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Doin Championship Lines

Chappy: You can’t get much better football than the game the Saints-49ers played last weekend. Through the craziness at the end of that game I almost forgot I even won money on my bet!

By:  Broncos/Steelers, Niners/Saints!?  What more could you ask for from January football!?  It’s an exciting time to be a 49ers fan, and I’m crossing my finger Eli Manning reverts back to his overrated self for one game.  Let’s go Niners!

Last week: Chap (2-2) By (2-2)

Playoffs: Chap (3-5) By (4-4)

Regular Season: Chap (50-35-4) By (27-20)

Baltimore @ New England (-7)

Chappy picks Baltimore (+7). You didn’t think a Raiders fan would actually pick the Pats did you? I can’t believe how much they’re showing the damn Walter Coleman overturned tuck rule game on ESPN lately, so very depressing… Anyways, it’s hard to feel overly confident picking the team that has players questioning their own QB, but I feel like the Ravens can hang with the Patriots who haven’t beaten a team with a winning record all season, well unless you count the 9-9 Broncos as a winning team. That stat alone makes me feel like Baltimore will cover the spread. The Pats defense isn’t as good as it showed last weekend, and Baltimore’s offense will do better against them than they did against Houston’s top 5 defense. Another thing that makes me feel like Baltimore will cover is Brady usually has bad games against the Ravens. For some reason this D has his number and forces him into bad decisions that he usually doesn’t make against other teams. The Patriots don’t have the receivers to stretch the field that they’ll need to keep the Ravens D off balance.

By picks Baltimore (+7).  Remember the last team to come into Gillette Stadium and hand the Patriots an ass kicking in a playoff game?  Yes, it was these Baltimore Ravens, and amazingly, that defense is still in tact and just as good if not better.  I don’t know how many deals with the devils were done on that side of the ball, but these old guys can still play some really fantastic, smash mouth defense.  Then again, this is Tom Brady we’re talking about, and if anyone would be unintimidated to face these wolves, it would be him.  However the outcome, one thing’s for sure, these aren’t the Denver Broncos coming to town.  I believe this game is going to get really ugly before it gets pretty, and while I still think the Brady Bunch pulls it off at home, it definitely will come down to the wire.  Game winning field goal anyone?

New York Giants @ San Francisco (-2.5)

Chappy picks San Francisco (-2.5). Is it possible the Giants are overconfident against the 49ers? Is it possible that since the 49ers beat them in the regular season and that BOTH teams are playing better not just the Giants? Yes and yes. The Niners offense is not the Packers offense, yet they seem to be scoring more TD’s than field goals for the past few games. Maybe they finally figured out what to do in the red zone that they were sorely missing earlier in the season, because the scoreboard has reflected it. One of Alex Smith’s best games passing in the regular season was against the Giants, so I have no reservations against them put up 25+ points. If it’s truly a wet field, the Giants will have to play more zone, which they are not good at, and will help Alex a lot. Another thing is the 49ers defense. They HIT everyone hard. Every guy they knock out has to take some steam out of the other team like when Pierre Thomas was knocked out last weekend. The Aldon/Justin Smith combo is going to hit Eli a lot. I don’t see how they’ll be able to run the ball, when nobody runs on the 49ers.

By picks San Francisco (-2.5).  Can’t believe the Niners are favored?  Perhaps that’s a bad thing though.  The Niners have played the underdog roll perfectly all season, and despite the second best record in the NFC, no one gave them a chance against the Saints last week.  I must say, that game might have very well been the best game I’ve viewed in the history of my life.  What a game, what a game.  Anyway, I don’t need to get into this too much, I’m a homer, and I’m obviously confident in my Niners and feel they could take this thing the distance.  The forecast calls for rain on Sunday, which will make the Giants even more one dimensional on offense, advantage us.  I don’t want to speak to much on this game in fear of jinxing something, but Niners should win and cover, then hopefully ride that momentum towards a 6th franchise championship.

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Doin Wild Lines

Chappy: Well, the regular season sure didn’t end the way I’d hoped it would for the Raiders, but honestly I wasn’t too surprised as they came up short in way too many games, and probably didn’t deserve to win the West just like the Broncos didn’t either. This was by far my best regular season of betting since we’ve been keeping track of our records, so hopefully it keeps on going in the playoffs as well where everyone has to just win baby!

By: I really wish I could have joined Chappy for these picks more consistently this season, but unfortunately work got in the way.  We all have our own burdens.  Anyway, Chappy’s been quite impressive in terms of his overall record, which more than carries the load for both of us.  I hope my last minute playoff run can beef up my season record.  To the lines!

Last week: Chap (4-2)

Overall: Chap (50-35-4) By (27-20)

Cincinnati @ Houston (-3).

Chappy picks Cincy (+3). This might be the most balanced match up of the weekend, and by that I mean these teams are very well balanced in that they don’t do anything poorly. Solid defenses, solid running games, and solid special teams. The X-factor all year for Cincy has been Dalton though. He doesn’t look like a rookie anymore, and is showing that he should be highly considered for the rookie of the year by leading this team that nobody gave a chance to the playoffs. Not sure why, but I see Cincy taking it to Arian Foster by putting 9 in the box and doubling Andre Johnson with the remaining two guys and daring Yates to do something. TJ Yates hasn’t shown me anything to think he can pull out this win, even at home against a team with the same amount of playoff experience as them.

By picks Cincinnati (+3).  Congratulations to the Houston Texans, they finally did it.  All those past seasons of invalid hype has culminated to this, their first post season appearance in franchise history.  Unfortunately for them, it won’t get past Saturday.  In any other season in which Cam Newton wasn’t a rookie, Andy Dalton would be the best first year player, and despite his recent bout with the flu, I trust him tossing it to A.J. Green over T.J. Yates tossing it to Andre Johnson and his gimp leg.  The Bengals are balanced on both sides of the ball, and if they can contain Arian Foster, they should be able to pull off the mild upset.

Detroit @ New Orleans (-11.5)

Chappy picks Detroit (+11.5). I’m not going to say the Lions will win, but if there’s one lesson we’ve learned from them is that this team is never out of a game. Teams that score a lot in the 4th quarter tend to cover spreads quite often. The Stafford-Megatron connection has been huge these last few weeks (pretty much won me a fantasy playoffs), and I don’t see the Saints being able to stop it enough to cover this spread. Brees and Stafford will both get theirs against not so great defenses. I’d almost say the surer bet in this game is the over on points even with it being at 59.5!

By picks Detroit (+11.5).  First of all, let me state that I was pro Detroit Lions before the season began, and although there are some class act players in this organization, it only takes a few bad apples to ruin the bunch.  In every national televised game featuring the Lions this season, there have been breakouts of temper tantrums similar to that of a child, a disgusting sight to see from a large, grown man.  Anyway, I’m not as big a fan now.  As much as Drew Brees has been lights out throwing the ball as of late, 11.5 points is hard to cover in a playoff game, especially against another high scoring dome team.  Saints win by 7.

Atlanta @ NY Giants (-3)

Chappy picks Atlanta (+3). A lot of people are saying that the Giants are making a run like they did in 2007, but I don’t buy it. That year was ridiculously lucky, and I think they had a better all around team then especially in the running game. I feel like this is finally the time for Matt Ryan to get a playoff win. The Giants secondary isn’t as good as Roddy White and Julio Jones are, and the routes they often run are short ones that will negate some of that Giants pass rush. I still never understood why a team with a worse record should ever have a home playoff game, but whatever it seems to happen every year now…

By picks NY Giants (-3).  Is it time to jump back on that Matty Ice bandwagon?  Not quite.  As much as I like Atlanta and the makeup of their team, I just feel like the Giants are clicking on all cylinders now.  Victor Cruz might be the most explosive player in the game right now and I predict a big game from him, in fact more specifically, a game changing play from him.  Plus it’s tough for a dome team to travel on the road to cold climates come January and try to steal one from a veteran team.

Pittsburgh @ Denver (+8.5)

Chappy picks Denver (+8.5). I’m not sold on Denver winning this game, but the way Rothlisberger has played the last few weeks I wouldn’t be shocked if he throws a few picks to the ball hawking Denver defense that will keep it close. Tebow should have more opportunities to make plays throwing the ball since Clarke is out for this game. That being said, he probably won’t throw that much regardless of who is in the secondary no matter how much Elway wants him to throw. Win or lose, I bet all we hear about next week is what happened in this game to Tebow…

By picks Denver (+8.5).  I’m not making this pick for the spread, I actually think Tim Tebow can pull this off.  The Broncos have lost three straight and only deserve to be in the post season because the Chargers and Raiders ended up being greater disappointments.  But this is a new stage, and even more so, this is Tebow Time.  Denver’s defense is good enough to keep the game close late, and if that’s the case, Tebow and company pull it off.  If you don’t think so, you’re obviously not a person of faith.


Doin Eastern Conference Predictions

Well, we’re a week into the season, and like I said during our Western Conference predictions, we probably wouldn’t get these ones up until a few games in. None of us follow the Eastern Conference like we follow the Pacific Division, but it’s still fun to shed some of our expertise on the OTHER conference.

Chappy

1) Miami Heat – Much has been made of Lebron’s newly found post game. Sure, that might help, but what is really going to help is having a better cast around the big 3 and a full season under their belt together. Battier might not be what he was a few years ago, but he’s going to be a great glue guy and help get everyone get on the same page. Udonis Haslem wasn’t an addition, but having him healthy will be a HUGE help. I actually think not having Dampier and Big Z slowing them down on the fast break is an advantage even if they are very thin up front with only Curry’s carcass and Joel Anthony.

2) Chicago Bulls – The Bulls pretty much stood pat during the offseason, and rightfully so. The reigning MVP should get even better than he was, because he seems to do that every year. I see Boozer playing better now that he knows the team philosophies and is more comfortable with his teammates.

3) New York Knicks – I’m not sure why I believe in the Knicks after going through a crap west coast run losing to the Lakers and Warriors, but they have a possibly great player in Baron if he’s in shape. When you can get him excited about basketball in front of a good crowd, he plays well. He sucked it up on the Clippers, and when he realized how good Blake Griffin was, he started getting in shape and playing hard (which pissed Sterling off to the point he exiled him to Cleveland when Baron was playing his best ball as a Clipper). Playing with Melo and Amare in MSG will motivate Baron to be good again, and he doesn’t even need to be great, just better than Tony Douglas, which shouldn’t be hard…

4) Boston Celtics – I’m not sure I believe they’ll be the 4th best team, so that’s two picks in a row I’m not sure I should’ve made, but at the same time this team is too talented to not be in the mix in one way or another with four all-stars on the team. I really liked the addition of Brandon Bass to the roster, dude’s going to be great at keeping KG’s minutes down this year. Their biggest question always seems to be Rondo. The emotional guy who is an amazing point guard, but has no offensive game. I hope all that negative energy towards him made him work on his jumper this off-season. I don’t think the 0-3 start is anything to worry too much about.

5) Atlanta Hawks – Feels about right for the Hawks. They didn’t improve the roster with the additions of McGrady and Pargo over re-signing Crawford, but they didn’t really regress that much either. Joe Johnson’s ridiculous contract is in year two. Josh Smith is a beast, but will they move him for some idiotic reason?!?

6) Orlando Magic – Remember last year how the whole Melo trade swirling around Denver hurt them? I see something like that happening this year, but they’re still a good enough team to make the playoffs with or without Dwight for half the season.

7) Indiana Pacers – There’s a lot of people on the Pacers bandwagon. I guess I can see why since they seem to fit well together. Collison left a lot to be desired at the point last year, but with West, Granger, and Paul George breaking onto the scene they should be a stout defensive team that can also score with the best of them.

8) Philadelphia 76ers – Not completely confident in why I’m picking them, but I feel like their pieces fit pretty well like Indiana’s. They have a solid mix of veterans and youngsters, that should mesh well as the season goes along. Everyone seems high on Jrue Holiday (rightfully so), but what I like most about this team is their team defense. They have scrappy guys all over the court, and on a given night it’s a good offensive game to score 90+ on them.

MCeezy

1) Miami Heat – They sure look pissed. I have no reason to believe they’ll go further in this year’s playoffs than they did last, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go 61-5 in the regular season. They’re out the gates at 3-0.

2) Chicago Bulls – They pretty much return the same team that went 62-20 last year. Derrick Rose is one year deeper into his prime. The guy’s still 23. If he follows his career season trends, he ought to average 30 and 8 this year.

3) Boston Celtics – I guess I have to go Atlantic Division team if we’re predicting playoff seeds. If these are just power rankings, move them down. The Celtics clearly need Paul Pierce back, but I think they’ll be more consistent than the Knicks and beat them out by a few games.

4) Indiana Pacers – David West’s addition makes them a playoff team. I’m going out on a limb putting them at 4th, but I may as well go all the way out on that limb. They really need to improve their backcourt, but maybe this is the year Darren Collison breaks out.

5) New York Knicks – Carmelo and Amare will be playing some motivated ball this year, but their success will depend on if they can get anyone to play with them. They don’t leave a whole lot of shots for other guys. They’re pretty thin as you go down the roster. They just added Jeremy Lin, for what that’s worth.

6) Atlanta Hawks – The Hawks can’t seem to get over the hump. They’re not old, but it feels like the window is closing for some reason.

7) Milwaukee Bucks – I’m pretty much just rolling the dice on everyone staying healthy. It won’t happen, but Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut, with a dialed-in Stephen Jackson would be a playoff team.

8) Orlando Magic – They’ll float around .500 for the first 2/3 of the year, then they’ll trade Dwight Howard and starting piling up the losses. They’ll back into the playoffs and get destroyed in the first round of the playoffs against Miami.


Doin Western Conference Predictions

As always we love to predict the top 8 seeds in each conference, and today we picked the West’s top eight. Unfortunately, we probably won’t be predicting the Eastern Conference top 8 until after the season starts because of Christmas gatherings getting in the way, but sometimes holiday obligations trump the blog!

MCeezy

1. Dallas Mavericks – It may be cliche, but the Mavs are the defending champs, so they’re the team to beat. They’ve always been strong in the regular season, so I see them cruising to the #1 seed. They lost Tyson Chandler and the league’s whitest Latino, Jose Juan Barea, but they also added Delonte West and the second best rebounding Kardashian, Lamar Odom. They got Vince Carter too, but I’m not too sure he’s an “addition.”

2. Los Angeles Lakers – Everyone expects them to regress a bit after losing Odom, and missing out on Chris Paul and Dwight Howard, presumably. But they still have Kobe Bryant. I’m not sure why they never address the point guard position, but I guess it’s not hard to pass the ball to Bean. I have my doubts about new head coach Mike Brown, but I think they’ll still be dominant in the regular season.

3. Seattle Supersonics – The team formerly known as the Sonics has got to be the best example of a team building through the draft ever. Durant, Westbrook, Harden, and co made tremendous strides last year, and there’s no signs of them slowing down. I expect to see Cole Aldrich in particular emerge this year.

4. Memphis Grizzlies – The Grizz were a surprise in the playoffs last year, all without top scorer Rudy Gay. They’ve lost Darrell Arthur for the year, but this team is deep. I expect breakout seasons from many of the Grizzlies’ players, including Xavier Henry, Josh Selby, Sam Young, and MCeezy lookalike, Greivis Vasquez.

5. San Antonio Spurs – The Spurs’ window is closing in many people’s eyes, due to the aging of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobli. But I believe that will be offset by the improvement of Dejuan Blair and Gary Neal. Gani Lawal and Kawhi Leonard are the wild cards here. If they perform, this team will be right back in the thick of things.

6. Utah Jazz – I’m going out on a limb here, but no matter who’s on the roster, the Jazz always seem to come correct. Al Jefferson and Devin Harris are an underrated duo, and Paul Millsap is a solid third option. We’re most likely going to see a breakout season from either Derrick Favors, Gordon Heyward, or Enes Kanter (if a breakout season for a rookie is even possible). I also expect a resurgence from Mehmet Okur.

7. Los Angeles Clippers – How can you not expect a successful season from the Clips, who’ve added former MVP, Chris Paul. The term “Lob City” is gaining popularity, because Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan are high flyers around the rim. They have three starting PGs in Paul, Chauncey Billups, and Eric Bledsoe. Caron Butler is the wild card here. If he can come back and regain his old form, this team could be even more successful.

8. Sacramento Kings – Call it a homer pick, but I think the Kings have a higher ceiling than the Warriors. Tyreke Evans, Demarcus Cousins, and Jimmer Fredette are a potentially lethal trio. They may take a while to gel together, but the last time there was a lockout shortened season, the Kings came out of it a playoff team, and the sky’s the limit for this young team. I’m not sure that there are enough basketballs to go around for guys like John Salmons and Marcus Thornton though. The failed physical and subsequent voided contract of Chuck Hayes hurts a bit, but they have more cap room than any other team, so I expect them to bring in another quality big man, perhaps re-signing center Samuel Dalembert.

By

1.  OKC Thunder – Perhaps this team isn’t quite ready to finish the season with their conference’s best record, but when I saw that clip of KD playing flag football with some local frat boys during the lockout, it catapulted my love for him to the top.  Basically, I’m really rooting for this guy and the team he plays for.  But it’s not like the Thunder finishing as the West’s top seed is very far-fetched.  This is a team that’s improved on a yearly basis, and was one Dirk Nowitzki away from a trip to the Finals.  With an explosive, athletic array of talent, and a lean, toned Kendrick Perkins, it seems to me the Thunder have all the ingredients to make a serious run at it this year.

2.  Dallas Mavericks – Losing Tyson Chandler was big, there’s no denying that.  He was the one piece missing from the Mavs during all their previous failed attempts at winning a title.  When they got him, they won.  But, picking up Lamar Odom is definitely going to take some sting off the loss of TC.  While not as long as Chandler, Odom is long enough, and everyone knows he’s a character guy who excels on the defensive end.  Basically, he’s their new Tyson Chandler.  Plus, imagine how good Dirk, Kidd and “The Jet” are going to be when they go out there with the monkey off their backs?  Dallas is playing with house money which makes them dangerous.

3.  LA Clippers – Next year, this team might be #1.  In just two pre-season games, this team showed a glimpse of how difficult it will be to defend them, and score on them.  Their starting back court might be the best defensive back court in the NBA already, and if DeAndre Jordan improves defensively, watch out!  He’s already a great shot blocker.  Chauncey might fit the 2 perfectly on this squad, and his efficiency will skyrocket with CP3 diming to him.  Speaking of CP3, he now has TWO guys who he can throw 14 feet high lobs to, and he’s already the best passer in the game.  Not fair!  Let’s just hope Blake Griffin is still suspect defensively, or else we can make it official now, we’ll see this team come late June.  I think I drooled a little just writing about the Clips.

4.  LA Lakers – I know Lakers fans are saying they’re still the toast of the town, but when you’re star seems to be entering this season at age 45 (in basketball years), your starting Power Forward has been deemed soft (again), and your young future star Center can’t stay on the floor for a season, putting them at #4 might even be a stretch.  Plus do we really believe Mike Brown can coach this team?  I haven’t even mentioned Kobe’s divorce.  Well maybe the divorce helps Kobe, as he ends up being really mad and goes ape shit on the league.  But the way he got turned back by DeAndre Jordan on an attempted dunk in the pre-season, I doubt that scenario is on the horizon.

5.  Memphis Grizzlies – Don’t know how this team will survive long term as it seems everyone was handed out huge contracts, but for the time being, the nucleus of this squad was kept intact with the re-signing of the better Gasol, Marc.  Memphis made their great playoff run last season without Rudy Gay, so naturally I would assume they’d be a better team with him, plus the gained confidence and experience from crashing last year’s post season.  With all that said, I don’t think the Grizzlies have that “guy” who can take them to the next level.  Finishing 5th in this conference is a great accomplishment for this team.

6.  San Antonio Spurs – I admire a franchise that displays loyalty to the studs that gave them glory.  So keeping perhaps the original “Big 3” of the 2000’s TD, TP & Ginobili together is a class move by them.  Too bad class does not reverse the effects of Father Time and Mother Nature.  This team is old and their glory days are long behind them.  This team is the Lakers of two years from now.

7.  Golden State Warriors – Pending the severity of Steph Curry’s injury, I (again) really like our team this season.  The Warriors have a ton of talent on the offensive end, our Achilles’ Heel has always been defending and rebounding.  But there’s something in Mark Jackson that has me believing that will finally change this season.  Hell, Andris Biedrins had 4 blocks against Sac in their final pre-season tune-up, but more importantly, he looked active and confident on both ends.  He’s been quick to a lot of offensive rebounds this pre-season.  What sets the Warriors apart this year from teams of the past, is our bench looks solid all around, and this is prior to the addition of Brandon Rush.  Once again though, this is all pending the status of Steph.

8.  Portland Trailblazers – The retiring of Brandon Roy puts a dampen feeling to not only Blazer fans, but NBA fans in general.  He is a class guy off the court, and a silky, smooth assassin on.  Luckily for the Blazers, in instances where they’ve drafted bad, or unlucky, they also drafted good and made solid off season acquisitions.  LaMarcus Aldridge has blossomed in Roy’s absence and is an All-Star in my opinion.  Who would of thunk Wes Matthews was worth every cent he got of that huge contract (thus far)?  With young studs like Nicolas Batum and the addition of veteran Point Guard Raymond Felton, the Blazers have enough fire power to finish in the Top 8 this season.  Where they go from there, is anyone’s guess.

Chappy

1. Seattle Supersonics – There’s no such thing as sneaking up on anyone this year. KD, Westbrook, and Harden will continue to grow offensively, but I think the real tipping point will be the way Ibaka and Perkins can protect the rim. Ibaka showed tons of promise, and Perk was too injured to make a difference last year but will this season. I think the biggest question for these youngsters is can they handle being the target and whether their two superstars can co-exist.

2. Los Angeles Clippers – Remember when CP3 led the Hornets to the #2 seed a few years ago? Well, he won the MVP that season, and his team wasn’t nearly as talented as the Clippers team he’s currently on. I actually think with this cast, he will win the MVP this year if he can stay healthy, and will be one of the most entertaining teams in recent memory. They might need another big man to give Blake and Deandre a blow, but at every other position they’re deep, which is great in a shortened season. I just hope there’s no blown ACL for CP3 like nearly every Clippers PG goes down with.

3. Dallas Mavericks – It was interesting to watch them let Chandler walk. I’m sure they knew he wasn’t worth $60M, which is why I was kinda happy the Warriors didn’t end up with him. Odom going to Dallas was a pretty solid move for them. They also picked up Delonte West to help cope with the loss of Barea. I don’t understand why they only have one so-so center on the roster in Haywood, but this team always seems to be in the top 4 teams out west with or without a competent center.

4. Los Angeles Lakers – Another team that looks in flux. Can Andrew Bynum finally live up to his hype and stay healthy for a full season making him the second best center in the game? Doubt it, because he hasn’t ever done it. The worrysome part for the Lakers is their bench. They lost Odom in one of the worst trades ever, and didn’t find anyone that is worthy of replacing what he does. This team has almost declined enough to bump them out of the top 4, but not quite yet.

5. San Antonio Spurs – This might be a bad pick putting them this low since they were the #1 seed in the West last year. That being said, they didn’t really inject much youth into this aging roster. Tim Duncan might be healthier than he was last year, but we’ve seen him on the decline for quite some time. Will Tony Parker ever get traded? Seems strange they got rid of George Hill, and kept the older, more expensive declining Parker.

6. Memphis Grizzlies – There seems to be an uproar on Rudy Gay coming back and actually hurting this team. How can getting an All-Star back in the lineup hurt your team?!? Do Grizzly fans actually think Tony Allen is better option than Gay? There’s noway I understand that logic. I see Conley and Gasol taking steps forward, and this team is pretty young so that will help in those triple headers during the season.

7. Denver Nuggets – There’s only one reason I’m taking the Nuggets to make the playoffs and that’s because they are so deep even with some guys still hanging out in China. They played really good down the stretch last year after they sent Melo packing, and also dealt with Coach Karl’s medical conditions. That shows me there really is a team feeling going on in the locker room. Nobody really plays a lot more than 20-25 minutes on a given night, which is going to be a good thing with the upcoming compacted schedule.

8. Portland Trailblazers – There’s tons of bad news out of Blazers camp with Brandon Roy retiring, Oden missing nearly all their games (shocking), and Lamarcus Aldridge suffering some strange heart problem. That being said, this team always seems to overcome and sqeak their way into the playoffs. Felton and Crawford seem like solid additions to Wallace, Aldridge, and Matthews trio.


Doin Lines Week 12

Another week down in the NFL season. Shockingly, I’m still on a pretty good run with the picks. I thought by now I’d be falling back to .500, but fortunately that hasn’t been the case. By had too much to do this week to get his picks added in, so I’ll be flying solo on picks for week 12. I’ll pick a couple more games than I normally would including upsets in two of the Thanksgiving games maybe due to no bye weeks, but mostly due to By’s absence.

Last Week: Chappy (3-2-1), By (2-2)

Overall: Chappy (30-22-4), By (26-17)

Miami @ Dallas (-7)

Chappy picks Miami (+7). There’s nothing like stuffing your face, and watching the Cowboys lose. Unfortunately, they usually seem to win on Turkey day. I’m not entirely convinced that Miami will win this game, but ever since Reggie told everyone he and the entire team sucks, they’ve played very good. Who needs Andrew Luck anyways, Matt Moore is gelling with his receivers like Ace Ventura did with Snowflake, and actually looks like he might have a future in this league. The Cowboys are on a roll lately, but we all know that Romo can inspire a downward spiral in a hurry, and I feel like this is the beginning of the usual Cowboys collapse in the second half of the season even if it is still November where Romo is usually a winner.

Green Bay @ Detroit (+6.5)

Chappy picks Detroit (+6.5). Not sure how confident I feel in either of these Thanksgiving picks, but honestly I feel like it’s going to be a close game whether Detroit can pull out a victory or not. Maybe the Lions listened to my rant in the lines last week, because they started to run the ball again. I’ve been saying for awhile that since Best went out with a concussion, they had become way too predictable in their attack. I don’t really like the Detroit secondary or any secondary against Rodgers for that matter, but they at least have the guys to knock him down a few times, and don’t worry about a penalty if they do want to hit him just to hit him.

Houston @ Jacksonville (+3)

Chappy picks Houston (-3). Anybody out there think Matt Leinart can be effective in this offense? Probably not, since the last time he took over a winning team in AZ replacing Kurt Warner, he showed that he wasn’t the right guy for it. I do have lots of confidence in him being able to hand the ball off to Ben Tate and Arian Foster. Even I can do that, so he should be fine. Plus, he’ll get back Andre Johnson this week, and you barely have to hit the area code he’s in for him to haul in the pass. Since the Jags never score more than 20 points, I could see the Houston backfield beating them in points to cover this spread. The Texans can overcome Leinart’s sucktitude, and win by more than a field goal.

Carolina @ Indianapolis (+3)

Chappy picks Carolina (-3). I was really hesitant picking this game, because it seems like the past few times I’ve picked Carolina they’ve disappointed me. That being said, I’ve felt comfortable every time I’ve picked against the Colts this season, and Cam should be able to bounce back after his mistake prone game against a team that doesn’t let the opposing team make mistakes. A bye week wasn’t going to fix all the problems the Colts had all over the field, hell, an off-season might not even remedy their problems at this point… This might be the last time Indy has a chance to win this year, but sadly I only see 0-16 in their future.

Chicago @ Oakland (-4).

Chappy picks Oakland (-4). I’ll be in attendance for this game with about 20 friends! Back when the tickets were purchased for the game, I actually was very afraid the Bears would come in to Oakland and win. Now that SD helped us out by knocking out Cutler, I feel comfortable betting on this game again. It sounds like there’s an outside chance DMac might be playing in this one. Even if he’s not, Bettis 2.0, aka Michael Bush has shown he can get the job done by showing off his own version of Beat Mode, and could be one of the most underrated back in the league. As long as Palmer doesn’t turn it over, the Raiders should be able to beat Hanie and Forte. I am worried about the receiving core for the Raiders though with Ford and Moore in walking boots, and DHB coming off a concussion.

Denver @ San Diego (-6)

Chappy picks Denver (+6). Wait, what!?! Denver is a six point dog in this one?!? I know Vegas and God don’t exactly mix, but seriously Vegas, how can you smite Tim Tebow’s team like this!?! Phillip Rivers has shown us one thing this year, and that is he can turn it over with the best of them. He’s taking on one of the most underrated defenses in the league that causes tons of turnovers and three and outs, which should make it difficult even at home. It’s even highlighted more when their offensive line is in shambles. It’s funny how all my Chargers friends gave up on their season three weeks ago, just like Rivers did, zing!

NY Giants @ New Orleans (-7)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-7). For some reason the Saints are a team that’s flying under the radar kinda like the Texans were in the AFC. New Orleans is healthier than they’ve been all season on both sides of the ball, and have the type of offense that gives the Giants problems. I think I’m picking the Saints more because they’re coming off a bye week and at home where they always show up and play well. Awesome Drew Brees stat; at home he has completed a ridiculous 76% of his passes. The Giants will get Ahmad Bradshaw back, but I don’t see that being enough in the end to keep them close enough to cover. If my picks come out correct in the NFC East, the Eagles actually do still have a shot at winning that division.


Doin Lines Week 2

Chappy: Off to a terrific start to the gambling season, I mean NFL season, and I’m already feeling better than I did last year. I think we all learned more about teams in week 1’s 16 games than we did in all 60 preseason games combined. It seems like a thousand things happened in only one week of football, but that’s probably because we over analyze everything. Let’s keep all this good mojo we got going, and get on to the picks for week 2!

By: A quick blurb.  It’s week two, and I still feel so grateful that we are even watching football, maybe the effects of it won’t wear off at all this year.  People don’t realize how much they appreciate watching a game until it’s almost taken away from them.  Perhaps that’s the reason why Chappy and I were on fire during opening week, look at that winning percentage right there!  We got a good thing back with football, and we weren’t blowing picks on just any game.  We were focused.  We were determined.  We still are.  Although I must apologize ahead of time to Chaps, I think I just jinxed us for the rest of the season there … I guess we’ll find out soon enough.  On to the lines!

Last Week: Chappy (3-1-1) By (3-1)

Kansas City @ Detroit (-8.5)

Chappy picks Detroit (-8.5). Under normal conditions I’d never take the Lions to beat any team by more than a touchdown. I don’t think the Chiefs offense will be nearly as bad as they were against Buffalo as Bowe and Charles are bound to have better games, but their defense is awful. How do you let Ryan Fitzpatrick rip you a new one. I mean the Chiefs didn’t land at #32 in our power rankings for no reason! I don’t see the Chiefs having any answers for Megatron as he’ll knock the cornerbacks off him like nats without Eric Berry roaming the secondary. I see a close first half and a dominating second half for the Lions.

Arizona @ Washington (-4)

By picks Washington (-4). Am I really going with a team that has Rex Grossman running the show?  You bet your bottom dollar I am!  It’s not that I’m high on Grossman, but Arizona didn’t exactly impress me squeaking by Carolina at home last week.  Yes, Cam Newton went off, but what many are neglecting to ask is, how much of that was due to bad defense?  Cam Newton can’t really be that good, can he?  While not blown away by Washington’s opening performance, I did take notice.  Ultimately, my prediction is Grossman puts together a string of solid games to start the season, then returns to his “Hyde” form shortly after, throwing plenty of picks, and throwing away chances at wins along the way.  But for the time being, the Redskins ride their high all the way to their second consecutive home victory by at least 10 points.  Keep your eye on Tim Hightower as well, he’ll have a bit of a chip on his shoulder facing his old team.

Oakland @ Buffalo (-3.5)

Chappy picks Oakland (+3.5). I’m never a big fan of picking my team especially when they are travelling to the eastcoast to play an early game when they just played a Monday night game, but I can’t help myself. I actually have hope they can win outside the division this year, and hopefully it will start this week. A lot has changed since their last match up three years ago. Jamarcus was our starting QB, Buffalo still believed in Marshawn. Now both these teams look somewhat competent coming out of the gates. I love the way the Raiders are trying to be the bullies they were back in their glory days. In the MNF game they tried to give Denver chances to win with many ugly penalties, but maybe they learned something (probably not). I see them at least covering the spread.

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota (-3)

By picks Minnesota (-3). The Vikings did everything in their power to lose their season opening game at San Diego.  They begged Philip Rivers to bring the Chargers back, and that’s exactly what he did.  The Chargers are also said to be contenders in the opinions of many.  Conversely, Tampa Bay, last season’s surprise, got flat out beat by Detroit at home.  This makes the Vikings loss the more impressive of the two, or the lesser between two evils.  To Tampa’s credit, a lot is expected from the Lions this season, but I said in last week’s predictions, that I felt Tampa would use this season as an opportunity to take two steps back from last season’s success, and nothing that happened in week one has me thinking otherwise.  It should be a close game late, until Tampa subjects to some growing pains, making some crucial mistakes, while AP goes nuts.  I have a strange feeling AP goes over 200 in this game.  Vikings by 6.

Baltimore @ Tennessee (+6)

Chappy picks Baltimore (-6). The Ravens were easily the most impressive team last weekend while destroying their division foes, but like Terell Suggs said “You’re only as good as your next game”. That kind of attitude has me believing in this team more than I thought I would. There’s nothing not to like about Ray Rice right now, He was snatched up just before my first pick in both my fantasy drafts. I see their defense being able to contain CJ and possibly making Rice the best running back in the game right now. If they can stay healthy, they are going to be tough for any team to beat. Hasselbeck had a decent game for Tennessee last week, but he’s always one play away from being out for the year. Baltimore can deliver those kinds of blows, and will rattle the veteran at some point during the game into a turnover or two.

Cincinnati @ Denver (-5)

By picks Denver (-5). Listen, I’m probably more pro Tebow than anyone outside of Jesus, but even I know Tebow isn’t Denver’s best option at quarterback yet.  The Broncos ran into a highly motivated, and talented Raiders team, that ran wild on them.  That’s not really Kyle Orton’s fault.  I don’t believe the Broncos are a playoff contender, but I do believe they have more to offer than what was shown last Monday.  It’s the fans in Denver that are making them seem worse than what they really are.  The Bengals won their first game by fluke, and when pitted against a team that would like nothing more than to shut their own fans up, Kyle Orton goes ape shit and adds another 400 yard game to the calendar, while the Bengals reveal their true stripes.  Denver by 14.

Green Bay @ Carolina (+9.5)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-9.5). Cam was spectacular in his debut. I’ll be honest, I didn’t see it coming. I thought he’d be okay this year, as in, better than Tebow, but not 422 yards good. While it was a nice story for week 1, he still lost, and the Packers are going to roll out a lot of defensive schemes that will make him look like the rookie he is. If AZ can put up 28 on Carolina’d D, there’s no reason to think the Packers can’t put up 50 without breaking a sweat. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this line jump to 10 before the weekend (I wrote this on Wednesday, and low and behold the line is 10!). Too many people betting on Green Bay I see, they still look plenty attractive with the adjusted half point to the line!

San Diego @ New England (-6.5)

Chappy: San Diego (+6.5). Whoa, four picks for the road teams this week. Hopefully this works out. It seems like everyone has the Chargers somewhere between 5-8 in their power rankings, yet the Patriots are a touchdown favorite for this game?!? It feels like this line should be more in the 4 range, because the last three times they’ve hooked up the games have been decided by 4 or less points. Granted the Patriots looked amazing in their opener, while the Chargers looked a little rusty, but both over matched their opponent throughout their respective games. One thing I think we can all agree on is that both these offenses are great. Another thing we can probably agree on is that the Chargers have the better defense, and a few recievers as big as Brandon Marshall with a better QB than Chad Henne throwing to them. I hope SD loses by six or less!

Philadelphia @ Atlanta (+3)

By picks Philadelphia

You didn’t think I was only going to pick teams with home games this week, did you?  You didn’t think I was going to turn my back on the Eagles, did you?  If you said no to those questions, you thought right!  Although if there’s one team that could steal away a vote from me towards Philly in a match up, it would be the Falcons.  Matty Ice, Roddy Roddy Piper White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez and Burner Turner.  That’s a lot of weapons, and despite being held in check out in Chicago last week, no one expects this high octane offense to stall any further.  With that said, Mike Vick has been amazing since last season, and the balance on Philly’s offense, as well as the ability for the Eagles to hit a home run on any given play gives them the edge here.  I think the Eagles win by 6 in a barn burner, 40-34 in what will easily be the game of the week.  Vick returns to Atlanta too, drama …


AFC Over/Under Predictions

It’s that time of year again, and Vegas has released the props for projected win totals in the NFL earlier this week. We all took a crack at how we thought each AFC team would fare against the over/under totals, so read the teams you care about or all of them if you like our opinions that much. For the 2010 season, we were right on for 68% of our picks!

Patriots (11.5 wins)

Dre – Over.  This might be the easiest bet on the board.  The Pats won more last year, and have added an offensive weapon in 85 (said in Spanish) and a defensive stud-when-he-wants-to-be in Haynesworth.  These deals always work out for the Pats. I can see 14 again easy.

Chappy – Over, I think the Pats are ready after letting all those young players grow last year. 14 wins with a mismatched cast last season has me felling confident with this pick.

By – Over.  As much as I hope this team fails to live up to their expectations, the combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, with the additions of The Human Tweet and Albert Haynesworth should be more than enough to cover.

Chargers (10 wins)

Dre – Push.  Last year’s was in inter-division fluke.  And slow starts seem to plague this franchise.  Before their week 6 Bye: 4-1 (Ws: Min, KC, Mia, Den. L: NE).  And there will be no freak sloshball game that KC just barely wins, the 31-0 whoopin in game 2 was the truth. 

Chappy – Push, not that they can’t win more than 10, but their schedule is rough this year with games against the reining champs, and the AFC East. They were abused by their division mates last year as well, so this isn’t a lock at all.

MCeezy – Under. The window has officially closed for the Chargers. They have virtually no running game, Floyd and Jackson seem to care more about money than anything else, and Philip Rivers is a meltdown waiting to happen.

By – Over.  San Diego is still the measuring stick in the AFC West, and I haven’t seen anything done from the other teams in the division to change that.  Plus, it’s a quarterback driven league and last I checked, Philip Rivers is still one of the highest rated qb’s as well as douche faces in the NFL.

Steelers (10.5 wins)

Dre – Over.  By plenty.  The Steelers will again be the class of the North, with their only competition coming from the Ravens twice, Pats and Colts.  Otherwise they match up with the NFC West this year, not tough at all.

Chappy – Over, their schedule starts off a little tough, but after week 9 against Baltimore, they might be able to win their last six games without much challenge. I guess we’ll know if this prediction is going to workout by mid-season.

By – Over.  I dislike the Steelers.  They have more Lombardi Trophies than the 49ers, so I was uberly excited when they fell short to Green Bay in the Super Bowl last season, add to that it was to Cal’s Finest, woot woot!  But let’s face it, the Steelers aren’t going anywhere and if anything, they’re even more motivated to return to the top.

Colts (9.5 wins)

Dre – Over.  I wish I could say Peyton’s health could be an issue, and while it’s his neck and not legs he’s rehabbing, he’ll be out there by the second week of September to lead the Colts to victory.  He’s Peyton Manning.  Nuff said.

Chappy – Over, I don’t think a Peyton led team has won less than 10 games in a good decade. I’ll give it to them on that fact alone.

MCeezy – Over. The lockout is going to help the Colts as much as anyone. They’ve never been the best team on paper, but always know how to execute and get the job done. Manning’s discipline alone will probably carry the team to 12 wins.

By – Over.  Yes the Colts don’t seem to be the sexy pick anymore, but on the strength of Peyton Manning alone, over.

Ravens (10.5 wins)

Dre – Over.  I truly believe the Ravens will get the Steelers this year.  Another easy schedule, like the Steelers, but the Ravens have a chip on their shoulder after the playoff loss to their rival.  Either way, they’ll probably match up again in the divisional round.

Chappy – Under, They cleared a bunch of cap space, but didn’t do anything with the money. This fairly old defense has to break down eventually right? I wonder if the crime rate will go up as a result of them losing more games than last season?

MCeezy – Over. Let’s hope so at least. I’d hate to see a mellow Ricky Williams forced to endure evil, which we call crime.

By – Under.  I like the Ravens, I really do, but their window has closed.  Or I should say, Pittsburgh never let them open it.  Baltimore will still be a force to be reckoned with throughout the league, but they’ll also still play second fiddle to the black and yellow up North.

Titans (6.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  A gigantic question mark at QB is not the way to start a season, with Hassel’s back giving out periodically and a rookie who doesn’t know how to run out of bounds or slide to avoid contact.  Should be an exciting year in Tennesse.

Chappy – Under, Chris Johnson is holding out. I can barely name anyone else on their team outside Finnegan and his fight night attitude. Hasselbeck should’ve stayed in Seattle imho.

By – Under.  Chris Johnson is holding out.  Even if he does sign, the Titans have no threat at wide receiver to keep defenses honest.  Well, I take that back, there’s potential, but still.  Like Chappy said, I can’t really name any other player on this team aside from the aforementioned.  That usually means a losing record.

Dolphins (7.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  Four losses within the division to start.  Then a tough schedule after that, with an unproven QB and a rookie RB taking the ball.  Marshall will be ineffective, and the addition of Reggie Bush will be a bust.  Yeah I said it.

Chappy – Under, replacing Ronnie Brown and Rickey Williams with Reggie Bush isn’t the recepie for success. I do like the Marshall and Bess combo in the recieving core, but that isn’t enough in such a tough division.

MCeezy – Under. The Dolphins seemed like they were on the way back to contention, but I’m just not convinced they’ll be able to gel on the field this year. Unless, Jason Taylor has one more great season up his sleeve.

By – Under.  Pretty much what Dre said, although I do like Marshall to be a little better than “ineffective” but not by much.  Perhaps the term “somewhat useful” works better for me.

Texans (8.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  Shouldn’t this line be 8 even?  Everyone knows this is an 8 win offense and an 8 loss defense.  I didn’t see enough in the additions of Joseph and Manning to the secondary to change that.

Chappy –  Over, even though they didn’t improve this porous defense, they have a relatively easy schedule, so I see them topping 9 win mark. This might be one of my least confident picks.

By – Over.  Why do I always fall for the Texans Pre-Season hype?  This year there isn’t as much hype, but still, new season, same story for me.  I just really like Houston’s offense.  If Houston’s offense had a Facebook page, I would become a fan of it and like it.  I hope it’s enough to squeeze out 9 wins.

Jets (8 wins)

Dre – Over.  This seems pretty low considering the success this franchise has had the past two years.  They didn’t lose a lot on offense, besides Braylon’s droppsies, and their defense is oh so strong.

Chappy – Over, I’m sure Rex is pissed at this win loss prediction that Vegas gave them. I almost went for a push with this one, but I bet they will be better than a .500 team. At least they have the AFC West on their schedule this year.

MCeezy – Over. How are they going to go back to .500 after such a solid year last season. We saw what Michael Vick did for Philly last year fresh out of jail, you mean to tell me adding Plaxico won’t propel them to an AFC East title this year?

By – Over.  Not sure why the o/u is so low on this one, didn’t the Jets make the AFC Championship Game last season?  They’ve only gained experience since then, and this team really responds to Rex Ryan and his antics.  They might get swept by the Pats in the division this season, but 9 wins shouldn’t be too difficult for Gang Green.

Bills (5.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  The Bills are still the Bills. Tough schedule this year between their division games and being matched up with the NFC east.  Add on the Chargers and Chiefs, and it’s not looking promising.

Chappy – Under, I don’t even know what direction this team is going, but it’s not up. Being in the strongest division in the league won’t help them one bit either.

MCeezy – Under. The Bills are the equivalent of a triple-A team in the NFL. Nick Barnett and Shawne Merriman would have formed an amazing LB duo, but I’d prefer to have Poluzsny. I just can’t believe Lee Evans is still there. Is he the longest tenured player in Buffalo since Andre Reed?

By – Under.  They can only compete with one team in their division, and that one team is still better than them.  Add to that, they’ve got tough out of division match ups, and a 5 win season would be something to celebrate in Buffalo.

Browns (6.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  Even being matched up with the NFC West won’t help as they’d be lucky to split.  Their division is rough, and their veteran QB likes to give the ball back to the other team.  No Bueno.

Chappy – Over, They did some good things last year, and I think they will improve again. They play the AFC and NFC West this year, which should help them get to 7 wins on the season.

By – Under.  I do believe in the Madden curse.  If anything happens to Peyton Hillis, the Browns are in big trouble.

Broncos (5.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  I hope Kyle Orton keeps his job, but either way I don’t think the Broncos have enough talent to get past their own division and a tough rest of schedule.  No defense is not how to win games, even with a nice draft on that side of the ball.

Chappy – Under, I’m iffy on this pick, as I think the return of Elvis Dumervil will help them a lot on defense where they were terrible (up front), but that won’t be enough unless the Tebow issues get sorted out.

MCeezy – Over. I hope, for the Raiders’ sake, it’s the under, but I think Denver rebounds from a disappointing season, and Kyle Orton plays with a little extra fire, after many wrote him off before training camp. I also think John Fox has a rejuvenating year and guides this team back to the playoffs.

By – Under.  Despite Kyle Orton being the firm starter at quarterback, if adversity arises, the fans will be calling for #15, as they should!  Give Tim Tebow the damn ball and let him lead you to the promise land Denver!  Since I don’t see that happening soon, Denver won’t be visiting any promise lands soon.

Jaguars (6 wins)

Dre – Push.  Another QB situation up in the air.  Will they let David Garrard go out there before they hand the keys over to their 1st round pick Gabbert?  Is MJD completely healthy?  If so, they get to 6 wins. Otherwise they will be drafting very high next season.

Chappy – Under, Any team on the brink of moving doesn’t seem to do that well. They were a nice story last season, but this year their schedule is much tougher. I feel like MJD is going to get hurt this year too…

By – Push.  6 wins hinges on Pocket Hercules’ health.  If he stays healthy, the Jags can get to 6 wins, despite being in a very tough division.  Big question is will David Garrard finish the season as the starting quarterback, or will future cornerstone Blaine Gabbert take over?

Chiefs (7.5 wins)

Dre – Over.  The Chiefs are up and coming, and they have made strides on both sides of the ball.  Their defense improved at each level, and their passing attack may comes close to rivaling their great running game.  They will be better than .500.

Chappy – Under, I wouldn’t be shocked if I got this pick wrong. They have a great running game, and their special teams is second to none. Like I said with the Chargers, the AFC West has a tough schedule this year outside the division.

MCeezy – Over, but when I say over, I mean 8 wins. Last year was huge for the Chiefs, and they’ve kept their roster mostly intact. It’s too bad Mike Vrabel retired, but the additions of Steve Breaston and Le’Ron McClain should give them some much needed depth.

By – Under.  What the Chiefs did last season was amazing, great turn around for a historic franchise.  I’m just not ready to believe they are legit.  I hope they prove me wrong, they have great pieces in place and are exciting to watch at times.  

Raiders (6.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  Sorry Raiders fans, but still no solid passing game (Campbell, really?) means regular 8 man fronts to stop Run DMC.  Everyone was shocked to see the Raiders have success last year.  There will be no shock this year, don’t worry.

Chappy – Over, obviously this a “hoping/homer” pick. They won 8 games last year, and even though they lost Nnamdi, the Raiders were 2-2 in games he didn’t play due to injury. Hue Jackson has the respect of this team, so hopefully he can take advantage of it.

MCeezy – Over. They lost their two most productive players in Nnamdi Asomugha and Zach Miller, but it’s a team game, and Hue Jackson seems poised to have the Raiders playing like a team once again. Richard Seymour led the defense last year, and he’s back. Darren McFadden has a broken face, but there’s no way he doesn’t come back strong this year, as he enters the prime of his career.

By – Under.  Sorry Chappy, sorry Matt.  Don’t worry, I’ll be much more cruel to my Niners.  Just don’t see anything positive going on for the Raiders. 

Bengals (5.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  This could be a sad year in Cincy.  I’m not sure what Carson Palmer is thinking.  Guess he’s just a quitter.  They are in a tough division and their schedule isn’t that bad, but they seriously downgraded at QB and their stud rookie WR AJ Green will go mostly unused.

Chappy – Under, this feels like a lock, although getting Ochocinco’s side show away from the team might help. The fact remains they are a team stuck in reverse.

MCeezy – Over. I don’t know what to make of this team, but just for the sake of argument, I’ll say they reach 6-8 wins. Most people see the loss of Ochocinco, and a huge dark cloud of uncertainty around Carson Palmer. On the flipside, they’ve also had an aggressive offseason, adding guys like Nate Clements, Bo Scaife, Thomas Howard, and Manny Lawson.

By – Under.  It seems impossible for a team to succeed when the players act like they don’t want to be there.  Well in the case of Carson Palmer, there is no acting involved!  A dysfunctional situation in a black and blue division leads me to believe the Bengals will have very few dubs this season.

Doin Championship Lines

This football season sure has flow by. Maybe it’s because the Raiders were relevant for so long I kind of forgot what it meant to care about the regular season. I ended the year making good picks with three straight winning weeks, as soon as the playoffs started, I went down faster than a Charlie Sheen threesome culminating with last weeks 0-4 performance. What does this tell me about making picks in the playoffs, don’t listen to any of the hype. Pick the opposite of your instincts, and you’ll be okay. Maybe that’s not the best strategy, but I have to change it up since nothing I’ve done the first two weeks is working.

.500 in the playoffs, I’ll take it.  The bonus here is I successfully picked the biggest upsets in the playoffs thus far, Seattle over New Orleans and the Jets over the Pats, so I’m some what satisfied with my overall performance in terms of picking winners this post season.  Only problem is, I have no winnings to show for it.  Maybe I should stick to two spot parlays over four.  Well, there’s only two games this weekend …

Green Bay (-3.5) @ Chicago

Chappy picks Chicago (+3.5). I really don’t want to pick Chicago, and would much rather see Aaron Rodgers make his first Super Bowl appearance, but it’s opposite day with the picks, so I guess I’m rolling with Obama’s favorite team. In two games during the regular season the Bears held Rodgers to 27 total points. This looks like a different QB than the last time they played though as he tore through Philly and Atlanta, but I’m confident the Bears D can stifle him enough to keep the score close. The Bears are a much better defensive unit than those first two teams Rodgers faced. Even though the lowly Seahawks put up 24 points on the Beard D, that game wasn’t as close as it looked in the final score. I’m far from a Cutler fan, but his season has been pretty good, and whether I like to admit it or not, he is a franchise QB. He’s made the best from what he had, which isn’t much outside of Matt Forte on offense. He’s definitely prone to make some ill advised throws here and there, but overall Cutler has grown a lot since last year’s abysmal season. I can’t remember a home team that was the #2 seed, and won their division, and was still a dog. That point alone sold me on this pick.

I like the Packers defense and offense better than Chicago’s, but that doesn’t always win you games. I think a few turnovers, and some solid returns from Hester set the Bears up for a win. These divisional games are usually very close, so it’s impossible to not take the points.

By picks Green Bay (-3.5). Normally I’d be shocked to find that a team that barely made the playoffs (albeit through no fault of their own, 2010 Seattle Seahawks) would be the favorite on the road against a team who finished second in the conference.  But not if said team had Aaron Rodgers as their QB.  I was high on Atlanta all season, and despite the fact that they weren’t the Pittsburgh Steelers on defense, the Falcons still did enough to hold off opponents for wins.  But Aaron Rodgers absolutely destroyed them.  He’s been picking apart most of the defenses he’s seen for a minute now, and is easily the hottest QB heading into the conference championships.  Combine that with the opportunistic defense of Green Bay, and the Packers have a winning combination.  If “loosey goosey” Jay Cutler rears his ugly head at all this weekend, the Pack will get a few picks and send the Bears into hibernation.

NY Jets @ Pittsburgh (-3.5)

Chappy picks NY Jets (+3.5). Should we start calling him the Sanchize again? He’s already graduated from my nickname earlier in the year the SanCheckdown. I may have fallen prey to the media surrounding Sanchez, because he never can do enough to get love from the writers, me being one of them. He has had a good year, but this weekend against the league’s best rush defense he is going to have to step up. I don’t see him going for over 300 yards or anything, but his ability to pick up third downs will be the difference in the game. We know the Jets will run whether they gain yards or not, so it’s going to be up to Sanchez to find ways to convert those third and longs. I think the Steelers will win, but since it’s opposite day I have to stick with the Jets. Plus, I don’t really like that everyone calls the Steelers Americas team. It’s better than Dallas being called Americas team, but nobody outside of the Saints last year should have that label, because is America really rooting for the Steelers? Laughable if you ask me…

By picks N.Y. Jets (+3.5). As much as I think Alex Smith could easily be Mark Sanchez if it were he riding the coat tails of that tremendous Jets’ defense, I must admit, that scoring drive to answer New England’s, culminating in a beautiful touchdown grab by Santonio Holmes was quite impressive.  Impressive considering what was at stake.  If they don’t score, I truly believe New England’s momentum carries them to a come back victory.  But Sanchez nipped that in the bud.  The Steelers are a wholenother monster.  Sanchez will not perform so eloquently against the best defense in the business.  But he won’t have to.  I think Sanchez has developed a comfort level in being the game manager/clutch timely passing QB.  His 4-1 playoff record would back that statement up.  As good as a defense is, you need someone who can make the plays when it counts on offense.  If Sanchez could be the equivalent to the 2000 Trent Dilfer, then by all means Jets fans, take it.  I think he’s almost there.  When everything’s said and done, I believe the Steelers are by far the better team.  But if I have to go with my gut instinct, I think the Jets pull this out.


Doin Wild Lines

6-0 last week. I can’t believe it took me all season to finally have a perfect week, but it actually happened! What was even better about the perfect week is that it put me over.500 for the season for the first time all season. It’s been a fun this year having By around to keep me motivated on making all these picks. Plus, it’s much more fun than caring about the Starbucks logo changing. Hopefully next year I can take By down!! Also, this week we were joined by Ryan Meehan from First Order Historians. I made the same picks over on his site if you want to check out even more reasons why I picked these teams check it out here.

I must admit, I’m a bit jealous Chaps had a perfect week, something that I was striving for all season long.  But I can’t complain about a 42-35-5 record on the season, the first time I’ve made picks in which I could reflect back on from a whole season’s worth.  It was real fun joining Chaps this season, and I definitely look forward to next (if there is one).  According to Roger Goodell, there will be.  But for now it’s money time, onto the playoffs!

Week 17 (Chap 6-0, By 2-2) Overall (Chap 48-47-3 By 42-35-5)

New Orleans (-10.5) @ Seattle

Chappy picks New Orleans -10.5. Is there any question on this one? Seattle shouldn’t be in the playoffs, and the Saints will show us all why. I understand that Drew Brees hasn’t had a career year, and has thrown quite a few picks this year, but you know what makes up for a subpar season? Winning in January. He’s shown he can do that, and I think he’ll open up a few big plays against a not very impressive Seahawks defense. Plus, the Saints have had the same problems as two other playoff teams during the regular season, injuries to the offense (Packers and Colts), but were good enough to still win 10 games. I feel like injuries were the reason the Falcons are widely conceived to be a much better team. Now, Brees has most of his weapons back at the right time, so we will soon see who is best, I think they’d play next round.

By picks Seattle (+10.5). What!?  I stated how much I hate Pete Carrol before right?  So why the contradiction here?  Why would I pick his team to win?  Quite simply put, this game can only head in one of two directions.  Either the Saints completely mop the floor with the Seahawks winning by some 40 points, or the Seahawks pull off one of the greatest upsets in playoff history by dethroning the champs.  There’s no in between in my eyes.  There’s no Seahawks lose a tight one.  And as much as I love Drew Brees and despise Cheat Carrol, I’m hoping Seattle shows some NFC West pride and represents our division well.  Otherwise the NFL might have themselves a BCS like controversy in terms of how they decide playoff participants going forward.  Seahawks have nothing to lose here, which makes them dangerous, I like their chances.

Meehan picks New Orleans -10.5.   The Seahawks ended the year with a -79 point differential, and to make matters even more depressing, lost every one of those nine games by 15 points or more.  Yikes.  Later on, I’ll discuss why this upsets me so much.  The Seahawks shouldn’t get their “12th man” advantage, because this game should be in New Orleans.  They didn’t beat anybody good and all of the good teams they played they got smoked.  Now, I’m picking the Saints, but I will say that if an upset this weekend has to happen it’s this one here. Prediction:  New Orleans Saints 32, Seattle Seahawks 15

NY Jets @ Indianapolis (-2.5) Continue reading


Doin Lines Week 16

I'm Rick James Bitch!

I'm Rick James Bitch!

4-2 last week has the .500 benchmark more reachable since week 3. Makes me feel all warm and fuzzy finally having back to back winning weeks. Between Christmas shopping, traveling, and all the other holiday stuff I don’t  really have a lot of time to think about and/or look at what is going on with a lot of these games with injuries and kind of stuff, so hopefully I’ve gained enough knowledge over the season to get me through this week without reading any previews, and go on an actual win streak.

3-2 last week, once again above the .500 mark which has been the norm for me as of late.  Like Chappy said, the holiday’s have gotten the best of me time wise, and aside from some news tickers I’ve read, I don’t know what’s going on in football as of late.  Going with the gut instincts again this week.  Happy holidays everyone from the Doin Work crew!

Week 15 (By 3-2, Chap 4-2) Overall (By 38-32-5, Chap 40-42-3)

Minnesota @ Philadelphia (-14.5)

Chappy picks Philadelphia (-14.5). Let’s see. Explosive offense meets a team that just got blown out by the Bears. This game might be a little watchable if Favre was in there. Actually these past few weeks when I’ve seen Favre on the field it was almost painful to watch. I have no idea why Favre is even still trying to play out the season when it looks like it hurts when someone touches him. I guess he’s a football addict. Anyways, this should be a lock for a 28 point win for the Eagles. They do everything better than the Vikes, and if AP is out still, there’s zero chance of them staying close.

Washington @ Jacksonville (-7)

Chappy picks Jacksonville (-7). Regardless of who the Redskins start in this game at QB, one thing has become clear to me. The Redskins are divided. This never bodes well for any team when half of them don’t want to do anything for the coach, and can you really blame them? I’d quit too, which makes me want to take the Jags who still have a chance to make the playoffs if the Colts slip up.

By picks Jacksonville (-7). This was not the season I envisioned for the Redskins after they acquired Donovan McNabb and Mike Shanahan this off-season.  I figured they’d be right in the mix for NFC East supremacy, or at least in the Wild Card hunt.  Instead, with the benching of McNabb and the “Fat” Albert Haynesworth saga, the Redskins have become the ugly siblings of the division.  They’re a train wreck to look at.  The Jags will most likely be without their “Pocket Hercules” this week, but I still they take care of the ‘Skins rather easily.  Bare in mind the Jags are still very much in contention for their division crown.

San Francisco @ St. Louis (-2.5)

By picks San Francisco (+2.5). It’s been a rare occasion this season, when the 49ers were not favorites.  This could be one game in which I wouldn’t be surprised if they were.  The NFC West is so god awful that if you had to place them in a college conference, they’d be in the WAC.  Because that’s what they are, wack.  With that said, the 49ers still have a chance to make the playoffs with a 7-9 record, and at this point, I think it would be funny if they did.  Troy Smith, the better Smith is back at the helm for S.F., which means we have a puncher’s chance.

Seattle @ Tampa Bay (-6)

Chappy picks Tampa Bay -6. Not sure why, but the Seahawks are still in the hunt for the NFC Worst. They probably wont even lose any ground with a bad game this weekend. I’m still not completely sold on Tampa, but they are about 50 times better than Seattle is. I think Pete should look into getting Baloo from Tailspin to check out this seahawk, because it been going downhill.

N.Y. Jets @ Chicago (-1)

By picks the N.Y. Jets (+1). What better way to show your support for your coach’s foot fetish, than to give the Bears a good ass kicking?  And to kick that ass, you need a foot.  All joking aside, this game has bore fest written all over it, unless you’re a fan of low scoring, unimaginative offenses.  The Bears do try to open things up on occasion, but they won’t have success this week.  Not against that stingy Jets’ D.  As far as the Jets offense, Mark Sanchez couldn’t consistently hit an open receiver if they were in a sparring match.  Yet, the Jets find a way to win close ones.  If the spread is -1 for Chicago, the Jets should win by 2.

Indianapolis @ Oakland (+3)

Chappy picks Oakland +3. The Raiders show up more when they are the underdog with less to play for. They can’t seem to play big when it counts. Call this one the shocker of the weekend as Jacksonville gets closer to representing the AFC South. Plus I’m a homer, and when in doubt go with your team when they are getting points at home!

By picks Indianapolis (-3). Sorry Chappy, Matt, and all Raider Nation faithful out there, but I don’t care if this game is being played in Oak Town, the Colts finally find themselves in the driver’s seat in the race for tops of the their division, and I expect them to put the pedal to the metal.  For what it’s worth, I believe the Raiders will put up at least 24 points against the Colts, and Darren McFadden will continue to beast it up.  But Manning and company will drop no less than 35 points against the silver and black.  Sorry buddies 😦

San Diego @ Cincinnati (+7.5)

Chappy picks San Diego -7.5. Easiest pick of the day. The Chargers rule December, and VJ looks like he has his swagger back. Who needs Gates right now the way this offense is moving the ball. Cincy is about as bad as it gets. The team By and I dubbed the most woeful in the league (Carolina) looks better than this bunch right now. TO is out for the year, so I see the whole team mailing it in!

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-2.5)

Chappy picks Atlanta (-2.5). No reason to think Atlanta can be slowed down now with home field on the line. The Saints have had as good a season as you can have coming off a Super Bowl win, but since they couldn’t beat the dirty birds in their own house I don’t see them doing it in Atlanta. I’m hoping for some offensive explosions from both these teams that seem to put up big numbers week in and week out. Is it weird that no body mentions Matt Ryan in the discussion for MVP? Sure his numbers aren’t eye popping, but he’s leading a 12-2 team!

By picks New Orleans (+2.5). I can’t believe I’m going against Matty Ice, but the Saints win this week.  Trust me, it won’t be anything Matty Ice does wrong, he’ll be the smooth, silky assassin he’s been all season.  I just think Drew Brees will be playing like a man possessed this week.  Division title hopes are still on the line, coming off a tough loss in Baltimore, Drew Brees has a lot at stake, and we’ve seen how he plays when a lot’s at stake.  This match will be the opposite of the N.Y. Jets/Chicago game, a high scoring slug fest.  Saints squeak by.


Doin Lines Week 15

3-2 last week was okay. I guess it’s better than a losing week, but not by much. The season is getting interesting as we head down the home stretch, but after my Raiders lost last week it made me not pay attention to the happenings going on in the NFL during the week. I’ll call it a mini-depression that only comes when your team’s hopes are dashed. I guess there’s a little hope, but not much, so for now I’m hoping they can sweep their divisional games for the first time in decades.

Don’t have much to say as a prelude to my picks but look at that overall record.  I’m smiling from ear to ear considering where I stood in the early part of the season.  The best part about my picks these past few weeks is they’ve actually won me some coin.  Being that we just finished our “Naughty” or “Nice” list, and Christmas is around the corner I think it’s only right I ask Santa for one thing.  No 2011 NFL lock out.  And no 2011-2012 NBA lock out.  O.K. sorry Santa, that’s two things.  I got greedy.

Week 14 (By 3-1-1, Chap 3-2) Overall (By 35-30-5, Chap 36-40-3)

Houston @ Tennessee (-1.5)

By picks Houston (+1.5).  This might be fool’s gold being that Matt Schaub hasn’t exactly been the model of consistency this season, but take away that horrible decision to pass it to the wrong team in extra innings, and Schaub played a spectacular game against the Ravens last Monday, which is why I’ll take Houston this week.  Both teams aren’t going anywhere this season, but the Texans have to do enough for us to believe that next year is “their” year.  And so a good showing on the road versus a division rival should suffice.  For the Titans, my advice to them would be tank the season and hit rock bottom.  That way a mediocre 2011 (if there is a season) would be enough to satisfy the Tennessee fans.  I think they’ll take my advice.

Arizona (-2.5) @ Carolina

Chappy picks Carolina (+2.5). This might be one of the crappiest match ups in recent memory. I haven’t really watched either of these teams much this year, because they haven’t been worthy of three hours of attention. Carolina has been running the ball a little better with Stewart finding some holes, and Steve Smith being back might help the offense a little more. That being said they still suck. The Cardinals are in last place in the NFC Worst, but for some inexplicable reason are still in the playoff hunt. This is the first time all year I’ve picked Carolina, so I had to take them at least once, right!?! Arizona is going across the country to play a morning game, and with bad teams that’s a big deal.

By picks Carolina +2.5. Like Chappy said, this possibly is the worse NFL match up all season.  Scratch that, dare I say, all time?  It’s hard to believe the Arizona Cardinals were one or two plays from hoisting the Lombardy Trophy two years ago.  A lot of things have factored into their down fall since then, but the main reason is obvious.  Cutting Matt Leinhart.  What were the Cards thinking!?  All jokes aside, all this Cardinals losing has strengthen Kurt Warner’s case towards Canton.  I don’t know of one thing the Cards do well besides lose, and so despite the Panthers sucking major balls too, I’ve got to go with Carolina at home here.  I guess Jonathan Stewart’s been running well lately.  There.  That’s a better reason to go with the Panthers.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-5)  Continue reading


Doin Lines Week 14

A 2-4 week has me thinking I will never crack the .500 mark this season. Luckily I hit a parlay to break even money wise, but I’m sure you all could care less about that. I think everyone has found this season a little strange in that there aren’t a ton of contenders that cover the spread every week, and looking through the lines I was shocked to see that there wasn’t one double digit favorite. What does this mean? Even the odds makers are a little befuddled by this season! The highest spread is New Orleans -9 at home. Speaking of NO, is it just me or are they the least hyped defending champs ever? I don’t hear the morning FOX, CBS, or ESPN gangs raving about anything the Saints are doing, and aren’t they the champs until someone knocks them off? I guess not in this Twitter age. The Patriots and Jets must be the only teams worthy of our attention, so the networks have led me to believe. I just can’t get over how many people were on their bandwagon last year and now, no love at all. What gives?!?

What gives is right!  As in, what gives with a 2-3 record last week!?  Well I am a firm believer in karma, or getting your “just dues”, and the way I was approaching my picks last week, like it was some sort of guaranteed 5-0 event, let’s just say I got what I deserved with those results.  Time to get myself back on the positive side this week.  On a side note, the Bo Sox just signed Carl Crawford!?  Looks like Bean Town’s the new “Evil Empire” in baseball …

Week 13 (By 2-3, Chap 2-4) Overall (By 32-29-4, Chap 33-38-3)

Indianapolis @ Tennessee (+3)

By picks Indy (-3). I will beat this horse dead, but I’m not going to stop riding it.  Wait, does that even make sense?  I guess what I’m trying to say is, I’m not jumping off the Peyton Manning ship just yet, especially in a must win scenario at a division rival.  As horrible as Manning has been these past three weeks, he’s still one of the greatest QB’s to ever play the game, which in my book, means something.  He will right the ship this week and trust his guys more.  On the other side of the ball, Tennessee is a mess.  Vince Young, Randy Moss, need I say more?

Oakland @ Jacksonville (-4) Continue reading


Doin Lines Week 13

Another 4-1 week for me?  My confidence is so high though, that I dare call that average.  Chappy and I have had a pretty busy week with *gasp* work (can you believe it?) so we threw around the idea of “Doin One Liners” for the weekly edition of “Doin Lines”.  Basically, we state our reason for taking a team in one or two brief sentences.  I’m actually going to try this …

3-3 wasn’t too bad last week since I was sure I’d have a losing week, either way I’d say it was a better day than the guy pictured up top here. Like By said it was a rough week of work, so sometimes the blogging time suffers. Oh well, gotta make that paper to have some money to bet on these games.

Week 12 (By 4-1, Chap 3-3) Overall (By 30-26, Chap 31-34-3)

Buffalo @ Minnesota (-5.5)

By picks Buffalo (+5.5). Minnesota got their new coach a nice win in his debut, but now it’s back to mediocre football for the Vikes.  The Bills will win so Steve Johnson can start thanking the man upstairs again, instead of blaming him.  

Washington @ NY Giants (-7)

Chappy picks NYG (-7). They lost to Philly and Dallas, so I think they are due to put a hurting on a division foe, if they really are a good team that is. Too bad this stadium is not much of a home field advantage…

Denver @ Kansas City (-8.5) Continue reading


Doin Lines Week 11

Maybe Jared needs to bring back the mullet lines to get Minny their mojo back...

A ho-hum 2-3 week has handed me the feeling that I’ll never figure this year out. Should I quit? Probably, but I’m addicted to losing money! My recent pattern has shown that I will have one good week then one bad week, so the good news is, I should have a good one this weekend. Now that we are past all the bye weeks, there’s a lot more games to pick from, so hopefully picking out the winners won’t be as tough.

I’m so close I can smell it.  I’m going with my usual five picks this week, but along with choosing by gut instinct, I’m using deductive reasoning.  Well, at least I think I am.  I swear I’m better than what my record indicates, but enough talking.  Time to show and prove.  These next five weeks are going to be killer.  Forget above .500, I’m going to the .600 club.  Who’s coming with me!?

Week 11 (Chap 2-3, By 3-2) Overall (Chap 24-29-3, By 22-24-4)

Oakland @ Pittsburgh (-7)

Chappy picks Oakland (+7). I’m not overly confident in this pick, especially since I think the Steelers are one of the best teams in the league. I do however like the Raiders coming off their bye week. They are healthy for the first time since week 4, and get back a slew of starters. Most importantly Nnamdi, Zach Miller, Louis Murphy, John Henderson, and Chaz Schillens are all going to be playing. Their best receiver and top targeted tight end should improve the passing game, and the way Brady picked them apart with the two tight end sets, we will need Campbell to have all the weapons possible. Remembering back to last year the game that got us to believe in Gradkowski? Well, if you don’t, it was in Pittsburgh, and they won behind Louis Murphy going off for 128 yards and two TD’s. On the Steelers side of the ball they could be without Hines Ward, which would give Mike Wallace a date with Nnamdi this weekend. I like our chances with that match up. The Raiders are third in the league in sacks, so if the Steelers do win, it will be because of Mendenhall carrying the load. Take the points, seven is a more than generous amount from the oddsmakers.

Green Bay (-3) @ Minnesota

By picks Green Bay (-3). I’m not a big fan of kicking someone when they’re down.  Unless that someone is Brett Favre.  Listen, I’m not one to pretend I’m unaware of his greatness, but if you’re a egotistical princess, well, I just won’t like you.  But, that’s not why I’m picking Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this week.  Minnesota is about as dysfunctional as a team can be right now.  When players publicly, but anonymously rip their coach apart, you can’t help but think they’re through playing for him.  The Vikings might drop this game big, on purpose.  I’m just saying.

Baltimore (-10) @ Carolina Continue reading


Doin Lines Week 10

We're about to make it rain this weekend!!

Woot woot! 4-1 last week! My best showing of the year as far as I can recall. Too bad I ran out of money on the tables in Vegas to throw bets down on Sunday. Oh well, life goes on. It’s amazing how different this year has been in that, I don’t really care about my fantasy teams or my bets nearly as much as years past. I guess that just goes to show you that when my team (Raiders) are doing well, nothing else matters to me in the football world. I kind of forgot what that felt like, and let me tell you, it’s a sweet feeling I was missing in life! I still like winning money, so I’m going to try to follow up a great week of picks with another one for back to back winners the first time this season!

Congrats to Chappy’s 4-1 last week!  As for me, 1-3-1 doesn’t quite have the same ring to it.  What sucks the most was that I was extremely confident I would finally top .500 this season with last week’s picks.  I guess the only good that came out of it was that my suggestion on taking the Jets to win in Detroit actually helped Chris out.  Anyway, it’s back to the drawing board for me.  Perhaps I need a trip to Vegas …

Week 9 (Chap 4-1, By 1-3-1) Overall (Chap 22-26-3, By 19-22-4)

Baltimore @ Atlanta (-1)

Chappy picks Baltimore (+1). It’s rare the NFL Network gets a game that’s worthy of watching. Fortunately for them they drew a great one this Thursday when two first place teams meet. Will the Ravens spit on the dirty bird? I think they might, and it’s going to take a lot of loogies to pull out a victory on the road. Neither team has injuries, so this should be a great game with all the starters out there. This is a battle for the future as Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco try to prove who is the better QB of that 2008 draft class. Atlanta is 4-0 at home, but three of those contest came down to the last minute. I don’t see this one being any different except that they will finally be on the losing side of things.

By picks Atlanta (-1): What a dream match up between two title contenders.  This could very well be the prequel to the Super Bowl this season.  I like Joe Flacco about as much as the next guy, but I’m a big believer of Matt Ryan and his upside.  This game is pretty much a straight bet, and so the deciding factor for me comes down to which team has more weapons.  With Michael Turner quietly having himself a great year, and with Roddy White not so quietly emerging as the league’s best receiver, I give the edge to the Falcons.  Besides, I can’t ride them all year long to jump ship now.

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis (-7)

By picks Indianapolis (-7): I got it half right last week, I knew the Colts would fall in Philly, but I thought Philly would cover the spread.  Damn those odd makers, they’re really good.  Anyway, give Cincy credit last Monday, as they fought back valiantly to make it interesting against the Steelers.  But with Cincy on a short week, and with Peyton fuming from the loss, I predict the Colts make mince meat out of the Bengals in week ten.  Colts by 17.

Houston @ Jacksonville (-1.5) Continue reading