Tag Archives: Spreads

Doin Lines Week 10

Chappy: Starting to get into a groove again with these picks, and so is By! Glad I picked mostly early games last week, because the late games were the upsets/close games. I can’t believe we’re over halfway through the season. Seems like it’s flying by. Pretty nervous for the Raiders-Chargers game tonight, and will not be wagering on it. Even with nobody on a bye week and more games to pick from there are a bunch of divisional match-ups this weekend and the lines are almost all in single digits, which could make it tough.

By:  Great week for me last week, in fact, due to a hectic work schedule, I wasn’t able to write up a quick blurb about the Bengals/Titans match up, in which I would have picked Cincy. Should have had a 4-0 weekend.   Also, due to my own confusion, I wasn’t able to confirm my picks with my homeboy who doubles as my bookie, which led to me losing out on a little money.  It was the one downer of the weekend, but no biggie.  The crazy thing is, I wasn’t entirely confident on any of last weeks games.  This week on the other hand, I feel I got locked down.  With that said, on to the lines ~

Last Week: Chap (4-1), By (3-0)

Overall: Chap (25-17-3) By (21-14)

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-1)

By picks New Orleans (+1).  Before I get started, I must say I like all of Chappy’s picks, all of which I am not getting involved in.  Which means you lucky readers will be getting our speculative opinion on 9 games this week!  Anyway, this NFC South match up is a tough one.  What’s not to like about Matty Ice and his career home record?  And being that the spread is only one point, the Saints would have to defeat the Falcons to cover.  But, if any team can do it, it’s the Saints.  Well them and of course Aaron Rodgers.  But the one thing I took away from New Orleans game last week, was a little more emphasis on balance.  Sean Payton elected to use his running game a little more than usual, even going balance within the balance, as three back’s got significant touches.  What that ultimately does, is open up the play action, which makes Drew Brees that more deadly.  I think the Saints get a big statement win on the road against their division rivals, and show who is top dog of the pack.

Houston @ Tampa Bay (+3)

Chappy picks Houston (-3). Is Houston the best team that barely anyone is talking about? The way I see it, they probably are the most complete team in the AFC at the moment. Their running game is second to none, and Schaub can huck it all over the field when he needs to, and they’ve done virtually all of it without Andre Johnson. Their defense has improved a ton in the secondary compared to last seasons last ranked in passing yards allowed awfulness. The Bucs have been up and down all season, and it’s always hard to figure out which team will show up between the competitive team and the play dead team. Will it be the team that beat the Saints? That team sure hasn’t showed up the last two weeks. Of all the lines this weekend, I like this one the best.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (+3)

By picks Pittsburgh (-3).  I know, I know, the Bengals are 6-2 and currently tied with the Ravens for the division lead.  There’s just one thing, they haven’t played the Ravens or the Steelers yet.  Well that’s all about to change this weekend, and let the light shine on the truth.  Now don’t get me wrong, the Bengals are legit, it’s just one of those situations in which they play in a division that’s a two horse race, and one of those horses just lost to the other horse at home last week on a last second play.  I think that horse is going to be mad.  Enough horse talk, quite simply put, the Steelers are going to lay down the lumber on the Bengals this week, no if’s, and’s or but’s about it.

Denver @ Kansas City (-3)

By picks Kansas City (-3).  I’m the biggest Tebow believer/supporter/follower there is, but there’s no way I can look at anyone with a straight face and say that Tim Tebow won that game last week in Oakland.  Sure he did some nice things, but the Raiders lost it themselves.  The AFC West is as tight a race as they come past the half way point of the season, and to me, the two best teams are still the Raiders and Chargers, but the Chiefs are right there in it, despite their 0-4 start.  Unfortunately for them, they thought they had a second bye last week, and never showed up to the game.  They can’t afford to get behind, so look for them to take care of business at home, and kill all the Tebow hype.  At least for one week.

Tennessee @ Carolina (-3)

Chappy picks Carolina (-3). Cam after a bye week had to learn a thing or two on what he’s been doing wrong thus far in the season, and that probably isn’t too much outside a bad decision on a throw or two. I’m not sure that this pick is so much that I think Carolina is a much better team, but more how I view the Titans these days. Hasselbeck has looked okay lately, but CJ300 hasn’t been getting it done, and leads the NFL’s 27th worst rushing attack. Looking through the games the Titans have won, they only beat crappy teams like Cleveland, Indy, and Denver, so I feel like Carolina should be able to cover the spread.

Baltimore @ Seattle (+6.5)

Chappy picks Baltimore (-6.5). I think Baltimore showed us all something last Sunday night, and that is Joe Flacco is actually clutch from time to time. That being said, I have a hard time seeing them needing a last second drive to win this game. Baltimore has been putting up big points during a three game win streak, and the Seahawks have only scored 28 points in their last three. It’s not going to get any easier for them as they face the 2nd ranked defense in the NFL. If this isn’t a blowout, color me purple.

New England @ New York Jets (-1.5)

Chappy picks NYJ (-1.5). The Jets seem to be plugging the holes in their rushing defense for the last three weeks against teams that can run the ball. I’m still not sure how confident I am in Sanchez, but ever since Shonn Greene stepped his game up he’s looked a lot better. New England has looked like crap for the last couple weeks, and I think the Jets D is much better than the Buffalo D that stifled Brady for a half. Is this the demise of NE? I sure hope so!

NY Giants @ San Francisco (-3.5)

By picks San Francisco (-3.5).  Far removed from the glory days are the 49ers, when finesse took to the air, and points were scored in abundance.  These Niners are about boring ball control, and smash mouth defense.  And you know what?  I love it just the same, because it’s working!  There’s a lot of buzz about how Alex Smith has improved as a quarterback, but in my opinion, he hasn’t at all.  Jim Harbaugh has simply placed him in situations in which even an idiot couldn’t fail.  Frank Gore in a walking boot scares me, but he said he should be good to go.  Our ability to score points hinges on him.  The one thing that’s scary in a good way is this Niner defense anchored by P-Willy.  They’re so good, they could tango with the AFC North.  And they’ll get their chance during Thanksgiving.  For now they’ll show Eli Manning what it’s like to feel pressure, and despite his impressive come back at New England last week, Manning was throwing against a poor secondary.  No miracle catches by a #85 will save him this week.  #NinerFaithful

Minnesota @ Green Bay (-13.5) 

Chappy picks Green Bay (-13.5). Picking five favorites has me a little worried. Not sure how confident I am in this Monday night pick either, but how can anyone pick against the Pack at this point. Rodgers seems to be playing better than Brady’s video game style season 08′ season, and is on pace to throw for over 50 TD’s. There is a big question about their defense as they seem to be getting gashed weekly by opposing offenses. The only way I see the Vikings covering is if they hold the ball for two-thirds of the game, and AP gets like 180 yards with three scores. I’m not that confident that will happen for AP, so I’m taking the pack in a blowout…

 

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Doin Lines Week 8

Chappy: Uh oh two bad weeks in a row. One more and it’s a streak. This is not good, I don’t have any excuses since there’s no basketball to distract me during the week from making good picks. Who really saw Baltimore and Oakland crapping the bed as much as they did, not I.

By:  2-2 I’ll take it, but more importantly 3-0 on my parlay card which means I cashed in for the first time this year.  Hopefully the good times will keep rolling as I could use the spare cash these days.  Anyway, on to the lines!

Last Week: Chap (2-4) By (2-2)

Overall: Chap (18-14-3) By (15-13)

Minnesota @ Carolina (-3.5)

Chappy picks Carolina (-3.5). I find it amazing how much I’ve picked Carolina this year. At the onset of the season I didn’t see any way I’d actually pick them, but Cam has made me and everyone else a believer. I can’t wait to see Jarrod Allen try to bring down this beast of a QB, because he probably won’t be able to! Last week Minnesota actually made their game against Green Bay a good one letting AP off his leash finally. Maybe they’ll actually use him like he should be used (as the most complete back in football) Looks like they answered the big question on whether Ponder is a better fit to start than McNabb. Poor Donnovan’s fallen off faster than Culpepper did. Maybe he can join him in the CFL or Jamarcus on the retirement list.

Detroit (-2.5) @ Denver

Chappy picks Detroit (-2.5). I thought Tebow was impressive last weekend, but that was against the Dolphins, and only for six minutes. There’s noway Suh and Co will let Tebow dissect them, and send this team to three straight losses. Suh would rather knock the Jesus out of him in a dirty play than let Tebow run them up and down the field. Detroit is reeling after two straight losses, and while some have lost confidence in this team, I haven’t. I think the biggest blow to them was losing Javid Best, but since Stafford only had a small ankle injury and sounds like he’s going to play I have confidence in the Mega-Staff connection to beat a Denver that is all of a sudden over-rated. Detroit gets back to their winning ways convincingly.

By picks Detroit (-2.5).  And hell shall freeze over.  By is going against Timmy Tebow.  I can’t believe it myself, but despite orchestrating a remarkable comeback at Miami last week, there’s no way to disguise the fact that he did it against, well, Miami.  The Dolphins suck.  Detroit is not Miami.  Now the Lions haven’t exactly been looking like world beaters themselves, losing two straight at home despite a raucous crowd that forces a hundred false starts every week, but they’re not as bad as this losing streak suggests either.  Both the 49ers and Falcons are admirable opponents, and missing Jahvid Best hurt the Lions versus Atlanta, hopefully he’s back this week.  But really, this game hinges on the availability of Matthew Stafford, who is day-to-day and should be good to go, and that being the case, I think Detroit pulls through in a close game, winning by a touchdown.

New Orleans (-13) @ St. Louis

Chappy picks New Orleans (-13). It seems like New Orleans usually has a letdown after a huge scoring output like last weeks college football score, but the Rams haven’t shown as much life as the Jags this year, which is saying something. The Rams struggle at stopping the run as they rank dead last in stopping it, so I see a big game from Sproles, Ingram, and Thomas. Especially after they get up by a couple of scores. Atleast the Rams can look forward to week 9, when their schedule finally gets easier, and they play some teams that they might be able to work themselves into the win column.

Cincinnati (-3) @ Seattle

Chappy picks Cincinnati (-3). Did the Seahawks really play a 6-3 game last weekend against the Browns and lose?!? There weren’t weather issues, it was just straight ugly. Cincy had a bye week, and actually looks like a good team, and even with this game being in Seattle I would think this line would be little higher. I’m taking AJ Green to score more than the 9 total points that Seattle and Cleveland put up last weekend. Cedric Benson is serving his one game suspension, but then again that might be a good thing to get the old man out of the lineup, and put some guys in who can actually break away.

By picks Cincinnati (-3).  The Bengals have been one of the surprise teams this season, but they’ve done so flying under the radar.  Andy Dalton has proven to be a serviceable quarterback with solid upside, but to compose himself the way he has as a rookie is quite impressive.  He reminds me of a young Matt Ryan in terms of his calm state of being on the field.  Cincy’s offense doesn’t exactly jump off the page in terms of explosiveness, but with AJ Green running their routes, the Bengals are a threat to score on any given play.  But it’s their defense that’s been so impressive this season, yielding one of the best overall units.  Combine all the above, along with the fact that Seattle isn’t very good, and I predict a Cincy win by at least 7.

Dallas @ Philadelphia (-3.5).

Chappy picks Philadelphia (-3.5). There’s only one reason I’m taking Philly, and it’s because Andy Reid is 12-0 after his teams’ bye week. Yeah, it’s been a rocky year for Philly, but I feel like they are probably healthier and their defense has to be better than it was in the first six games getting some extra practice in. They added a lot of new pieces, and I think they’ll start to gel more this weekend. Nnamdi, Rodgers-Cromartie, and Samuel will be able to pick off Romo at least a couple of times. Plus, Vick with some extra rest is never a good thing for opposing defenses. 

By picks Philadelphia (-3.5).  I can’t stress enough how big of a win it was for Philly, when they beat the Redskins two weeks ago, as it reignited their confidence heading to their bye.  Now they play host to the vulnerable Dallas Cowboys, who in my opinion are one of the most overrated teams in the league, and are actually worse than what their record indicates.  Yes DeMarco Murray went off last week, and yes he set a new Cowboys rushing record, but he did so against the St. Louis Rams.  While still impressive, it takes away some of the pop, just like how Tebow’s comeback win wasn’t as great because of who he beat.  Ultimately it boils down to this, until Tony Romo can make the right decisions consistently, I will not trust the Cowboys, especially against a Eagles team that’s about to peak.  Eagles big.

San Diego @ Kansas City (+4)

By picks San Diego (-4).  This is tough.  Kansas City is coming off a big win against the best team in their division, at their home.  Plus whenever the Chargers and Chiefs meet up, it’s usually an all out battle.  But Matt Cassel barely scratched 150 yards passing, had no touchdowns and two interceptions last week.  If not for such a weird set of circumstances surrounding the Chiefs/Raiders game last week, Matt Cassel would have probably cost Kansas the game.  That won’t fly against San Diego, even if they’re at home.  Plus, you know the Chargers want to make amends for not only blowing the game at New York, but choking on the two-minute drill to end it.  Chargers by 10.


Doin Lines Week 7

Chappy: It took six weeks, but I finally had a crappy one. Hopefully this dream start to the season with my picks isn’t just a footnote on the way to an average year. It was nice to have my one win be the Raiders game. I’ll take a 1-3-1 every week if the Raiders are the sole win!

By:  Feels good to be back on the winning side after going 3-1 last week.  I feel the last two or three weeks have had the toughest lines I can remember.  After finally seeing this week’s lines, I can breathe a sigh of relief.  These seem doable.  With that said, I only pick the locks baby … on to the lines ~

Last week: By (3-1) Chap (1-3-1)

Overall: By (13-11) Chap (16-10-3)

Chicago vs. Tampa Bay (+1)

Chappy picks Tampa Bay (+1). It’s tough to feel good about picking a game in London, especially with two erractic teams that seem hard to figure out where exactly they are through six weeks of the season. The Tampa win over New Orleans impressed me to the point that I’m going to pick them. Even without Blount in the lineup they amassed 117 yards rushing. If Freeman can stay patient and dink and dunk his way down the field without making any interceptions this is a lock. Well, unless they for some strange reason decide to kick to Hester.

Washington  @ Carolina (-2.5)

By picks Camolina (-2.5).  Carolina ran into a determined Atlanta team last week, but still kept it close late until the Falcons pulled away by 14.  Amazingly, that’s exactly how much I said the Dirty Birds would win by.  The return of Bystradamus?  Before I get carried away, let’s look at this week’s match up for the Panthers, and why this is a lock for them to cover.  First and foremost, Cam Newton.  Second, Mike Shanahan, or in the fantasy world, Lucifer, has been carouseling running backs in the lineup all season for the Skins.  It’s a disaster back there.  Now, albeit inevitably, it’s the quarterbacks’ turn.  John Beck won’t throw as many picks as Rex “Gross, Man” but he’ll win the same amount of games for you this season.  Which is close to nothing moving forward.  I know Washington got off to a good start, but unlike the Bills, we knew it would fall apart for them.  Camolina at home against a team in full disarray, I got to like my chances with the Panthers.

Chappy picks Carolina (-2.5).  I expected more from Carolina last weekend against the Falcons, but I think the Falcons were out to prove that they are still contenders, so Cam alone wouldn’t be enough stop them. This weekend he takes on a very solid Washington defense, the only problem for Washington is they’re starting John Beck. Not that I liked Grossman or anything, but he seemed like a better option to me even with his ugly 4 int performance. At the beginning of the year I didn’t think I’d be picking Carolina in any games, but they truly are a different team than last year…

Denver @ Miami (-1)

Chappy picks Miami (-1). This game wouldn’t be hyped at all if it wasn’t Tebow’s first start of the season and his return to Florida, but both those things are happening so it’s all of a sudden a big game. I actually thought the Dolphins looked good for a half against the Jets, and you know Marshall is going to get fired up to play his old team trying to go into monster mode as often as possible. If there’s one weakness in Denver’s defense, it’s their ability to stop the run. Consequently that’s one of the only things Miami does well. Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas should have big games on their way to a win. Tebow might do well, but I don’t see them winning.

By picks Tebow (+1).  I’m waiting for Brandon Marshall to say he’s trying to get thrown out of this game during warm ups in attempt to show how much passion he has playing for a winless team.  If that happens, Denver’s the sexy pick all the way.  Wait, Timmy Tebow’s starting!?!?  Then Denver is already the sexy pick!  All jokes aside, I’ve been a huge Tebow fan for two reasons:  One, he’s a great leader, and his actions speak louder than his words.  Two, he’s the second sports legend to come out of the Philippines!  (Yeah, I claim him as Filipino).  But, when it’s all said and done, Tebow knows how to win.  Screw the mechanics, screw the intangibles, this guy gets the job done.  Check his track record.  Denver can afford him this opportunity, and he will stand and deliver.  At least this week.  Against a winless team.

Atlanta @ Detroit (-4)

By picks Detroit (-4).  I think I’m the only one who thinks the Jim Harbaugh/Jim Schwartz fiasco was entirely blown out of proportion.  And I’m probably the only San Francisco fan that thinks Harbaugh gave a douche of a handshake.  Yeah Schwartz acted like a little sissy brat, but there’s a lot of pride involved in football, and you don’t let another man belittle you like that.  With all that said, Harbaugh in the 3rd.  Now back to Detroit.  They must be pissed, not only to get their first loss last week, but in the matter in which they received it.  I’m weary of picking them here with the status of Jahvid Best still in the air, but I think the spread offense, as well as Stafford to Megatron is still enough to propel the Lions at home versus the Falcons.  It’s hard to make a read on this Atlanta team this season, the verdict is still out on them.  But I don’t trust them on the road this season one bit.  Detroit by 6.

Pittsburgh @ Arizona (+4)

Chappy picks Pittsburgh (-4). The Steelers are getting a little old, but their not old to the point where they’ll lose to the Cardinals. Missing Jerome Harrison due to a tumor might hurt their defense a little, but then again you don’t need a lot to beat this team. The Steelers either blow a team out or play down to their competition. I feel like they’ll blow out AZ the same way they did in the Super Bowl two years back. Mike Wallace is a little dinged up, but with Pittsburgh finally getting the running game going, it probably doesn’t matter.

Kansas City @ Oakland (-4.5)

By picks Oakland (-4.5).  Oakland’s a team on the rise, and their about to get better with the addition of Carson Palmer.  Can you imagine Palmer clicking with all his weapons with the speed and talent this Raiders offense has?  I really think San Diego’s reign over the AFC West is in jeopardy, like right now.  Hue Jackson has proven why the Raiders looked no further than within when hiring a replacement for Tom Cable.  His play calling has been spot on this season, and his attitude is refreshing.  It’s nice to see both Bay Area teams succeeding this year.  As far as this week’s match up, what’s not to like with the Silver & Black?  They’re home, they’re hot, they’ve got a real threat at quarterback, an excellent coach, game breakers on offense and they’re playing the Chiefs.  To me, -5 sounds like a trap game line, but I’m confident Oakland won’t disappoint.

Chappy picks Oakland (-4.5). I think I’m already a little tired of hearing about whether Palmer should or shouldn’t start. Who gives us a better chance to win? I’d say Carson after one week of practice over Boller playing backup for the season. We always waste our timeouts anyways, so if he isn’t sure on a play use one! And really how hard is it going to be for him to turn around and hand off the ball to McFadden and Bush? Seems like an easy game plan to me without putting a ton of pressure on him. On the other side, the Chiefs have rattled off two straight wins, but they were against the Colts and Vikings, who we all know are about as bad as it gets in opponents. I’m somewhat worried about this Chiefs squad, mainly because they’re coming off the bye week. Then again the Raiders will probably give them a lot of new looks with their new QB at the helm.

Baltimore @ Jacksonville (+8)

Chappy picks Baltimore (-8). I think I’d still pick Baltimore if the spread was 14. Baltimore is possibly the team to beat in the AFC, and have put up 33 per game during their 3 game win streak. Conversely Jacksonville has only scored 11 points per game during their five game losing streak. This is probably THE easiest pick of the week. Ride with it to some money!!


Doin Lines Week 6

Chappy: The dream season continues as I had another good weekend of picks. As I said in my post Wednesday, I didn’t get to see much football over the weekend, but did hear and read plenty of analysis to know what happened to help me with this weeks picks. Let the good times keep on rolling!

By:  Got my ass kicked last week.  Time to exact some revenge!  To the lines ~

Last week: Chappy (3-1-1) By (1-3)

Overall: Chappy (15-7-2 By (10-10) 

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh (-12)

Chappy picks Pittsburgh (-12). Pittsburgh has been an iffy pick on some weeks this year, but aside from the game against the Colts, they’ve beat teams they are supposed to convincingly. I’m not sure I believe in Blaine Gabbert much at all, especially with the limited amount of weapons he has outside of MJD. The Steelers will knock him over a lot forcing him into some turnovers. I read somewhere Mendenhall is supposed to be back, so that should only help the blowout cause.

Philadelphia @ Washington (+1)

By picks Philadelphia (-1).  I thought last week would be when the Eagles finally showed what their capable of, and to a certain extent they did, nearly coming back against the Bills on the road.  Unfortunately it’s been like Groundhog’s Day for Philly, as they seem to repeat the same mistakes over and over again.  I know Mike Vick has shed the “Dream Team” label, but they do share resemblance to another “Dream Team” in a way, the Miami Heat, and not all was smooth sailing for that team.  But, the Heat did eventually get it right.  I assume the Eagles will get it going now, as they’ve wasted their life lines already.  Throwing records aside, if the Eagles can’t beat this suspect Redskins team this week, they can kiss the playoffs goodbye.  I don’t see Philly missing the playoffs, quite yet.

Carolina @ Atlanta (-4)

Chappy picks Carolina (+4). Cam returns to his homeland of Atlanta. If there’s one thing I’ve taken from this Panthers team is that they don’t get blown out. The one time they lost by more than three points it was by seven to the defending Super Bowl champs. The Falcons are saying all the right things, but don’t seem to be executing them well enough to get them put into the upper echelon of teams that they were in last season. My question for this team is has their window already closed? Seems like they’re pretty old at some of the skill positions like Turner, Gonzalez, Babineaux, and Abraham all over 30. I still think Atlanta wins, but Cam and the Panthers hang tough like they have every week this year.

By picks Atlanta (-4).  I’ve been a huge supporter of Cam Newton and Carolina when making my picks this season, and they haven’t let me down yet.  But, I’ve been an even bigger supporter of Matty Ice over the past few seasons, especially at home.  Obviously, the Falcons have not looked good coming out of the gates this season, considering they held the best record in the NFC last year, but this is still the same dynamic team as a season ago.  A team like this is due for a breakout game, a game that will remind the census that they are still a legitimate championship contender, and this will be that game.  Cam has been remarkable thus far, and is running away with the ROY votes, perhaps even swaying some MVP ones, but there’s only so much one guy can do to keep his team close in every game.  I sense he slows down a little this week, hits a small speed bump on the road against a division rival.  Atlanta wins this game by 14.

Buffalo @ New York Giants (-3)

Chappy picks Buffalo (+3). I think everyone is wondering when this Buffalo team will fall back to earth. I feel like they will eventually, but for the time being they believe in themselves, which is nearly always the most important part of a team. The Bills always seem to come through in the clutch, and well, the Giants seem to find ways to fall apart in the clutch over the past year and a half. The Giants haven’t really played anyone I deem a good team this year, and the Bills have plenty of quality wins, so it’s an easy choice to take the points even for the road team.

Cleveland @ Oakland (-6.5)

Chappy picks Oakland (-6.5). Obviously I’ve been ecstatic about how well my Raiders have been playing, and the schedule is getting a bit easier over the next few games than it was to start the season. Not to say Cleveland can’t beat Oakland, but the line says what we should expect, a win. I am slightly concerned the players will be a little too pumped up costing us some stupid penalties, which could help the Browns stay close. One of the most encouraging things this season is the Raiders seem to have found a way to not have a let down that effects their next game. Where are all those haters that thought DHB would never be as good a receiver as Crabtree on draft day in 09? Crickets out there, that’s what I thought! I don’t feel entirely comfortable picking them to win by a touchdown, but with all the issues in Cleveland with Peyton Hillis, I don’t see how that wouldn’t be a big distraction. Colt McCoy has been impressive imo, but he’s going to have a tough time throwing over the Oakland D-line that is the best he’s faced this year. Cleveland gets swallowed by the Black Hole.

By picks Oakland (-6.5).  Shout out to Chappy & Matt, I’m really feeling this Raider team.  Jason Campbell is playing a well controlled, well-disciplined game this season, and he’s utilizing the talent he has on the edges.  Oakland’s receivers are a threat to break on every single play.  Toss in the league’s best running back in DMac, and the Raiders have an exciting brand of offensive football this year.  But you can’t overlook the Raiders D.  Along with my Niners and the Baltimore Ravens, the Raiders have one of the most physical and intimidating defensive units in all of football, add to that Sea Bass kicking 50 + yarders with a hot dog in his hand, and I’d say the Silver & Black have a good thing going for them all around.  Plus Cleveland’s coming in already terrible, and with a disgruntled star in Peyton Hillis.  That doesn’t add up well for the Browns.  Oh and by the way, the “Madden Curse” still lives.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (+4.5)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-4.5). I’ve picked New Orleans to cover the past four weeks, and they’ve come through for me in all but one. Seeing how the 49ers and Alex Smith completely dismantled the Bucs defense last week, it has to have Drew Brees salivating for this match up. Sure the Bucs will change a couple things, but how much can you really change in a cover-2 scheme in one week? Not enough to stop Drew Brees from putting up 40+ points. Do I think the Bucs can keep up on the scoreboard? Maybe if they have a huge game from Earnest Graham controlling the clock, but I don’t really see that happening, so I feel pretty confident in picking the Saints.

By picks New Orleans (-4.5).  I feel that lost in this season thus far, is how good the Saints are.  They lost a nail biter on the road in the season opener against the defending champs, and best team in football, Green Bay Packers.  Since then, they’ve reeled off four straight wins and are pulling away from the division.  Drew Brees might be the MVP if Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady didn’t exist, he’s turning Jimmy Graham into a house hold name!  Anyway, long story short, the Saints are too explosive offensively, and the Bucs seem anemic on their end.  No LaGarrette Blount and -4.5 seems like a bargain here.  Saints big.


Doin Lines Week 5

Chappy: I’m not sure what exactly is going on through the first four weeks, but I like it, especially since it’s all about offensive battles opposed to defensive battles. Is it bad the league doesn’t care about defensive rules? Who knows, but I’m glad to be a collector rather than a giver from the bookie on Mondays. I can’t remember a start to the gambling season like the one I’ve been on since I was a waiter in college. Back then I had no idea I was being sucked in by an unusual lucky streak to start off my football betting career. Just after having said all that, this week’s lines are tough with only three lines over 6 points. That bodes well for the watchability of all the match ups this weekend.

By:  Is that Chappy on fire with a winning ratio of two to one, and me two games above .500?  Yeah, that’s us.  I guess we kind of know a little bit what we’re talking about here when it comes to these lines, huh?  I’m sure it’s mostly luck, but still, I’ll take it.  Unfortunately when I looked at my parlay card this week, I lost all confidence, as the lines are killer.  I can honestly say I don’t stand firm behind any of my picks this week.  I’m merely crossing my fingers and hoping for the best.  On to the lines ~

Last Week: Chappy (4-1) By (3-1)

Overall: Chappy (12-6-1) By (9-7) 

New Orleans @ Carolina (+6.5)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-6.5). Last weekend at the bar, I was fixated on the TV showing Cam taking on the Bears. He’s already one of those athletes that make it hard to take your eye off of. He had a pretty good game, and could’ve won it if it weren’t for a Devin Hester return. Anyways, as much as I like Cam, he won’t beat New Orleans. The Saints defense isn’t highly thought of after that first game against the unstoppable Packers, but since that game they’ve been pretty solid. I feel like the Saints will be able to find a way to stop Steve Smith, because who else does Cam throw to? Drew Brees teaches Cam a trick or two while beating them by more than a TD.

By picks Carolina (+7).  Carolina sports a 1-3 record, which is not very good, but if you delve deeper you will find they’re better than what their current record indicates.  They haven’t lost a game by more than a touchdown, and they’ve had opportunities to win late in each contest they’ve played this season.  They’re currently 1-1 at home, but the loss came at the hands of Green Bay, no harm in that.  While I still think Drew Brees and company pull out the win, I’m convinced that a crowd all abuzz about Cam Newton pushes the Panthers to take the Saints to the limit.  To me, this game has game winning field goal written all over it, which is beneficial to Carolina either way.

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-3)

By picks Indianapolis (-3).  This is a disgusting game to tackle, but I’m feeling dirty.  I know the Chiefs finally got off the schneid last week at home versus Minnesota, but it was against Minnesota.  That’s got to be the most shameful way of getting your first win.  By beating Minnesota.  In fact, the only more shameful way of getting your first win is by beating the Chiefs.  After they beat Minnesota.  And that’s exactly what’s going to happen Sunday for the Colts.  Listen, Curtis Painter didn’t show me a lot last Monday, but he did show me something, he showed he can keep Tampa’s defense honest with some decent throws.  The Colts play makers are still there, and perhaps Pierre Garcon’s outburst will light a fire to them and give them some belief that they can still be relevant on the field without Manning.  Ultimately, it just comes down to me thinking the Colts have got to get their win in now, or else the talks of a 0-16 season start stirring.  Oh, and my apologies to the Chiefs, Colts and Vikings fans out there.  What I said about them is mean.

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville (-2.5)

Chappy picks Cincinnati (+2.5). When I first read this line, I thought it was backwards and was still thinking of picking Cincy. Andy Dalton feels like he’s moving in the right direction with AJ Green already being his go to receiver, while Blaine Gabbert can’t seem to get any solid footing in his limited time in the NFL. Gabbert has played better than Luke McCown, but is that really saying anything positive? The Bengals just beat the up and coming Bills last weekend, and have been close in every game, so there’s no reason to not take the points here. They kinda remind me of the cardiac cats back when Carson was leading the team. Maybe they rebuilt faster than we thought!

By picks Jacksonville (-2.5). I read what Chappy wrote about this match up, and I couldn’t agree more.  Except in the end result.  While the Bengals are the better team and have a nice piece in place in Andy Dalton, and an absolutely unstoppable force in the making with AJ Green, they’re still a relatively young and inexperienced team on offense, which means they don’t know how to pull away from teams they’re supposed to beat.  Cincinnati’s record shows they’ve only been in close games this season, and a close game means Jacksonville will utilize the run more.  So we’ll probably see more Pocket Hercules from the Jags this week as oppose to last.  Despite Blaine Gabbert’s mediocre start, his upside is far greater than that of Andy Dalton, and I have a gut feeling he flashes a glimpse of what he’s capable of this week.  My prediction, home field wins out, and MJD’s punishes the Bengals for a late costly mistake.  Jags by 4.

 

New York Jets @ New England (-9)

Chappy picks New England (-9). It’s been crazy how lifeless the Jets have been so far this season. I thought they’d be playing a lot tougher, but maybe it’s just time to blow them up and start over. The last time the Jets went to New England they beat them in the playoffs. Don’t think New England doesn’t remember that, and you never want a pissed off Pats team coming your way. The trip before that one to Foxboro was in the regular season and ended in a 45-3 win for the Pats. I see this game being more like that one than the playoff game. Then again, with Nick Mangold back being able to keep Sanchez off his backside, and if Jerod May can’t play they could put up some serious keep up points. I’m still upset the Raiders didn’t take more advantage of Mayo being out.

Philadelphia @ Buffalo (+3)

By picks Philadelphia (-3).  I have too much personal shit invested into this match up.  There, that’s the disclaimer.  If I influence your picks at all, perhaps it’s best you stay away from this one.  First off, Buffalo was up 17-3 into the third quarter versus the Bengals last week.  With the other picks on my parlay card winning handedly already, it seemed like foregone conclusion I would be getting paid out.  Long story short, the Bills blew it.  Now I’m pissed at them.  Don’t come between me and my money Buffalo.  Don’t do it.  Meanwhile, the Eagles decided to demonstrate the fundamentals of a melt down against my 49ers, allowing us to somehow win a game we were dominated in.  Thank you Philly, I now like you.  Unfortunately for the Eagles, the Cowboys decided to upstage them in the choke department, proving once again, division rivals will go to great lengths to out do each other.  In all seriousness, this week the Eagles will prove they are as good as advertised, while the Bills get exposed for the pretenders they really are.  (Assholes).

TEBOW, TEBOW, TEBOW!!

San Diego @ Denver (+4)

Chappy picks San Diego (-4). I’m actually hoping I’m wrong with this pick. I’d lose a bet to see the Chargers lose, but in realityville, I don’t see it happening. SD hasn’t really played that well, but they’ve slept walked through an easy early schedule to a 3-1 record. I hope there’s no Tebow chants, because that means the Broncos are losing. If there are some Tebow chants, at least I’ll get a laugh out of it and a winning bet. Rivers is having an off year for some reason, but there’s no place like Denver to get yourself going. I’m sure they’ll take a thing or two out of Green Bay’s playbook after showing them how to put up 49 on them last weekend.

Chicago @ Detroit (-5.5)

Chappy picks Detroit (-5.5). I can’t jump off the bandwagon of a team that’s 3-1 ATS for me. I think if this was in Chicago, I’d hesitate on this pick a lot more, but in the Lions only home game so far this year they put up 43 on the Chiefs. I think the home crowd helps younger teams more than it would an older team, which is why I picking them in this game. Plus, Detroit’s front four against the Bears O-line = Cutler on his back all game long. Chicago plays their cover-2 all game long, so I see Calvin catching a short pass, and breaking free to watch himself score a TD on the Ford Field Megatron.


Doin Lines Week 2

Chappy: Off to a terrific start to the gambling season, I mean NFL season, and I’m already feeling better than I did last year. I think we all learned more about teams in week 1’s 16 games than we did in all 60 preseason games combined. It seems like a thousand things happened in only one week of football, but that’s probably because we over analyze everything. Let’s keep all this good mojo we got going, and get on to the picks for week 2!

By: A quick blurb.  It’s week two, and I still feel so grateful that we are even watching football, maybe the effects of it won’t wear off at all this year.  People don’t realize how much they appreciate watching a game until it’s almost taken away from them.  Perhaps that’s the reason why Chappy and I were on fire during opening week, look at that winning percentage right there!  We got a good thing back with football, and we weren’t blowing picks on just any game.  We were focused.  We were determined.  We still are.  Although I must apologize ahead of time to Chaps, I think I just jinxed us for the rest of the season there … I guess we’ll find out soon enough.  On to the lines!

Last Week: Chappy (3-1-1) By (3-1)

Kansas City @ Detroit (-8.5)

Chappy picks Detroit (-8.5). Under normal conditions I’d never take the Lions to beat any team by more than a touchdown. I don’t think the Chiefs offense will be nearly as bad as they were against Buffalo as Bowe and Charles are bound to have better games, but their defense is awful. How do you let Ryan Fitzpatrick rip you a new one. I mean the Chiefs didn’t land at #32 in our power rankings for no reason! I don’t see the Chiefs having any answers for Megatron as he’ll knock the cornerbacks off him like nats without Eric Berry roaming the secondary. I see a close first half and a dominating second half for the Lions.

Arizona @ Washington (-4)

By picks Washington (-4). Am I really going with a team that has Rex Grossman running the show?  You bet your bottom dollar I am!  It’s not that I’m high on Grossman, but Arizona didn’t exactly impress me squeaking by Carolina at home last week.  Yes, Cam Newton went off, but what many are neglecting to ask is, how much of that was due to bad defense?  Cam Newton can’t really be that good, can he?  While not blown away by Washington’s opening performance, I did take notice.  Ultimately, my prediction is Grossman puts together a string of solid games to start the season, then returns to his “Hyde” form shortly after, throwing plenty of picks, and throwing away chances at wins along the way.  But for the time being, the Redskins ride their high all the way to their second consecutive home victory by at least 10 points.  Keep your eye on Tim Hightower as well, he’ll have a bit of a chip on his shoulder facing his old team.

Oakland @ Buffalo (-3.5)

Chappy picks Oakland (+3.5). I’m never a big fan of picking my team especially when they are travelling to the eastcoast to play an early game when they just played a Monday night game, but I can’t help myself. I actually have hope they can win outside the division this year, and hopefully it will start this week. A lot has changed since their last match up three years ago. Jamarcus was our starting QB, Buffalo still believed in Marshawn. Now both these teams look somewhat competent coming out of the gates. I love the way the Raiders are trying to be the bullies they were back in their glory days. In the MNF game they tried to give Denver chances to win with many ugly penalties, but maybe they learned something (probably not). I see them at least covering the spread.

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota (-3)

By picks Minnesota (-3). The Vikings did everything in their power to lose their season opening game at San Diego.  They begged Philip Rivers to bring the Chargers back, and that’s exactly what he did.  The Chargers are also said to be contenders in the opinions of many.  Conversely, Tampa Bay, last season’s surprise, got flat out beat by Detroit at home.  This makes the Vikings loss the more impressive of the two, or the lesser between two evils.  To Tampa’s credit, a lot is expected from the Lions this season, but I said in last week’s predictions, that I felt Tampa would use this season as an opportunity to take two steps back from last season’s success, and nothing that happened in week one has me thinking otherwise.  It should be a close game late, until Tampa subjects to some growing pains, making some crucial mistakes, while AP goes nuts.  I have a strange feeling AP goes over 200 in this game.  Vikings by 6.

Baltimore @ Tennessee (+6)

Chappy picks Baltimore (-6). The Ravens were easily the most impressive team last weekend while destroying their division foes, but like Terell Suggs said “You’re only as good as your next game”. That kind of attitude has me believing in this team more than I thought I would. There’s nothing not to like about Ray Rice right now, He was snatched up just before my first pick in both my fantasy drafts. I see their defense being able to contain CJ and possibly making Rice the best running back in the game right now. If they can stay healthy, they are going to be tough for any team to beat. Hasselbeck had a decent game for Tennessee last week, but he’s always one play away from being out for the year. Baltimore can deliver those kinds of blows, and will rattle the veteran at some point during the game into a turnover or two.

Cincinnati @ Denver (-5)

By picks Denver (-5). Listen, I’m probably more pro Tebow than anyone outside of Jesus, but even I know Tebow isn’t Denver’s best option at quarterback yet.  The Broncos ran into a highly motivated, and talented Raiders team, that ran wild on them.  That’s not really Kyle Orton’s fault.  I don’t believe the Broncos are a playoff contender, but I do believe they have more to offer than what was shown last Monday.  It’s the fans in Denver that are making them seem worse than what they really are.  The Bengals won their first game by fluke, and when pitted against a team that would like nothing more than to shut their own fans up, Kyle Orton goes ape shit and adds another 400 yard game to the calendar, while the Bengals reveal their true stripes.  Denver by 14.

Green Bay @ Carolina (+9.5)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-9.5). Cam was spectacular in his debut. I’ll be honest, I didn’t see it coming. I thought he’d be okay this year, as in, better than Tebow, but not 422 yards good. While it was a nice story for week 1, he still lost, and the Packers are going to roll out a lot of defensive schemes that will make him look like the rookie he is. If AZ can put up 28 on Carolina’d D, there’s no reason to think the Packers can’t put up 50 without breaking a sweat. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this line jump to 10 before the weekend (I wrote this on Wednesday, and low and behold the line is 10!). Too many people betting on Green Bay I see, they still look plenty attractive with the adjusted half point to the line!

San Diego @ New England (-6.5)

Chappy: San Diego (+6.5). Whoa, four picks for the road teams this week. Hopefully this works out. It seems like everyone has the Chargers somewhere between 5-8 in their power rankings, yet the Patriots are a touchdown favorite for this game?!? It feels like this line should be more in the 4 range, because the last three times they’ve hooked up the games have been decided by 4 or less points. Granted the Patriots looked amazing in their opener, while the Chargers looked a little rusty, but both over matched their opponent throughout their respective games. One thing I think we can all agree on is that both these offenses are great. Another thing we can probably agree on is that the Chargers have the better defense, and a few recievers as big as Brandon Marshall with a better QB than Chad Henne throwing to them. I hope SD loses by six or less!

Philadelphia @ Atlanta (+3)

By picks Philadelphia

You didn’t think I was only going to pick teams with home games this week, did you?  You didn’t think I was going to turn my back on the Eagles, did you?  If you said no to those questions, you thought right!  Although if there’s one team that could steal away a vote from me towards Philly in a match up, it would be the Falcons.  Matty Ice, Roddy Roddy Piper White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez and Burner Turner.  That’s a lot of weapons, and despite being held in check out in Chicago last week, no one expects this high octane offense to stall any further.  With that said, Mike Vick has been amazing since last season, and the balance on Philly’s offense, as well as the ability for the Eagles to hit a home run on any given play gives them the edge here.  I think the Eagles win by 6 in a barn burner, 40-34 in what will easily be the game of the week.  Vick returns to Atlanta too, drama …


Doin Lines Week 1

Chappy: It feels like football crept up on us quickly. It feels like just yesterday they were locked out and crying over spilt milk. Now that my fantasy teams are set it’s time to take a look at some of the bets to make this weekend to avenge my losing trip to the Del Mar horse races last weekend. I feel like week 1 is always the toughest to pick, and this year it feels a little tougher to pick with the extremely shortened offseason, and not knowing exactly where all the free agents landed. I’m looking for a bounce back year with my picks. I didn’t have a whole lot of luck last year which might have evened out my extremely successful 2009. Anyways we’re on to year three in the Doin Lines picks, and I think it’s going to be a good one!

By: Doin Lines is back!  Woot a mother f**king woot!  I’m so excited to yet again, give you all my idiotic thoughts, opinions and overall predictions for another season!  I really don’t have much to say as far as an intro to our picks, I’m just so happy and excited that football is back!  We all know the NFL is king in terms of sports ratings, so with that being said, LONG LIVE THE KING!  Glad the suits were able to get together with the hard hats and hash it out!  Now … let’s get this show on the road!

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (+2.5)

Chappy picks Baltimore (+2.5). Wow starting the year with a pick that I don’t really want to go with, but it’s going to be a great game, so I couldn’t resist. Anytime these two teams meet up, you know it’s going to be close. I feel like Big Ben might have his best season of his career this year, but that might have to start after week 1. I really like taking the points when (A) the home team is the underdog and (B) said home team is looking for some revenge from the season before. I’m scared of this pick because the only time the Ravens did beat them last year was during Big Ben’s four game suspension, but that won’t stop me from throwing them in a parlay.

Detroit @ Tampa Bay (+1.5)

By picks Detroit (-1.5)

It’s tough to pick the unproven Lions, who are led by an unproven and often injured quarterback to open the season with a win on the road against an upstart Tampa team, but … that’s exactly what I’m going to do here.  My mouth salivates thinking about all the weapons Detroit has at its disposal, from Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, to Jahvid Best (who is also injury prone).  If this team can stay healthy, watch out.  Aside from the potential explosiveness from Detroit’s offense, their defensive line is equally ferocious.  Anchored by the fiery Ndamukong Suh, they’re an opposing quarterback’s nightmare, just ask Tom Brady.  Plus, I have a gut feeling the Bucs are going to fall into the category of “one step forward, two steps back” from last season to this, and it starts with week one.

Chappy picks Detroit (-1.5). I think the Lions meaningless undefeated pre-season record talked me into this one. Yeah, I get it, preseason means about as much as my opinion, but I feel like Detroit is going to be good this year as long as Stafford can stay on the field. Megatron should have his breakout year pretty soon as he enters his physical prime. I was disappointed in Tampa’s offseason as they seemed to forget to spend some of their money when they had a ton left under the cap. I’m a big Freeman fan, but I just don’t see this one ending in the Bucs favor.

Philadelphia @ St. Louis (+6)

By picks Philadelphia (-6). Although the Eagles haven’t exactly set the world on fire during the pre-season, it is, still … pre-season.  Some experts now have Dallas as the favorites out of the East … seriously?  What has Tony Romo done to sway their predictions?  Anyway, this is about Philly and how they’ll dominate St. Louis.  As oppose to listing reasons as to why the Eagles will cover, I’ll ask a few questions.  Once you answer them in your own head, you’ll understand.  Who on St. Louis will stop Mike Vick, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek?  That’s to name a few.  Can you see how easily Philly can spread the field?  Now, does St. Louis have enough on offense to pose a threat to this stacked Eagles d?  Bare in mind, Nnamdi Asomugha will erase half the field. Not sure why the spread is so low, Eagles big.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland (-6.5)

Chappy picks Cleveland (-6.5). I have few rules with my betting in week 1, but this is one I’ve always stood firm by. Bet against any rookie QB starting their first game. This holds even more true after a lockout, and while I don’t have anything against Dalton, I don’t think he’s had enough time to guide this team to a victory in week 1, plus Cincy is far from a contender. Not that Cleveland is, but they looked pretty legit down the stretch last year under Colt (I wish the Raiders picked him) McCoy. If Cincy has a tough time scoring early, Cleveland covers easily.

Tennessee @ Jacksonville (-3)

Does this look like the face of a guy you want leading your team?

By picks Tennessee (+3). To be honest, I don’t even know who Luke McCown is, and I’m not even going to Google him.  He’s probably just keeping the quarterback seat “luke” warm for Blaine Gabbert anyway.  See what I did there?  If I stated Matthew Stafford is unproven earlier, then what does that make McCown?  And with that being said, that is why I’m going with Tennessee here.  It’s crazy how quickly people have pushed aside Matt Hasselbeck.  He may not be the Hasselbeck of 2005, but the guy can still sling the rock.  Plus there’s some good targets out there in Tennessee, Kenny Brit, Jared Cook.  Oh by the way, having Chris Johnson in the backfield is not a bad thing.  Long story short, the Titans load the box and force McCown to win the game, which he won’t.  Tennessee 21, Jacksonville 10.

Carolina @ Arizona (-7)

Chappy picks Arizona (-7). My week 1 rule applies twice to my picks. Always pick against a rookie making his first career start, and you can count on me parlaying the two rookies in the loss column. I have little to no confidence in Arizona, but of any team in the NFC West, for some reason I think they are the best. They should be able to handle last years worst team. Cam will throw a couple picks and Beanie Wells will run over their terrible defense. Yeah, I just said Beanie Wells is going to play well this weekend, and that will probably be the only time you hear me say that.

NY Giants @ Washington (+4)

By picks NY Giants (-4). This is a situation in which I’m not so much in love with one team, as much as I am in hate with the other.  Experts expect big things from the G Men, but I’m still skeptical.  Yes, Eli Manning is the best Manning right now, but obviously that’s by default.  To this day I don’t believe he has what it takes to win a Super Bowl, and that’s with him already winning a Super Bowl!  I know, it doesn’t make sense, right?  Yet, it kind of does, huh?  But the Giants have plenty of weapons to make up for a sub par quarterback performance where as the Redskins have nothing.  Literally … nothing.  ‘Nuff said.

New England @ Miami (+6.5)

Chappy picks New England (-6.5). Even though we’ve seen Miami hang tough against the Pats a few times, I don’t see it happening Monday Night. Bellichick had a whole off-season to prepare for this game, and that’s never a good thing for the competition. I feel like Brandon Marshall and Devon Bess could have big games after they are getting blown out against a weak Pats secondary, but that’s a crappy consolation prize. I’m pretty excited to see Daniel Thomas in the backfield for Miami, dude looked like he had some skills in college.


Doin Championship Lines

This football season sure has flow by. Maybe it’s because the Raiders were relevant for so long I kind of forgot what it meant to care about the regular season. I ended the year making good picks with three straight winning weeks, as soon as the playoffs started, I went down faster than a Charlie Sheen threesome culminating with last weeks 0-4 performance. What does this tell me about making picks in the playoffs, don’t listen to any of the hype. Pick the opposite of your instincts, and you’ll be okay. Maybe that’s not the best strategy, but I have to change it up since nothing I’ve done the first two weeks is working.

.500 in the playoffs, I’ll take it.  The bonus here is I successfully picked the biggest upsets in the playoffs thus far, Seattle over New Orleans and the Jets over the Pats, so I’m some what satisfied with my overall performance in terms of picking winners this post season.  Only problem is, I have no winnings to show for it.  Maybe I should stick to two spot parlays over four.  Well, there’s only two games this weekend …

Green Bay (-3.5) @ Chicago

Chappy picks Chicago (+3.5). I really don’t want to pick Chicago, and would much rather see Aaron Rodgers make his first Super Bowl appearance, but it’s opposite day with the picks, so I guess I’m rolling with Obama’s favorite team. In two games during the regular season the Bears held Rodgers to 27 total points. This looks like a different QB than the last time they played though as he tore through Philly and Atlanta, but I’m confident the Bears D can stifle him enough to keep the score close. The Bears are a much better defensive unit than those first two teams Rodgers faced. Even though the lowly Seahawks put up 24 points on the Beard D, that game wasn’t as close as it looked in the final score. I’m far from a Cutler fan, but his season has been pretty good, and whether I like to admit it or not, he is a franchise QB. He’s made the best from what he had, which isn’t much outside of Matt Forte on offense. He’s definitely prone to make some ill advised throws here and there, but overall Cutler has grown a lot since last year’s abysmal season. I can’t remember a home team that was the #2 seed, and won their division, and was still a dog. That point alone sold me on this pick.

I like the Packers defense and offense better than Chicago’s, but that doesn’t always win you games. I think a few turnovers, and some solid returns from Hester set the Bears up for a win. These divisional games are usually very close, so it’s impossible to not take the points.

By picks Green Bay (-3.5). Normally I’d be shocked to find that a team that barely made the playoffs (albeit through no fault of their own, 2010 Seattle Seahawks) would be the favorite on the road against a team who finished second in the conference.  But not if said team had Aaron Rodgers as their QB.  I was high on Atlanta all season, and despite the fact that they weren’t the Pittsburgh Steelers on defense, the Falcons still did enough to hold off opponents for wins.  But Aaron Rodgers absolutely destroyed them.  He’s been picking apart most of the defenses he’s seen for a minute now, and is easily the hottest QB heading into the conference championships.  Combine that with the opportunistic defense of Green Bay, and the Packers have a winning combination.  If “loosey goosey” Jay Cutler rears his ugly head at all this weekend, the Pack will get a few picks and send the Bears into hibernation.

NY Jets @ Pittsburgh (-3.5)

Chappy picks NY Jets (+3.5). Should we start calling him the Sanchize again? He’s already graduated from my nickname earlier in the year the SanCheckdown. I may have fallen prey to the media surrounding Sanchez, because he never can do enough to get love from the writers, me being one of them. He has had a good year, but this weekend against the league’s best rush defense he is going to have to step up. I don’t see him going for over 300 yards or anything, but his ability to pick up third downs will be the difference in the game. We know the Jets will run whether they gain yards or not, so it’s going to be up to Sanchez to find ways to convert those third and longs. I think the Steelers will win, but since it’s opposite day I have to stick with the Jets. Plus, I don’t really like that everyone calls the Steelers Americas team. It’s better than Dallas being called Americas team, but nobody outside of the Saints last year should have that label, because is America really rooting for the Steelers? Laughable if you ask me…

By picks N.Y. Jets (+3.5). As much as I think Alex Smith could easily be Mark Sanchez if it were he riding the coat tails of that tremendous Jets’ defense, I must admit, that scoring drive to answer New England’s, culminating in a beautiful touchdown grab by Santonio Holmes was quite impressive.  Impressive considering what was at stake.  If they don’t score, I truly believe New England’s momentum carries them to a come back victory.  But Sanchez nipped that in the bud.  The Steelers are a wholenother monster.  Sanchez will not perform so eloquently against the best defense in the business.  But he won’t have to.  I think Sanchez has developed a comfort level in being the game manager/clutch timely passing QB.  His 4-1 playoff record would back that statement up.  As good as a defense is, you need someone who can make the plays when it counts on offense.  If Sanchez could be the equivalent to the 2000 Trent Dilfer, then by all means Jets fans, take it.  I think he’s almost there.  When everything’s said and done, I believe the Steelers are by far the better team.  But if I have to go with my gut instinct, I think the Jets pull this out.


Doin Divisional Lines

0-2 on Saturday 2-0 on Sunday. I’ll take it since I hit one parlay at least. Wild card weekend is always fun, but the real matchups start in the Divisional round, and what better way to have it play out than two games with divisional rivals! Stat of the week for the divisional round. The home teams are 10-10 in the divisional round over the last five years. So, I guess I have to take two road teams this week to keep that trend going. I’m loving all the trash talking going on this week, which just gives us a few more things to watch over the weekend.

2-2 last week, not bad, but I could do better.  I do feel I deserve some bonus points for predicting the Seattle upset. Anyway, as Jay-Z would say “On to the next, on on to the next one”.


Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-3)

Chappy picks Baltimore (+3). I’ve been leaning on the Ravens and Steelers all season with my picks, and have declared it the best division in football from time to time. It’s really a coin flip when these two teams hook up, because they are basically the same team built the same way. I honestly think the Steelers will win, but I usually pick this match up wrong, so this time I’m going with the team that’s getting points. The road team won both games this year when they matched up, so I’m hoping that trend continues with this pick. If Polamalu is the Steelers best player, and he isn’t 100% then I feel like it might be one of those injuries that makes him ineffective. Kind of like when Freeney was hurt in the Super Bowl last year. He was on the field, but not really there, which is a huge blow to the heart of the D. I’m going to go out on a limb and say this is the first time we see the new overtime rules tested.

By picks Baltimore (+3). This is the first of three tough match ups this weekend (not including the spread), can you guess which one is the odd game out?  Pittsburgh is a legit contender, and given the fact that they’re at home this weekend should be enough for me to pick them.  But there’s something I don’t like about the Steelers that I can’t quite get my finger on in this match up, and therefore I choose the Ravens.  Perhaps I just get the feeling Baltimore’s destined to make a trip to Texas come February, and I’ve done a pretty decent job with going with my gut instincts this season.  Also, I can’t root against a Harbaugh right now.

Green Bay @ Atlanta (-2.5)

Starks is the key on Saturday

Chappy picks Atlanta (-2.5). I think I’ll be rooting for the Packers in this one. Mostly because I’ve had a mini-mancrush on Rodgers for a while, but that doesn’t mean I think they will win. The Falcons are one of the few complete teams top to bottom. They might not be flashy or have a true identity like everybody wants them to have, but they get the job done. I think this is going to be a close game, and if the Falcons show any rust after having a week off, the Packers need to take advantage of it early. I still just can’t talk myself into Starks having two big games in a row out of nowhere. The Packers D has been great lately, but they haven’t faced as balanced of a team as Atlanta in a while. Turner’s running should neutralize Clay Matthews pass rush a little bit as the game goes along. The Falcons have given up 18 points or fewer and gotten two takeaways in all of their last four games. If they hold the Packers under 18 points, I see them winning.

By picks Atlanta (-2.5).  This is difficult pick for personal reasons.  I’m a huge Cal fan, as my girlfriend is an alumni, so Aaron Rodgers is among my favorite signal callers to cheer for, and aside from where he went to school, he throws a pretty ball, which I admire.  But for some reason, I’ve become a ginormous Matt Ryan supporter, and I can’t bail ship on him and the Falcons now.  Plus I still think the Falcons have too many weapons on offense to be contained over four quarters.  Atlanta in this one.

This isn't Qwest Field, Seattle.

Seattle @ Chicago (-10)

Chappy picks Seattle (+10). I can’t remember the last time I saw a double-digit line in the second round of the playoffs. I’m almost positive the Bears will win, because they know how to tackle better than the Saints, but feel like it will be somewhat close. The Bears like to keep games close with all those negative plays they rack up. Did you know that Forte and Cutler have combined for a whopping 134 negative plays!?! I didn’t until Skip Bayless just told me. The Seattle defense looked great against the Saints. I think they will look equally as good against a lesser offense. Take the points in this one even if you don’t really believe in Seattle.

By picks Chicago (-10). Giving up ten points in a divisional playoff game is tough, but two reasons why I think the Bears cover are:  A)  Seattle isn’t going to sneak up on anybody now and B)  They won’t have the twelfth man behind them in this one, which was a huge advantage for them last week.  In fact, being that they’re going to be playing out in the cold, I give Seattle little chance to crack double digits in points here.  Chicago big.

New York Jets @ New England (-9)

BB vs RR

Chappy picks New England (-9). Did I already say I loved the trash talking going on this week? Okay, just checking. Cromartie said he hates Tom Brady. When asked about it again he didn’t pull a Lebron and take back what he said, he re-enforced it saying he’s hated him since 2006. I guess I just like to throw in Lebron jabs where I can. Anyways, this game is the one I’m least looking forward to. Actually, I’m not really that excited about the Sunday slate overall, but hopefully I’m pleasantly surprised with some good football. This game should be cool if you’re a Patriots fan. Belichick always has his guys ready, and with an extra week they probably have a brand new playbook. Brady knows how to score points on the Jets, and with them missing their talented safety Jim Leonard, the Patriots will be hitting their tight ends all game long. The only way the Jets stay close enough to pull out a miracle is if they dominate the time of possession. I’m thinking a 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 ratio in their favor is their only hope.

By picks N.Y. (+9). Not sure why New England’s giving up nine here, are the Jets that bad?  Would the odd makers give the Colts nine.  Anyway, enough with the talk, let’s get it on!  I can’t wait for this game to start.  I do feel an upset brewing though, the Jets may talk a big game, but they’re also in a position where they have nothing to lose.  No one expects them to win, I mean they’re nine-point dogs for crying out loud.  Rex Ryan will motivate these guys come Sunday and at the very least they’ll cover.


Doin Wild Lines

6-0 last week. I can’t believe it took me all season to finally have a perfect week, but it actually happened! What was even better about the perfect week is that it put me over.500 for the season for the first time all season. It’s been a fun this year having By around to keep me motivated on making all these picks. Plus, it’s much more fun than caring about the Starbucks logo changing. Hopefully next year I can take By down!! Also, this week we were joined by Ryan Meehan from First Order Historians. I made the same picks over on his site if you want to check out even more reasons why I picked these teams check it out here.

I must admit, I’m a bit jealous Chaps had a perfect week, something that I was striving for all season long.  But I can’t complain about a 42-35-5 record on the season, the first time I’ve made picks in which I could reflect back on from a whole season’s worth.  It was real fun joining Chaps this season, and I definitely look forward to next (if there is one).  According to Roger Goodell, there will be.  But for now it’s money time, onto the playoffs!

Week 17 (Chap 6-0, By 2-2) Overall (Chap 48-47-3 By 42-35-5)

New Orleans (-10.5) @ Seattle

Chappy picks New Orleans -10.5. Is there any question on this one? Seattle shouldn’t be in the playoffs, and the Saints will show us all why. I understand that Drew Brees hasn’t had a career year, and has thrown quite a few picks this year, but you know what makes up for a subpar season? Winning in January. He’s shown he can do that, and I think he’ll open up a few big plays against a not very impressive Seahawks defense. Plus, the Saints have had the same problems as two other playoff teams during the regular season, injuries to the offense (Packers and Colts), but were good enough to still win 10 games. I feel like injuries were the reason the Falcons are widely conceived to be a much better team. Now, Brees has most of his weapons back at the right time, so we will soon see who is best, I think they’d play next round.

By picks Seattle (+10.5). What!?  I stated how much I hate Pete Carrol before right?  So why the contradiction here?  Why would I pick his team to win?  Quite simply put, this game can only head in one of two directions.  Either the Saints completely mop the floor with the Seahawks winning by some 40 points, or the Seahawks pull off one of the greatest upsets in playoff history by dethroning the champs.  There’s no in between in my eyes.  There’s no Seahawks lose a tight one.  And as much as I love Drew Brees and despise Cheat Carrol, I’m hoping Seattle shows some NFC West pride and represents our division well.  Otherwise the NFL might have themselves a BCS like controversy in terms of how they decide playoff participants going forward.  Seahawks have nothing to lose here, which makes them dangerous, I like their chances.

Meehan picks New Orleans -10.5.   The Seahawks ended the year with a -79 point differential, and to make matters even more depressing, lost every one of those nine games by 15 points or more.  Yikes.  Later on, I’ll discuss why this upsets me so much.  The Seahawks shouldn’t get their “12th man” advantage, because this game should be in New Orleans.  They didn’t beat anybody good and all of the good teams they played they got smoked.  Now, I’m picking the Saints, but I will say that if an upset this weekend has to happen it’s this one here. Prediction:  New Orleans Saints 32, Seattle Seahawks 15

NY Jets @ Indianapolis (-2.5) Continue reading


Doin Lines Week 17

Actually, "We'll" Be Back!

We made it through another season of picks, and fortunately now all we have left after this one is the playoffs which is much easier since there aren’t nearly as many games. I can’t lie, I thought I’d do better this year, and after last week’s ugly 2-5 there’s no chance of hitting .500 on the year. Oh well, maybe the new year will bring me better picks for the playoffs.

Happy New Year’s to all our readers out there!  May 2011 bring you plenty of success and happiness!  I went 2-3 last week, and I’m actually quite happy about it being that I was on track for an 0-5 week.  My main goal is to not screw anything up and stay above .500 on the year.  Then I’ll ride that momentum into the playoffs.

Oakland @ Kansas City (-3.5)

Chappy picks Oakland +3.5. KC doesn’t have much to play for. It looks like they will be hosting the Jets in the first round of the playoffs. Oakland feels like they have something to play for as they want to be the first team to sweep their divisional games and not make the playoffs. Great record to have I guess. Cable will be coaching for his job, and an 8-8 finish might just keep that in tact.

By picks Oakland +3.5. Being that K.C. has locked things up in the AFC West, the Chiefs don’t have much riding on this game.  I wish there were more at stake for this game because the Raiders/Chiefs rivalry is always a good one when both teams are playing well.  With that said, the Raiders would like nothing more than to end 2010 with a good win and look forward to 2011.  I think they get it done.

Miami @ New England (-4)

Chappy picks New England (-4). I’m scared the Pats will rest players, but going back to their (almost) perfect season they didn’t rest guys, so I don’t see them doing it this week. If this was in Miami I might take the points, but since it’s in Foxboro not sure how you couldn’t roll with the Pats. They haven’t really had a close game since they played the Colts in week 11, no reason for this one to be close.

Jacksonville @ Houston (-3)

By picks Houston (-3). Well Houston once again followed the same pattern of years past.  Fast start, slow finish.  It’s a shame a team with this much potential’s season highlight will be officially eliminating a banged up Jags team from playoff contention.  Pocket Hercules is not at 100%, and without him, the Jags can’t compete.  In fact, is Pocket Hercules even playing?  In fact, even if he was I still like the Texans by 10.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-9.5)

Chappy picks Cincinnati +9.5. This has been a terrible season for Cincy, but they do cover a lot of spreads. Last week they even beat SD without their duo of diva receivers. Baltimore is in no matter what, and has to count on a Pittsburgh loss to win the division. I think Baltimore wins this game, but when they pull all their starters Cincy works its way back within a TD.

Brett who?

Minnesota @ Detroit (-3)

Chappy picks Minnesota (+3). Last week convinced me that the Vikes are still a decent team when they have a QB that doesn’t turn the ball over. Can’t say I really knew who Joe Webb was last week, but after seeing him play Tuesday he looks like he could lead this team to another victory. They have a short week to prepare, and Detroit is on a two game winning streak, so they are bound to come back to earth. Plus the Lions need a higher draft pick, so no need to try this weekend.

New York Giants (-4) @ Washington

By picks New York (-4). Similar to last season, the Giants have had a bit of a let down in 2010.  They’ll win impressively this week, as the Redskins are along the lines of Carolina, woeful, but New York still misses the playoffs.

Carolina @ Atlanta (-14.5)

Chappy picks Atlanta (-14.5). This pick scares me. The Falcons could have this one locked up at halftime, and when they are up by 28 they could pull their starters which would give the Panthers a chance to cover. Fortunately Claussen is one of the worst passers in the league, and will save this bet with a few pick sixes to keep the Falcons lead growing. If there’s one guy that needs to have a good game its Claussen, to prove to the team that they don’t need to draft Luck #1 overall, but that’s not going to happen, and Luck will be the unlucky Panthers QB.

St. Louis (-3) @ Seattle

Hi, I'm Pete, please punch my face.

By picks St. Louis (-3). Well somebody has to win this s**t division, and St. Louis’ is as worthy as anybody.  I might have picked Seattle at home had Matt Hasselbeck not been injured, but without their leader the Seahawks have no chance.  Plus I hate Pete Carrol and would rather see the Rams do a one and done post season run than Seattle.  St. Louis by 10.

San Diego @ Denver (+3.5)

Chappy picks San Diego (-3.5). SD had the top ranked defense and top ranked offense for a good portion of the season. Do they want Norv to stick around. If they don’t I could see them tanking this game, but I don’t think they will against a division rival. SD doesn’t want to have a losing season, and they won’t let Tebow do what he did to Houston’s horrible D. Tebow gets pummeled, and everyone questions whether he’s really a true QB all offseason.


Doin Lines Week 15

3-2 last week was okay. I guess it’s better than a losing week, but not by much. The season is getting interesting as we head down the home stretch, but after my Raiders lost last week it made me not pay attention to the happenings going on in the NFL during the week. I’ll call it a mini-depression that only comes when your team’s hopes are dashed. I guess there’s a little hope, but not much, so for now I’m hoping they can sweep their divisional games for the first time in decades.

Don’t have much to say as a prelude to my picks but look at that overall record.  I’m smiling from ear to ear considering where I stood in the early part of the season.  The best part about my picks these past few weeks is they’ve actually won me some coin.  Being that we just finished our “Naughty” or “Nice” list, and Christmas is around the corner I think it’s only right I ask Santa for one thing.  No 2011 NFL lock out.  And no 2011-2012 NBA lock out.  O.K. sorry Santa, that’s two things.  I got greedy.

Week 14 (By 3-1-1, Chap 3-2) Overall (By 35-30-5, Chap 36-40-3)

Houston @ Tennessee (-1.5)

By picks Houston (+1.5).  This might be fool’s gold being that Matt Schaub hasn’t exactly been the model of consistency this season, but take away that horrible decision to pass it to the wrong team in extra innings, and Schaub played a spectacular game against the Ravens last Monday, which is why I’ll take Houston this week.  Both teams aren’t going anywhere this season, but the Texans have to do enough for us to believe that next year is “their” year.  And so a good showing on the road versus a division rival should suffice.  For the Titans, my advice to them would be tank the season and hit rock bottom.  That way a mediocre 2011 (if there is a season) would be enough to satisfy the Tennessee fans.  I think they’ll take my advice.

Arizona (-2.5) @ Carolina

Chappy picks Carolina (+2.5). This might be one of the crappiest match ups in recent memory. I haven’t really watched either of these teams much this year, because they haven’t been worthy of three hours of attention. Carolina has been running the ball a little better with Stewart finding some holes, and Steve Smith being back might help the offense a little more. That being said they still suck. The Cardinals are in last place in the NFC Worst, but for some inexplicable reason are still in the playoff hunt. This is the first time all year I’ve picked Carolina, so I had to take them at least once, right!?! Arizona is going across the country to play a morning game, and with bad teams that’s a big deal.

By picks Carolina +2.5. Like Chappy said, this possibly is the worse NFL match up all season.  Scratch that, dare I say, all time?  It’s hard to believe the Arizona Cardinals were one or two plays from hoisting the Lombardy Trophy two years ago.  A lot of things have factored into their down fall since then, but the main reason is obvious.  Cutting Matt Leinhart.  What were the Cards thinking!?  All jokes aside, all this Cardinals losing has strengthen Kurt Warner’s case towards Canton.  I don’t know of one thing the Cards do well besides lose, and so despite the Panthers sucking major balls too, I’ve got to go with Carolina at home here.  I guess Jonathan Stewart’s been running well lately.  There.  That’s a better reason to go with the Panthers.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-5)  Continue reading


Doin Lines Week 14

A 2-4 week has me thinking I will never crack the .500 mark this season. Luckily I hit a parlay to break even money wise, but I’m sure you all could care less about that. I think everyone has found this season a little strange in that there aren’t a ton of contenders that cover the spread every week, and looking through the lines I was shocked to see that there wasn’t one double digit favorite. What does this mean? Even the odds makers are a little befuddled by this season! The highest spread is New Orleans -9 at home. Speaking of NO, is it just me or are they the least hyped defending champs ever? I don’t hear the morning FOX, CBS, or ESPN gangs raving about anything the Saints are doing, and aren’t they the champs until someone knocks them off? I guess not in this Twitter age. The Patriots and Jets must be the only teams worthy of our attention, so the networks have led me to believe. I just can’t get over how many people were on their bandwagon last year and now, no love at all. What gives?!?

What gives is right!  As in, what gives with a 2-3 record last week!?  Well I am a firm believer in karma, or getting your “just dues”, and the way I was approaching my picks last week, like it was some sort of guaranteed 5-0 event, let’s just say I got what I deserved with those results.  Time to get myself back on the positive side this week.  On a side note, the Bo Sox just signed Carl Crawford!?  Looks like Bean Town’s the new “Evil Empire” in baseball …

Week 13 (By 2-3, Chap 2-4) Overall (By 32-29-4, Chap 33-38-3)

Indianapolis @ Tennessee (+3)

By picks Indy (-3). I will beat this horse dead, but I’m not going to stop riding it.  Wait, does that even make sense?  I guess what I’m trying to say is, I’m not jumping off the Peyton Manning ship just yet, especially in a must win scenario at a division rival.  As horrible as Manning has been these past three weeks, he’s still one of the greatest QB’s to ever play the game, which in my book, means something.  He will right the ship this week and trust his guys more.  On the other side of the ball, Tennessee is a mess.  Vince Young, Randy Moss, need I say more?

Oakland @ Jacksonville (-4) Continue reading


Doin Lines Week 13

Another 4-1 week for me?  My confidence is so high though, that I dare call that average.  Chappy and I have had a pretty busy week with *gasp* work (can you believe it?) so we threw around the idea of “Doin One Liners” for the weekly edition of “Doin Lines”.  Basically, we state our reason for taking a team in one or two brief sentences.  I’m actually going to try this …

3-3 wasn’t too bad last week since I was sure I’d have a losing week, either way I’d say it was a better day than the guy pictured up top here. Like By said it was a rough week of work, so sometimes the blogging time suffers. Oh well, gotta make that paper to have some money to bet on these games.

Week 12 (By 4-1, Chap 3-3) Overall (By 30-26, Chap 31-34-3)

Buffalo @ Minnesota (-5.5)

By picks Buffalo (+5.5). Minnesota got their new coach a nice win in his debut, but now it’s back to mediocre football for the Vikes.  The Bills will win so Steve Johnson can start thanking the man upstairs again, instead of blaming him.  

Washington @ NY Giants (-7)

Chappy picks NYG (-7). They lost to Philly and Dallas, so I think they are due to put a hurting on a division foe, if they really are a good team that is. Too bad this stadium is not much of a home field advantage…

Denver @ Kansas City (-8.5) Continue reading


Doin Lines Week 11

Maybe Jared needs to bring back the mullet lines to get Minny their mojo back...

A ho-hum 2-3 week has handed me the feeling that I’ll never figure this year out. Should I quit? Probably, but I’m addicted to losing money! My recent pattern has shown that I will have one good week then one bad week, so the good news is, I should have a good one this weekend. Now that we are past all the bye weeks, there’s a lot more games to pick from, so hopefully picking out the winners won’t be as tough.

I’m so close I can smell it.  I’m going with my usual five picks this week, but along with choosing by gut instinct, I’m using deductive reasoning.  Well, at least I think I am.  I swear I’m better than what my record indicates, but enough talking.  Time to show and prove.  These next five weeks are going to be killer.  Forget above .500, I’m going to the .600 club.  Who’s coming with me!?

Week 11 (Chap 2-3, By 3-2) Overall (Chap 24-29-3, By 22-24-4)

Oakland @ Pittsburgh (-7)

Chappy picks Oakland (+7). I’m not overly confident in this pick, especially since I think the Steelers are one of the best teams in the league. I do however like the Raiders coming off their bye week. They are healthy for the first time since week 4, and get back a slew of starters. Most importantly Nnamdi, Zach Miller, Louis Murphy, John Henderson, and Chaz Schillens are all going to be playing. Their best receiver and top targeted tight end should improve the passing game, and the way Brady picked them apart with the two tight end sets, we will need Campbell to have all the weapons possible. Remembering back to last year the game that got us to believe in Gradkowski? Well, if you don’t, it was in Pittsburgh, and they won behind Louis Murphy going off for 128 yards and two TD’s. On the Steelers side of the ball they could be without Hines Ward, which would give Mike Wallace a date with Nnamdi this weekend. I like our chances with that match up. The Raiders are third in the league in sacks, so if the Steelers do win, it will be because of Mendenhall carrying the load. Take the points, seven is a more than generous amount from the oddsmakers.

Green Bay (-3) @ Minnesota

By picks Green Bay (-3). I’m not a big fan of kicking someone when they’re down.  Unless that someone is Brett Favre.  Listen, I’m not one to pretend I’m unaware of his greatness, but if you’re a egotistical princess, well, I just won’t like you.  But, that’s not why I’m picking Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this week.  Minnesota is about as dysfunctional as a team can be right now.  When players publicly, but anonymously rip their coach apart, you can’t help but think they’re through playing for him.  The Vikings might drop this game big, on purpose.  I’m just saying.

Baltimore (-10) @ Carolina Continue reading