Tag Archives: week 5

Doin Lines Week 5

Chappy: I’m not sure what exactly is going on through the first four weeks, but I like it, especially since it’s all about offensive battles opposed to defensive battles. Is it bad the league doesn’t care about defensive rules? Who knows, but I’m glad to be a collector rather than a giver from the bookie on Mondays. I can’t remember a start to the gambling season like the one I’ve been on since I was a waiter in college. Back then I had no idea I was being sucked in by an unusual lucky streak to start off my football betting career. Just after having said all that, this week’s lines are tough with only three lines over 6 points. That bodes well for the watchability of all the match ups this weekend.

By:  Is that Chappy on fire with a winning ratio of two to one, and me two games above .500?  Yeah, that’s us.  I guess we kind of know a little bit what we’re talking about here when it comes to these lines, huh?  I’m sure it’s mostly luck, but still, I’ll take it.  Unfortunately when I looked at my parlay card this week, I lost all confidence, as the lines are killer.  I can honestly say I don’t stand firm behind any of my picks this week.  I’m merely crossing my fingers and hoping for the best.  On to the lines ~

Last Week: Chappy (4-1) By (3-1)

Overall: Chappy (12-6-1) By (9-7) 

New Orleans @ Carolina (+6.5)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-6.5). Last weekend at the bar, I was fixated on the TV showing Cam taking on the Bears. He’s already one of those athletes that make it hard to take your eye off of. He had a pretty good game, and could’ve won it if it weren’t for a Devin Hester return. Anyways, as much as I like Cam, he won’t beat New Orleans. The Saints defense isn’t highly thought of after that first game against the unstoppable Packers, but since that game they’ve been pretty solid. I feel like the Saints will be able to find a way to stop Steve Smith, because who else does Cam throw to? Drew Brees teaches Cam a trick or two while beating them by more than a TD.

By picks Carolina (+7).  Carolina sports a 1-3 record, which is not very good, but if you delve deeper you will find they’re better than what their current record indicates.  They haven’t lost a game by more than a touchdown, and they’ve had opportunities to win late in each contest they’ve played this season.  They’re currently 1-1 at home, but the loss came at the hands of Green Bay, no harm in that.  While I still think Drew Brees and company pull out the win, I’m convinced that a crowd all abuzz about Cam Newton pushes the Panthers to take the Saints to the limit.  To me, this game has game winning field goal written all over it, which is beneficial to Carolina either way.

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-3)

By picks Indianapolis (-3).  This is a disgusting game to tackle, but I’m feeling dirty.  I know the Chiefs finally got off the schneid last week at home versus Minnesota, but it was against Minnesota.  That’s got to be the most shameful way of getting your first win.  By beating Minnesota.  In fact, the only more shameful way of getting your first win is by beating the Chiefs.  After they beat Minnesota.  And that’s exactly what’s going to happen Sunday for the Colts.  Listen, Curtis Painter didn’t show me a lot last Monday, but he did show me something, he showed he can keep Tampa’s defense honest with some decent throws.  The Colts play makers are still there, and perhaps Pierre Garcon’s outburst will light a fire to them and give them some belief that they can still be relevant on the field without Manning.  Ultimately, it just comes down to me thinking the Colts have got to get their win in now, or else the talks of a 0-16 season start stirring.  Oh, and my apologies to the Chiefs, Colts and Vikings fans out there.  What I said about them is mean.

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville (-2.5)

Chappy picks Cincinnati (+2.5). When I first read this line, I thought it was backwards and was still thinking of picking Cincy. Andy Dalton feels like he’s moving in the right direction with AJ Green already being his go to receiver, while Blaine Gabbert can’t seem to get any solid footing in his limited time in the NFL. Gabbert has played better than Luke McCown, but is that really saying anything positive? The Bengals just beat the up and coming Bills last weekend, and have been close in every game, so there’s no reason to not take the points here. They kinda remind me of the cardiac cats back when Carson was leading the team. Maybe they rebuilt faster than we thought!

By picks Jacksonville (-2.5). I read what Chappy wrote about this match up, and I couldn’t agree more.  Except in the end result.  While the Bengals are the better team and have a nice piece in place in Andy Dalton, and an absolutely unstoppable force in the making with AJ Green, they’re still a relatively young and inexperienced team on offense, which means they don’t know how to pull away from teams they’re supposed to beat.  Cincinnati’s record shows they’ve only been in close games this season, and a close game means Jacksonville will utilize the run more.  So we’ll probably see more Pocket Hercules from the Jags this week as oppose to last.  Despite Blaine Gabbert’s mediocre start, his upside is far greater than that of Andy Dalton, and I have a gut feeling he flashes a glimpse of what he’s capable of this week.  My prediction, home field wins out, and MJD’s punishes the Bengals for a late costly mistake.  Jags by 4.

 

New York Jets @ New England (-9)

Chappy picks New England (-9). It’s been crazy how lifeless the Jets have been so far this season. I thought they’d be playing a lot tougher, but maybe it’s just time to blow them up and start over. The last time the Jets went to New England they beat them in the playoffs. Don’t think New England doesn’t remember that, and you never want a pissed off Pats team coming your way. The trip before that one to Foxboro was in the regular season and ended in a 45-3 win for the Pats. I see this game being more like that one than the playoff game. Then again, with Nick Mangold back being able to keep Sanchez off his backside, and if Jerod May can’t play they could put up some serious keep up points. I’m still upset the Raiders didn’t take more advantage of Mayo being out.

Philadelphia @ Buffalo (+3)

By picks Philadelphia (-3).  I have too much personal shit invested into this match up.  There, that’s the disclaimer.  If I influence your picks at all, perhaps it’s best you stay away from this one.  First off, Buffalo was up 17-3 into the third quarter versus the Bengals last week.  With the other picks on my parlay card winning handedly already, it seemed like foregone conclusion I would be getting paid out.  Long story short, the Bills blew it.  Now I’m pissed at them.  Don’t come between me and my money Buffalo.  Don’t do it.  Meanwhile, the Eagles decided to demonstrate the fundamentals of a melt down against my 49ers, allowing us to somehow win a game we were dominated in.  Thank you Philly, I now like you.  Unfortunately for the Eagles, the Cowboys decided to upstage them in the choke department, proving once again, division rivals will go to great lengths to out do each other.  In all seriousness, this week the Eagles will prove they are as good as advertised, while the Bills get exposed for the pretenders they really are.  (Assholes).

TEBOW, TEBOW, TEBOW!!

San Diego @ Denver (+4)

Chappy picks San Diego (-4). I’m actually hoping I’m wrong with this pick. I’d lose a bet to see the Chargers lose, but in realityville, I don’t see it happening. SD hasn’t really played that well, but they’ve slept walked through an easy early schedule to a 3-1 record. I hope there’s no Tebow chants, because that means the Broncos are losing. If there are some Tebow chants, at least I’ll get a laugh out of it and a winning bet. Rivers is having an off year for some reason, but there’s no place like Denver to get yourself going. I’m sure they’ll take a thing or two out of Green Bay’s playbook after showing them how to put up 49 on them last weekend.

Chicago @ Detroit (-5.5)

Chappy picks Detroit (-5.5). I can’t jump off the bandwagon of a team that’s 3-1 ATS for me. I think if this was in Chicago, I’d hesitate on this pick a lot more, but in the Lions only home game so far this year they put up 43 on the Chiefs. I think the home crowd helps younger teams more than it would an older team, which is why I picking them in this game. Plus, Detroit’s front four against the Bears O-line = Cutler on his back all game long. Chicago plays their cover-2 all game long, so I see Calvin catching a short pass, and breaking free to watch himself score a TD on the Ford Field Megatron.

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Raiders Catch the White Unicorn

It’s been a looong time since the Raiders have beaten the Chargers. So long that I couldn’t even remember the last time I was able to talk sh** to my Chargers friends, and one of the reasons I picked the Chargers to piss on our rug in Week 5, but amazingly that didn’t happen! I guess I was just used to it, and even turned down the offer to go see this game live with MCeezy, because I figured I’d just be disappointed if I went. Their losing streak to the Chargers has gone longer than I’ve lived in Socal (6 years), and it was great to fire out those texts immediately following the game for once instead of just receiving them, and responding with something along the lines of “Congratulations, that was a shocker”. For the past decade the Chargers were the white unicorn that always seemed to get away. Yesterday with some improbable special teams plays, and just enough offense we outlasted that lightning bolt of a unicorn. It was kind of like how the Chiefs beat the Chargers on that opening Monday night game. Were the Raiders the best team on the field yesterday? Probably not, but they showed for the first time that they can close out a game, and will play the entire 60 minutes. Aside from week one, the best thing I’ve seen about this season is that they don’t give up even when they have some bad breaks that don’t go their way, a far cry from teams past. They actually seem to care, which might even make Raider Nation come back out for the home games and maybe save them from a blackout or two! How can I say the Nation is back? We had some high expectations for improvement this year (like me predicting a AFC Championship appearance), but there was one moment yesterday when I knew the fans had turned. Instead of booing the Raiders off the field they decided to throw stuff at Rivers all game long from the stands! That’s the classy way I remember the Raider Nation behaving, and I couldn’t have been more proud that they were doing it to Phillip cry me a river!

Why did the Raiders finally win this year against the Chargers? Aside from having some breaks go their way (blocked punts, Rivers fumble not being called a pass in a correct ruling of the tuck rule), but I believe the true reason was because they didn’t have LT. Tomlinson would always torch us to the tune of 150 yards, and two or three TD’s every time he played against Oakland. I know that LT went over 200 yards rushing against us on many occasions. LT always had an extra spring in his step when he faced the Raiders. This year is different though for the Chargers, they need to throw the ball way more than even their norm (which was a lot). Ryan Matthews was their leading rusher with 59 yards on 9 carries yesterday!?! They had the lead for nearly all the second half, and their top rusher only had 9 carries!?! Tolbert had 12 carries for 11 yards, but when you’re ahead don’t you think one of those guys should hit the 20’s in carries? As sweet as their passing game may be, they need someone to get some yards on the ground. Matthews might be good, but this year the Chargers are truly missing their running game of years past. Norv, should worry that Rivers arm might fall off throwing it 50 times a game. I’m happy they managed to pull out that win, and it’s a good sign of things to come as they fell just short against Houston and Arizona, so the way I see it the Raiders really are on the rise, and any rise is better than none. Who knows, now that the Chargers are 0-2 in the division, maybe the Raiders have a shot at the playoffs. With all the parody in this league, anything can happen, even at 2-3.


Doin Lines Week 5

That football is doing some serious lines!

Looks like we both need to re-evaluate how we are making these picks. We got one right out of ten last week, setting the lowest week total of wins since I’ve started doing this. Just like New Orleans picked itself up after Hurricane Katrina, we will have to do the same. We just need to hope that this turnaround happens a little faster than the real life one. This losing streak is showing me that no matter how much you think you know going into a game, you don’t really know crap compared to those lines makers. Just like the Geek and Sammy we have proven that we are good a pickin losers so far. It can’t be this bad for the rest of the year can it!?! I doubt it, so on to the picks.

What is the writing equivalent to being so ashamed, that you can’t even show your face in public?  Would it be, being so ashamed that you wouldn’t want to let anyone read your words?  Because that is how I feel after three consecutive, embarrassing weeks of football picks.  If you fancy my words, or my humor, or perhaps lack there of, I appreciate your loyalty to me.  But please, I beg of you, please do not read my picks for … *gasp* my picks.  After going 1/5 last week, it absolutely dawned on me.  I suck at this.  I suck at this bad.  Do I give up?  No.  But I am not cruel enough to wish bad upon our readers, so I hope you all either run as far away as you can from my picks, or simply pick the opposite.  My picks should have yellow caution tape surrounding them.  With that said, here are this week’s losers …

Last Week (Chappy 0-5, By 1-4) Overall (Chappy 8-14-1, By 6-12-2)

Denver (+7) @ Baltimore Continue reading