Tag Archives: week 7

Doin Lines Week 7

Chappy: It took six weeks, but I finally had a crappy one. Hopefully this dream start to the season with my picks isn’t just a footnote on the way to an average year. It was nice to have my one win be the Raiders game. I’ll take a 1-3-1 every week if the Raiders are the sole win!

By:  Feels good to be back on the winning side after going 3-1 last week.  I feel the last two or three weeks have had the toughest lines I can remember.  After finally seeing this week’s lines, I can breathe a sigh of relief.  These seem doable.  With that said, I only pick the locks baby … on to the lines ~

Last week: By (3-1) Chap (1-3-1)

Overall: By (13-11) Chap (16-10-3)

Chicago vs. Tampa Bay (+1)

Chappy picks Tampa Bay (+1). It’s tough to feel good about picking a game in London, especially with two erractic teams that seem hard to figure out where exactly they are through six weeks of the season. The Tampa win over New Orleans impressed me to the point that I’m going to pick them. Even without Blount in the lineup they amassed 117 yards rushing. If Freeman can stay patient and dink and dunk his way down the field without making any interceptions this is a lock. Well, unless they for some strange reason decide to kick to Hester.

Washington  @ Carolina (-2.5)

By picks Camolina (-2.5).  Carolina ran into a determined Atlanta team last week, but still kept it close late until the Falcons pulled away by 14.  Amazingly, that’s exactly how much I said the Dirty Birds would win by.  The return of Bystradamus?  Before I get carried away, let’s look at this week’s match up for the Panthers, and why this is a lock for them to cover.  First and foremost, Cam Newton.  Second, Mike Shanahan, or in the fantasy world, Lucifer, has been carouseling running backs in the lineup all season for the Skins.  It’s a disaster back there.  Now, albeit inevitably, it’s the quarterbacks’ turn.  John Beck won’t throw as many picks as Rex “Gross, Man” but he’ll win the same amount of games for you this season.  Which is close to nothing moving forward.  I know Washington got off to a good start, but unlike the Bills, we knew it would fall apart for them.  Camolina at home against a team in full disarray, I got to like my chances with the Panthers.

Chappy picks Carolina (-2.5).  I expected more from Carolina last weekend against the Falcons, but I think the Falcons were out to prove that they are still contenders, so Cam alone wouldn’t be enough stop them. This weekend he takes on a very solid Washington defense, the only problem for Washington is they’re starting John Beck. Not that I liked Grossman or anything, but he seemed like a better option to me even with his ugly 4 int performance. At the beginning of the year I didn’t think I’d be picking Carolina in any games, but they truly are a different team than last year…

Denver @ Miami (-1)

Chappy picks Miami (-1). This game wouldn’t be hyped at all if it wasn’t Tebow’s first start of the season and his return to Florida, but both those things are happening so it’s all of a sudden a big game. I actually thought the Dolphins looked good for a half against the Jets, and you know Marshall is going to get fired up to play his old team trying to go into monster mode as often as possible. If there’s one weakness in Denver’s defense, it’s their ability to stop the run. Consequently that’s one of the only things Miami does well. Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas should have big games on their way to a win. Tebow might do well, but I don’t see them winning.

By picks Tebow (+1).  I’m waiting for Brandon Marshall to say he’s trying to get thrown out of this game during warm ups in attempt to show how much passion he has playing for a winless team.  If that happens, Denver’s the sexy pick all the way.  Wait, Timmy Tebow’s starting!?!?  Then Denver is already the sexy pick!  All jokes aside, I’ve been a huge Tebow fan for two reasons:  One, he’s a great leader, and his actions speak louder than his words.  Two, he’s the second sports legend to come out of the Philippines!  (Yeah, I claim him as Filipino).  But, when it’s all said and done, Tebow knows how to win.  Screw the mechanics, screw the intangibles, this guy gets the job done.  Check his track record.  Denver can afford him this opportunity, and he will stand and deliver.  At least this week.  Against a winless team.

Atlanta @ Detroit (-4)

By picks Detroit (-4).  I think I’m the only one who thinks the Jim Harbaugh/Jim Schwartz fiasco was entirely blown out of proportion.  And I’m probably the only San Francisco fan that thinks Harbaugh gave a douche of a handshake.  Yeah Schwartz acted like a little sissy brat, but there’s a lot of pride involved in football, and you don’t let another man belittle you like that.  With all that said, Harbaugh in the 3rd.  Now back to Detroit.  They must be pissed, not only to get their first loss last week, but in the matter in which they received it.  I’m weary of picking them here with the status of Jahvid Best still in the air, but I think the spread offense, as well as Stafford to Megatron is still enough to propel the Lions at home versus the Falcons.  It’s hard to make a read on this Atlanta team this season, the verdict is still out on them.  But I don’t trust them on the road this season one bit.  Detroit by 6.

Pittsburgh @ Arizona (+4)

Chappy picks Pittsburgh (-4). The Steelers are getting a little old, but their not old to the point where they’ll lose to the Cardinals. Missing Jerome Harrison due to a tumor might hurt their defense a little, but then again you don’t need a lot to beat this team. The Steelers either blow a team out or play down to their competition. I feel like they’ll blow out AZ the same way they did in the Super Bowl two years back. Mike Wallace is a little dinged up, but with Pittsburgh finally getting the running game going, it probably doesn’t matter.

Kansas City @ Oakland (-4.5)

By picks Oakland (-4.5).  Oakland’s a team on the rise, and their about to get better with the addition of Carson Palmer.  Can you imagine Palmer clicking with all his weapons with the speed and talent this Raiders offense has?  I really think San Diego’s reign over the AFC West is in jeopardy, like right now.  Hue Jackson has proven why the Raiders looked no further than within when hiring a replacement for Tom Cable.  His play calling has been spot on this season, and his attitude is refreshing.  It’s nice to see both Bay Area teams succeeding this year.  As far as this week’s match up, what’s not to like with the Silver & Black?  They’re home, they’re hot, they’ve got a real threat at quarterback, an excellent coach, game breakers on offense and they’re playing the Chiefs.  To me, -5 sounds like a trap game line, but I’m confident Oakland won’t disappoint.

Chappy picks Oakland (-4.5). I think I’m already a little tired of hearing about whether Palmer should or shouldn’t start. Who gives us a better chance to win? I’d say Carson after one week of practice over Boller playing backup for the season. We always waste our timeouts anyways, so if he isn’t sure on a play use one! And really how hard is it going to be for him to turn around and hand off the ball to McFadden and Bush? Seems like an easy game plan to me without putting a ton of pressure on him. On the other side, the Chiefs have rattled off two straight wins, but they were against the Colts and Vikings, who we all know are about as bad as it gets in opponents. I’m somewhat worried about this Chiefs squad, mainly because they’re coming off the bye week. Then again the Raiders will probably give them a lot of new looks with their new QB at the helm.

Baltimore @ Jacksonville (+8)

Chappy picks Baltimore (-8). I think I’d still pick Baltimore if the spread was 14. Baltimore is possibly the team to beat in the AFC, and have put up 33 per game during their 3 game win streak. Conversely Jacksonville has only scored 11 points per game during their five game losing streak. This is probably THE easiest pick of the week. Ride with it to some money!!

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Doin Lines Week 7

A so-so week for me. My picks have felt like Gary Busey looks.  I swear at halftime of every game this weekend I thought I was a lock to win each pick, but unfortunately a lot of my teams were outscored in the second half just to disappoint me. At least I pulled out a .500 week for the first time in a few weeks, and am moving in the right direction. Maybe I should just be betting on the first half scores!

I had a “whatever” type weekend finishing 2-3-1.  Any momentum or confidence I had from busting out the whooping sticks two weeks ago has faded.  For some reason, all I can think about after writing that, is a line from Eminem’s Lose Yourself track, “Snap back to reality, OH, there goes gravity …”  Anyway, Chappy and I both picked Baltimore over New England last week, and of course, both of us ended up on the short end of the stick with that selection.  I’ll try not to peek over at who Chaps got this week for fear of an automatic loss.  On a side note, picking teams this year has been terrible for me, I feel like a jester trying to entertain a King, only to fail and hear him say, “FEED HIM TO THE LINES!

(Was that funny?)

Week 7 (Chappy 2-2-2, By 1-3-2) Overall (Chappy 12-20-3, By 12-16-3)

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Miami

Chappy picks Pittsburgh (-3), Will the Steelers defense be as good with James Harrison pulling up on hits because he’s scared of a fine? I doubt it! The Steelers stop teams that are good at running holding opposing offenses to only 63 yards a game on the ground. If the Dolphins have a shot in this one it will be because Bess and Marshall have big games. This is the first time in a couple of years that the whole Steelers defense is healthy, and they’ve shown what they can do when they are healthy. They usually fare well in these physical match ups. I think Ben shook off all the rust he may or may not have had against the lowly Browns last week, and could have a big game if they keep Cameron Wake out of his face. The Dolphins were blown out at home against the Jets and Patriots, making me think the Steelers should do the same…

By picks Pittsburgh (-3).  What’s one way to steer controversy away from Ben Roethlisberger?  How about steering it towards James Harrison?  That’ll work.  Ben Roethlisberger, in his return from suspension, wasn’t even mentioned last week!  All the attention went to the league officials and James Harrison.  Everybody saw the steep fine the league struck Harrison with for his “illegal” hit, then everybody witnessed Harrison “contemplate” retirement after, which resulted in everybody NOT believing in him , which followed by Harrison coming back to no one’s surprise, after his day off.  Back to the games.  As good as Pittsburgh has been these past few weeks, it’s pretty scary to see how they’ll look once Big Ben gets back into rhythm.  Pittsburgh may be my favorite to win the Super Bowl as of now.  I know Miami is coming off a big win against Green Bay, but nothing can prepare them for the beating they’re going to get from Team USA.  The United Steelers of America.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Harrison responds by trying to hit someone even harder than he did Masshisname?  Or his boy, Cribbs.  Pittsburgh big.

Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Atlanta

Chappy picks Atlanta (-3.5), Carson Palmer has been good at one thing this year, and that’s turning it over at the worst possible times, like in the redzone. Matt Ryan has been just as up and down, but his team is pulling out victories. For Palmer it doesn’t really matter who his receivers are when he’s throwing it to the opposing team. We might see Michael Turner re-emerge against the leagues 19th ranked rush defense. If Atlanta is for real, they need to beat this Bengals team convincingly, especially since they can’t really find their footing so far this year.

By picks Atlanta (-3). Atlanta ran into a road block last week in Philadelphia, but that doesn’t stop me from believing the Falcons are the top team in the NFC South.  I think we know what we’re getting from Matt Ryan, a star that’s just on the brink of stardom, but the inconsistencies of Michael Turner and the Falcons running game has to improve for Atlanta to be truly considered a threat to dethrone the Saints as champs.  The Bengals’ season has been filled with ups and downs, but surprisingly, there isn’t much controversy coming out Cincinnati considering who their star receivers are.  But, with that said, both Chad OchoCinco and Carson Palmer have performed mediocre at best, and for the Bengals to be competitive, their two main stays must step up their game.  I don’t see that happening at Atlanta this week, and I feel a three-point spread is too little.  Falcons by 13.

Washington (+3) @ Chicago

Chappy picks Washington (+3), I can’t really stand watching either of these teams play. I guess I kinda like McNabb, but after that not a whole lot of love for anyone else. The Bears are piling up the injuries on defense, and it looks like McNabb could take advantage of that in this one. After starting 3-0 the Bears are starting to look like who we originally thought they were, a crappy team. I sort of feel bad for Cutler these past few weeks. He gets pounded every time he drops back. The Bears gave up 35 sacks in 2009. So far they’ve given up 27 sacks in six games for 2010. With the defense struggling, and the offense moving backwards half the time, I’ll take the points and Washington in this one. Besides McNabb is from Chicago, so I’m sure he’ll get some home-made chunky soup to enhance his superpowers.

Buffalo (+13) @ Baltimore

Chappy picks Baltimore (-13), the Bills are probably the worst team in the league. They could threaten the Lions 0-16 record, and looking at their schedule they really only have three more chances to win playing Cleveland, Detroit, and I’ll throw in the Jets since they play them week 17 when they will likely be resting their starters. I wonder if there’s a reverse of the 72 Dolphins, where the Lions would pop the champagne when someone matches their record so they aren’t alone in being remembered as the worst teams of all time?

San Francisco @ Carolina +3

By picks San Francisco (-3). San Francisco is coming off their biggest win of the season, their only win.  I’m normally hard on the 49ers, and if it were any other opponent they were facing this weak aside from Carolina, I’d probably go with them.  But Carolina might be one of the worst teams in the NFL, if not “the” worse.  Not sure why John Fox elected to go back with Matt Moore at QB, he has shown he isn’t capable of driving a team down field.  I would have stuck with Jimmy Clausen and start his development process early.  Regardless of who Carolina throws behind center, they’re incapable of getting the job done, similar to the 49ers.  At least the 49ers have Frank Gore and a tremendous defense.  49ers cover, and go on a winning streak of two.

Oakland (+8.5) @ Denver

Chappy picks Oakland (+8.5), The Raiders have no passing game, the Broncos have no running game. Which one wins? Campbell threw for 87 yards and two interceptions last week against SF, and showed shades Jamarcus all game long. I’m not sure why I’m picking the Raiders when I’m certain Gradkowski isn’t going to be back in the lineup. As it is right now his shoulder is still too hurt to go. I think we’ll probably lose this week, but since we beat the Broncos last year in Denver with Jamarcus as our QB I feel like they can at least cover. Orton is somehow a top QB in the league right now, and with no running game hopefully the Raiders can get some pressure on him. This is my least confident pick of the week, but that being said, it’s probably the only game I’ll pick correct!

New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas

Chappy picks NYG (+3), How is a 1-4 team a three-point favorite over a 4-2 team? Tough question to answer… Wade Phillips might be coaching for his job, but that doesn’t mean they should be laying points? I think this is an easy pick the way the Giants have looked over the last few weeks. I thought they’d be a solid team this year, and they are finally showing that they are. I like their pass rush to disrupt anything that Romo gets going. When you’re pretty confident of a team winning outright, they you should definitely take the points!

Minnesota @ Green Bay -2.5

By picks Green Bay (-2.5). Brett Favre has had the worse luck in terms of the NFL probing on his “inappropriate s ext messages” going public.  He gets to go back to Green Bay now, where the Packers’ faithful should and will be heckling the crap out of him.  I expect some great signs at Lambeau.  With that said, the Vikings are not the same team they were last season, and despite Green Bay struggling as of late, the Packers should be more than capable of finally winning one in the Favre vs. Rodgers era.  I am concerned with one thing in this match up … Randy Moss.  It’s definitely going to be fun to watch Charles Woodson and Randy Moss go at it for four quarters, but Moss tends to have huge, huge games at Lambeau.  I still think the Packers have enough to win, and being that the spread is 2.5, I think the Pack by a field goal is fitting.


Doin Lines Week 7

My favorite Rams Cheerleader

Kate is my favorite Rams Cheerleader

Hmm, maybe I’m not cut out to do this anymore for our blog. It seems like my record is going downhill faster than Southern California is getting pushed out of the playoffs. After going 2-4 last week, I’m under .500 for the first time on the season at 14-16. I missed three games by 2 or less points last week which really hurt, and made me realize once again that Vegas is way too good at making these lines! I guess it always goes in waves with football, so good news is I’m due for a winning weekend after two miserable ones. Anyways, here are my week 7 picks, and as always the home teams are in bold.

Indianapolis (-13) Over St. Louis

Hmmm, REAL tough one here! I think I’d give early MVP Peyton after a bye week 21 points over the Rams. I don’t think the Colts will overlook the Rams, the way the formerly undefeated Eagles overlooked the Raiders last weekend. It’s nearly impossible for teams to compete with the Colts when they have two weeks to prepare, so this should be a massacre. I doubt this game will be worth watching, but it’ll sure be worth betting on! If the Rams weren’t close to the league lead in penalties, I might give them a small shot to cover, but as of now I’m putting this one down as my lock of the week. On a side note, if you’re wondering why there’s a beautiful lady at the top the last two weeks, I’ve run out of interesting pictures of chalk lines, so I’ll be picking a hot cheerleader/fan of the losing team in my favorite pick of the week. So in case you were looking for something positive about Rams, at least there’s Kate…

I'd really like to see Cribbs on a good team.

I'd really like to see Cribbs on a good team.

Green Bay (-7) Over Cleveland

I won’t make the same mistake twice of underestimating the Green Bay offense against a crappy team, and the Browns are just that. Last weekend made me realize that the Packers are at least organized enough to destroy the lower class of the league. This has the same set up as last weeks Lions matchup, and unless the Browns get a few kickoff returns from Cribbs they might not even get on the scoreboard. If I were Cleveland, I’d lock Joshua up since he seems to be the only thing right about the Browns these days. Anyways, I think Aaron Rodgers will keep fantasy owners, Green Bay fans, and gamblers happy with a big game similar to last week. This unfortunately is another unwatchable game on the weekend slate, and it looks like were already going to go three for three on the snore-a-meter with my next pick.

New England (-14.5) Over Tampa Bay (London)

Brady finally put up those video game numbers that we’ve been waiting all season for.

Brendan Frasor's best role all-time

Brendan Frasor's best all-time role

It’s pretty obvious he wasn’t missing those deep routes with Randy this weekend, so I look for that connection to finally start getting some consistency that we once saw. The only thing that makes me hesitate picking the Pats in this one is that last years game in London, the field was a total mess, and produced a very low scoring snoozefest. I haven’t really read up on whether or not they’ve made adjustments to the field to handle this game, but you have to figure it’s at least improved. With Tampa giving up as many points as the other team wants to score, it’s impossible not to pick the Pats here. The Bucs are about as well rounded as Brendan Fraser in the beginning of Encino man. If it wasn’t in London, this might very well be blacked out.

San Francisco (+3) Over Houston

I guess I jumped on the San Francisco bandwagon sometime early this year, and can’t seem to get off. They’re 4-1 vs. the spread, so you have to take the points when they’re given to you. The bye week came at a perfect time for them as they came off a loss that they really didn’t show up for. I look for them to bounce back in the same way Atlanta did against them after their bye week. I’m sure Singletary had them working out extra hard on their so called break. It’s also the first time we’ll see Crabtree on the field. Whether he makes a difference or is even on the field much remains to be seen, but they did open up a roster spot for him this week. Either way it’s just nice knowing that Hammer is on his side, and is ready to help show him the path to blowing boatloads of cash quick! I’m not quite sure I understand the Texans this year. They lose to Jacksonville and Arizona, but beat Cincy and NY Jets. They are about as up and down my picks this season, and only play well every other week, I like this as their off week, and losing to the 49ers outright.

Oakland (+6) Over NY Jets

Mark Sanchez Mexican JetsAh, and now to my Raiders. What a win last weekend! I really didn’t see it coming. I guess I want to thank the media and Giants players for getting those wall posting comments up in the Raiders locker room. It was a great defensive effort, and we finally see the reason that they made the trade for Seymour. Although they are more successful against teams that pass like the Chargers and Eagles, but struggle against balanced teams like the Giants and Broncos. Even with NY having a fairly balaced attack with a very good running game, the Raiders did beat them last year, which makes me believe that they can do the same this year or at least keep it close at home. Even though JaMarcus didn’t give me any added confidence in the offense last weekend, they did prove that they can convert a few third downs to at least give their defense a solid rest. I have a feeling they will bring the pressure once again against a shaky Sanchez. Did you see him on the sideline last weekend? I thought he was going to cry. If he’s closing in on the crying point, the New York media is going to tear him up. Hopefully it won’t come to that for him. Anyways, I’m sure Raiders fans will make him feel right at home after he throws his first pick.

Matt Ryan Throwing FalconsAtlanta (+4) Over Dallas

HOTlanta has been impressive this year, and I feel are being slightly under rated by the line makers this weekend by giving Dallas more than a FG for their home field advantage. The Falcons only subpar performance of the season was against the Patriots, and since that stumble they’ve been rolling. Their defense is better than I thought it would be this year, and is carrying them nearly as much as their highly touted offense. I see them putting up some big numbers against an over rated Dallas team. Wade Phillips will sink this ship sooner rather than later, so brace yourself for a possible losing season in Dallas. I think having Wade as the coach automatically discounts whatever benefits that a bye week has for a team. I mean they barely escaped an awful Kansas City team, and they’re getting four points against a better team!?! I guess that’s what happens if you’re a hometeam in your billion dollar supermall stadium. I guess a lot of fans in Texas are betting on their team, and raising that line.

New Orleans (-6.5) Over Miami

As much as I boasted about New Orleans in my best of the undefeated teams post, I’m a little concerned about giving up 7 points to a road team. Yes they beat down the Giants in their friendly confides, but this team has to have a let down at some point this season. Miami can control the clock for long periods of time, and is bound to have a few new wildcat variations in store for this weekend coming off a bye week. I’d be a little higher on Miami and their two game winning streak if they had beat teams that were close to New Orleans caliber. The Jets win was impressive, but if I’m going to pick the Raiders to cover in that one, I have to pick the team I dubbed the best in the league. The Dolphins defense is an aging one, and Brees will outsmart them whether it’s checking to a run or bombing it down field.