 49ers outright.

Oakland (+6) Over NY Jets

Mark Sanchez Mexican JetsAh, and now to my Raiders. What a win last weekend! I really didn’t see it coming. I guess I want to thank the media and Giants players for getting those wall posting comments up in the Raiders locker room. It was a great defensive effort, and we finally see the reason that they made the trade for Seymour. Although they are more successful against teams that pass like the Chargers and Eagles, but struggle against balanced teams like the Giants and Broncos. Even with NY having a fairly balaced attack with a very good running game, the Raiders did beat them last year, which makes me believe that they can do the same this year or at least keep it close at home. Even though JaMarcus didn’t give me any added confidence in the offense last weekend, they did prove that they can convert a few third downs to at least give their defense a solid rest. I have a feeling they will bring the pressure once again against a shaky Sanchez. Did you see him on the sideline last weekend? I thought he was going to cry. If he’s closing in on the crying point, the New York media is going to tear him up. Hopefully it won’t come to that for him. Anyways, I’m sure Raiders fans will make him feel right at home after he throws his first pick.

Matt Ryan Throwing FalconsAtlanta (+4) Over Dallas

HOTlanta has been impressive this year, and I feel are being slightly under rated by the line makers this weekend by giving Dallas more than a FG for their home field advantage. The Falcons only subpar performance of the season was against the Patriots, and since that stumble they’ve been rolling. Their defense is better than I thought it would be this year, and is carrying them nearly as much as their highly touted offense. I see them putting up some big numbers against an over rated Dallas team. Wade Phillips will sink this ship sooner rather than later, so brace yourself for a possible losing season in Dallas. I think having Wade as the coach automatically discounts whatever benefits that a bye week has for a team. I mean they barely escaped an awful Kansas City team, and they’re getting four points against a better team!?! I guess that’s what happens if you’re a hometeam in your billion dollar supermall stadium. I guess a lot of fans in Texas are betting on their team, and raising that line.

New Orleans (-6.5) Over Miami

As much as I boasted about New Orleans in my best of the undefeated teams post, I’m a little concerned about giving up 7 points to a road team. Yes they beat down the Giants in their friendly confides, but this team has to have a let down at some point this season. Miami can control the clock for long periods of time, and is bound to have a few new wildcat variations in store for this weekend coming off a bye week. I’d be a little higher on Miami and their two game winning streak if they had beat teams that were close to New Orleans caliber. The Jets win was impressive, but if I’m going to pick the Raiders to cover in that one, I have to pick the team I dubbed the best in the league. The Dolphins defense is an aging one, and Brees will outsmart them whether it’s checking to a run or bombing it down field.


Doin Lines Week 5

Football Field SidelineIt looks like we are starting to be able to tell between the contenders and the pretenders are already. The games actually seem much easier to pick than the past couple years. Even though last week was a little disappointing for my standards (2-3), but I wasn’t overly confident in very many games going into the week, which is why I probably only picked 5 games. Green Bay killed me when they went for the FG while down two scores. Why didn’t they go for a TD to cover that spread! I guess that should be no excuse, I expect better from myself! I’m still 16-7 on the season, so I have a little leeway at the moment in terms of a winning record on the season. I can honestly say I felt different last week watching the games, and suddenly realized that JaMarcus has single-handedly overthrown any hopes I had left that the Raiders could be competitive from week to week. Sure they might show up every third week and give someone a close game possibly even winning a couple, but in my eyes, the “caring” about the outcomes part of this season, is over. It’s scary that I was more excited about a pre-season Warriors game than my Raiders game in week 5! This should be good news from a betting perspective though! I’ll have minimal emotion attached to my picks. Here are my non-emotional LOCKS for week 5, and same as always, the home teams are in bold.

This should be on Mullet Galore's Homepage

This should be on Mullet Galore's Homepage.

Minnesota (-10) Over St. Louis

These teams are polar opposites of each other. I’m no fan of the Favre 24 hour network, but this team is very good, and can’t afford to take anyone lightly. It doesn’t seem like a team that would either. The Vikes and Rams records are mirror images of each other, literally (5-0, 0-5) I can’t write a backwards five but you get the idea. The Vikings are already the media’s darlings that are Super Bowl bound, and I have a hard time being convinced that they will let up this week. I actually can’t believe this spread isn’t over 14! Adrian Peterson should have a much better game compared to last weeks very un-AP like performance. The 49ers skunked the Rams last week 35-0, and I see this one ending close to that same score. This might be the easiest pick of the week. I’m more curious if Jared Allen is going to bring back that mullet! His hair looks long enough to do it again, bring it back Jared!

Buffalo (-6) Over Cleveland

Buffalo has been a little disappointing this season as I didn’t expect that heartbreaking opener to linger this long, but they’re not nearly as disappointing as the Browns. The Bills only have one way to go, and that’s up. They’re much too talented of a team to play this poorly as they showed last season that they were at least a team that could string together a few wins. I see them getting their swagger back against a scarily bad Browns team.

I’m not sure if Cleveland got worse because they made a terrible TV show on Fox with their town’s name, but they’re already looking to the future, and seem to have conceded this season. They already traded away Braylon this week, and seemed to get what they needed in some draft picks in the future. There is only one way I could possibly see the Browns being competitive in this one, which would have to include one spectacular game from Cribbs running some kicks back. That’s not all that likely since their defense doesn’t seem to like making the other team punt.

I doubt Patrick Willis is questioning much Singletary has to say on improvements to his game.

I doubt Patrick Willis is questioning much Singletary has to say on improvements to his game.

San Francisco (-2.5) Over Atlanta

Apparently the 49ers are more and more like Mike Singletary with each passing week. He seems to have the whole team believing in themselves, which can never be underestimated. They’re probably the least publicized 3-1 team that can only get better in four or five weeks when Crabtree gets all situated. If it wasn’t for that lucky/heroic Favre throw, they could be undefeated! They’ve covered or beat the spread for me every week this season, so this is no time to give up on them now with less than a field goal! Atlanta might be better than they’ve played so far, but their offense hasn’t been in sync all season. They are coming off a bye week, but I don’t see it being easy against a solid San Francisco defense. We might have to off on Michael Turner’s breakout week. Starter Shaun Hill is a surprising 7-0 at home for the 49ers which makes me more confident in this pick, and Vernon Davis is finally relevant in San Francisco. They have something amidst the foggy bay in an otherwise dead NFC West.

Carolina (-3.5) Over Washington

I’m not big on Carolina this year, and it’s pretty hard for me to pick this one since Delhomme gets booed as much as JaMarcus at home games. He’ll just have to hope their running game can help him cure his turnover habit he’s developed lately. They have a good O-Line, so I don’t see why they aren’t running more, oh yeah, they’re usually behind. I’m kind of picking them because I just have a hard time convincing myself that they aren’t a good team. They just had their bye week, so I’m sure they had plenty of time to prep for a crappy Redskins team. Also, there wasn’t any reports of Steve Smith punching a teamate, so that has to be a plus! The Skins have won two games, but they close games against the Rams and Bucs. One of their losses came to the Lions, so really the Redskins should have a winning record with the opponents they’ve faced so far. They just changed offensive coordinators, which is always a good sign for a team during the season. I see Carolina taking their frustrations out this week on a awful Washington team.

Wes Welker diving TD

Wes is more!

New England (-3) Over Denver

Much has been made over the Broncos sparkling record of 3-0, but I’m still not a believer. They’re much hyped defense hasn’t really faced anyone with a reputable offense. I wouldn’t even really count Dallas as a great offense at this point. I don’t know what it is, but I just can’t take the Broncos too serious yet. I think the Patriots are going to be their first real test. I thought Brady has looked like he’s coming back to his old form, and with Wes Welker being inserted back into the lineup we may see the offensive fireworks once again. Moss will be able to stop running the short routes and head upfield again! I see them getting rolling on offense again. I think Orton will have to prove himself this week as the Pats run defense is pretty solid. He’s got some playmakers in the wide receiver corp, but will he have enough time to find them against the new Patriots blitzing style defense?

Jacksonville (+1.5) Over Seattle

Don’t ask me why I’m breaking my golden rule of not betting on two crappy teams, because I don’t think I really have that answer at the moment. I guess I just have to pick the Jags, because they really took it to the Titans last week, and showed that that can be a good team at times. The Seahawks may or may not have Hasselbeck in at QB, but at this point does it really matter? Their whole offensive line is hurt, so even if he is in there with hurt ribs, I don’t see him being in there for too long. They honestly need to show me some sign of life against a team not named the Rams for me to pick them at any point this season. If Garrard had anyone besides MJD to pass to, I’d probably parlay this pick with the Minnesota game.

Maybe having the same QB every week can make him keep the balls from falling to the ground

Maybe having the same QB every week can make him keep the balls from falling to the ground.

New York Jets (-1.5) Over Miami

The big question in this game is: can the wild cat beat the 4th ranked defense in the league? The Rexecutioners have allowed the fewest yards in the league, and held the Madden style Saints to 10 points if it weren’t for Sanchez’s two mistakes this would have been a very close game. Sanchez will have to shoulder the offensive load with his new buddy Braylon, and critics are eager to see if he can bounce back from a bad start in Hispanic Heritage Month. The Jets have won their last three games in Miami, so I don’t see history changing now that Miami is in the Chad Henne phase of the franchise.


Doin Lines Week 1

Chalk linesThroughout the season I will be try to predict the outcomes of the NFL spreads. I used to gamble quite a bit, and had good and bad times with it. I think I would’ve done better if I hadn’t gone for so many parlays, but that makes it more exciting. Anyways, I’ve never kept track over a whole season, so this should be interesting. The home teams are in bold, and the first team listed is the favorite. I will also be giving a confidence rating on my picks with a scale of 1-5. A one would be “I like me betting on the Raiders, because they’re my favorite team”, and a 5 would be “Parlay this one with any other 5 on the board” Without further ado here is the predictions.

Pittsburgh (-6) Tennessee

3, It’s going to be tough for everyone going to Pittsburgh, but Tennessee proved last season that they are for real with their 12-4 mark, but are a fairly big underdog against the Steelers. The Titans have pretty much the same look as last year minus Haynesworth. They should be ready to at least cover in this one, since I feel like this line should be around -3. Plus, I have a feeling the Titans will want to pull out everything they have to get a win off the newly crowned champs.

Atlanta (-4) Miami

4, I felt like the Dolphins were huge overachievers last season. They wouldMichael Turner stiff arm Falcons probably do fine in the AFC West, but in their division I think it’ll be a long tough road for them. Their first game is going to be in hostile territory against a team looking to see improvement through acquisitions and growth from their young QB. The Falcons should cover this spread with all the offensive firepower they have.

Baltimore (-13) Kansas City

2, It’s always hard to tell how crappy a team is going to be. I doubt that KC will win this, but can you really give a guy named Flacco enough confidence in covering a two TD spread? I didn’t think so. KC will kill a few bettors at the end of this game scoring some points in garbage time. They seemed to do that well last year even with Thigpen.

Philadelphia (-1.5) Carolina

2, this is a tough one. I don’t like it when the home team isn’t favored, but in this one I can’t argue. Carolina’s often stalling offense is always a roller coaster that I wouldn’t bet a replica ring on.Donovan Mcnabb McNabb has two weeks to prove he is the undisputed starter, so I like Philly taking this one either by a good offensive effort or Jake Delhomme choking it away.

Cincinnati (-4.5) Denver

3, With all the drama in Denver this off-season it’s hard to tell what is going to come out of the once proud franchise. Saying they are dysfunctional is an understatement, but saying Cincinatti hasn’t had it’s problems isn’t fair either. I don’t like any team coming off as many problems and changes as Denver had this off-season, and they won’t figure it out until it’s too late.

Minnesota (-4) Cleveland

5, Like I said before I don’t like road teams being favored, but I really can’t bet on a franchise that just named it’s starter today, Quinn. Cleveland didn’t make any upgrades and sorely needed to over the off-season. Minnesota should run away with this one. We could even see a chunk of playing time for Tavaris or a tryout from Anderson if Quinn struggles…

Houston (-4.5) NY Jets

4, it’s Mark Sanchez’s first start as a pro, and I have a feeling that he’s going to get acquainted with Mario Williams early and often.Mario Williams If the Jets had a solid running game or receivers that didn’t disappear, I’d give them a chance. Schaub is expected to go today, so as long as that stays the same I’m taking the Texans.

Indianapolis (-7) Jacksonville

3, I think it would be impossible to pick anyone but Indy at home. Jacksonville usually gives them a good fight, but in a home opener it’s going to be hard for the Jaguars to pull it out especially with their disappointing 5 win campaign last season. I think the Colts will start the season as they usually do undefeated with a convincing win.

New Orleans (-13) Detroit

5, The question is when will the Saints be up by 13? First half? First quarter? Watch the bottom line or your stat tracker to see just how many they can put up. I don’t see the Lions 20 game losing streak ending in week 1 especially in a tough environment.

Dallas (-6) Tampa Bay

4, Tampa Bay is in shambles after barely missing the playoffs last year. They are doing an overhaul with minimal talent, so it’s pretty hard not to like the Cowboys in this one. Dallas will probably run a little more smoothly with TO out of the way. Look for the Buccaneers fans to be one of the blackout teams soon.

Arizona (-6.5) San Francisco

2, I really don’t know what to expect from this one. I’ll loosely pick the Niners to cover.Kurt Warner Cardinals old Arizona had an incredible season last year, but I don’t see lightning striking twice. It was kind of funny watching Kurt Warner fall to late rounds in nearly all my fantasy drafts. That has to say something about their chances.

NY Giants (-6.5) Washington

2, it seems like the Giants start off strong and slowly fade away as the season wears on. If Eli had one good receiver, I’d probably bump up my confidence rating, but in this rivalry game it’s always tough to give a team nearly a TD. Washington just ends up being disappointing every season, and this year doesn’t look much brighter, as I see the Giants taking this one.

Seattle (-8.5) St. Louis

3, One rule I have is never to bet on crappy teams, because you never know what you’ll get. Seattle vs. St. Louis definitely fits that mold, and I can’t really give more than a TD to any team I deem crappy. St. Louis should make this competitive while they cover the spread.

Green Bay (-3.5) Chicago

4, I like the way the Packers look this year.Greg Jennings Packers Rodgers has a lot of guys to throw to, and proved that he is going to be a good starter for years to come. The Bears have issues on defense especially against the passing game. I like the Pack to set the division tone with a convincing win.

New England (-11) Buffalo

4, If Brady is indeed back to 07′ form, we could see the stats that only a QB on Madden puts up. I don’t really see the impact of TO on the field overshadowing the gaping hole left by Lynch in the backfield. I think Buffalo is a decent team, but they are no match for the Pats in Foxboro on opening night. There could be two Monday night blowouts.

San Diego (-9.5) Oakland

2, it’s never easy picking against your team especially when they are giving a TD plus, but the Raiders are starting to mirror the Timberwolves as their franchise spirals out of control. They have talent, but no direction. On a side note, I hope Gruden calls this game on ESPN, it would be nice to hear what he has to say about his former employer! Plus I caught him during a pre-season game and he was pretty funny.


Can the NFL Survive a Blow From the Recession?

Roy Williams Cowboys

I wrote my plea for the NFL to change the Blackout rule, because it’s robbing the fans of seeing the home teams play, and further detaches the fair weather fans and people that happen to move to a new area that features a franchise. The NFL is holding it’s cards close as they insist they aren’t in bad shape financially, and are recession proof. A report from Forbes came out today that showed the NFL was telling a half truth, as they are okay, but the future is fairly uncertain. Their $1 billion in equity plus debt average among the teams has not changed. The bad part of the report was that eight franchises declined in value for the first time in 10 years! Not surprisingly my Raiders were the worst on the list decreasing 7% from last season, and as of now the Lions are even worth more than them. There were good playoff teams on the list that declined as well including the Colts(-5%), Dolphins(-3%), and Falcons (-2%). The factors that the findings were derived from were; the decline in people who could afford to purchase or invest a franchise, lowered revenues and lower revenue expectations, and the tightened credit markets.

The all powerful NFL isn’t too worried that a quarter of their franchises that have dropped in value as they get huge revenues in the $7 ½ billion range for all their assets. Their TV deals with ESPN, NBC, CBS, FOX, and Sunday Ticket on DirecTV alone give teams a whopping $116 million per year. Facing obvious challenges in the near future the NFL extended their TV contracts recently for two more years through 2013. The drawback to the agreement was that there was a very low 2% increase per season. The real problem for the NFL looks to be the new collective bargaining agreement that was supposed to go through 2012, but the owners voted unanimously to opt out at the conclusion of the 2010 season. Many owners have complained that they’ve had to spend over half their revenues to pay the players, and when there are jackass’s like Michael Crabtree out there squabbling over his contract it all becomes clear why their gripes are justified. Who knows by the time Crabtree gets a contract there could be a lockout, one more bad reason for players to holdout. I still can’t fathom how players are worth millions before they take one snap as a pro. Next year for the first time since 1993, the NFL will play without a salary cap.funny money This sounds like an instant lockout by the owners, if this is allowed to happen. I doubt too many owners will be thrilled to compete for players against teams that turn the most profit like the Redskins ($90 million), Patriots ($70 million), and Buccaneers ($68 million). I guess Tampa might fall off this list as they are due to be one of the teams this season that could not sell a home game out, and fall under the retarded blackout rule. They once had a 100,000 person waiting list to get season tickets, but those days are long gone as they hope to fill up the stadium for eight weeks out of the year.

We will see what happens, but you can bet that the NFL isn’t ready for what is coming. I have a feeling that they are under estimating their worst case scenario, and shouldn’t be telling the public that everything is all good and happy times. Goodell is good at doing the PR through as his sleazy car salesman act has fooled me from time to time. I hope it doesn’t stoop to the NBA’s depths, which I wrote about a couple months back. If teams are close to bankruptcy, and are having to borrow money I’ll be the first to say I told you so. I know with the recession comes cutbacks by everyone feeling the wrath of the mighty economy, and that translates to a lot more empty seats, which keeps snowballing as a lot less concessions are being bought. I’m sure that in these unforgiving times less people are willing to pony up the money for that ridiculous DirecTV Sunday Ticket package. If people can’t afford tickets, then we can’t even watch our favorite teams on TV from the blackouts. Looks like we’ll have to suffer as we watch the Giants, Jets, Patriots, Redskins, and Cowboys during our blacked out games. I’m already depressed thinking about having to watch Romo and Eli more than they were regularly scheduled!