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Doin Championship Lines

Chappy: You can’t get much better football than the game the Saints-49ers played last weekend. Through the craziness at the end of that game I almost forgot I even won money on my bet!

By:  Broncos/Steelers, Niners/Saints!?  What more could you ask for from January football!?  It’s an exciting time to be a 49ers fan, and I’m crossing my finger Eli Manning reverts back to his overrated self for one game.  Let’s go Niners!

Last week: Chap (2-2) By (2-2)

Playoffs: Chap (3-5) By (4-4)

Regular Season: Chap (50-35-4) By (27-20)

Baltimore @ New England (-7)

Chappy picks Baltimore (+7). You didn’t think a Raiders fan would actually pick the Pats did you? I can’t believe how much they’re showing the damn Walter Coleman overturned tuck rule game on ESPN lately, so very depressing… Anyways, it’s hard to feel overly confident picking the team that has players questioning their own QB, but I feel like the Ravens can hang with the Patriots who haven’t beaten a team with a winning record all season, well unless you count the 9-9 Broncos as a winning team. That stat alone makes me feel like Baltimore will cover the spread. The Pats defense isn’t as good as it showed last weekend, and Baltimore’s offense will do better against them than they did against Houston’s top 5 defense. Another thing that makes me feel like Baltimore will cover is Brady usually has bad games against the Ravens. For some reason this D has his number and forces him into bad decisions that he usually doesn’t make against other teams. The Patriots don’t have the receivers to stretch the field that they’ll need to keep the Ravens D off balance.

By picks Baltimore (+7).  Remember the last team to come into Gillette Stadium and hand the Patriots an ass kicking in a playoff game?  Yes, it was these Baltimore Ravens, and amazingly, that defense is still in tact and just as good if not better.  I don’t know how many deals with the devils were done on that side of the ball, but these old guys can still play some really fantastic, smash mouth defense.  Then again, this is Tom Brady we’re talking about, and if anyone would be unintimidated to face these wolves, it would be him.  However the outcome, one thing’s for sure, these aren’t the Denver Broncos coming to town.  I believe this game is going to get really ugly before it gets pretty, and while I still think the Brady Bunch pulls it off at home, it definitely will come down to the wire.  Game winning field goal anyone?

New York Giants @ San Francisco (-2.5)

Chappy picks San Francisco (-2.5). Is it possible the Giants are overconfident against the 49ers? Is it possible that since the 49ers beat them in the regular season and that BOTH teams are playing better not just the Giants? Yes and yes. The Niners offense is not the Packers offense, yet they seem to be scoring more TD’s than field goals for the past few games. Maybe they finally figured out what to do in the red zone that they were sorely missing earlier in the season, because the scoreboard has reflected it. One of Alex Smith’s best games passing in the regular season was against the Giants, so I have no reservations against them put up 25+ points. If it’s truly a wet field, the Giants will have to play more zone, which they are not good at, and will help Alex a lot. Another thing is the 49ers defense. They HIT everyone hard. Every guy they knock out has to take some steam out of the other team like when Pierre Thomas was knocked out last weekend. The Aldon/Justin Smith combo is going to hit Eli a lot. I don’t see how they’ll be able to run the ball, when nobody runs on the 49ers.

By picks San Francisco (-2.5).  Can’t believe the Niners are favored?  Perhaps that’s a bad thing though.  The Niners have played the underdog roll perfectly all season, and despite the second best record in the NFC, no one gave them a chance against the Saints last week.  I must say, that game might have very well been the best game I’ve viewed in the history of my life.  What a game, what a game.  Anyway, I don’t need to get into this too much, I’m a homer, and I’m obviously confident in my Niners and feel they could take this thing the distance.  The forecast calls for rain on Sunday, which will make the Giants even more one dimensional on offense, advantage us.  I don’t want to speak to much on this game in fear of jinxing something, but Niners should win and cover, then hopefully ride that momentum towards a 6th franchise championship.

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Doin Divisional Lines

Chappy: I can’t remember a first round of the playoffs that I did well in, and last week was no exception missing 3 of 4 picks. No big deal though, there’s plenty of time for redemption. Last weekend was somewhat boring for playoff football, but now it looks like we’re getting into the fun match ups. If you happened to miss Tebow’s pass to win it in overtime, here’s an awesome peanut remake of the play.

Last Week: By (2-2) Chap (1-3)

Regular Season: By (27-20) Chap (50-35-4)

New Orleans @ San Francisco (+3.5)

Chappy picks San Francisco (+3.5). I can’t really tell if I’m rooting for the 49ers to win or not. I have mixed emotions about them returning to glory while the Raiders continue to spiral in god knows what direction. That being said, if there’s a team that can slow Brees down, this is the team. I feel like the biggest match up of this game will be Sproles. If they stop him, they will be able to get the Saints off the field. If not, they might be in for the longest day their defense has seen in awhile. If there’s one thing I love about the Niners it’s their linebackers abilities, and Bowman and Willis will be able to cover Sproles and Graham. The 49ers are also coming in probably the healthiest they’ve been all season, which is another reason I’m taking them in this one.

By picks who else? SF (+3.5)  Obviously I’m a homer on this one, but without sounding too bias, I’ll state some reasons as to why the Niners might be able to pull this off.  #1 – We’re at home, we’ll have a blood thirsty crowd on our side, and I’m crossing my fingers it’s going to be windy/rainy as hell over here come Saturday.  #2 – We have the best defense in the NFL, and if the old adage holds true, defense is supposed to win championships.  I couldn’t agree more with what Chappy said above, and it’s the same thing I’ve been telling all my friends/family/co-workers all week, if we can contain Darren Sproles, we have a legitimate shot at slowing down the Saints offense.  I believe the Niners front 7 will get to Brees before deeper routes can develop, and if his safety valve in Sproles is locked up, it changes the complexity of their entire offense.  I don’t think the Saints score more than 20 against us.  The question is, will we get 21 against them?

Denver @ New England (-13.5)

Chappy picks New England (-13.5). Did Tebow really win throwing the ball last weekend? Do the Patriots really have WR’s starting in their secondary? I can’t see Tebow winning two weeks in a row throwing the way he did at the end of the season, not that I couldn’t throw against the Pats secondary, but I see God ending his sons magic run this weekend. The Patriots were the first team to make the “blueprint” on how to force Tebow out of his comfort zone (making him roll to the left), and now they have Josh McDaniels on their coaching staff they’ll know even more ways to stop him. Not sure why Pittsburgh didn’t use that template, instead blitzing nearly every down, but that’s beside the point.

By picks Tebow (+13.5).  What Tebow did to the Steelers THROUGH THE AIR last weekend was amazing.  I never questioned his ability to rise to the occasion, and do whatever is asked of him, but he took it a step further with his uplifting performance last week.  And it’s hard for me to think the magic ends here.  Bare in mind that prior to Brady taking over the 2nd half of an earlier match up between these two this year, Tebow and the Broncos were dominating the Pats.  Something fell apart for them, and Brady simply never released his hands from their throat.  The difference this time is, Tebow can throw!  New England’s defense couldn’t stop a leaky faucet from running, but now they have to play the pass too?  The dynamic of this match up has completely swung, and when all else fails, how can you ever bet against God’s quarterback?

Houston @ Baltimore (-7.5)

Chappy picks Baltimore (-7.5). I don’t know many people that really think the Texans are going to win, but will they cover is the real question. I am nervous about relying on Joe “I’m feeling disrespected even though I haven’t done anything in the playoffs” Flacco to win by more than a TD, but Baltimore is the perfect type of team to face Houston in that they can shut down the run even as good as Arian Foster is. It will be tough for the Texans to score, and still being in their first franchise playoff run, I don’t see them coming out on top. If Baltimore loses, I may never pick them again in the playoffs… Their regular season match up was a long time ago, I don’t see that factoring in the equation much because they had Schaub still as their QB.

By picks Houston (+7.5). Yes, I’m picking three, count ’em three upsets this week.  And yes, I’m not picking Houston to just cover, they’re going into Baltimore this weekend, and then flying back home to get ready to host the Broncos next week.  That’s an A1 BOLD prediction for you!  Really though, I like Arian Foster.  A lot.  And then there’s Ben Tate.  When you have a line, and two backs like that, it puts a lot of pressure on a defense, albeit a great one.  But this will be like a heavyweight fight, and what might be the difference in this game is who you trust more at quarterback.  Oddly enough, I already like T.J. Yates better.  Houston’s going to pound and pound away, then set up a big play action late to steal this game away.

New York Giants @ Green Bay (-7.5)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-7.5). If this Giants win this game, maybe I’ll believe all that they’re the same as the 2007 team crap they keep shoving down my throat. Until then, you gotta roll with the champs. The Packers didn’t look as good without Greg Jennings on offense, but low and behold he’s back, so I see them getting back to their video game type numbers. Will Eli be able to keep up on the scoreboard? Yes, but I forsee a Charles Woodson or Nick Collins pick 6 at some point to cover that spread.

By picks Green Bay (-7.5).  Yeah, yeah.  We’re hearing it from every angle from the media.  The Giants are clicking, and they’re resembling the 2007 playoff team that rode late momentum towards a championship upset.  Except this is mother f**kin’ Aaron Rodgers.  ‘Nuff said.  Pack win, and win big.


Doin Lines Week 17

We missed the lines for the first time in its three year existence last weekend. There was just too much going on with life to get a post up. Fortunately for me, I now can’t finish the regular season below .500 this year, so I’m playing with house money this final weekend of the season! And as a tribute to me winning, may as well put Charlie Sheen atop the post.

Week 15: Chap (2-3)

Overall: Chap (46-33-4), By (27-20)

San Francisco @ St. Louis (+10.5)

Chappy picks San Francisco (-10.5). It might take awhile for the Niners to get four field goals on the board, but once they do it’s a lock to cover. I don’t see the Rams scoring really at all against this stout D without Bradford behind center. Steven Jackson is no Marshawn Lynch these days as dinged up as he’s been. The Niners should be motivated for this game since they want a bye week, and that can only happen with a win, and with the tie-breaker over New Orleans that’s all they really have to do, which sounds like plenty of motivation to me.

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (-3.5)

Chappy picks Indy (+3.5). If there’s one thing the Colts have shown us this year it’s that they don’t care to tank a season for Andrew Luck. Not sure I entirely agree with this strategy, but in this crapfest of a game, I’m taking the points. Jacksonville doesn’t confuse opposing defenses much on offense giving the ball to MJD on half their plays, so I feel like Indy stays close enough to cover in what will be the least watchable game on the Sunday slate.

New York Jets @ Miami (-2)

Chappy picks Miami (-2). The Dolphins have proven to be a solid team this second half of the season. Too bad they wasted away their first six games or they could be in contention for a playoff spot. Reggie has proved he’s an every down back much to the surprise of well, everyone… It’s a shame this might be Jason Taylor’s last game. It looks like the guy has more in the tank, but I can’t see them letting him end his career with a loss. He’s going to pound Sanchez into a couple of interceptions.

Carolina @ New Orleans (-8)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-8). The Saints don’t have to play their starters, but since they still have a shot at the #2 seed if SF loses, they do have something to play for. They’re at home against a so-so Carolina defense, so there are plenty of points to be had for Brees and Co. I see him stacking on another 300+ yards to his passer record, and what’s even more amazing about Brees season is he might not even win the MVP. Cam might have another 3-5 TD game, but that won’t be enough against a team that usually puts up 40 at home.

San Diego @ Oakland (-3)

Chappy picks Oakland (-3). Probably a hopeful homer pick here, but I do see them beating SD, and the Broncos winning as well keeping Oakland out of the playoffs once again. Jacoby Ford has made his way to the practice field this week for the first time since Carson’s second game. Have I been overly excited about Palmer’s play lately? Not really, but having all of his receivers healthy is going to help him this weekend. They’ve played really well at home this season, and I think that will continue with a lot on the line. After they win, hopefully Orton can upset god and beat the Denver Tebows. There will be a post about it if that does indeed happen, but I’m not holding my breathe.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-11.5)

Chappy picks Atlanta (-11.5). A pissed off Atlanta team playing against a doormat of a team in Tampa feels like the perfect storm for a blowout, and letting some of the key Falcons sit for the final couple quarters. The Falcons already clinched a playoff spot, but it doesn’t take much to beat the Bucs these days as the team seems to have given up on Raheem whether he fires himself or the team fires him.


Doin Lines Week 14

Chappy: Let’s just not talk about last weekend and leave it at that since it wasn’t a good week for either of us. Unfortunately By won’t be joining me with the picks this week, because work has gotten in the way again.

Last Week: Chappy (2-3) By (1-3)

Overall: Chappy (38-26-4) By (27-20)

Oakland @ Green Bay (-11)

New Orleans @ Tennessee (+3.5)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-3.5). I’ve rarely bet on the Titans games, because they’re a very hard team to figure out. I’ve heard all about how the Saints struggle on the road, but this offense is clicking on a level they haven’t seen since their 2009 Super Bowl run. It hasn’t just been through the air either. Regardless of who’s been running the ball  or catching out of the backfield they’ve been gobbling up the yardage. I know Chris Johnson is tearing it up lately, but the rest of the Titans offense just doesn’t convince me they’ll be able to keep up on the scoreboard. Maybe they’re 7-5 for a reason, but I honestly can’t put my finger on why they are.

New England @ Washington (+8)

Chappy picks New England (-8). Is this the same New England team that was favored by 20 last weekend against a Colts team that was put to sleep with Peyton’s neck surgery anesthesia? I think so, and I’m sure they know that last weekends game was way too close for comfort. I expect to see a huge game from Brady and Co with their defense stepping up more than it has in a few weeks. I’m sure the Grossman-Helu option play will get the Pats prepared perfectly for their match up with the Denver Tebows in week 15.

Oakland @ Green Bay (-11)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-11). I wish one of the three injured guys between McFadden, Ford, and Moore was healthy enough to play. If ONE of them was playing I’d feel comfortable that the Raiders would be able to cover the spread. I’m getting annoyed with how Hue has been our defacto GM this year, and trying to wear too many hats in the organization. I didn’t mind the Palmer trade, and still don’t, but the second time he was put into a GM type ruling with McClain, he showed us why he can’t do both jobs. While worrying about trading for Palmer, we ended up getting thumped by KC. While worrying about whether or not to play McClain last weekend ended with them getting destroyed by Miami. Hue didn’t have the team prepared the two times he was playing GM instead of concentrating on winning that week’s game like a HC should be doing. I look for the Raiders to play better than last week, but let’s face it, they’re playing the Packers in Lambeau… Oh a sad note, my condolences go out to Chris Johnson, and the sister he lost to a senseless shooting, maybe Rolando will learn something from this.

Chicago @ Denver (-3.5)

Chappy picks Denver (-3.5). As if it couldn’t look more hopeless for the Raiders supposed resurgent season. Now the healthy Von Miller led Broncos D gets to feast on Caleb Hanie and his Forteless offense. Maybe Urlacher or Briggs can do us a favor and knock a snot bubble out of Tebow. I’m actually predicting there will be no Tebow magic in this one, because the Bears will never really be in this game long enough for that Tebow magic to actually happen. They could probably win with Eric Decker starting at QB this weekend. I think God has one of those stickers on his truck with a Broncos fan peeing on a Raiders logo.

St. Louis @ Seattle (-9.5) 

Chappy picks Seattle (-9.5). I usually try to avoid these games, but this one was an easy choice. Seattle actually looks like a solid team recently. You could even say they’re the Dolphins of the NFC as hot as they’ve been. If you haven’t been enjoying Marshawn going all beast mode the past four weeks, then he must’ve scorned you in a fantasy league in years past. Seattle is really tough to beat at home, and St. Louis forgot how to score points a few weeks ago when they gave up on their season. Not even Steven Jackson can get interested in their games. If the Rams score more than 10 points, I’d call that a mini-win for them at this point.


Doin Lines Week 13

Chappy: Whoa, in By’s absence, I almost had a perfect week if I hadn’t stupidly gone against the Packers on Thanksgiving. This week we both decided to skip the Thursday game altogether… I’m creeping in on my best gambling season since the first year I started betting on the games. Naturally winning a lot that first season got me hooked for life, but this year may have gotten me more into it than ever. Enough of my bragging babbling and onto this weeks picks!

By: Sucks that I was too swamped at work to put in my thoughts on the match ups last week.  But with Chappy going 6-1, the hot streak continues for the Doin Work team, as both of us remain well over .500.  Not much else to say other than enjoy our picks, and onto the lines!

Last Week: Chappy (6-1)

Overall: Chappy (36-23-4) By (26-17)

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-7)

Chappy picks Cincinnati (+7). For some strange reason I’m really confident in this pick. I almost feel like taking the moneyline on this game, but that’s probably not going to happen when I can take a touchdown. The Steelers are coming in banged up with Big Ben’s finger that he injured more in practice, Polamalu’s head, and Woodley’s hammy. The Bengals on the other hand have basically nobody hurt, and are healthier than any team I can think of off the top of my head. Oh and the Bengals are road warriors this year, going 5-0 against the spread. Will Cincy win and keep their playoff hopes alive? I can’t say they will, but it will definitely be a closer than a TD type game.

Atlanta @ Houston (+2.5)

Chappy picks Atlanta (-2.5). I think every week I write that a team is overlooked, and this week is no different as I think Atlanta has really rounded into form, and they catch a huge break playing against a third string QB in T.J. Yates. As if the Texans weren’t predictable enough before with their offensive scheme, now they might run 85% of the time. I see the Texans franchise long 5-game winning streak coming to an end as Matt Ryan puts up some big numbers on a defense that is on the field too much during this game.

By picks Atlanta (-2.5). Atlanta isn’t the best of road teams, but they’re definitely a talented bunch, with enough weapons to compete against the Saints or Packers in a slugfest on any given Sunday.  But the fact that this game is considered an even bet, when Houston will most likely start a third string quarterback in T.J. Yates speaks volume on the balance this Texans team has.  We all know of the two headed monster in the backfield with Foster and Tate, Andre Johnson is back and closing in all full strength, but it’s Houston’s underrated defense that steadies the ship in my opinion.  With all that said, I can’t see the Texans holding off the Falcons with whoever they throw in at quarterback this weekend.  That’s just too much to overcome when considering their opponent.

Oakland @ Miami (-3)

By picks Oakland (+3). Miami has been very tough lately, and prior to the Dallas game last Thanksgiving, their defense has been rather stiff.  In fact, even in that game, they had Tony Romo against the ropes for the greater portion of that game.  Offensively, Matt Moore looks just as effective, if not more effective than Chad Henne did earlier in the season.  And don’t look now, but is that Reggie Bush shouldering the load as the lead back?  Unfortunately Miami is facing an Oakland team that has yet to peak, but is coming off an impressive win against a then streaking Bears team.  When Carson Palmer finally clicks with his receivers, watch out!  The one thing the Raiders can hang their hat on, is that running game.  Darren McWho?  Michael Bush has filled in and at times outshined DMac.  And I expect more of the same this week.  Raiders by 7.

Denver @ Minnesota (PK)

By picks Denver (PK). I’m sorry, but I can’t explain the Tebow phenomenon.  Like I’ve said in the past, I’ve been a Tebow fan, and I knew of what he was capable of doing in college purely on his will to compete, but this is the NFL.  This is the elite among the elite.  And according to the experts, Tebow is not supposed to be successful at this level.  Well he’s 5-1 as a starter this year and has a once dead Broncos team in the hunt for a playoff spot.  It’s tough to bet on a west coast team travelling east, but the fact that one side has a hobbled AP, and the other an improbable winner, I like my chances with the latter.  God’s QB delivers again.

Baltimore @ Cleveland (+6.5)

Chappy picks Baltimore (-6.5). As much as I hate to pick the Ravens after a big win after they seem to usually choke against a crap team like the Browns, but not this weekend. I don’t see how they can play down to the Browns level even if they are division rivals. I think what makes me think they won’t play down to the competition is they get a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thanksgiving. Peyton Hillis might be back, but that won’t help as much since he’s been a huge disappointment all year long and the Ravens are pretty good at stuffing the run lately…

Green Bay @ New York Giants (+7)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-7). There’s one way to stop Aaron Rodgers, and that is to knock him out of the game. Without Osi in the lineup, I don’t forsee any Rodgers concussions. The Packers also had some extra time to prepare for the Giants, which makes me think they’ll do what the Saints did to their defense. I was watching some highlights of Rodgers that Kurt Warner went through, and it looks like he channeled some inner Brett Favre with a little Peyton mixed in. Favre in that he was taking risks, and Peyton in that he always makes the right choice on where to throw the ball. If the Pack get out to a big lead, don’t be surprised to see the boo birds coming out in NY as their team gives up early in the third quarter.

By picks Green Bay (-7). I know this is essentially a must win for Eli Manning and the Giants.  And I know they’ll be playing at the New Meadowlands.  But I just can’t bet against Aaron Rodgers.  He’s the clear cut favorite for MVP this season, so much so that if you a bet a dollar on him to win the award right now in Vegas, and he does win it, you lose a dollar.  I know it’s standard protocol for a team flirting with perfection to not talk about the potential feat, but there’s something about the way the Pack carry themselves that makes me think they’re really going to go for it.  And aside from the Saints game on opening night, I must say, they haven’t been truly threatened to lose yet.  If Drew Brees ripped apart the Giants secondary, what do you think Rodgers might do?  Pack, big.

Detroit @ New Orleans (-9)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-9). It’s hard not to like what the Saints have been doing at home this year putting up 40+ ppg. No need to tell you about all their weapons, because that might take as long as this entire post to break down. One other thing you have to be excited about with the Saints is they are pretty much completely healthy. The Lions have fallen back into the team they’ve been for the past few decades. An undisciplined bunch that finds ways to lose. They kinda remind me of the Raiders last year, improving, but just not quite there yet in terms of maturity (not that the Raiders are mature this year). The Saints are there, and will roll them up in the Sunday night late game.

 

 


Doin Lines Week 12

Another week down in the NFL season. Shockingly, I’m still on a pretty good run with the picks. I thought by now I’d be falling back to .500, but fortunately that hasn’t been the case. By had too much to do this week to get his picks added in, so I’ll be flying solo on picks for week 12. I’ll pick a couple more games than I normally would including upsets in two of the Thanksgiving games maybe due to no bye weeks, but mostly due to By’s absence.

Last Week: Chappy (3-2-1), By (2-2)

Overall: Chappy (30-22-4), By (26-17)

Miami @ Dallas (-7)

Chappy picks Miami (+7). There’s nothing like stuffing your face, and watching the Cowboys lose. Unfortunately, they usually seem to win on Turkey day. I’m not entirely convinced that Miami will win this game, but ever since Reggie told everyone he and the entire team sucks, they’ve played very good. Who needs Andrew Luck anyways, Matt Moore is gelling with his receivers like Ace Ventura did with Snowflake, and actually looks like he might have a future in this league. The Cowboys are on a roll lately, but we all know that Romo can inspire a downward spiral in a hurry, and I feel like this is the beginning of the usual Cowboys collapse in the second half of the season even if it is still November where Romo is usually a winner.

Green Bay @ Detroit (+6.5)

Chappy picks Detroit (+6.5). Not sure how confident I feel in either of these Thanksgiving picks, but honestly I feel like it’s going to be a close game whether Detroit can pull out a victory or not. Maybe the Lions listened to my rant in the lines last week, because they started to run the ball again. I’ve been saying for awhile that since Best went out with a concussion, they had become way too predictable in their attack. I don’t really like the Detroit secondary or any secondary against Rodgers for that matter, but they at least have the guys to knock him down a few times, and don’t worry about a penalty if they do want to hit him just to hit him.

Houston @ Jacksonville (+3)

Chappy picks Houston (-3). Anybody out there think Matt Leinart can be effective in this offense? Probably not, since the last time he took over a winning team in AZ replacing Kurt Warner, he showed that he wasn’t the right guy for it. I do have lots of confidence in him being able to hand the ball off to Ben Tate and Arian Foster. Even I can do that, so he should be fine. Plus, he’ll get back Andre Johnson this week, and you barely have to hit the area code he’s in for him to haul in the pass. Since the Jags never score more than 20 points, I could see the Houston backfield beating them in points to cover this spread. The Texans can overcome Leinart’s sucktitude, and win by more than a field goal.

Carolina @ Indianapolis (+3)

Chappy picks Carolina (-3). I was really hesitant picking this game, because it seems like the past few times I’ve picked Carolina they’ve disappointed me. That being said, I’ve felt comfortable every time I’ve picked against the Colts this season, and Cam should be able to bounce back after his mistake prone game against a team that doesn’t let the opposing team make mistakes. A bye week wasn’t going to fix all the problems the Colts had all over the field, hell, an off-season might not even remedy their problems at this point… This might be the last time Indy has a chance to win this year, but sadly I only see 0-16 in their future.

Chicago @ Oakland (-4).

Chappy picks Oakland (-4). I’ll be in attendance for this game with about 20 friends! Back when the tickets were purchased for the game, I actually was very afraid the Bears would come in to Oakland and win. Now that SD helped us out by knocking out Cutler, I feel comfortable betting on this game again. It sounds like there’s an outside chance DMac might be playing in this one. Even if he’s not, Bettis 2.0, aka Michael Bush has shown he can get the job done by showing off his own version of Beat Mode, and could be one of the most underrated back in the league. As long as Palmer doesn’t turn it over, the Raiders should be able to beat Hanie and Forte. I am worried about the receiving core for the Raiders though with Ford and Moore in walking boots, and DHB coming off a concussion.

Denver @ San Diego (-6)

Chappy picks Denver (+6). Wait, what!?! Denver is a six point dog in this one?!? I know Vegas and God don’t exactly mix, but seriously Vegas, how can you smite Tim Tebow’s team like this!?! Phillip Rivers has shown us one thing this year, and that is he can turn it over with the best of them. He’s taking on one of the most underrated defenses in the league that causes tons of turnovers and three and outs, which should make it difficult even at home. It’s even highlighted more when their offensive line is in shambles. It’s funny how all my Chargers friends gave up on their season three weeks ago, just like Rivers did, zing!

NY Giants @ New Orleans (-7)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-7). For some reason the Saints are a team that’s flying under the radar kinda like the Texans were in the AFC. New Orleans is healthier than they’ve been all season on both sides of the ball, and have the type of offense that gives the Giants problems. I think I’m picking the Saints more because they’re coming off a bye week and at home where they always show up and play well. Awesome Drew Brees stat; at home he has completed a ridiculous 76% of his passes. The Giants will get Ahmad Bradshaw back, but I don’t see that being enough in the end to keep them close enough to cover. If my picks come out correct in the NFC East, the Eagles actually do still have a shot at winning that division.


Doin Lines Week 11

Chappy: Another week in the books, and By is on a tear right now. I didn’t have a winning week, but the Raiders did come away from this weekend holding sole possession of first place in the AFC West, so all in all it was a great week! This week we have Ryan Meehan joining us from such blogs as First Order Historians, East End Philadelphia, and the official Ryan Meehan website with our picks.

By:  Of course God had smite me for going against his favorite quarterback in Tim Tebow.  Never shall I listen to the devil over my shoulder again and doubt the “Chosen One”.  Like so many times before this season,  my 3 team parlay fell short because I couldn’t pull the trigger on my Niners at home, and elected to go with a now hopeless Chiefs team instead.  All good, the positive out of it all, I’m nearly 10 games over .500 on Doin Lines!  Now onto the lines!

Last Week: Chappy (2-3) By (3-1)

Overall: Chappy (27-20-3) By (24-15)

NY Jets @ Denver (+6.5)

Meehan picks Denver (+6.5). Denver must be good if they can win a game by 7 points having their quarterback only completing two passes.  And the Jets must be slightly out of focus if they just lost a home game by three touchdowns.  Given it was against New England, but there is something really wrong with the Jets.  Regardless, they are still better than the Broncos and it’s a must win for them, so I’m taking them to win.  Plus a loss would sink them to .500 and although it wouldn’t mean they were out of the playoff race just yet, it definitely would mean they’re standing on the slide ready to fall into the pool.  Jets 24, Broncos 18.

Chappy picks Denver (+6.5). I’m not sure why, but I’m actually starting to buy into the whole Tebow is a winner thing. Maybe it’s the way God has put By in his place with his parlay card! One thing I really like about Tebow is you know he’s not afraid to make a mistake or two, because he burshs it off one second later. Having said that, I think the Broncos will lose Thursday night, but not by a ton. I picked a close score hoping for an entertaining game at least. Can Rex Ryan figure out John Fox’s foot fetish of a ground game? Tough to say, but I think Von Miller is an absolute beast and will keep the Jets from being able to run all that much.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-7)

Chappy picks Cincinnati (+7).

The cardiac cats are back. They seem to have a close game every week, and have been on the right side of most of those games. Dalton isn’t playing like a rookie, and the firecrotch has revived a team from the dead with help from AJ Green. Hopefully Green is on the field this weekend as they’ll need all the weapons possible against a Ravens team that is hard to figure out. The Ravens have been a huge anomaly this year, and seem tough to figure out from week to week, and I seem to always pick wrong when betting on their games, but that isn’t stopping me this weekend. Take the seven points in what I see as a close game. The Bengals D is no joke, so I don’t see a ton of scoring.

Oakland @ Minnesota (+1)

Chappy picks Oakland (-1). Is it me or should this line be more in favor of Oakland? I guess it doesn’t matter since nobody wins by one anyway. For starters the Raiders will have 10 days rest for this game after playing on Thursday in SD. The Vikings will be on short rest because of MNF. Am I overconfident in Palmer at the helm of our offense? Probably, because he’s been making throws I haven’t seen a Raiders QB make in over a decade. He’s made throws that not even the great Rich Gannon would’ve been able to make. Questioning his arm strength might just mean you haven’t seen his last two games. Minnesota seems to have packed it in already. If the Raiders don’t win this, they don’t deserve the AFC West title.

By picks Oakland (-1).  I’ve been saying for quite some time that the Raiders are the best team in the AFC West, followed closely by the Chargers.  Last week, the point was proven as the Silver & Black went into Qualcomm Stadium, in what felt like a home game for them, and took first place.  Now that’s how you’re supposed to take something you want Juan Manuel Marquez.  Anyway, there is some doubt here, as no team from the west likes traveling east for an early game, but coming off an emotional win like they are, I can’t fathom a Raiders let down this week.  Carson Palmer is slowly getting it back, and getting familiar with his talented receivers, and whether DMac plays or not doesn’t matter.  Michael Bush has shown what he’s capable of doing as the lone feature back when given the opportunity.  It will be tough, and AP will have a big game, but the Raiders edge out the Vikings by 4 here.

Buffalo @ Miami (+2)
Meehan picks Miami (+2). Upset special.  Not only is Buffalo total bullshit, they don’t match up well against the style of football Miami’s been playing as of late.  In a twisted sort of way I’m not even sure this is really an upset at all.  The game is in Miami and that fact always fills some extra space. Dolphins 24, Bills 23.

Carolina @ Detroit (-7)

Chappy picks Carolina (+7). Is it just me or did everyone completely discount the loss of Javid Best to the Detroit offense? Since he went down on his umpteenth concussion, they haven’t been the same team we saw in the beginning of the season. I think they had Stafford throw something like 60 passes last week, the polar opposite of what any team wants to do on offense. Either way they have zero running game without Best, and it’s hard to win throwing as much as they have lately, unless you have an elite QB, not sure Stafford is that quite yet.

Meehan picks Detroit (-7). I think we can all agree that the Lions looked horrible against Chicago last week.  Not nearly as bad as Carolina, who appears to have given up after seeing “highlights” from that Titans game this past Sunday.  Much like the Jets have to have the Thursday night game, the Lions need this one bigtime because writers (like me) and fans are starting to think the beginning of this season was a fluke for them.  And it’s really hard to mention Detroit without bringing up how dirty of a team they are, so there’s your weekly standard comment on that. Lions 27, Carolina 11.

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay (-14)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-14). I simply don’t see anyone stopping Aaron Rodgers and the Pack especially a younger Bucs squad on the road in Lambeau. The Packers defense looked much better against the Vikings on Monday, not sure if that’s really showing improvement or if the Vikings suck that bad. Maybe they’ve figured out that part of their team again. If so, that’s scary for the rest of the league…

Tennessee @ Atlanta (-6)

Meehan picks Tennessee (+6). Since I can’t stand the Hasselbeck era Titans, you can almost bet the farm that they’ll win here.  The Falcons have had to deal with questions all week about Mike Smith’s decision to go for it on fourth down at their own 29 yard line.  And it’s a shame they have, because it’s distracting the fans from the real issue at hand here:  That no matter how many times I write it I still can’t believe that Matt Hasselbeck has a job as a starter in the NFL.  And since the Texans just lost their starting quarterback it’s possible the Titans may end up winning the AFC South now.  Unreal.  So I’m hoping the Falcons win because I want to see the Texans make the playoffs, but I’m picking the Titans to win because not only am I a fan of reverse psychology, but I love being right. Titans 27, Falcons 23.

San Diego @ Chicago (-3.5)

Chappy picks Chicago (-3.5). Talk about two teams heading in opposite directions. Even the quarterbacks are on opposite ends of the spectrum from what were used to. Rivers now looks like Cutler did at the beginning of the season, and Cutler looks like what Rivers looked like last season. One thing that stands out is the O-lines. Cutler’s O-line is healthy, Rivers O-line is not. A non-healthy O-line all adds up to turnovers, which the Chargers won’t be able to overcome. I see VJ getting loose for a couple scores after apologizing to his team this week for his lackluster effort against Oakland, but that won’t help when they’re down by two or three scores and Forte is running wild on a D that isn’t great against the run. SD has issues on special teams as well, so another Hester return in this one? I feel like it’s happening if they kick to him.

By picks San Diego (+3.5).  Whatever has gotten into Douche Bag Rivers this season, I’d like to order more of that please!  I can’t stand this guy’s face.  But in reality, San Diego is immensely talented, and this is about that time of the season in which they come marching back from the dead and make a real playoff push.  It won’t be easy, as they’ll have to get their season turned around on the road in chilly weather against a hot Bears team.  Perhaps Brian Urlacher wasn’t wrong about saying Jay Cutler is the best quarterback if given time, as Cutler has been great lately.  (I still don’t believe that statement).  Whatever the case, this game should be a shootout, and I predict a lot of points on the board, but ultimately the desperation of the Chargers gives them the added advantage.  Bolts over Bears by 3.

Dallas @ Washington (+7.5)

By picks Dallas (-7.5).  I normally don’t like the idea of going with a team that has to win a division game by more than a touchdown on the road, but I’m kind of buying Dallas for the next few games.  Tony Romo looks somewhat competent as of late, as shown by his dismantling of Buffalo at home last week, but more importantly Jason Garrett elected to go conservative with a big lead this time around, unlike in the Detroit choke job, where Romo handed the Cowboys a loss.  Maybe it’s because they have a real running game now with DeMarco Murray.  On the flip side, Washington has absolutely no identity.  Did they really go back to Rex Grossman?  Will they continue to rotate starting running backs each week?  Who knows, but they’re a mess, and they’re going to get steamrolled this week.

Meehan picks Dallas (-7.5). Washington is now on a six game losing streak, and here they run into the Cowboys who are one of the five hottest teams in all of football right now.  If you’re a fantasy guy and you own you some Dallas players, start every single one of them.  And I’m not sure how fantasy football even works but if there’s some bizarre way that you can start them twice at the same time go ahead and do that too.  This will be the game where Romo goes 31 for 35 and throws for 380, could even be a career game for him. Cowboys 40, Redskins 19.

Jacksonville @ Cleveland (PK)

Meehan picks Jacksonville. When I first contacted Chappy about doing these picks, he mentioned that he doesn’t pick all of the games every week.  I would assume that this was the type of game he was talking about.  Browns would be the most disappointing team in the league if anybody had actually expected anything out of them, which they didn’t so it’s not really an issue. Jags 19, Browns 6.
Seattle @ St. Louis (+1.5)
Meehan picks Seattle (-1.5). I talk a lot of shit about the Seahawks but you have to give them credit.  There’s almost absolutely no way for them to sneak into the playoffs and they laid the Ravens out after the largest moral victory that team has had since Super Bowl XXXV.  Of all the players that didn’t get moved before the trade deadline, Marshawn Lynch has to be more pissed than any of them.

Kansas City @ New England (-14.5)

By picks New England (-14.5).  Tom Brady looked magnificent against the hated Jets in New York last Sunday night.  A Jets defense that features the best corner in the league.  Problem is, Brady loves his tight ends, and Revis doesn’t match up against either of them.  Even if he did for a possession, who would cover Wes Welker?  I guess what I’m saying is, the Patriots have too many options to defend against on offense, and they have a quarterback who knows how to get the ball to the right match ups.  Only way New England doesn’t cover is, if they lose discipline and don’t approach this game with the business like attitude that they approach every game under Bill Belichick, or if whoever KC’s backup is, happens to be the next Tom Brady.  I believe both is highly unlikely.  Pats big.


Doin Lines Week 10

Chappy: Starting to get into a groove again with these picks, and so is By! Glad I picked mostly early games last week, because the late games were the upsets/close games. I can’t believe we’re over halfway through the season. Seems like it’s flying by. Pretty nervous for the Raiders-Chargers game tonight, and will not be wagering on it. Even with nobody on a bye week and more games to pick from there are a bunch of divisional match-ups this weekend and the lines are almost all in single digits, which could make it tough.

By:  Great week for me last week, in fact, due to a hectic work schedule, I wasn’t able to write up a quick blurb about the Bengals/Titans match up, in which I would have picked Cincy. Should have had a 4-0 weekend.   Also, due to my own confusion, I wasn’t able to confirm my picks with my homeboy who doubles as my bookie, which led to me losing out on a little money.  It was the one downer of the weekend, but no biggie.  The crazy thing is, I wasn’t entirely confident on any of last weeks games.  This week on the other hand, I feel I got locked down.  With that said, on to the lines ~

Last Week: Chap (4-1), By (3-0)

Overall: Chap (25-17-3) By (21-14)

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-1)

By picks New Orleans (+1).  Before I get started, I must say I like all of Chappy’s picks, all of which I am not getting involved in.  Which means you lucky readers will be getting our speculative opinion on 9 games this week!  Anyway, this NFC South match up is a tough one.  What’s not to like about Matty Ice and his career home record?  And being that the spread is only one point, the Saints would have to defeat the Falcons to cover.  But, if any team can do it, it’s the Saints.  Well them and of course Aaron Rodgers.  But the one thing I took away from New Orleans game last week, was a little more emphasis on balance.  Sean Payton elected to use his running game a little more than usual, even going balance within the balance, as three back’s got significant touches.  What that ultimately does, is open up the play action, which makes Drew Brees that more deadly.  I think the Saints get a big statement win on the road against their division rivals, and show who is top dog of the pack.

Houston @ Tampa Bay (+3)

Chappy picks Houston (-3). Is Houston the best team that barely anyone is talking about? The way I see it, they probably are the most complete team in the AFC at the moment. Their running game is second to none, and Schaub can huck it all over the field when he needs to, and they’ve done virtually all of it without Andre Johnson. Their defense has improved a ton in the secondary compared to last seasons last ranked in passing yards allowed awfulness. The Bucs have been up and down all season, and it’s always hard to figure out which team will show up between the competitive team and the play dead team. Will it be the team that beat the Saints? That team sure hasn’t showed up the last two weeks. Of all the lines this weekend, I like this one the best.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (+3)

By picks Pittsburgh (-3).  I know, I know, the Bengals are 6-2 and currently tied with the Ravens for the division lead.  There’s just one thing, they haven’t played the Ravens or the Steelers yet.  Well that’s all about to change this weekend, and let the light shine on the truth.  Now don’t get me wrong, the Bengals are legit, it’s just one of those situations in which they play in a division that’s a two horse race, and one of those horses just lost to the other horse at home last week on a last second play.  I think that horse is going to be mad.  Enough horse talk, quite simply put, the Steelers are going to lay down the lumber on the Bengals this week, no if’s, and’s or but’s about it.

Denver @ Kansas City (-3)

By picks Kansas City (-3).  I’m the biggest Tebow believer/supporter/follower there is, but there’s no way I can look at anyone with a straight face and say that Tim Tebow won that game last week in Oakland.  Sure he did some nice things, but the Raiders lost it themselves.  The AFC West is as tight a race as they come past the half way point of the season, and to me, the two best teams are still the Raiders and Chargers, but the Chiefs are right there in it, despite their 0-4 start.  Unfortunately for them, they thought they had a second bye last week, and never showed up to the game.  They can’t afford to get behind, so look for them to take care of business at home, and kill all the Tebow hype.  At least for one week.

Tennessee @ Carolina (-3)

Chappy picks Carolina (-3). Cam after a bye week had to learn a thing or two on what he’s been doing wrong thus far in the season, and that probably isn’t too much outside a bad decision on a throw or two. I’m not sure that this pick is so much that I think Carolina is a much better team, but more how I view the Titans these days. Hasselbeck has looked okay lately, but CJ300 hasn’t been getting it done, and leads the NFL’s 27th worst rushing attack. Looking through the games the Titans have won, they only beat crappy teams like Cleveland, Indy, and Denver, so I feel like Carolina should be able to cover the spread.

Baltimore @ Seattle (+6.5)

Chappy picks Baltimore (-6.5). I think Baltimore showed us all something last Sunday night, and that is Joe Flacco is actually clutch from time to time. That being said, I have a hard time seeing them needing a last second drive to win this game. Baltimore has been putting up big points during a three game win streak, and the Seahawks have only scored 28 points in their last three. It’s not going to get any easier for them as they face the 2nd ranked defense in the NFL. If this isn’t a blowout, color me purple.

New England @ New York Jets (-1.5)

Chappy picks NYJ (-1.5). The Jets seem to be plugging the holes in their rushing defense for the last three weeks against teams that can run the ball. I’m still not sure how confident I am in Sanchez, but ever since Shonn Greene stepped his game up he’s looked a lot better. New England has looked like crap for the last couple weeks, and I think the Jets D is much better than the Buffalo D that stifled Brady for a half. Is this the demise of NE? I sure hope so!

NY Giants @ San Francisco (-3.5)

By picks San Francisco (-3.5).  Far removed from the glory days are the 49ers, when finesse took to the air, and points were scored in abundance.  These Niners are about boring ball control, and smash mouth defense.  And you know what?  I love it just the same, because it’s working!  There’s a lot of buzz about how Alex Smith has improved as a quarterback, but in my opinion, he hasn’t at all.  Jim Harbaugh has simply placed him in situations in which even an idiot couldn’t fail.  Frank Gore in a walking boot scares me, but he said he should be good to go.  Our ability to score points hinges on him.  The one thing that’s scary in a good way is this Niner defense anchored by P-Willy.  They’re so good, they could tango with the AFC North.  And they’ll get their chance during Thanksgiving.  For now they’ll show Eli Manning what it’s like to feel pressure, and despite his impressive come back at New England last week, Manning was throwing against a poor secondary.  No miracle catches by a #85 will save him this week.  #NinerFaithful

Minnesota @ Green Bay (-13.5) 

Chappy picks Green Bay (-13.5). Picking five favorites has me a little worried. Not sure how confident I am in this Monday night pick either, but how can anyone pick against the Pack at this point. Rodgers seems to be playing better than Brady’s video game style season 08′ season, and is on pace to throw for over 50 TD’s. There is a big question about their defense as they seem to be getting gashed weekly by opposing offenses. The only way I see the Vikings covering is if they hold the ball for two-thirds of the game, and AP gets like 180 yards with three scores. I’m not that confident that will happen for AP, so I’m taking the pack in a blowout…

 


Doin Lines Week 9

Chappy: First off, the picture above was taken by my friend down in Huntington Beach of her friend and his kid showing up to their Halloween BBQ/party. Easily the best father-son costume combo I saw over the Halloween weekend or most disturbing, I’m not sure. Last weekend I narrowly avoided a three-week losing streak. With no NBA, it’s going to be nice to have Thursday night football returning in week 10, especially since it’s the Raiders-Chargers game in the inaugural Thursday game of the season. Just like the AFC West, the lines this weekend are hard to feel comfortable about, but here we go.

By:  After a stressful week of work, I finally took the time out to look at this week’s lines, afterwards, I couldn’t decide which was more stressful between the two.  Thankfully I’ve been making solid picks as of late, and I credit it to sticking with my gut instincts.  With that said, I’m still steaming from my decision to switch out my pick on my parlay card from Philly, to Diego last week.  Douche Bag Rivers strikes again.  On to the lines ~

Last Week: Chap (3-2), By (3-1)

Overall: Chap (21-16-3) By (18-14)

NYJ @ Buffalo (-2)

By picks the Jets (+2).  Buffalo sits atop one of the toughest divisions in football with a 5-2 record, they already defeated the division favorite Patriots once this season, but for the life of me, I still can’t look at them as a legitimate threat to win the AFC East.  Ryan Fitzpatrick and even more so Fred Jackson have had great seasons thus far, but neither I trust long-term.  That’s another discussion.  Truth is, the Jets are crazy underachievers, and similar to the Eagles, they just need to get pushed to the limit before they get things going.  Although I don’t put much faith in Mark Sanchez, I do believe the overall Jets team is far too talented to slip further behind in their division.  The turnaround starts this Sunday.  I think the Jets win by 10 or more.

Atlanta @ Indianapolis (+7)

Chappy picks Atlanta (-7). Is there any team that is winless that looks worse than Indy? Rhetorical question, and I think I’m going to make it a point to pick against them every week for the rest of the year. I’m starting to feel bad for Jeff Spicoli as everyone besides Pierre Garcon seems to have given up on him, which includes the defense. The Falcons are coming off a bye week, and probably saw how easy it was for the Saints to have their way with the Colts a few weeks ago, and should be able to copy some of that blueprint. I see this being decided by halftime, with Michael Turner holding the ball for more time than the Colts offense does for the entire game.

Cleveland @ Houston (-11)

Chappy picks Houston (-11). I don’t think it matters whether Andre Johnson plays in this game or not, Houston will win. The Browns have had milestone wins this season over, Miami, Seattle, and Indy. Who's even on this team?Wow, that’s pretty impressive Cleveland. This weekend they’ll go into the game without Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty, pretty much their offensive threats. The Texans have two RB’s that have nearly as many yards each as the Browns have accumulated total. I know it’s a QB’s world, but every team needs some kind of running game, unless you have a star QB, and the Browns don’t have that yet in McCoy. I see this ending like the game Houston played against Tennessee (41-7).

Denver @ Oakland (-8)

Chappy picks Oakland (-8). This might be my least confident pick, but all the other games on the slate don’t appeal to me, so I’ll talk about the Raiders. It’s a battle of two QB’s that are trying to prove themselves. Unfortunately only Carson has actually proved anything in the NFL, and he has the more well-rounded team. I think the main reason I’m feeling so confident about this game is because the Raiders are coming off a bye week and are healthier than they’ve been since week 1 in the secondary. They may be without McFadden, but I’d rather let his foot rest and wait to put him in against the Chargers next week when he’s 100% instead of 80% for two weeks. I guess that might not matter, because Tebow throws like Jamarcus hitting receivers feet or teammates on the sidelines with jackets on. I would like to see Tebow score a TD and jump in the black hole to get de-virginized.

San Francisco @ Washington (+3.5)

Chappy picks San Francisco (-3.5). I can’t believe I’ve seen the 49ers in the top five on power rankings lately. Not that it isn’t deserved, but who would’ve thought a coach would’ve made so much of a difference. The Redskins started the season well, but since week 4 they’ve been what I thought they’d be this year, crappy. The stout 49ers D should be able to stop a turnover prone offense, and may even outscore the Redskins offense. I’ll probably never say the 49ers offense looks explosive, but it has been a lot more competent than I expected this year. Gore should have a monster game against a defense that has given up a ton of yards on the ground to their last three opponents. I’m not even worried about the whole westcoast team flying to play an early game on the eastcoast…

Harbaugh equal plenty of attitude.By picks who else, SF (-3.5).  It’s crazy to think the 49ers are ranked #2 on ESPN’s power rankings as of Week 8, and I’m still not sure they’re deserving of it, but one thing’s for sure, they’re a helluva a team, and they got a helluva a coach.  Just think about how good Jim Harbaugh’s coaching has been this season.  Aside from questionable, conservative decisions he made in Week 2 against Dallas, he’s called perfect games this season.  This is virtually the same Niner team as last year.  Washington’s on the down, while the Niners keep rising.  With big road wins already against Cincinnati (in a hideous game), Philadelphia and Detroit, there’s no reason to believe San Francisco can’t take care of a Washington team which was recently shut out.  Niners by 7.

Green Bay @ San Diego (+5.5)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-5.5). The Phillip Rivers debacle in SD couldn’t make a Raiders fan more happy. Unfortunately the Chargers are still tied for first even with their best player sucking it up. If they are losing to teams like the Jets and Chiefs, then they pretty much don’t have any shot at beating the Packers. No need to write much here, except take GB with confidence!No need to double check, Rodgers is that good.

By picks San Diego.  Yeah right, By picks Green Bay (-5.5).  Green Bay is the #1 team according to ESPN’s power rankings and they totally deserve it.  The only undefeated team left standing, and although there’s still a lot of season left, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were heading towards a perfect one.  Aaron Rodgers is the MVP, really no if’s, and’s or but’s about it.  And unlike Douche Bag Rivers, Rodgers knows how to make use of the talent around him.  The game will be relatively close all day, until the 2011 MVP pulls the Pack away for good.

 


Doin Lines Week 8

Chappy: Uh oh two bad weeks in a row. One more and it’s a streak. This is not good, I don’t have any excuses since there’s no basketball to distract me during the week from making good picks. Who really saw Baltimore and Oakland crapping the bed as much as they did, not I.

By:  2-2 I’ll take it, but more importantly 3-0 on my parlay card which means I cashed in for the first time this year.  Hopefully the good times will keep rolling as I could use the spare cash these days.  Anyway, on to the lines!

Last Week: Chap (2-4) By (2-2)

Overall: Chap (18-14-3) By (15-13)

Minnesota @ Carolina (-3.5)

Chappy picks Carolina (-3.5). I find it amazing how much I’ve picked Carolina this year. At the onset of the season I didn’t see any way I’d actually pick them, but Cam has made me and everyone else a believer. I can’t wait to see Jarrod Allen try to bring down this beast of a QB, because he probably won’t be able to! Last week Minnesota actually made their game against Green Bay a good one letting AP off his leash finally. Maybe they’ll actually use him like he should be used (as the most complete back in football) Looks like they answered the big question on whether Ponder is a better fit to start than McNabb. Poor Donnovan’s fallen off faster than Culpepper did. Maybe he can join him in the CFL or Jamarcus on the retirement list.

Detroit (-2.5) @ Denver

Chappy picks Detroit (-2.5). I thought Tebow was impressive last weekend, but that was against the Dolphins, and only for six minutes. There’s noway Suh and Co will let Tebow dissect them, and send this team to three straight losses. Suh would rather knock the Jesus out of him in a dirty play than let Tebow run them up and down the field. Detroit is reeling after two straight losses, and while some have lost confidence in this team, I haven’t. I think the biggest blow to them was losing Javid Best, but since Stafford only had a small ankle injury and sounds like he’s going to play I have confidence in the Mega-Staff connection to beat a Denver that is all of a sudden over-rated. Detroit gets back to their winning ways convincingly.

By picks Detroit (-2.5).  And hell shall freeze over.  By is going against Timmy Tebow.  I can’t believe it myself, but despite orchestrating a remarkable comeback at Miami last week, there’s no way to disguise the fact that he did it against, well, Miami.  The Dolphins suck.  Detroit is not Miami.  Now the Lions haven’t exactly been looking like world beaters themselves, losing two straight at home despite a raucous crowd that forces a hundred false starts every week, but they’re not as bad as this losing streak suggests either.  Both the 49ers and Falcons are admirable opponents, and missing Jahvid Best hurt the Lions versus Atlanta, hopefully he’s back this week.  But really, this game hinges on the availability of Matthew Stafford, who is day-to-day and should be good to go, and that being the case, I think Detroit pulls through in a close game, winning by a touchdown.

New Orleans (-13) @ St. Louis

Chappy picks New Orleans (-13). It seems like New Orleans usually has a letdown after a huge scoring output like last weeks college football score, but the Rams haven’t shown as much life as the Jags this year, which is saying something. The Rams struggle at stopping the run as they rank dead last in stopping it, so I see a big game from Sproles, Ingram, and Thomas. Especially after they get up by a couple of scores. Atleast the Rams can look forward to week 9, when their schedule finally gets easier, and they play some teams that they might be able to work themselves into the win column.

Cincinnati (-3) @ Seattle

Chappy picks Cincinnati (-3). Did the Seahawks really play a 6-3 game last weekend against the Browns and lose?!? There weren’t weather issues, it was just straight ugly. Cincy had a bye week, and actually looks like a good team, and even with this game being in Seattle I would think this line would be little higher. I’m taking AJ Green to score more than the 9 total points that Seattle and Cleveland put up last weekend. Cedric Benson is serving his one game suspension, but then again that might be a good thing to get the old man out of the lineup, and put some guys in who can actually break away.

By picks Cincinnati (-3).  The Bengals have been one of the surprise teams this season, but they’ve done so flying under the radar.  Andy Dalton has proven to be a serviceable quarterback with solid upside, but to compose himself the way he has as a rookie is quite impressive.  He reminds me of a young Matt Ryan in terms of his calm state of being on the field.  Cincy’s offense doesn’t exactly jump off the page in terms of explosiveness, but with AJ Green running their routes, the Bengals are a threat to score on any given play.  But it’s their defense that’s been so impressive this season, yielding one of the best overall units.  Combine all the above, along with the fact that Seattle isn’t very good, and I predict a Cincy win by at least 7.

Dallas @ Philadelphia (-3.5).

Chappy picks Philadelphia (-3.5). There’s only one reason I’m taking Philly, and it’s because Andy Reid is 12-0 after his teams’ bye week. Yeah, it’s been a rocky year for Philly, but I feel like they are probably healthier and their defense has to be better than it was in the first six games getting some extra practice in. They added a lot of new pieces, and I think they’ll start to gel more this weekend. Nnamdi, Rodgers-Cromartie, and Samuel will be able to pick off Romo at least a couple of times. Plus, Vick with some extra rest is never a good thing for opposing defenses. 

By picks Philadelphia (-3.5).  I can’t stress enough how big of a win it was for Philly, when they beat the Redskins two weeks ago, as it reignited their confidence heading to their bye.  Now they play host to the vulnerable Dallas Cowboys, who in my opinion are one of the most overrated teams in the league, and are actually worse than what their record indicates.  Yes DeMarco Murray went off last week, and yes he set a new Cowboys rushing record, but he did so against the St. Louis Rams.  While still impressive, it takes away some of the pop, just like how Tebow’s comeback win wasn’t as great because of who he beat.  Ultimately it boils down to this, until Tony Romo can make the right decisions consistently, I will not trust the Cowboys, especially against a Eagles team that’s about to peak.  Eagles big.

San Diego @ Kansas City (+4)

By picks San Diego (-4).  This is tough.  Kansas City is coming off a big win against the best team in their division, at their home.  Plus whenever the Chargers and Chiefs meet up, it’s usually an all out battle.  But Matt Cassel barely scratched 150 yards passing, had no touchdowns and two interceptions last week.  If not for such a weird set of circumstances surrounding the Chiefs/Raiders game last week, Matt Cassel would have probably cost Kansas the game.  That won’t fly against San Diego, even if they’re at home.  Plus, you know the Chargers want to make amends for not only blowing the game at New York, but choking on the two-minute drill to end it.  Chargers by 10.


Doin Lines Week 7

Chappy: It took six weeks, but I finally had a crappy one. Hopefully this dream start to the season with my picks isn’t just a footnote on the way to an average year. It was nice to have my one win be the Raiders game. I’ll take a 1-3-1 every week if the Raiders are the sole win!

By:  Feels good to be back on the winning side after going 3-1 last week.  I feel the last two or three weeks have had the toughest lines I can remember.  After finally seeing this week’s lines, I can breathe a sigh of relief.  These seem doable.  With that said, I only pick the locks baby … on to the lines ~

Last week: By (3-1) Chap (1-3-1)

Overall: By (13-11) Chap (16-10-3)

Chicago vs. Tampa Bay (+1)

Chappy picks Tampa Bay (+1). It’s tough to feel good about picking a game in London, especially with two erractic teams that seem hard to figure out where exactly they are through six weeks of the season. The Tampa win over New Orleans impressed me to the point that I’m going to pick them. Even without Blount in the lineup they amassed 117 yards rushing. If Freeman can stay patient and dink and dunk his way down the field without making any interceptions this is a lock. Well, unless they for some strange reason decide to kick to Hester.

Washington  @ Carolina (-2.5)

By picks Camolina (-2.5).  Carolina ran into a determined Atlanta team last week, but still kept it close late until the Falcons pulled away by 14.  Amazingly, that’s exactly how much I said the Dirty Birds would win by.  The return of Bystradamus?  Before I get carried away, let’s look at this week’s match up for the Panthers, and why this is a lock for them to cover.  First and foremost, Cam Newton.  Second, Mike Shanahan, or in the fantasy world, Lucifer, has been carouseling running backs in the lineup all season for the Skins.  It’s a disaster back there.  Now, albeit inevitably, it’s the quarterbacks’ turn.  John Beck won’t throw as many picks as Rex “Gross, Man” but he’ll win the same amount of games for you this season.  Which is close to nothing moving forward.  I know Washington got off to a good start, but unlike the Bills, we knew it would fall apart for them.  Camolina at home against a team in full disarray, I got to like my chances with the Panthers.

Chappy picks Carolina (-2.5).  I expected more from Carolina last weekend against the Falcons, but I think the Falcons were out to prove that they are still contenders, so Cam alone wouldn’t be enough stop them. This weekend he takes on a very solid Washington defense, the only problem for Washington is they’re starting John Beck. Not that I liked Grossman or anything, but he seemed like a better option to me even with his ugly 4 int performance. At the beginning of the year I didn’t think I’d be picking Carolina in any games, but they truly are a different team than last year…

Denver @ Miami (-1)

Chappy picks Miami (-1). This game wouldn’t be hyped at all if it wasn’t Tebow’s first start of the season and his return to Florida, but both those things are happening so it’s all of a sudden a big game. I actually thought the Dolphins looked good for a half against the Jets, and you know Marshall is going to get fired up to play his old team trying to go into monster mode as often as possible. If there’s one weakness in Denver’s defense, it’s their ability to stop the run. Consequently that’s one of the only things Miami does well. Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas should have big games on their way to a win. Tebow might do well, but I don’t see them winning.

By picks Tebow (+1).  I’m waiting for Brandon Marshall to say he’s trying to get thrown out of this game during warm ups in attempt to show how much passion he has playing for a winless team.  If that happens, Denver’s the sexy pick all the way.  Wait, Timmy Tebow’s starting!?!?  Then Denver is already the sexy pick!  All jokes aside, I’ve been a huge Tebow fan for two reasons:  One, he’s a great leader, and his actions speak louder than his words.  Two, he’s the second sports legend to come out of the Philippines!  (Yeah, I claim him as Filipino).  But, when it’s all said and done, Tebow knows how to win.  Screw the mechanics, screw the intangibles, this guy gets the job done.  Check his track record.  Denver can afford him this opportunity, and he will stand and deliver.  At least this week.  Against a winless team.

Atlanta @ Detroit (-4)

By picks Detroit (-4).  I think I’m the only one who thinks the Jim Harbaugh/Jim Schwartz fiasco was entirely blown out of proportion.  And I’m probably the only San Francisco fan that thinks Harbaugh gave a douche of a handshake.  Yeah Schwartz acted like a little sissy brat, but there’s a lot of pride involved in football, and you don’t let another man belittle you like that.  With all that said, Harbaugh in the 3rd.  Now back to Detroit.  They must be pissed, not only to get their first loss last week, but in the matter in which they received it.  I’m weary of picking them here with the status of Jahvid Best still in the air, but I think the spread offense, as well as Stafford to Megatron is still enough to propel the Lions at home versus the Falcons.  It’s hard to make a read on this Atlanta team this season, the verdict is still out on them.  But I don’t trust them on the road this season one bit.  Detroit by 6.

Pittsburgh @ Arizona (+4)

Chappy picks Pittsburgh (-4). The Steelers are getting a little old, but their not old to the point where they’ll lose to the Cardinals. Missing Jerome Harrison due to a tumor might hurt their defense a little, but then again you don’t need a lot to beat this team. The Steelers either blow a team out or play down to their competition. I feel like they’ll blow out AZ the same way they did in the Super Bowl two years back. Mike Wallace is a little dinged up, but with Pittsburgh finally getting the running game going, it probably doesn’t matter.

Kansas City @ Oakland (-4.5)

By picks Oakland (-4.5).  Oakland’s a team on the rise, and their about to get better with the addition of Carson Palmer.  Can you imagine Palmer clicking with all his weapons with the speed and talent this Raiders offense has?  I really think San Diego’s reign over the AFC West is in jeopardy, like right now.  Hue Jackson has proven why the Raiders looked no further than within when hiring a replacement for Tom Cable.  His play calling has been spot on this season, and his attitude is refreshing.  It’s nice to see both Bay Area teams succeeding this year.  As far as this week’s match up, what’s not to like with the Silver & Black?  They’re home, they’re hot, they’ve got a real threat at quarterback, an excellent coach, game breakers on offense and they’re playing the Chiefs.  To me, -5 sounds like a trap game line, but I’m confident Oakland won’t disappoint.

Chappy picks Oakland (-4.5). I think I’m already a little tired of hearing about whether Palmer should or shouldn’t start. Who gives us a better chance to win? I’d say Carson after one week of practice over Boller playing backup for the season. We always waste our timeouts anyways, so if he isn’t sure on a play use one! And really how hard is it going to be for him to turn around and hand off the ball to McFadden and Bush? Seems like an easy game plan to me without putting a ton of pressure on him. On the other side, the Chiefs have rattled off two straight wins, but they were against the Colts and Vikings, who we all know are about as bad as it gets in opponents. I’m somewhat worried about this Chiefs squad, mainly because they’re coming off the bye week. Then again the Raiders will probably give them a lot of new looks with their new QB at the helm.

Baltimore @ Jacksonville (+8)

Chappy picks Baltimore (-8). I think I’d still pick Baltimore if the spread was 14. Baltimore is possibly the team to beat in the AFC, and have put up 33 per game during their 3 game win streak. Conversely Jacksonville has only scored 11 points per game during their five game losing streak. This is probably THE easiest pick of the week. Ride with it to some money!!


Doin Lines Week 6

Chappy: The dream season continues as I had another good weekend of picks. As I said in my post Wednesday, I didn’t get to see much football over the weekend, but did hear and read plenty of analysis to know what happened to help me with this weeks picks. Let the good times keep on rolling!

By:  Got my ass kicked last week.  Time to exact some revenge!  To the lines ~

Last week: Chappy (3-1-1) By (1-3)

Overall: Chappy (15-7-2 By (10-10) 

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh (-12)

Chappy picks Pittsburgh (-12). Pittsburgh has been an iffy pick on some weeks this year, but aside from the game against the Colts, they’ve beat teams they are supposed to convincingly. I’m not sure I believe in Blaine Gabbert much at all, especially with the limited amount of weapons he has outside of MJD. The Steelers will knock him over a lot forcing him into some turnovers. I read somewhere Mendenhall is supposed to be back, so that should only help the blowout cause.

Philadelphia @ Washington (+1)

By picks Philadelphia (-1).  I thought last week would be when the Eagles finally showed what their capable of, and to a certain extent they did, nearly coming back against the Bills on the road.  Unfortunately it’s been like Groundhog’s Day for Philly, as they seem to repeat the same mistakes over and over again.  I know Mike Vick has shed the “Dream Team” label, but they do share resemblance to another “Dream Team” in a way, the Miami Heat, and not all was smooth sailing for that team.  But, the Heat did eventually get it right.  I assume the Eagles will get it going now, as they’ve wasted their life lines already.  Throwing records aside, if the Eagles can’t beat this suspect Redskins team this week, they can kiss the playoffs goodbye.  I don’t see Philly missing the playoffs, quite yet.

Carolina @ Atlanta (-4)

Chappy picks Carolina (+4). Cam returns to his homeland of Atlanta. If there’s one thing I’ve taken from this Panthers team is that they don’t get blown out. The one time they lost by more than three points it was by seven to the defending Super Bowl champs. The Falcons are saying all the right things, but don’t seem to be executing them well enough to get them put into the upper echelon of teams that they were in last season. My question for this team is has their window already closed? Seems like they’re pretty old at some of the skill positions like Turner, Gonzalez, Babineaux, and Abraham all over 30. I still think Atlanta wins, but Cam and the Panthers hang tough like they have every week this year.

By picks Atlanta (-4).  I’ve been a huge supporter of Cam Newton and Carolina when making my picks this season, and they haven’t let me down yet.  But, I’ve been an even bigger supporter of Matty Ice over the past few seasons, especially at home.  Obviously, the Falcons have not looked good coming out of the gates this season, considering they held the best record in the NFC last year, but this is still the same dynamic team as a season ago.  A team like this is due for a breakout game, a game that will remind the census that they are still a legitimate championship contender, and this will be that game.  Cam has been remarkable thus far, and is running away with the ROY votes, perhaps even swaying some MVP ones, but there’s only so much one guy can do to keep his team close in every game.  I sense he slows down a little this week, hits a small speed bump on the road against a division rival.  Atlanta wins this game by 14.

Buffalo @ New York Giants (-3)

Chappy picks Buffalo (+3). I think everyone is wondering when this Buffalo team will fall back to earth. I feel like they will eventually, but for the time being they believe in themselves, which is nearly always the most important part of a team. The Bills always seem to come through in the clutch, and well, the Giants seem to find ways to fall apart in the clutch over the past year and a half. The Giants haven’t really played anyone I deem a good team this year, and the Bills have plenty of quality wins, so it’s an easy choice to take the points even for the road team.

Cleveland @ Oakland (-6.5)

Chappy picks Oakland (-6.5). Obviously I’ve been ecstatic about how well my Raiders have been playing, and the schedule is getting a bit easier over the next few games than it was to start the season. Not to say Cleveland can’t beat Oakland, but the line says what we should expect, a win. I am slightly concerned the players will be a little too pumped up costing us some stupid penalties, which could help the Browns stay close. One of the most encouraging things this season is the Raiders seem to have found a way to not have a let down that effects their next game. Where are all those haters that thought DHB would never be as good a receiver as Crabtree on draft day in 09? Crickets out there, that’s what I thought! I don’t feel entirely comfortable picking them to win by a touchdown, but with all the issues in Cleveland with Peyton Hillis, I don’t see how that wouldn’t be a big distraction. Colt McCoy has been impressive imo, but he’s going to have a tough time throwing over the Oakland D-line that is the best he’s faced this year. Cleveland gets swallowed by the Black Hole.

By picks Oakland (-6.5).  Shout out to Chappy & Matt, I’m really feeling this Raider team.  Jason Campbell is playing a well controlled, well-disciplined game this season, and he’s utilizing the talent he has on the edges.  Oakland’s receivers are a threat to break on every single play.  Toss in the league’s best running back in DMac, and the Raiders have an exciting brand of offensive football this year.  But you can’t overlook the Raiders D.  Along with my Niners and the Baltimore Ravens, the Raiders have one of the most physical and intimidating defensive units in all of football, add to that Sea Bass kicking 50 + yarders with a hot dog in his hand, and I’d say the Silver & Black have a good thing going for them all around.  Plus Cleveland’s coming in already terrible, and with a disgruntled star in Peyton Hillis.  That doesn’t add up well for the Browns.  Oh and by the way, the “Madden Curse” still lives.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (+4.5)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-4.5). I’ve picked New Orleans to cover the past four weeks, and they’ve come through for me in all but one. Seeing how the 49ers and Alex Smith completely dismantled the Bucs defense last week, it has to have Drew Brees salivating for this match up. Sure the Bucs will change a couple things, but how much can you really change in a cover-2 scheme in one week? Not enough to stop Drew Brees from putting up 40+ points. Do I think the Bucs can keep up on the scoreboard? Maybe if they have a huge game from Earnest Graham controlling the clock, but I don’t really see that happening, so I feel pretty confident in picking the Saints.

By picks New Orleans (-4.5).  I feel that lost in this season thus far, is how good the Saints are.  They lost a nail biter on the road in the season opener against the defending champs, and best team in football, Green Bay Packers.  Since then, they’ve reeled off four straight wins and are pulling away from the division.  Drew Brees might be the MVP if Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady didn’t exist, he’s turning Jimmy Graham into a house hold name!  Anyway, long story short, the Saints are too explosive offensively, and the Bucs seem anemic on their end.  No LaGarrette Blount and -4.5 seems like a bargain here.  Saints big.


Doin Lines Week 5

Chappy: I’m not sure what exactly is going on through the first four weeks, but I like it, especially since it’s all about offensive battles opposed to defensive battles. Is it bad the league doesn’t care about defensive rules? Who knows, but I’m glad to be a collector rather than a giver from the bookie on Mondays. I can’t remember a start to the gambling season like the one I’ve been on since I was a waiter in college. Back then I had no idea I was being sucked in by an unusual lucky streak to start off my football betting career. Just after having said all that, this week’s lines are tough with only three lines over 6 points. That bodes well for the watchability of all the match ups this weekend.

By:  Is that Chappy on fire with a winning ratio of two to one, and me two games above .500?  Yeah, that’s us.  I guess we kind of know a little bit what we’re talking about here when it comes to these lines, huh?  I’m sure it’s mostly luck, but still, I’ll take it.  Unfortunately when I looked at my parlay card this week, I lost all confidence, as the lines are killer.  I can honestly say I don’t stand firm behind any of my picks this week.  I’m merely crossing my fingers and hoping for the best.  On to the lines ~

Last Week: Chappy (4-1) By (3-1)

Overall: Chappy (12-6-1) By (9-7) 

New Orleans @ Carolina (+6.5)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-6.5). Last weekend at the bar, I was fixated on the TV showing Cam taking on the Bears. He’s already one of those athletes that make it hard to take your eye off of. He had a pretty good game, and could’ve won it if it weren’t for a Devin Hester return. Anyways, as much as I like Cam, he won’t beat New Orleans. The Saints defense isn’t highly thought of after that first game against the unstoppable Packers, but since that game they’ve been pretty solid. I feel like the Saints will be able to find a way to stop Steve Smith, because who else does Cam throw to? Drew Brees teaches Cam a trick or two while beating them by more than a TD.

By picks Carolina (+7).  Carolina sports a 1-3 record, which is not very good, but if you delve deeper you will find they’re better than what their current record indicates.  They haven’t lost a game by more than a touchdown, and they’ve had opportunities to win late in each contest they’ve played this season.  They’re currently 1-1 at home, but the loss came at the hands of Green Bay, no harm in that.  While I still think Drew Brees and company pull out the win, I’m convinced that a crowd all abuzz about Cam Newton pushes the Panthers to take the Saints to the limit.  To me, this game has game winning field goal written all over it, which is beneficial to Carolina either way.

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-3)

By picks Indianapolis (-3).  This is a disgusting game to tackle, but I’m feeling dirty.  I know the Chiefs finally got off the schneid last week at home versus Minnesota, but it was against Minnesota.  That’s got to be the most shameful way of getting your first win.  By beating Minnesota.  In fact, the only more shameful way of getting your first win is by beating the Chiefs.  After they beat Minnesota.  And that’s exactly what’s going to happen Sunday for the Colts.  Listen, Curtis Painter didn’t show me a lot last Monday, but he did show me something, he showed he can keep Tampa’s defense honest with some decent throws.  The Colts play makers are still there, and perhaps Pierre Garcon’s outburst will light a fire to them and give them some belief that they can still be relevant on the field without Manning.  Ultimately, it just comes down to me thinking the Colts have got to get their win in now, or else the talks of a 0-16 season start stirring.  Oh, and my apologies to the Chiefs, Colts and Vikings fans out there.  What I said about them is mean.

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville (-2.5)

Chappy picks Cincinnati (+2.5). When I first read this line, I thought it was backwards and was still thinking of picking Cincy. Andy Dalton feels like he’s moving in the right direction with AJ Green already being his go to receiver, while Blaine Gabbert can’t seem to get any solid footing in his limited time in the NFL. Gabbert has played better than Luke McCown, but is that really saying anything positive? The Bengals just beat the up and coming Bills last weekend, and have been close in every game, so there’s no reason to not take the points here. They kinda remind me of the cardiac cats back when Carson was leading the team. Maybe they rebuilt faster than we thought!

By picks Jacksonville (-2.5). I read what Chappy wrote about this match up, and I couldn’t agree more.  Except in the end result.  While the Bengals are the better team and have a nice piece in place in Andy Dalton, and an absolutely unstoppable force in the making with AJ Green, they’re still a relatively young and inexperienced team on offense, which means they don’t know how to pull away from teams they’re supposed to beat.  Cincinnati’s record shows they’ve only been in close games this season, and a close game means Jacksonville will utilize the run more.  So we’ll probably see more Pocket Hercules from the Jags this week as oppose to last.  Despite Blaine Gabbert’s mediocre start, his upside is far greater than that of Andy Dalton, and I have a gut feeling he flashes a glimpse of what he’s capable of this week.  My prediction, home field wins out, and MJD’s punishes the Bengals for a late costly mistake.  Jags by 4.

 

New York Jets @ New England (-9)

Chappy picks New England (-9). It’s been crazy how lifeless the Jets have been so far this season. I thought they’d be playing a lot tougher, but maybe it’s just time to blow them up and start over. The last time the Jets went to New England they beat them in the playoffs. Don’t think New England doesn’t remember that, and you never want a pissed off Pats team coming your way. The trip before that one to Foxboro was in the regular season and ended in a 45-3 win for the Pats. I see this game being more like that one than the playoff game. Then again, with Nick Mangold back being able to keep Sanchez off his backside, and if Jerod May can’t play they could put up some serious keep up points. I’m still upset the Raiders didn’t take more advantage of Mayo being out.

Philadelphia @ Buffalo (+3)

By picks Philadelphia (-3).  I have too much personal shit invested into this match up.  There, that’s the disclaimer.  If I influence your picks at all, perhaps it’s best you stay away from this one.  First off, Buffalo was up 17-3 into the third quarter versus the Bengals last week.  With the other picks on my parlay card winning handedly already, it seemed like foregone conclusion I would be getting paid out.  Long story short, the Bills blew it.  Now I’m pissed at them.  Don’t come between me and my money Buffalo.  Don’t do it.  Meanwhile, the Eagles decided to demonstrate the fundamentals of a melt down against my 49ers, allowing us to somehow win a game we were dominated in.  Thank you Philly, I now like you.  Unfortunately for the Eagles, the Cowboys decided to upstage them in the choke department, proving once again, division rivals will go to great lengths to out do each other.  In all seriousness, this week the Eagles will prove they are as good as advertised, while the Bills get exposed for the pretenders they really are.  (Assholes).

TEBOW, TEBOW, TEBOW!!

San Diego @ Denver (+4)

Chappy picks San Diego (-4). I’m actually hoping I’m wrong with this pick. I’d lose a bet to see the Chargers lose, but in realityville, I don’t see it happening. SD hasn’t really played that well, but they’ve slept walked through an easy early schedule to a 3-1 record. I hope there’s no Tebow chants, because that means the Broncos are losing. If there are some Tebow chants, at least I’ll get a laugh out of it and a winning bet. Rivers is having an off year for some reason, but there’s no place like Denver to get yourself going. I’m sure they’ll take a thing or two out of Green Bay’s playbook after showing them how to put up 49 on them last weekend.

Chicago @ Detroit (-5.5)

Chappy picks Detroit (-5.5). I can’t jump off the bandwagon of a team that’s 3-1 ATS for me. I think if this was in Chicago, I’d hesitate on this pick a lot more, but in the Lions only home game so far this year they put up 43 on the Chiefs. I think the home crowd helps younger teams more than it would an older team, which is why I picking them in this game. Plus, Detroit’s front four against the Bears O-line = Cutler on his back all game long. Chicago plays their cover-2 all game long, so I see Calvin catching a short pass, and breaking free to watch himself score a TD on the Ford Field Megatron.


Doin Lines Week 4

Chappy: So far so good on the betting season. As we and Vegas learn more about the teams the lines slowly start to get tougher! I found it pretty amazing Thursday that there was less than 10% NFL talk, and EVERYONE was talking about baseball. It might be the first time in years I can remember this happening on a national scale. Maybe this will make the MLB playoffs get a little more attention. Either way I’m excited about week 4 in the NFL to see if my Raiders are for real or not. The Jets were a test, but the Patriots are the yard stick.

By:  Back to .500, woot woot!  To the lines!

Last week: Chappy (3-2) By (3-1)

Overall: Chappy (8-5-1) By (6-6)

Detroit @ Dallas (-1.5)

Chappy picks Detroit (+1.5). It seems like there’s not much to not dislike about the Lions undefeated start whether you care about them or not. Like many others I’ve been on their bandwagon so far this season picking them to win each week. Unfortunately they didn’t cover the spread in their last battle in Minnesota. Since they’re facing the Cowboys, the line is always swayed a little more their way because Texans love gambling, and are always flooding Vegas with their bets, so take the points. Also, I think Suh is going to put a pounding on Romo one way or another. They won’t even need to sell out as much on the blitz as the Redskins did because they have a great front seven. On the flip side, I have a hard time seeing the Lions not putting up a bunch of points on an overrated Dallas D.

By picks Detroit (+1).  Detroit showed me a lot last week despite not covering.  The thing that stood out most was the way they showcased their fire power in the second half to overcome a three touchdown deficit on the road to a division rival.  3-0 doesn’t guarantee you a thing in the NFL, especially when you’re a young team,  so the Lions should still be motivated to prove themselves on a week to week basis, with this week arguably being their toughest challenge yet.  I’d most likely stay away from this game had Dallas been completely healthy, but being that Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are still questionable, and Tony Romo still has a fractured rib, I’m going with the Lions in a competitive game, 28-24.  One thing’s for sure, Romo won’t be sleeping easy anytime soon as he preps for the Detroit front line.

New Orleans @ Jacksonville (+7)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-7). Do I think the Jags can seriously put up 40 points even on a Saints defense that bleeds points? Not really when they’ve scored 13 points total in their last two games. They remind me of the Raiders in the Jamarcus era. This is the easiest pick of the week in my mind. With the downward spiral that has gone down in Jacksonville, I have no idea how Del Rio still has his job. The Saints will have this spread covered by the end of the first quarter, which might make this the least watchable game on the Sunday slate.

Washington @ St. Louis (+3)

By picks Washington (-3).  Similar to why I picked Baltimore to cover against St. Louis last week, Washington still has the bitter taste of defeat in their mouths, to a division rival nonetheless, in a game which they let slip away in my opinion, so look for them to take out their frustrations on the lowly Rams.  The Redskins have looked surprisingly efficient on offense with a tamed Rex Grossman leading the charge, how long will that last is anyone’s guess, but the St. Louis secondary is always ripe for the picking, so don’t look for Grossman to revert back to his turnover prone days just yet.  For the Rams, Steven Jackson should be healthier enough to get more reps, but aside from that, I don’t see much a doing for them.  Redskins by 10.

Atlanta @ Seattle (+4.5).

Chappy picks Atlanta (-4.5). I can’t really figure out if the Falcons are underrated or overrated, but there’s one thing I do know, and that is Seattle sucks. Last year these two met in Seattle and it went 38-10 in favor of the Falcons. I see the same kind of score happening in this game as well with Matt Ryan finally having a good game from start to finish. I think Seattle is already battling Jacksonville for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. You can count on me to parlay NO and Atlanta this weekend.

Tennessee @ Cleveland (+1)

By picks Tennessee (-1).  I’m not sold on the whole “Chris Johnson’s season is a bust” talk quite yet, so much so that I traded Michael Turner for him in my main fantasy league.  I know last week against Denver was supposed to be his break out week and it didn’t happen, but he now faces the 29th worst rushing defense in the league in Cleveland.  Mark my words, CJ will have a huge game.  The loss of Kenny Britt on the season really hampers the Titans, who because of the situation down in Indy, have now found themselves in the running for the South crown, but even with that, don’t sleep on Tennessee.  Like I’ve said in the recent past, it’s funny how quickly people forgot how good of a quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is, he’s making me look good as of late.  I know Cleveland is 2-1, but I find it difficult to read anything into their record when their wins came at the expense of Indy and Miami, two woeful teams.  Titans by 4.

Buffalo @ Cincinnati (+4)

By picks Buffalo (-4).  No one, circles the wagons, quite like the Buffalo Bills.  This game can go one of two ways.  The Bills realize in defeating the NFL’s hottest quarterback (outside of Aaron Rodgers maybe) after he started the game scorching hot, and do it in come from behind fashion on a game winning field goal as time expired, that maybe they really are that good.  Or they can go into Cincinnati and give us the biggest let down of the season.  I’m hoping it’s not the latter.  Two things that stand out in this match up, Andy Dalton is not Tom Brady, and he will not torch Buffalo’s secondary the way Brady did in the first half last week, and the Bills offense is not San Francisco’s offense, the Bengals d will have their hands full all day.  This game smells like a trap to me, but I’m going to go with Buffalo anyway in a blow out.

Denver @ Green Bay (-12.5)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-12.5). Denver hasn’t been blownout in a game, but I think they might be due for one this week when they take on Green Bay and their 9 game win streak on the road. Denver almost won in the opener against Oakland because the Raiders had 15 penalties. They beat Cincy at home, but what does that say? We are slightly better than the team that a lot of people thought was the worst in football coming into the year, yipee. They followed that up with a loss to Tennessee on the road by 3. Yup, I’d say it’s safe to think they’ll get blown out unless the Packers take them too lightly.

NY Jets @ Baltimore (-3.5).

Chappy picks Baltimore (-3.5). This one was a little tough for me, but after watching my Raiders trample the Jets for over 200 yards on the ground, I think Baltimore will be able to do the same with Ray Rice. It’s tough to pick Baltimore after their week 2 stinker out of nowhere, but I’m ready to take them again. Plus, Joe Flacco might be the best QB in the NFL through three weeks that nobody is talking about. I actually laughed when I saw someone kept him in a keeper league, but I guess he’s been doing the laughing lately.


Doin Lines Week 3

Chappy: Last week wasn’t bad, but not that great either. If it weren’t for a few scores late in games to keep them closer I could’ve gone undefeated this weekend. Unfortunately the Vegas betting gods weren’t on my side, and I ended the week at 2-3. It seems like the oddsmakers are making it tougher on the betting crowd, because this week is tougher than the first two combined in my opinion.

By:  I told Chappy prior to last week’s picks that the lines were one of the toughest I’ve ever seen.  The result, brutal.  My first donut ever.  More so than the tough picks, I feel that all the bragging I did after going 3-1 during opening week came back to bite me.  If karma’s a b**ch, make sure that b**ch is beautiful.  Mine was hideous.  To the lines ~

Note:  My picks are off parlay cards, so the spread might be different.

Overall [Chappy (5-3-1) By (3-5)]

Houston @ New Orleans (-4)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-4). The Saints offense is rolling. They put up 30 on the Bears who are supposed to be underrated, then overrated, then back to underrated again. Looking up and down the Saints roster, it seems like Sproles might have been their best signing this offseason! The one thing I’m positive on, is that the Texans defense isn’t nearly as good as the Bears or Packers D. Yes the Texans rebuilt their secondary, but this will be the first time they truly have their hands full with a great QB. I see a lot of scoring in this one, but the Saints will pull away like they usually do in front of their home crowd.

Miami @ Cleveland (-2.5)

By picks Miami (+2.5)  I like what the Browns got going with Colt McCoy, he’s shown me a lot these first two weeks of the 2011 season.  But he did play against the Bengals and Colts, two teams who will not be contending for a playoff spot, so I can’t read too much into that.  Across the way, Chad Henne has done some nice things against two division favorites, and so despite a bagel in the win column, I’m still slightly more impressed with Henne.  There’s a big question mark in the Dolphins back field, but overall Miami has more weapons than Cleveland, and win by at least six points.  Plus how can you root against a guy who wears shades every single minute of the day like Tony Sparano?

Detroit (-3.5) @ Minnesota

Chappy picks Detroit (-3.5). Detroit has given me two straight ATS wins in two weeks. I can’t remember the last any time I’ve been able to say that. They pulled out an impressive road win over the Bucs in week 1, which gives me the confidence to pick them to beat a division foe this week on the road. McNabb looked slightly better last weekend, but we still know the one thing the Lions really need to worry about, AP. If they bottle up AP, there’s noway the Vikings win. Minnesota also has a weak secondary, so expect a big day from Stafford and Megatron.

By picks Detroit (-6)  In my main fantasy league, I told my friends I wouldn’t draft a quarterback in the first five rounds because the position was deep this year.  I took Matthew Stafford in the sixth and told them all I just got a second round pick with the selection.  They all laughed, mainly because that’s what we do when anyone of us makes any pick, but still, who’s laughing now.  Offensively, Detroit is a handful for any team let alone the lowly Vikings.  Megatron, Jahvid Best and even the underrated Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler present several match up problems in which the Vikes won’t have answers for.  But it’s Ndamukong Suh and the defensive line that automatically covers the spread.  McNabb has clearly devolved into a mediocre quarterback and AP can’t carry this team alone.  This game might be close early, but slowly but surely, the Lions impose their will on Minnesota.

Jacksonville @ Carolina (-3.5)

Chappy picks Carolina (-3.5). I don’t think Cam is the greatest thing since sliced bread like many seem to think, but I do believe in him more than the newly named QB of the Jaguars, Blaine Gabbert. He’s also better than I think nearly everyone expected. Hopefully he learned a few things against the defending champs last weekend. My rule of picking against rookies starting their first game applies to this one. Will Cam throw for 400 yards again? I’d say yes because this Jaguars secondary doesn’t exactly scare teams from throwing against them. If Carolina doesn’t win this game, they might be 0-6 before you know it!

By picks Carolina (-5). Camolina and company will finally get their first win under the Newton regime.  Again I admit, I did not think Cam Newton would be even remotely as effective as what he’s shown his first two games, but I am now eating my words.  He did throw three picks last week which was costly in an otherwise close game against the defending champs, but Newton’s been more than impressive nonetheless.  I feel the Jags are making the right move in starting fellow rookie Blaine Gabbert, but ultimately there’s some growing pains he’ll have to go through.  Not everyone is Cam Newton.  MoJo Drew will have his work cut out for him, but similar to the situation in Minnesota with AP, not one guy can carry his team solo.  The Panthers win, and win big at the end.

Atlanta (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay

Chappy picks Atlanta (-1.5). If Sunday’s late game didn’t convince you the Falcons are pretty good, then I don’t know what to tell you. Tampa Bay has a tough time stopping Michael Turner, I think he had a 200 yard 2 TD game against them last year (He was on my fantasy team). I like the Bucs, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to bet on them. I don’t even think having the Sportschump screaming his drunk ass off will help them overcome Matty Ice. Speaking of Ryan, it seems like he didn’t really get a lot of credit for leading his team to a comeback win, so big ups Matty.

Green Bay (-3.5) @ Chicago

Chappy picks Green Bay (-3.5). GB beat the Saints, the Saints destroyed Chicago = Packers winning by more than 4. I’m not sure why, but I kinda feel bad for Cutler. Did you see how many times he was laying on his back last week? Maybe the Bears need to do what Carolina is doing with Cam, and leave eight guys in to protect him. Usually these two teams play close games, but this feels a little different this year. The Bears are piling on injuries mixed with a little giving up on Martz and old age, which isn’t a good sign in week 3. I have a hard time seeing the Pack letting this game be as close as last weeks against Carolina.

Baltimore (-6) @ St. Louis

By picks Baltimore (-6). Similar to what happened last week when Pittsburgh hosted Seattle a week after being embarrassed by Baltimore, the Ravens will take out their frustrations from a disappointing loss on another NFC West team.  Baltimore definitely had a opening week hangover in week two.  The way they played against the Titans, is not the way you want to follow up a statement win.  I look for the Ravens to be angry as hell for their match up against the Rams, and with St. Louis possibly without Steven Jackson again, and leading pass catcher Danny Amendola, this game might get ugly quick.  I’m thinking 30-9, Ravens.