Doin Lines Week 5

That football is doing some serious lines!

Looks like we both need to re-evaluate how we are making these picks. We got one right out of ten last week, setting the lowest week total of wins since I’ve started doing this. Just like New Orleans picked itself up after Hurricane Katrina, we will have to do the same. We just need to hope that this turnaround happens a little faster than the real life one. This losing streak is showing me that no matter how much you think you know going into a game, you don’t really know crap compared to those lines makers. Just like the Geek and Sammy we have proven that we are good a pickin losers so far. It can’t be this bad for the rest of the year can it!?! I doubt it, so on to the picks.

What is the writing equivalent to being so ashamed, that you can’t even show your face in public?  Would it be, being so ashamed that you wouldn’t want to let anyone read your words?  Because that is how I feel after three consecutive, embarrassing weeks of football picks.  If you fancy my words, or my humor, or perhaps lack there of, I appreciate your loyalty to me.  But please, I beg of you, please do not read my picks for … *gasp* my picks.  After going 1/5 last week, it absolutely dawned on me.  I suck at this.  I suck at this bad.  Do I give up?  No.  But I am not cruel enough to wish bad upon our readers, so I hope you all either run as far away as you can from my picks, or simply pick the opposite.  My picks should have yellow caution tape surrounding them.  With that said, here are this week’s losers …

Last Week (Chappy 0-5, By 1-4) Overall (Chappy 8-14-1, By 6-12-2)

Denver (+7) @ Baltimore

Chappy picks Baltimore -7, It’s no secret, I hate the Broncos, so in any circumstance it’s hard for me to pick them, and if I’m picking the Ravens you should probably take the Broncos with plenty of confidence. After the Ravens took down my only gravy train (Pittsburgh) last week, I guess I should jump on the Ravens bandwagon. Ray Rice will be healthy this week, which should be a nice boost to the offense that actually moved the ball against the Steelers stingy defense. The Ravens offense hasn’t looked as explosive as I thought it would be, but going against a Broncos team that doesn’t play much defense, they should be able to put up the points. The Broncos offense has lit up people this year much to my surprise, but they haven’t exactly faced a physical defense like the Ravens yet. I’m sure that Orton will have more problems against Baltimore than he did with Tennessee, Seattle, Indy, and Jacksonville. Orton struggles for the first time this season, and the Ravens score plenty to cover. Plus, there’s no way Orton can hold the league lead in passing yards much more than four weeks in, right!?!

Jacksonville @ Buffalo (+1.5)

By picks Jacksonville (-1.5),  Buffalo is not a good team, but I like the “fire sale” approach they’ve applied recently.  Cutting Trent Edwards and shipping Marshawn Lynch is a good start to rebuilding around Ryan Fitzpatrick and C.J. Spiller … well, at least just C.J. Spiller.  Nonetheless, they aren’t and won’t be good this season, and so despite being at home, I’d like to go with the team that just beat the Colts.  Worse case scenario, these two teams are somewhat even, and so I’m just treating it like an even spread and going with the team that should win flat out.  Here’s your cue to pick the opposite.

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-8)

By picks Indy (-8), Now, how does the undefeated team become eight point dogs?  When they go up against a stunned Colts team after an upset.  Remember when I said the Colts would run off ten straight after dropping the opener?  Well the Jags kind of threw a wrench in that program, and so there’s nothing worse than going into Indy’s home when they are pissed.  Despite the Colts mediocre record, Manning is still putting up God-like numbers, and once the rest of the team catches up, the Colts will be amongst the favorites to win it all again.  In fact, they might be the most favored 2-2 team ever, because no one’s panicked about them.  No one’s abandoned the Colts ship, and nor they should.  I applaud KC for their impressive start, but the buck stops here.  They’ll fall, hard.

Chappy picks Kansas City (+8), As much as I hate to pick against Colts, and just as much I hate picking one of the Raiders rivals, but I have a funny feeling about this game. The Colts end up playing in a lot of close games, and inexplicably lost to Jacksonville last week. I think the Chiefs are slightly better than a touchdown underdog. Coming off a bye week, the Chiefs really have no excuse not to be prepared for this matchup, and should give Indy all they can handle. They frustrated Rivers and the Chargers, they also thumped the 49ers, so I’m starting to think they might actually be kind of good… Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones will give the Colts all they can handle on the ground. Throw in a couple Dexter McCluster plays, and the Chiefs cover this spread! Plus, I wanted to guarantee that at least one of us would pick a winner this weekend! Maybe I should’ve picked a game that had a half point in the spread. That being said Colts win by 8 for a push.

St. Louis @ Detroit (-3)

By picks St. Louis (+3), Sam Bradford looks like a pro.  I know Steven Jackson has been hobbled, and he was supposed to be the focal point of the Rams offense, but Bradford has kind of already made me forget about him.  It wasn’t too long ago that the critics were unsure if Bradford’s shoulder was fully healed, and if it could hold up during the course of his first season, let alone his entire career … but now he’s bombing 40+ passes a game.  With that said, I’m confident his physical game will hold up, but after watching him take apart his past two opponents, I know his mental game is there too.  This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Rams, but when you’re in the NFC West, rebuilding is the same thing as contending.  Right now, believe it or not, the Rams lead the division.  As far as Detroit is concerned, they’re a much better team than their record suggests, and I can’t help but wonder how good they’d be with Stafford taking snaps.  But one thing is certain about the Lions, they know how to lose tight games.  I have to go with history here.

Green Bay (-2.5) @ Washington

No wonder Cooley got caught with his junk out, he wears short shorts!

Chappy picks Green Bay -2.5, I feel like this one has upset written all over it, but for some stupid reason I’m sticking with Green Bay. The Washington defense is terrible at defending the pass, and Aaron Rodgers just happens to be pretty damn good at getting the ball to his receivers. The Packers never really run the ball, so Ryan Grant’s injury doesn’t really matter, and that will neutralize the Skins actually decent run defense. We know Green Bay is good, and Washington is a question mark, so I’ll go with good. The Skins lost to St. Louis, but beat Dallas and Philly, so I should stay away from this one but I won’t. Does this mean that the NFC East sucks? Maybe, and just writing that makes me happy. Ryan Torian might be the key for Washington. If he can slow this game down, they could take out the Packers, but if the Pack puts up points in bunches I don’t see Washington keeping up.

Atlanta @ Cleveland (+3)

By picks Atlanta (-3),  Atlanta is the real deal.  Well Matt Ryan is the real deal, and as long as he’s going good, which is most of the time, then Atlanta wins.  The only blemish to the Falcon’s record was their opener at Pittsburgh in which their offense was completely neutralized by the Steel Curtain 2.0 … but most teams go through similar experiences when going up against Pittsburgh.  After that, Ryan and the Falcons have put on a clinic on how to win, including a big win at defending Super Bowl Champs, New Orleans’ home.  I guess Cleveland’s a tough team, and no easy win, but I like Atlanta’s chances to cover.  The only red flag here, is Atlanta tends to be the opposite of Detroit.  They know how to win tight games, which means their games are close, even against lesser opponents *ahem, my 49ers* … Still, I like Atlanta here.

San Diego (-6) @ Oakland

Chappy picks San Diego -6, I guess just like By, I feel like my teams season is over. We’ve played some teams’ tough, but never come out on top. I guess my expectations were a little too high for them coming into the year, but at some point this decade they will make it to the super bowl, they do every decade, so it’s bound to happen. Rolando McClain looked lost last weekend, which was not a good sign for us slowing down anyone’s running game anytime soon. I can’t even remember the last time I could talk trash to my San Diego friends, so that must mean we haven’t beat them in years. No reason to think this week will be any different than the norm. SD usually starts off slow and picks up steam, but this year it looks like they might get rolling a little earlier than normal. I’ll be happy if the Raiders win, and would gladly lose this pick, but my gut tells me otherwise… Plus the Raiders haven’t had a “give up” game since opening weekend, they are long overdue for one of those. SD pisses all over the Raiders rug dude…

New Orleans (-6.5) @ Arizona

Chappy picks New Orleans -6.5, as bad as New Orleans looked against Carolina, it’s still really hard for me to pick against them. This matchup came down to one thing for me. Arizona is starting a rookie, and while you easily could argue that would be an upgrade over Derek Anderson, and I don’t have a counter argument for that, but most of the time when a rookie is called upon, the game plan is simplified. That will usually make it easier for a defense to figure out what they are trying to do. I see Max Hall throwing a couple of picks, since all his receivers outside of Fitz are hurt, and he’ll still try to force it to him in triple coverage. New Orleans should happily welcome back Pierre Thomas to give their offense some balance that it missed last weekend. Brees has really only had one big game so far, and I’m thinking he’s due for another one this weekend…

Chicago (-3) @ Carolina

At least they have hot cheerleaders to look at

By picks Chicago (-3) I don’t like the Bears, never have, never will … unless they trade for, and immediately start Tim Tebow.  Then we’ll revisit my liking of the Bears.  But for someone who loathes the Bears as much as me, I find myself picking them to win and cover a lot as of late.  Two weeks in a row!?  Hope you all brought fur coats to hell with you, because it might actually be cold down there after this … But I happen to think last week’s performance was a semi-fluke, if there ever was such a thing.  The Bears never got it going, Cutler got treated like a rag doll, and the Giants were to my surprise, inspired.  Got to think “Douche Bag” Cutler will set the ship right this week against woeful Carolina.  I use woeful to describe Carolina a lot.  If anyone has a better word to describe them, please feel free to suggest it to me.  Once again, only a three point spread, I have to go with Chicago here.

Philly @ SF (-3.5)

By picks Philly (+3.5) Really?  I can understand why the 3-0 Chiefs are dogs against perennial power house Indy, but Philly dogs against 0-4 SF!?  This is just plain stupid.  I don’t care if Mike Vick is not playing in this game, you don’t need Mike Vick or any top QB, or any mediocre QB, or any QB for that matter when facing the 49ers.  The 49ers know how to stink it up.  They’ll do all the work for you.  Actually, I take that back, in order to beat the 49ers, you do need a QB … Alex Smith.  As long as he suits up for San Francisco, you’re golden.  Last I checked, he’s still the QB for Coach Singletary.  I don’t have anything else to say but this … San Francisco needs to tank the season, and take Luck #1 in next year’s draft.  I know the allure of playing in such a week division that 0-4 is not hopeless, can tempt you, but focus SF.  Tank it.

Minnesota (+4) @ New York Jets

Chappy picks Jets -4, I don’t really like laying points with the Jets, because I really don’t have confidence in the Sancheckdown, but with Holmes in the lineup for the first time this season and LT running wild, I think this team is a Super Bowl contender, and should beat a confused Minnesota team. This should be a fun matchup between the Jets D and the Adrian Peterson. If the Vikings have any chance it’ll be because AP is going off. I don’t think Moss will be a big factor this week, and it’s strange that they pulled the trigger on this trade after their bye weekend instead of before. You’d think they’d want to wrap that up before the bye to get Brett and Randy comfy together while they had some extra time, but the Vikes are in panic mode. Never a good look for any team. I see the Jets doing enough at home to win this. I think their defense scores two TD’s on Brett’s misfires, and Brett starts to contemplate retirement again.