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Doin Lines Week 14

Chappy: Let’s just not talk about last weekend and leave it at that since it wasn’t a good week for either of us. Unfortunately By won’t be joining me with the picks this week, because work has gotten in the way again.

Last Week: Chappy (2-3) By (1-3)

Overall: Chappy (38-26-4) By (27-20)

Oakland @ Green Bay (-11)

New Orleans @ Tennessee (+3.5)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-3.5). I’ve rarely bet on the Titans games, because they’re a very hard team to figure out. I’ve heard all about how the Saints struggle on the road, but this offense is clicking on a level they haven’t seen since their 2009 Super Bowl run. It hasn’t just been through the air either. Regardless of who’s been running the ball  or catching out of the backfield they’ve been gobbling up the yardage. I know Chris Johnson is tearing it up lately, but the rest of the Titans offense just doesn’t convince me they’ll be able to keep up on the scoreboard. Maybe they’re 7-5 for a reason, but I honestly can’t put my finger on why they are.

New England @ Washington (+8)

Chappy picks New England (-8). Is this the same New England team that was favored by 20 last weekend against a Colts team that was put to sleep with Peyton’s neck surgery anesthesia? I think so, and I’m sure they know that last weekends game was way too close for comfort. I expect to see a huge game from Brady and Co with their defense stepping up more than it has in a few weeks. I’m sure the Grossman-Helu option play will get the Pats prepared perfectly for their match up with the Denver Tebows in week 15.

Oakland @ Green Bay (-11)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-11). I wish one of the three injured guys between McFadden, Ford, and Moore was healthy enough to play. If ONE of them was playing I’d feel comfortable that the Raiders would be able to cover the spread. I’m getting annoyed with how Hue has been our defacto GM this year, and trying to wear too many hats in the organization. I didn’t mind the Palmer trade, and still don’t, but the second time he was put into a GM type ruling with McClain, he showed us why he can’t do both jobs. While worrying about trading for Palmer, we ended up getting thumped by KC. While worrying about whether or not to play McClain last weekend ended with them getting destroyed by Miami. Hue didn’t have the team prepared the two times he was playing GM instead of concentrating on winning that week’s game like a HC should be doing. I look for the Raiders to play better than last week, but let’s face it, they’re playing the Packers in Lambeau… Oh a sad note, my condolences go out to Chris Johnson, and the sister he lost to a senseless shooting, maybe Rolando will learn something from this.

Chicago @ Denver (-3.5)

Chappy picks Denver (-3.5). As if it couldn’t look more hopeless for the Raiders supposed resurgent season. Now the healthy Von Miller led Broncos D gets to feast on Caleb Hanie and his Forteless offense. Maybe Urlacher or Briggs can do us a favor and knock a snot bubble out of Tebow. I’m actually predicting there will be no Tebow magic in this one, because the Bears will never really be in this game long enough for that Tebow magic to actually happen. They could probably win with Eric Decker starting at QB this weekend. I think God has one of those stickers on his truck with a Broncos fan peeing on a Raiders logo.

St. Louis @ Seattle (-9.5) 

Chappy picks Seattle (-9.5). I usually try to avoid these games, but this one was an easy choice. Seattle actually looks like a solid team recently. You could even say they’re the Dolphins of the NFC as hot as they’ve been. If you haven’t been enjoying Marshawn going all beast mode the past four weeks, then he must’ve scorned you in a fantasy league in years past. Seattle is really tough to beat at home, and St. Louis forgot how to score points a few weeks ago when they gave up on their season. Not even Steven Jackson can get interested in their games. If the Rams score more than 10 points, I’d call that a mini-win for them at this point.

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Doin Lines Week 13

Chappy: Whoa, in By’s absence, I almost had a perfect week if I hadn’t stupidly gone against the Packers on Thanksgiving. This week we both decided to skip the Thursday game altogether… I’m creeping in on my best gambling season since the first year I started betting on the games. Naturally winning a lot that first season got me hooked for life, but this year may have gotten me more into it than ever. Enough of my bragging babbling and onto this weeks picks!

By: Sucks that I was too swamped at work to put in my thoughts on the match ups last week.  But with Chappy going 6-1, the hot streak continues for the Doin Work team, as both of us remain well over .500.  Not much else to say other than enjoy our picks, and onto the lines!

Last Week: Chappy (6-1)

Overall: Chappy (36-23-4) By (26-17)

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-7)

Chappy picks Cincinnati (+7). For some strange reason I’m really confident in this pick. I almost feel like taking the moneyline on this game, but that’s probably not going to happen when I can take a touchdown. The Steelers are coming in banged up with Big Ben’s finger that he injured more in practice, Polamalu’s head, and Woodley’s hammy. The Bengals on the other hand have basically nobody hurt, and are healthier than any team I can think of off the top of my head. Oh and the Bengals are road warriors this year, going 5-0 against the spread. Will Cincy win and keep their playoff hopes alive? I can’t say they will, but it will definitely be a closer than a TD type game.

Atlanta @ Houston (+2.5)

Chappy picks Atlanta (-2.5). I think every week I write that a team is overlooked, and this week is no different as I think Atlanta has really rounded into form, and they catch a huge break playing against a third string QB in T.J. Yates. As if the Texans weren’t predictable enough before with their offensive scheme, now they might run 85% of the time. I see the Texans franchise long 5-game winning streak coming to an end as Matt Ryan puts up some big numbers on a defense that is on the field too much during this game.

By picks Atlanta (-2.5). Atlanta isn’t the best of road teams, but they’re definitely a talented bunch, with enough weapons to compete against the Saints or Packers in a slugfest on any given Sunday.  But the fact that this game is considered an even bet, when Houston will most likely start a third string quarterback in T.J. Yates speaks volume on the balance this Texans team has.  We all know of the two headed monster in the backfield with Foster and Tate, Andre Johnson is back and closing in all full strength, but it’s Houston’s underrated defense that steadies the ship in my opinion.  With all that said, I can’t see the Texans holding off the Falcons with whoever they throw in at quarterback this weekend.  That’s just too much to overcome when considering their opponent.

Oakland @ Miami (-3)

By picks Oakland (+3). Miami has been very tough lately, and prior to the Dallas game last Thanksgiving, their defense has been rather stiff.  In fact, even in that game, they had Tony Romo against the ropes for the greater portion of that game.  Offensively, Matt Moore looks just as effective, if not more effective than Chad Henne did earlier in the season.  And don’t look now, but is that Reggie Bush shouldering the load as the lead back?  Unfortunately Miami is facing an Oakland team that has yet to peak, but is coming off an impressive win against a then streaking Bears team.  When Carson Palmer finally clicks with his receivers, watch out!  The one thing the Raiders can hang their hat on, is that running game.  Darren McWho?  Michael Bush has filled in and at times outshined DMac.  And I expect more of the same this week.  Raiders by 7.

Denver @ Minnesota (PK)

By picks Denver (PK). I’m sorry, but I can’t explain the Tebow phenomenon.  Like I’ve said in the past, I’ve been a Tebow fan, and I knew of what he was capable of doing in college purely on his will to compete, but this is the NFL.  This is the elite among the elite.  And according to the experts, Tebow is not supposed to be successful at this level.  Well he’s 5-1 as a starter this year and has a once dead Broncos team in the hunt for a playoff spot.  It’s tough to bet on a west coast team travelling east, but the fact that one side has a hobbled AP, and the other an improbable winner, I like my chances with the latter.  God’s QB delivers again.

Baltimore @ Cleveland (+6.5)

Chappy picks Baltimore (-6.5). As much as I hate to pick the Ravens after a big win after they seem to usually choke against a crap team like the Browns, but not this weekend. I don’t see how they can play down to the Browns level even if they are division rivals. I think what makes me think they won’t play down to the competition is they get a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thanksgiving. Peyton Hillis might be back, but that won’t help as much since he’s been a huge disappointment all year long and the Ravens are pretty good at stuffing the run lately…

Green Bay @ New York Giants (+7)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-7). There’s one way to stop Aaron Rodgers, and that is to knock him out of the game. Without Osi in the lineup, I don’t forsee any Rodgers concussions. The Packers also had some extra time to prepare for the Giants, which makes me think they’ll do what the Saints did to their defense. I was watching some highlights of Rodgers that Kurt Warner went through, and it looks like he channeled some inner Brett Favre with a little Peyton mixed in. Favre in that he was taking risks, and Peyton in that he always makes the right choice on where to throw the ball. If the Pack get out to a big lead, don’t be surprised to see the boo birds coming out in NY as their team gives up early in the third quarter.

By picks Green Bay (-7). I know this is essentially a must win for Eli Manning and the Giants.  And I know they’ll be playing at the New Meadowlands.  But I just can’t bet against Aaron Rodgers.  He’s the clear cut favorite for MVP this season, so much so that if you a bet a dollar on him to win the award right now in Vegas, and he does win it, you lose a dollar.  I know it’s standard protocol for a team flirting with perfection to not talk about the potential feat, but there’s something about the way the Pack carry themselves that makes me think they’re really going to go for it.  And aside from the Saints game on opening night, I must say, they haven’t been truly threatened to lose yet.  If Drew Brees ripped apart the Giants secondary, what do you think Rodgers might do?  Pack, big.

Detroit @ New Orleans (-9)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-9). It’s hard not to like what the Saints have been doing at home this year putting up 40+ ppg. No need to tell you about all their weapons, because that might take as long as this entire post to break down. One other thing you have to be excited about with the Saints is they are pretty much completely healthy. The Lions have fallen back into the team they’ve been for the past few decades. An undisciplined bunch that finds ways to lose. They kinda remind me of the Raiders last year, improving, but just not quite there yet in terms of maturity (not that the Raiders are mature this year). The Saints are there, and will roll them up in the Sunday night late game.

 

 


Doin Lines Week 11

Chappy: Another week in the books, and By is on a tear right now. I didn’t have a winning week, but the Raiders did come away from this weekend holding sole possession of first place in the AFC West, so all in all it was a great week! This week we have Ryan Meehan joining us from such blogs as First Order Historians, East End Philadelphia, and the official Ryan Meehan website with our picks.

By:  Of course God had smite me for going against his favorite quarterback in Tim Tebow.  Never shall I listen to the devil over my shoulder again and doubt the “Chosen One”.  Like so many times before this season,  my 3 team parlay fell short because I couldn’t pull the trigger on my Niners at home, and elected to go with a now hopeless Chiefs team instead.  All good, the positive out of it all, I’m nearly 10 games over .500 on Doin Lines!  Now onto the lines!

Last Week: Chappy (2-3) By (3-1)

Overall: Chappy (27-20-3) By (24-15)

NY Jets @ Denver (+6.5)

Meehan picks Denver (+6.5). Denver must be good if they can win a game by 7 points having their quarterback only completing two passes.  And the Jets must be slightly out of focus if they just lost a home game by three touchdowns.  Given it was against New England, but there is something really wrong with the Jets.  Regardless, they are still better than the Broncos and it’s a must win for them, so I’m taking them to win.  Plus a loss would sink them to .500 and although it wouldn’t mean they were out of the playoff race just yet, it definitely would mean they’re standing on the slide ready to fall into the pool.  Jets 24, Broncos 18.

Chappy picks Denver (+6.5). I’m not sure why, but I’m actually starting to buy into the whole Tebow is a winner thing. Maybe it’s the way God has put By in his place with his parlay card! One thing I really like about Tebow is you know he’s not afraid to make a mistake or two, because he burshs it off one second later. Having said that, I think the Broncos will lose Thursday night, but not by a ton. I picked a close score hoping for an entertaining game at least. Can Rex Ryan figure out John Fox’s foot fetish of a ground game? Tough to say, but I think Von Miller is an absolute beast and will keep the Jets from being able to run all that much.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-7)

Chappy picks Cincinnati (+7).

The cardiac cats are back. They seem to have a close game every week, and have been on the right side of most of those games. Dalton isn’t playing like a rookie, and the firecrotch has revived a team from the dead with help from AJ Green. Hopefully Green is on the field this weekend as they’ll need all the weapons possible against a Ravens team that is hard to figure out. The Ravens have been a huge anomaly this year, and seem tough to figure out from week to week, and I seem to always pick wrong when betting on their games, but that isn’t stopping me this weekend. Take the seven points in what I see as a close game. The Bengals D is no joke, so I don’t see a ton of scoring.

Oakland @ Minnesota (+1)

Chappy picks Oakland (-1). Is it me or should this line be more in favor of Oakland? I guess it doesn’t matter since nobody wins by one anyway. For starters the Raiders will have 10 days rest for this game after playing on Thursday in SD. The Vikings will be on short rest because of MNF. Am I overconfident in Palmer at the helm of our offense? Probably, because he’s been making throws I haven’t seen a Raiders QB make in over a decade. He’s made throws that not even the great Rich Gannon would’ve been able to make. Questioning his arm strength might just mean you haven’t seen his last two games. Minnesota seems to have packed it in already. If the Raiders don’t win this, they don’t deserve the AFC West title.

By picks Oakland (-1).  I’ve been saying for quite some time that the Raiders are the best team in the AFC West, followed closely by the Chargers.  Last week, the point was proven as the Silver & Black went into Qualcomm Stadium, in what felt like a home game for them, and took first place.  Now that’s how you’re supposed to take something you want Juan Manuel Marquez.  Anyway, there is some doubt here, as no team from the west likes traveling east for an early game, but coming off an emotional win like they are, I can’t fathom a Raiders let down this week.  Carson Palmer is slowly getting it back, and getting familiar with his talented receivers, and whether DMac plays or not doesn’t matter.  Michael Bush has shown what he’s capable of doing as the lone feature back when given the opportunity.  It will be tough, and AP will have a big game, but the Raiders edge out the Vikings by 4 here.

Buffalo @ Miami (+2)
Meehan picks Miami (+2). Upset special.  Not only is Buffalo total bullshit, they don’t match up well against the style of football Miami’s been playing as of late.  In a twisted sort of way I’m not even sure this is really an upset at all.  The game is in Miami and that fact always fills some extra space. Dolphins 24, Bills 23.

Carolina @ Detroit (-7)

Chappy picks Carolina (+7). Is it just me or did everyone completely discount the loss of Javid Best to the Detroit offense? Since he went down on his umpteenth concussion, they haven’t been the same team we saw in the beginning of the season. I think they had Stafford throw something like 60 passes last week, the polar opposite of what any team wants to do on offense. Either way they have zero running game without Best, and it’s hard to win throwing as much as they have lately, unless you have an elite QB, not sure Stafford is that quite yet.

Meehan picks Detroit (-7). I think we can all agree that the Lions looked horrible against Chicago last week.  Not nearly as bad as Carolina, who appears to have given up after seeing “highlights” from that Titans game this past Sunday.  Much like the Jets have to have the Thursday night game, the Lions need this one bigtime because writers (like me) and fans are starting to think the beginning of this season was a fluke for them.  And it’s really hard to mention Detroit without bringing up how dirty of a team they are, so there’s your weekly standard comment on that. Lions 27, Carolina 11.

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay (-14)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-14). I simply don’t see anyone stopping Aaron Rodgers and the Pack especially a younger Bucs squad on the road in Lambeau. The Packers defense looked much better against the Vikings on Monday, not sure if that’s really showing improvement or if the Vikings suck that bad. Maybe they’ve figured out that part of their team again. If so, that’s scary for the rest of the league…

Tennessee @ Atlanta (-6)

Meehan picks Tennessee (+6). Since I can’t stand the Hasselbeck era Titans, you can almost bet the farm that they’ll win here.  The Falcons have had to deal with questions all week about Mike Smith’s decision to go for it on fourth down at their own 29 yard line.  And it’s a shame they have, because it’s distracting the fans from the real issue at hand here:  That no matter how many times I write it I still can’t believe that Matt Hasselbeck has a job as a starter in the NFL.  And since the Texans just lost their starting quarterback it’s possible the Titans may end up winning the AFC South now.  Unreal.  So I’m hoping the Falcons win because I want to see the Texans make the playoffs, but I’m picking the Titans to win because not only am I a fan of reverse psychology, but I love being right. Titans 27, Falcons 23.

San Diego @ Chicago (-3.5)

Chappy picks Chicago (-3.5). Talk about two teams heading in opposite directions. Even the quarterbacks are on opposite ends of the spectrum from what were used to. Rivers now looks like Cutler did at the beginning of the season, and Cutler looks like what Rivers looked like last season. One thing that stands out is the O-lines. Cutler’s O-line is healthy, Rivers O-line is not. A non-healthy O-line all adds up to turnovers, which the Chargers won’t be able to overcome. I see VJ getting loose for a couple scores after apologizing to his team this week for his lackluster effort against Oakland, but that won’t help when they’re down by two or three scores and Forte is running wild on a D that isn’t great against the run. SD has issues on special teams as well, so another Hester return in this one? I feel like it’s happening if they kick to him.

By picks San Diego (+3.5).  Whatever has gotten into Douche Bag Rivers this season, I’d like to order more of that please!  I can’t stand this guy’s face.  But in reality, San Diego is immensely talented, and this is about that time of the season in which they come marching back from the dead and make a real playoff push.  It won’t be easy, as they’ll have to get their season turned around on the road in chilly weather against a hot Bears team.  Perhaps Brian Urlacher wasn’t wrong about saying Jay Cutler is the best quarterback if given time, as Cutler has been great lately.  (I still don’t believe that statement).  Whatever the case, this game should be a shootout, and I predict a lot of points on the board, but ultimately the desperation of the Chargers gives them the added advantage.  Bolts over Bears by 3.

Dallas @ Washington (+7.5)

By picks Dallas (-7.5).  I normally don’t like the idea of going with a team that has to win a division game by more than a touchdown on the road, but I’m kind of buying Dallas for the next few games.  Tony Romo looks somewhat competent as of late, as shown by his dismantling of Buffalo at home last week, but more importantly Jason Garrett elected to go conservative with a big lead this time around, unlike in the Detroit choke job, where Romo handed the Cowboys a loss.  Maybe it’s because they have a real running game now with DeMarco Murray.  On the flip side, Washington has absolutely no identity.  Did they really go back to Rex Grossman?  Will they continue to rotate starting running backs each week?  Who knows, but they’re a mess, and they’re going to get steamrolled this week.

Meehan picks Dallas (-7.5). Washington is now on a six game losing streak, and here they run into the Cowboys who are one of the five hottest teams in all of football right now.  If you’re a fantasy guy and you own you some Dallas players, start every single one of them.  And I’m not sure how fantasy football even works but if there’s some bizarre way that you can start them twice at the same time go ahead and do that too.  This will be the game where Romo goes 31 for 35 and throws for 380, could even be a career game for him. Cowboys 40, Redskins 19.

Jacksonville @ Cleveland (PK)

Meehan picks Jacksonville. When I first contacted Chappy about doing these picks, he mentioned that he doesn’t pick all of the games every week.  I would assume that this was the type of game he was talking about.  Browns would be the most disappointing team in the league if anybody had actually expected anything out of them, which they didn’t so it’s not really an issue. Jags 19, Browns 6.
Seattle @ St. Louis (+1.5)
Meehan picks Seattle (-1.5). I talk a lot of shit about the Seahawks but you have to give them credit.  There’s almost absolutely no way for them to sneak into the playoffs and they laid the Ravens out after the largest moral victory that team has had since Super Bowl XXXV.  Of all the players that didn’t get moved before the trade deadline, Marshawn Lynch has to be more pissed than any of them.

Kansas City @ New England (-14.5)

By picks New England (-14.5).  Tom Brady looked magnificent against the hated Jets in New York last Sunday night.  A Jets defense that features the best corner in the league.  Problem is, Brady loves his tight ends, and Revis doesn’t match up against either of them.  Even if he did for a possession, who would cover Wes Welker?  I guess what I’m saying is, the Patriots have too many options to defend against on offense, and they have a quarterback who knows how to get the ball to the right match ups.  Only way New England doesn’t cover is, if they lose discipline and don’t approach this game with the business like attitude that they approach every game under Bill Belichick, or if whoever KC’s backup is, happens to be the next Tom Brady.  I believe both is highly unlikely.  Pats big.


Doin Lines Week 9

Chappy: First off, the picture above was taken by my friend down in Huntington Beach of her friend and his kid showing up to their Halloween BBQ/party. Easily the best father-son costume combo I saw over the Halloween weekend or most disturbing, I’m not sure. Last weekend I narrowly avoided a three-week losing streak. With no NBA, it’s going to be nice to have Thursday night football returning in week 10, especially since it’s the Raiders-Chargers game in the inaugural Thursday game of the season. Just like the AFC West, the lines this weekend are hard to feel comfortable about, but here we go.

By:  After a stressful week of work, I finally took the time out to look at this week’s lines, afterwards, I couldn’t decide which was more stressful between the two.  Thankfully I’ve been making solid picks as of late, and I credit it to sticking with my gut instincts.  With that said, I’m still steaming from my decision to switch out my pick on my parlay card from Philly, to Diego last week.  Douche Bag Rivers strikes again.  On to the lines ~

Last Week: Chap (3-2), By (3-1)

Overall: Chap (21-16-3) By (18-14)

NYJ @ Buffalo (-2)

By picks the Jets (+2).  Buffalo sits atop one of the toughest divisions in football with a 5-2 record, they already defeated the division favorite Patriots once this season, but for the life of me, I still can’t look at them as a legitimate threat to win the AFC East.  Ryan Fitzpatrick and even more so Fred Jackson have had great seasons thus far, but neither I trust long-term.  That’s another discussion.  Truth is, the Jets are crazy underachievers, and similar to the Eagles, they just need to get pushed to the limit before they get things going.  Although I don’t put much faith in Mark Sanchez, I do believe the overall Jets team is far too talented to slip further behind in their division.  The turnaround starts this Sunday.  I think the Jets win by 10 or more.

Atlanta @ Indianapolis (+7)

Chappy picks Atlanta (-7). Is there any team that is winless that looks worse than Indy? Rhetorical question, and I think I’m going to make it a point to pick against them every week for the rest of the year. I’m starting to feel bad for Jeff Spicoli as everyone besides Pierre Garcon seems to have given up on him, which includes the defense. The Falcons are coming off a bye week, and probably saw how easy it was for the Saints to have their way with the Colts a few weeks ago, and should be able to copy some of that blueprint. I see this being decided by halftime, with Michael Turner holding the ball for more time than the Colts offense does for the entire game.

Cleveland @ Houston (-11)

Chappy picks Houston (-11). I don’t think it matters whether Andre Johnson plays in this game or not, Houston will win. The Browns have had milestone wins this season over, Miami, Seattle, and Indy. Who's even on this team?Wow, that’s pretty impressive Cleveland. This weekend they’ll go into the game without Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty, pretty much their offensive threats. The Texans have two RB’s that have nearly as many yards each as the Browns have accumulated total. I know it’s a QB’s world, but every team needs some kind of running game, unless you have a star QB, and the Browns don’t have that yet in McCoy. I see this ending like the game Houston played against Tennessee (41-7).

Denver @ Oakland (-8)

Chappy picks Oakland (-8). This might be my least confident pick, but all the other games on the slate don’t appeal to me, so I’ll talk about the Raiders. It’s a battle of two QB’s that are trying to prove themselves. Unfortunately only Carson has actually proved anything in the NFL, and he has the more well-rounded team. I think the main reason I’m feeling so confident about this game is because the Raiders are coming off a bye week and are healthier than they’ve been since week 1 in the secondary. They may be without McFadden, but I’d rather let his foot rest and wait to put him in against the Chargers next week when he’s 100% instead of 80% for two weeks. I guess that might not matter, because Tebow throws like Jamarcus hitting receivers feet or teammates on the sidelines with jackets on. I would like to see Tebow score a TD and jump in the black hole to get de-virginized.

San Francisco @ Washington (+3.5)

Chappy picks San Francisco (-3.5). I can’t believe I’ve seen the 49ers in the top five on power rankings lately. Not that it isn’t deserved, but who would’ve thought a coach would’ve made so much of a difference. The Redskins started the season well, but since week 4 they’ve been what I thought they’d be this year, crappy. The stout 49ers D should be able to stop a turnover prone offense, and may even outscore the Redskins offense. I’ll probably never say the 49ers offense looks explosive, but it has been a lot more competent than I expected this year. Gore should have a monster game against a defense that has given up a ton of yards on the ground to their last three opponents. I’m not even worried about the whole westcoast team flying to play an early game on the eastcoast…

Harbaugh equal plenty of attitude.By picks who else, SF (-3.5).  It’s crazy to think the 49ers are ranked #2 on ESPN’s power rankings as of Week 8, and I’m still not sure they’re deserving of it, but one thing’s for sure, they’re a helluva a team, and they got a helluva a coach.  Just think about how good Jim Harbaugh’s coaching has been this season.  Aside from questionable, conservative decisions he made in Week 2 against Dallas, he’s called perfect games this season.  This is virtually the same Niner team as last year.  Washington’s on the down, while the Niners keep rising.  With big road wins already against Cincinnati (in a hideous game), Philadelphia and Detroit, there’s no reason to believe San Francisco can’t take care of a Washington team which was recently shut out.  Niners by 7.

Green Bay @ San Diego (+5.5)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-5.5). The Phillip Rivers debacle in SD couldn’t make a Raiders fan more happy. Unfortunately the Chargers are still tied for first even with their best player sucking it up. If they are losing to teams like the Jets and Chiefs, then they pretty much don’t have any shot at beating the Packers. No need to write much here, except take GB with confidence!No need to double check, Rodgers is that good.

By picks San Diego.  Yeah right, By picks Green Bay (-5.5).  Green Bay is the #1 team according to ESPN’s power rankings and they totally deserve it.  The only undefeated team left standing, and although there’s still a lot of season left, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were heading towards a perfect one.  Aaron Rodgers is the MVP, really no if’s, and’s or but’s about it.  And unlike Douche Bag Rivers, Rodgers knows how to make use of the talent around him.  The game will be relatively close all day, until the 2011 MVP pulls the Pack away for good.

 


Doin Lines Week 7

Chappy: It took six weeks, but I finally had a crappy one. Hopefully this dream start to the season with my picks isn’t just a footnote on the way to an average year. It was nice to have my one win be the Raiders game. I’ll take a 1-3-1 every week if the Raiders are the sole win!

By:  Feels good to be back on the winning side after going 3-1 last week.  I feel the last two or three weeks have had the toughest lines I can remember.  After finally seeing this week’s lines, I can breathe a sigh of relief.  These seem doable.  With that said, I only pick the locks baby … on to the lines ~

Last week: By (3-1) Chap (1-3-1)

Overall: By (13-11) Chap (16-10-3)

Chicago vs. Tampa Bay (+1)

Chappy picks Tampa Bay (+1). It’s tough to feel good about picking a game in London, especially with two erractic teams that seem hard to figure out where exactly they are through six weeks of the season. The Tampa win over New Orleans impressed me to the point that I’m going to pick them. Even without Blount in the lineup they amassed 117 yards rushing. If Freeman can stay patient and dink and dunk his way down the field without making any interceptions this is a lock. Well, unless they for some strange reason decide to kick to Hester.

Washington  @ Carolina (-2.5)

By picks Camolina (-2.5).  Carolina ran into a determined Atlanta team last week, but still kept it close late until the Falcons pulled away by 14.  Amazingly, that’s exactly how much I said the Dirty Birds would win by.  The return of Bystradamus?  Before I get carried away, let’s look at this week’s match up for the Panthers, and why this is a lock for them to cover.  First and foremost, Cam Newton.  Second, Mike Shanahan, or in the fantasy world, Lucifer, has been carouseling running backs in the lineup all season for the Skins.  It’s a disaster back there.  Now, albeit inevitably, it’s the quarterbacks’ turn.  John Beck won’t throw as many picks as Rex “Gross, Man” but he’ll win the same amount of games for you this season.  Which is close to nothing moving forward.  I know Washington got off to a good start, but unlike the Bills, we knew it would fall apart for them.  Camolina at home against a team in full disarray, I got to like my chances with the Panthers.

Chappy picks Carolina (-2.5).  I expected more from Carolina last weekend against the Falcons, but I think the Falcons were out to prove that they are still contenders, so Cam alone wouldn’t be enough stop them. This weekend he takes on a very solid Washington defense, the only problem for Washington is they’re starting John Beck. Not that I liked Grossman or anything, but he seemed like a better option to me even with his ugly 4 int performance. At the beginning of the year I didn’t think I’d be picking Carolina in any games, but they truly are a different team than last year…

Denver @ Miami (-1)

Chappy picks Miami (-1). This game wouldn’t be hyped at all if it wasn’t Tebow’s first start of the season and his return to Florida, but both those things are happening so it’s all of a sudden a big game. I actually thought the Dolphins looked good for a half against the Jets, and you know Marshall is going to get fired up to play his old team trying to go into monster mode as often as possible. If there’s one weakness in Denver’s defense, it’s their ability to stop the run. Consequently that’s one of the only things Miami does well. Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas should have big games on their way to a win. Tebow might do well, but I don’t see them winning.

By picks Tebow (+1).  I’m waiting for Brandon Marshall to say he’s trying to get thrown out of this game during warm ups in attempt to show how much passion he has playing for a winless team.  If that happens, Denver’s the sexy pick all the way.  Wait, Timmy Tebow’s starting!?!?  Then Denver is already the sexy pick!  All jokes aside, I’ve been a huge Tebow fan for two reasons:  One, he’s a great leader, and his actions speak louder than his words.  Two, he’s the second sports legend to come out of the Philippines!  (Yeah, I claim him as Filipino).  But, when it’s all said and done, Tebow knows how to win.  Screw the mechanics, screw the intangibles, this guy gets the job done.  Check his track record.  Denver can afford him this opportunity, and he will stand and deliver.  At least this week.  Against a winless team.

Atlanta @ Detroit (-4)

By picks Detroit (-4).  I think I’m the only one who thinks the Jim Harbaugh/Jim Schwartz fiasco was entirely blown out of proportion.  And I’m probably the only San Francisco fan that thinks Harbaugh gave a douche of a handshake.  Yeah Schwartz acted like a little sissy brat, but there’s a lot of pride involved in football, and you don’t let another man belittle you like that.  With all that said, Harbaugh in the 3rd.  Now back to Detroit.  They must be pissed, not only to get their first loss last week, but in the matter in which they received it.  I’m weary of picking them here with the status of Jahvid Best still in the air, but I think the spread offense, as well as Stafford to Megatron is still enough to propel the Lions at home versus the Falcons.  It’s hard to make a read on this Atlanta team this season, the verdict is still out on them.  But I don’t trust them on the road this season one bit.  Detroit by 6.

Pittsburgh @ Arizona (+4)

Chappy picks Pittsburgh (-4). The Steelers are getting a little old, but their not old to the point where they’ll lose to the Cardinals. Missing Jerome Harrison due to a tumor might hurt their defense a little, but then again you don’t need a lot to beat this team. The Steelers either blow a team out or play down to their competition. I feel like they’ll blow out AZ the same way they did in the Super Bowl two years back. Mike Wallace is a little dinged up, but with Pittsburgh finally getting the running game going, it probably doesn’t matter.

Kansas City @ Oakland (-4.5)

By picks Oakland (-4.5).  Oakland’s a team on the rise, and their about to get better with the addition of Carson Palmer.  Can you imagine Palmer clicking with all his weapons with the speed and talent this Raiders offense has?  I really think San Diego’s reign over the AFC West is in jeopardy, like right now.  Hue Jackson has proven why the Raiders looked no further than within when hiring a replacement for Tom Cable.  His play calling has been spot on this season, and his attitude is refreshing.  It’s nice to see both Bay Area teams succeeding this year.  As far as this week’s match up, what’s not to like with the Silver & Black?  They’re home, they’re hot, they’ve got a real threat at quarterback, an excellent coach, game breakers on offense and they’re playing the Chiefs.  To me, -5 sounds like a trap game line, but I’m confident Oakland won’t disappoint.

Chappy picks Oakland (-4.5). I think I’m already a little tired of hearing about whether Palmer should or shouldn’t start. Who gives us a better chance to win? I’d say Carson after one week of practice over Boller playing backup for the season. We always waste our timeouts anyways, so if he isn’t sure on a play use one! And really how hard is it going to be for him to turn around and hand off the ball to McFadden and Bush? Seems like an easy game plan to me without putting a ton of pressure on him. On the other side, the Chiefs have rattled off two straight wins, but they were against the Colts and Vikings, who we all know are about as bad as it gets in opponents. I’m somewhat worried about this Chiefs squad, mainly because they’re coming off the bye week. Then again the Raiders will probably give them a lot of new looks with their new QB at the helm.

Baltimore @ Jacksonville (+8)

Chappy picks Baltimore (-8). I think I’d still pick Baltimore if the spread was 14. Baltimore is possibly the team to beat in the AFC, and have put up 33 per game during their 3 game win streak. Conversely Jacksonville has only scored 11 points per game during their five game losing streak. This is probably THE easiest pick of the week. Ride with it to some money!!


Doin Lines Week 6

Chappy: The dream season continues as I had another good weekend of picks. As I said in my post Wednesday, I didn’t get to see much football over the weekend, but did hear and read plenty of analysis to know what happened to help me with this weeks picks. Let the good times keep on rolling!

By:  Got my ass kicked last week.  Time to exact some revenge!  To the lines ~

Last week: Chappy (3-1-1) By (1-3)

Overall: Chappy (15-7-2 By (10-10) 

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh (-12)

Chappy picks Pittsburgh (-12). Pittsburgh has been an iffy pick on some weeks this year, but aside from the game against the Colts, they’ve beat teams they are supposed to convincingly. I’m not sure I believe in Blaine Gabbert much at all, especially with the limited amount of weapons he has outside of MJD. The Steelers will knock him over a lot forcing him into some turnovers. I read somewhere Mendenhall is supposed to be back, so that should only help the blowout cause.

Philadelphia @ Washington (+1)

By picks Philadelphia (-1).  I thought last week would be when the Eagles finally showed what their capable of, and to a certain extent they did, nearly coming back against the Bills on the road.  Unfortunately it’s been like Groundhog’s Day for Philly, as they seem to repeat the same mistakes over and over again.  I know Mike Vick has shed the “Dream Team” label, but they do share resemblance to another “Dream Team” in a way, the Miami Heat, and not all was smooth sailing for that team.  But, the Heat did eventually get it right.  I assume the Eagles will get it going now, as they’ve wasted their life lines already.  Throwing records aside, if the Eagles can’t beat this suspect Redskins team this week, they can kiss the playoffs goodbye.  I don’t see Philly missing the playoffs, quite yet.

Carolina @ Atlanta (-4)

Chappy picks Carolina (+4). Cam returns to his homeland of Atlanta. If there’s one thing I’ve taken from this Panthers team is that they don’t get blown out. The one time they lost by more than three points it was by seven to the defending Super Bowl champs. The Falcons are saying all the right things, but don’t seem to be executing them well enough to get them put into the upper echelon of teams that they were in last season. My question for this team is has their window already closed? Seems like they’re pretty old at some of the skill positions like Turner, Gonzalez, Babineaux, and Abraham all over 30. I still think Atlanta wins, but Cam and the Panthers hang tough like they have every week this year.

By picks Atlanta (-4).  I’ve been a huge supporter of Cam Newton and Carolina when making my picks this season, and they haven’t let me down yet.  But, I’ve been an even bigger supporter of Matty Ice over the past few seasons, especially at home.  Obviously, the Falcons have not looked good coming out of the gates this season, considering they held the best record in the NFC last year, but this is still the same dynamic team as a season ago.  A team like this is due for a breakout game, a game that will remind the census that they are still a legitimate championship contender, and this will be that game.  Cam has been remarkable thus far, and is running away with the ROY votes, perhaps even swaying some MVP ones, but there’s only so much one guy can do to keep his team close in every game.  I sense he slows down a little this week, hits a small speed bump on the road against a division rival.  Atlanta wins this game by 14.

Buffalo @ New York Giants (-3)

Chappy picks Buffalo (+3). I think everyone is wondering when this Buffalo team will fall back to earth. I feel like they will eventually, but for the time being they believe in themselves, which is nearly always the most important part of a team. The Bills always seem to come through in the clutch, and well, the Giants seem to find ways to fall apart in the clutch over the past year and a half. The Giants haven’t really played anyone I deem a good team this year, and the Bills have plenty of quality wins, so it’s an easy choice to take the points even for the road team.

Cleveland @ Oakland (-6.5)

Chappy picks Oakland (-6.5). Obviously I’ve been ecstatic about how well my Raiders have been playing, and the schedule is getting a bit easier over the next few games than it was to start the season. Not to say Cleveland can’t beat Oakland, but the line says what we should expect, a win. I am slightly concerned the players will be a little too pumped up costing us some stupid penalties, which could help the Browns stay close. One of the most encouraging things this season is the Raiders seem to have found a way to not have a let down that effects their next game. Where are all those haters that thought DHB would never be as good a receiver as Crabtree on draft day in 09? Crickets out there, that’s what I thought! I don’t feel entirely comfortable picking them to win by a touchdown, but with all the issues in Cleveland with Peyton Hillis, I don’t see how that wouldn’t be a big distraction. Colt McCoy has been impressive imo, but he’s going to have a tough time throwing over the Oakland D-line that is the best he’s faced this year. Cleveland gets swallowed by the Black Hole.

By picks Oakland (-6.5).  Shout out to Chappy & Matt, I’m really feeling this Raider team.  Jason Campbell is playing a well controlled, well-disciplined game this season, and he’s utilizing the talent he has on the edges.  Oakland’s receivers are a threat to break on every single play.  Toss in the league’s best running back in DMac, and the Raiders have an exciting brand of offensive football this year.  But you can’t overlook the Raiders D.  Along with my Niners and the Baltimore Ravens, the Raiders have one of the most physical and intimidating defensive units in all of football, add to that Sea Bass kicking 50 + yarders with a hot dog in his hand, and I’d say the Silver & Black have a good thing going for them all around.  Plus Cleveland’s coming in already terrible, and with a disgruntled star in Peyton Hillis.  That doesn’t add up well for the Browns.  Oh and by the way, the “Madden Curse” still lives.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (+4.5)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-4.5). I’ve picked New Orleans to cover the past four weeks, and they’ve come through for me in all but one. Seeing how the 49ers and Alex Smith completely dismantled the Bucs defense last week, it has to have Drew Brees salivating for this match up. Sure the Bucs will change a couple things, but how much can you really change in a cover-2 scheme in one week? Not enough to stop Drew Brees from putting up 40+ points. Do I think the Bucs can keep up on the scoreboard? Maybe if they have a huge game from Earnest Graham controlling the clock, but I don’t really see that happening, so I feel pretty confident in picking the Saints.

By picks New Orleans (-4.5).  I feel that lost in this season thus far, is how good the Saints are.  They lost a nail biter on the road in the season opener against the defending champs, and best team in football, Green Bay Packers.  Since then, they’ve reeled off four straight wins and are pulling away from the division.  Drew Brees might be the MVP if Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady didn’t exist, he’s turning Jimmy Graham into a house hold name!  Anyway, long story short, the Saints are too explosive offensively, and the Bucs seem anemic on their end.  No LaGarrette Blount and -4.5 seems like a bargain here.  Saints big.


Doin Lines Week 5

Chappy: I’m not sure what exactly is going on through the first four weeks, but I like it, especially since it’s all about offensive battles opposed to defensive battles. Is it bad the league doesn’t care about defensive rules? Who knows, but I’m glad to be a collector rather than a giver from the bookie on Mondays. I can’t remember a start to the gambling season like the one I’ve been on since I was a waiter in college. Back then I had no idea I was being sucked in by an unusual lucky streak to start off my football betting career. Just after having said all that, this week’s lines are tough with only three lines over 6 points. That bodes well for the watchability of all the match ups this weekend.

By:  Is that Chappy on fire with a winning ratio of two to one, and me two games above .500?  Yeah, that’s us.  I guess we kind of know a little bit what we’re talking about here when it comes to these lines, huh?  I’m sure it’s mostly luck, but still, I’ll take it.  Unfortunately when I looked at my parlay card this week, I lost all confidence, as the lines are killer.  I can honestly say I don’t stand firm behind any of my picks this week.  I’m merely crossing my fingers and hoping for the best.  On to the lines ~

Last Week: Chappy (4-1) By (3-1)

Overall: Chappy (12-6-1) By (9-7) 

New Orleans @ Carolina (+6.5)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-6.5). Last weekend at the bar, I was fixated on the TV showing Cam taking on the Bears. He’s already one of those athletes that make it hard to take your eye off of. He had a pretty good game, and could’ve won it if it weren’t for a Devin Hester return. Anyways, as much as I like Cam, he won’t beat New Orleans. The Saints defense isn’t highly thought of after that first game against the unstoppable Packers, but since that game they’ve been pretty solid. I feel like the Saints will be able to find a way to stop Steve Smith, because who else does Cam throw to? Drew Brees teaches Cam a trick or two while beating them by more than a TD.

By picks Carolina (+7).  Carolina sports a 1-3 record, which is not very good, but if you delve deeper you will find they’re better than what their current record indicates.  They haven’t lost a game by more than a touchdown, and they’ve had opportunities to win late in each contest they’ve played this season.  They’re currently 1-1 at home, but the loss came at the hands of Green Bay, no harm in that.  While I still think Drew Brees and company pull out the win, I’m convinced that a crowd all abuzz about Cam Newton pushes the Panthers to take the Saints to the limit.  To me, this game has game winning field goal written all over it, which is beneficial to Carolina either way.

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-3)

By picks Indianapolis (-3).  This is a disgusting game to tackle, but I’m feeling dirty.  I know the Chiefs finally got off the schneid last week at home versus Minnesota, but it was against Minnesota.  That’s got to be the most shameful way of getting your first win.  By beating Minnesota.  In fact, the only more shameful way of getting your first win is by beating the Chiefs.  After they beat Minnesota.  And that’s exactly what’s going to happen Sunday for the Colts.  Listen, Curtis Painter didn’t show me a lot last Monday, but he did show me something, he showed he can keep Tampa’s defense honest with some decent throws.  The Colts play makers are still there, and perhaps Pierre Garcon’s outburst will light a fire to them and give them some belief that they can still be relevant on the field without Manning.  Ultimately, it just comes down to me thinking the Colts have got to get their win in now, or else the talks of a 0-16 season start stirring.  Oh, and my apologies to the Chiefs, Colts and Vikings fans out there.  What I said about them is mean.

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville (-2.5)

Chappy picks Cincinnati (+2.5). When I first read this line, I thought it was backwards and was still thinking of picking Cincy. Andy Dalton feels like he’s moving in the right direction with AJ Green already being his go to receiver, while Blaine Gabbert can’t seem to get any solid footing in his limited time in the NFL. Gabbert has played better than Luke McCown, but is that really saying anything positive? The Bengals just beat the up and coming Bills last weekend, and have been close in every game, so there’s no reason to not take the points here. They kinda remind me of the cardiac cats back when Carson was leading the team. Maybe they rebuilt faster than we thought!

By picks Jacksonville (-2.5). I read what Chappy wrote about this match up, and I couldn’t agree more.  Except in the end result.  While the Bengals are the better team and have a nice piece in place in Andy Dalton, and an absolutely unstoppable force in the making with AJ Green, they’re still a relatively young and inexperienced team on offense, which means they don’t know how to pull away from teams they’re supposed to beat.  Cincinnati’s record shows they’ve only been in close games this season, and a close game means Jacksonville will utilize the run more.  So we’ll probably see more Pocket Hercules from the Jags this week as oppose to last.  Despite Blaine Gabbert’s mediocre start, his upside is far greater than that of Andy Dalton, and I have a gut feeling he flashes a glimpse of what he’s capable of this week.  My prediction, home field wins out, and MJD’s punishes the Bengals for a late costly mistake.  Jags by 4.

 

New York Jets @ New England (-9)

Chappy picks New England (-9). It’s been crazy how lifeless the Jets have been so far this season. I thought they’d be playing a lot tougher, but maybe it’s just time to blow them up and start over. The last time the Jets went to New England they beat them in the playoffs. Don’t think New England doesn’t remember that, and you never want a pissed off Pats team coming your way. The trip before that one to Foxboro was in the regular season and ended in a 45-3 win for the Pats. I see this game being more like that one than the playoff game. Then again, with Nick Mangold back being able to keep Sanchez off his backside, and if Jerod May can’t play they could put up some serious keep up points. I’m still upset the Raiders didn’t take more advantage of Mayo being out.

Philadelphia @ Buffalo (+3)

By picks Philadelphia (-3).  I have too much personal shit invested into this match up.  There, that’s the disclaimer.  If I influence your picks at all, perhaps it’s best you stay away from this one.  First off, Buffalo was up 17-3 into the third quarter versus the Bengals last week.  With the other picks on my parlay card winning handedly already, it seemed like foregone conclusion I would be getting paid out.  Long story short, the Bills blew it.  Now I’m pissed at them.  Don’t come between me and my money Buffalo.  Don’t do it.  Meanwhile, the Eagles decided to demonstrate the fundamentals of a melt down against my 49ers, allowing us to somehow win a game we were dominated in.  Thank you Philly, I now like you.  Unfortunately for the Eagles, the Cowboys decided to upstage them in the choke department, proving once again, division rivals will go to great lengths to out do each other.  In all seriousness, this week the Eagles will prove they are as good as advertised, while the Bills get exposed for the pretenders they really are.  (Assholes).

TEBOW, TEBOW, TEBOW!!

San Diego @ Denver (+4)

Chappy picks San Diego (-4). I’m actually hoping I’m wrong with this pick. I’d lose a bet to see the Chargers lose, but in realityville, I don’t see it happening. SD hasn’t really played that well, but they’ve slept walked through an easy early schedule to a 3-1 record. I hope there’s no Tebow chants, because that means the Broncos are losing. If there are some Tebow chants, at least I’ll get a laugh out of it and a winning bet. Rivers is having an off year for some reason, but there’s no place like Denver to get yourself going. I’m sure they’ll take a thing or two out of Green Bay’s playbook after showing them how to put up 49 on them last weekend.

Chicago @ Detroit (-5.5)

Chappy picks Detroit (-5.5). I can’t jump off the bandwagon of a team that’s 3-1 ATS for me. I think if this was in Chicago, I’d hesitate on this pick a lot more, but in the Lions only home game so far this year they put up 43 on the Chiefs. I think the home crowd helps younger teams more than it would an older team, which is why I picking them in this game. Plus, Detroit’s front four against the Bears O-line = Cutler on his back all game long. Chicago plays their cover-2 all game long, so I see Calvin catching a short pass, and breaking free to watch himself score a TD on the Ford Field Megatron.


Doin Lines Week 4

Chappy: So far so good on the betting season. As we and Vegas learn more about the teams the lines slowly start to get tougher! I found it pretty amazing Thursday that there was less than 10% NFL talk, and EVERYONE was talking about baseball. It might be the first time in years I can remember this happening on a national scale. Maybe this will make the MLB playoffs get a little more attention. Either way I’m excited about week 4 in the NFL to see if my Raiders are for real or not. The Jets were a test, but the Patriots are the yard stick.

By:  Back to .500, woot woot!  To the lines!

Last week: Chappy (3-2) By (3-1)

Overall: Chappy (8-5-1) By (6-6)

Detroit @ Dallas (-1.5)

Chappy picks Detroit (+1.5). It seems like there’s not much to not dislike about the Lions undefeated start whether you care about them or not. Like many others I’ve been on their bandwagon so far this season picking them to win each week. Unfortunately they didn’t cover the spread in their last battle in Minnesota. Since they’re facing the Cowboys, the line is always swayed a little more their way because Texans love gambling, and are always flooding Vegas with their bets, so take the points. Also, I think Suh is going to put a pounding on Romo one way or another. They won’t even need to sell out as much on the blitz as the Redskins did because they have a great front seven. On the flip side, I have a hard time seeing the Lions not putting up a bunch of points on an overrated Dallas D.

By picks Detroit (+1).  Detroit showed me a lot last week despite not covering.  The thing that stood out most was the way they showcased their fire power in the second half to overcome a three touchdown deficit on the road to a division rival.  3-0 doesn’t guarantee you a thing in the NFL, especially when you’re a young team,  so the Lions should still be motivated to prove themselves on a week to week basis, with this week arguably being their toughest challenge yet.  I’d most likely stay away from this game had Dallas been completely healthy, but being that Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are still questionable, and Tony Romo still has a fractured rib, I’m going with the Lions in a competitive game, 28-24.  One thing’s for sure, Romo won’t be sleeping easy anytime soon as he preps for the Detroit front line.

New Orleans @ Jacksonville (+7)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-7). Do I think the Jags can seriously put up 40 points even on a Saints defense that bleeds points? Not really when they’ve scored 13 points total in their last two games. They remind me of the Raiders in the Jamarcus era. This is the easiest pick of the week in my mind. With the downward spiral that has gone down in Jacksonville, I have no idea how Del Rio still has his job. The Saints will have this spread covered by the end of the first quarter, which might make this the least watchable game on the Sunday slate.

Washington @ St. Louis (+3)

By picks Washington (-3).  Similar to why I picked Baltimore to cover against St. Louis last week, Washington still has the bitter taste of defeat in their mouths, to a division rival nonetheless, in a game which they let slip away in my opinion, so look for them to take out their frustrations on the lowly Rams.  The Redskins have looked surprisingly efficient on offense with a tamed Rex Grossman leading the charge, how long will that last is anyone’s guess, but the St. Louis secondary is always ripe for the picking, so don’t look for Grossman to revert back to his turnover prone days just yet.  For the Rams, Steven Jackson should be healthier enough to get more reps, but aside from that, I don’t see much a doing for them.  Redskins by 10.

Atlanta @ Seattle (+4.5).

Chappy picks Atlanta (-4.5). I can’t really figure out if the Falcons are underrated or overrated, but there’s one thing I do know, and that is Seattle sucks. Last year these two met in Seattle and it went 38-10 in favor of the Falcons. I see the same kind of score happening in this game as well with Matt Ryan finally having a good game from start to finish. I think Seattle is already battling Jacksonville for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. You can count on me to parlay NO and Atlanta this weekend.

Tennessee @ Cleveland (+1)

By picks Tennessee (-1).  I’m not sold on the whole “Chris Johnson’s season is a bust” talk quite yet, so much so that I traded Michael Turner for him in my main fantasy league.  I know last week against Denver was supposed to be his break out week and it didn’t happen, but he now faces the 29th worst rushing defense in the league in Cleveland.  Mark my words, CJ will have a huge game.  The loss of Kenny Britt on the season really hampers the Titans, who because of the situation down in Indy, have now found themselves in the running for the South crown, but even with that, don’t sleep on Tennessee.  Like I’ve said in the recent past, it’s funny how quickly people forgot how good of a quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is, he’s making me look good as of late.  I know Cleveland is 2-1, but I find it difficult to read anything into their record when their wins came at the expense of Indy and Miami, two woeful teams.  Titans by 4.

Buffalo @ Cincinnati (+4)

By picks Buffalo (-4).  No one, circles the wagons, quite like the Buffalo Bills.  This game can go one of two ways.  The Bills realize in defeating the NFL’s hottest quarterback (outside of Aaron Rodgers maybe) after he started the game scorching hot, and do it in come from behind fashion on a game winning field goal as time expired, that maybe they really are that good.  Or they can go into Cincinnati and give us the biggest let down of the season.  I’m hoping it’s not the latter.  Two things that stand out in this match up, Andy Dalton is not Tom Brady, and he will not torch Buffalo’s secondary the way Brady did in the first half last week, and the Bills offense is not San Francisco’s offense, the Bengals d will have their hands full all day.  This game smells like a trap to me, but I’m going to go with Buffalo anyway in a blow out.

Denver @ Green Bay (-12.5)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-12.5). Denver hasn’t been blownout in a game, but I think they might be due for one this week when they take on Green Bay and their 9 game win streak on the road. Denver almost won in the opener against Oakland because the Raiders had 15 penalties. They beat Cincy at home, but what does that say? We are slightly better than the team that a lot of people thought was the worst in football coming into the year, yipee. They followed that up with a loss to Tennessee on the road by 3. Yup, I’d say it’s safe to think they’ll get blown out unless the Packers take them too lightly.

NY Jets @ Baltimore (-3.5).

Chappy picks Baltimore (-3.5). This one was a little tough for me, but after watching my Raiders trample the Jets for over 200 yards on the ground, I think Baltimore will be able to do the same with Ray Rice. It’s tough to pick Baltimore after their week 2 stinker out of nowhere, but I’m ready to take them again. Plus, Joe Flacco might be the best QB in the NFL through three weeks that nobody is talking about. I actually laughed when I saw someone kept him in a keeper league, but I guess he’s been doing the laughing lately.


Doin Lines Week 3

Chappy: Last week wasn’t bad, but not that great either. If it weren’t for a few scores late in games to keep them closer I could’ve gone undefeated this weekend. Unfortunately the Vegas betting gods weren’t on my side, and I ended the week at 2-3. It seems like the oddsmakers are making it tougher on the betting crowd, because this week is tougher than the first two combined in my opinion.

By:  I told Chappy prior to last week’s picks that the lines were one of the toughest I’ve ever seen.  The result, brutal.  My first donut ever.  More so than the tough picks, I feel that all the bragging I did after going 3-1 during opening week came back to bite me.  If karma’s a b**ch, make sure that b**ch is beautiful.  Mine was hideous.  To the lines ~

Note:  My picks are off parlay cards, so the spread might be different.

Overall [Chappy (5-3-1) By (3-5)]

Houston @ New Orleans (-4)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-4). The Saints offense is rolling. They put up 30 on the Bears who are supposed to be underrated, then overrated, then back to underrated again. Looking up and down the Saints roster, it seems like Sproles might have been their best signing this offseason! The one thing I’m positive on, is that the Texans defense isn’t nearly as good as the Bears or Packers D. Yes the Texans rebuilt their secondary, but this will be the first time they truly have their hands full with a great QB. I see a lot of scoring in this one, but the Saints will pull away like they usually do in front of their home crowd.

Miami @ Cleveland (-2.5)

By picks Miami (+2.5)  I like what the Browns got going with Colt McCoy, he’s shown me a lot these first two weeks of the 2011 season.  But he did play against the Bengals and Colts, two teams who will not be contending for a playoff spot, so I can’t read too much into that.  Across the way, Chad Henne has done some nice things against two division favorites, and so despite a bagel in the win column, I’m still slightly more impressed with Henne.  There’s a big question mark in the Dolphins back field, but overall Miami has more weapons than Cleveland, and win by at least six points.  Plus how can you root against a guy who wears shades every single minute of the day like Tony Sparano?

Detroit (-3.5) @ Minnesota

Chappy picks Detroit (-3.5). Detroit has given me two straight ATS wins in two weeks. I can’t remember the last any time I’ve been able to say that. They pulled out an impressive road win over the Bucs in week 1, which gives me the confidence to pick them to beat a division foe this week on the road. McNabb looked slightly better last weekend, but we still know the one thing the Lions really need to worry about, AP. If they bottle up AP, there’s noway the Vikings win. Minnesota also has a weak secondary, so expect a big day from Stafford and Megatron.

By picks Detroit (-6)  In my main fantasy league, I told my friends I wouldn’t draft a quarterback in the first five rounds because the position was deep this year.  I took Matthew Stafford in the sixth and told them all I just got a second round pick with the selection.  They all laughed, mainly because that’s what we do when anyone of us makes any pick, but still, who’s laughing now.  Offensively, Detroit is a handful for any team let alone the lowly Vikings.  Megatron, Jahvid Best and even the underrated Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler present several match up problems in which the Vikes won’t have answers for.  But it’s Ndamukong Suh and the defensive line that automatically covers the spread.  McNabb has clearly devolved into a mediocre quarterback and AP can’t carry this team alone.  This game might be close early, but slowly but surely, the Lions impose their will on Minnesota.

Jacksonville @ Carolina (-3.5)

Chappy picks Carolina (-3.5). I don’t think Cam is the greatest thing since sliced bread like many seem to think, but I do believe in him more than the newly named QB of the Jaguars, Blaine Gabbert. He’s also better than I think nearly everyone expected. Hopefully he learned a few things against the defending champs last weekend. My rule of picking against rookies starting their first game applies to this one. Will Cam throw for 400 yards again? I’d say yes because this Jaguars secondary doesn’t exactly scare teams from throwing against them. If Carolina doesn’t win this game, they might be 0-6 before you know it!

By picks Carolina (-5). Camolina and company will finally get their first win under the Newton regime.  Again I admit, I did not think Cam Newton would be even remotely as effective as what he’s shown his first two games, but I am now eating my words.  He did throw three picks last week which was costly in an otherwise close game against the defending champs, but Newton’s been more than impressive nonetheless.  I feel the Jags are making the right move in starting fellow rookie Blaine Gabbert, but ultimately there’s some growing pains he’ll have to go through.  Not everyone is Cam Newton.  MoJo Drew will have his work cut out for him, but similar to the situation in Minnesota with AP, not one guy can carry his team solo.  The Panthers win, and win big at the end.

Atlanta (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay

Chappy picks Atlanta (-1.5). If Sunday’s late game didn’t convince you the Falcons are pretty good, then I don’t know what to tell you. Tampa Bay has a tough time stopping Michael Turner, I think he had a 200 yard 2 TD game against them last year (He was on my fantasy team). I like the Bucs, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to bet on them. I don’t even think having the Sportschump screaming his drunk ass off will help them overcome Matty Ice. Speaking of Ryan, it seems like he didn’t really get a lot of credit for leading his team to a comeback win, so big ups Matty.

Green Bay (-3.5) @ Chicago

Chappy picks Green Bay (-3.5). GB beat the Saints, the Saints destroyed Chicago = Packers winning by more than 4. I’m not sure why, but I kinda feel bad for Cutler. Did you see how many times he was laying on his back last week? Maybe the Bears need to do what Carolina is doing with Cam, and leave eight guys in to protect him. Usually these two teams play close games, but this feels a little different this year. The Bears are piling on injuries mixed with a little giving up on Martz and old age, which isn’t a good sign in week 3. I have a hard time seeing the Pack letting this game be as close as last weeks against Carolina.

Baltimore (-6) @ St. Louis

By picks Baltimore (-6). Similar to what happened last week when Pittsburgh hosted Seattle a week after being embarrassed by Baltimore, the Ravens will take out their frustrations from a disappointing loss on another NFC West team.  Baltimore definitely had a opening week hangover in week two.  The way they played against the Titans, is not the way you want to follow up a statement win.  I look for the Ravens to be angry as hell for their match up against the Rams, and with St. Louis possibly without Steven Jackson again, and leading pass catcher Danny Amendola, this game might get ugly quick.  I’m thinking 30-9, Ravens.


Doin Lines Week 2

Chappy: Off to a terrific start to the gambling season, I mean NFL season, and I’m already feeling better than I did last year. I think we all learned more about teams in week 1’s 16 games than we did in all 60 preseason games combined. It seems like a thousand things happened in only one week of football, but that’s probably because we over analyze everything. Let’s keep all this good mojo we got going, and get on to the picks for week 2!

By: A quick blurb.  It’s week two, and I still feel so grateful that we are even watching football, maybe the effects of it won’t wear off at all this year.  People don’t realize how much they appreciate watching a game until it’s almost taken away from them.  Perhaps that’s the reason why Chappy and I were on fire during opening week, look at that winning percentage right there!  We got a good thing back with football, and we weren’t blowing picks on just any game.  We were focused.  We were determined.  We still are.  Although I must apologize ahead of time to Chaps, I think I just jinxed us for the rest of the season there … I guess we’ll find out soon enough.  On to the lines!

Last Week: Chappy (3-1-1) By (3-1)

Kansas City @ Detroit (-8.5)

Chappy picks Detroit (-8.5). Under normal conditions I’d never take the Lions to beat any team by more than a touchdown. I don’t think the Chiefs offense will be nearly as bad as they were against Buffalo as Bowe and Charles are bound to have better games, but their defense is awful. How do you let Ryan Fitzpatrick rip you a new one. I mean the Chiefs didn’t land at #32 in our power rankings for no reason! I don’t see the Chiefs having any answers for Megatron as he’ll knock the cornerbacks off him like nats without Eric Berry roaming the secondary. I see a close first half and a dominating second half for the Lions.

Arizona @ Washington (-4)

By picks Washington (-4). Am I really going with a team that has Rex Grossman running the show?  You bet your bottom dollar I am!  It’s not that I’m high on Grossman, but Arizona didn’t exactly impress me squeaking by Carolina at home last week.  Yes, Cam Newton went off, but what many are neglecting to ask is, how much of that was due to bad defense?  Cam Newton can’t really be that good, can he?  While not blown away by Washington’s opening performance, I did take notice.  Ultimately, my prediction is Grossman puts together a string of solid games to start the season, then returns to his “Hyde” form shortly after, throwing plenty of picks, and throwing away chances at wins along the way.  But for the time being, the Redskins ride their high all the way to their second consecutive home victory by at least 10 points.  Keep your eye on Tim Hightower as well, he’ll have a bit of a chip on his shoulder facing his old team.

Oakland @ Buffalo (-3.5)

Chappy picks Oakland (+3.5). I’m never a big fan of picking my team especially when they are travelling to the eastcoast to play an early game when they just played a Monday night game, but I can’t help myself. I actually have hope they can win outside the division this year, and hopefully it will start this week. A lot has changed since their last match up three years ago. Jamarcus was our starting QB, Buffalo still believed in Marshawn. Now both these teams look somewhat competent coming out of the gates. I love the way the Raiders are trying to be the bullies they were back in their glory days. In the MNF game they tried to give Denver chances to win with many ugly penalties, but maybe they learned something (probably not). I see them at least covering the spread.

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota (-3)

By picks Minnesota (-3). The Vikings did everything in their power to lose their season opening game at San Diego.  They begged Philip Rivers to bring the Chargers back, and that’s exactly what he did.  The Chargers are also said to be contenders in the opinions of many.  Conversely, Tampa Bay, last season’s surprise, got flat out beat by Detroit at home.  This makes the Vikings loss the more impressive of the two, or the lesser between two evils.  To Tampa’s credit, a lot is expected from the Lions this season, but I said in last week’s predictions, that I felt Tampa would use this season as an opportunity to take two steps back from last season’s success, and nothing that happened in week one has me thinking otherwise.  It should be a close game late, until Tampa subjects to some growing pains, making some crucial mistakes, while AP goes nuts.  I have a strange feeling AP goes over 200 in this game.  Vikings by 6.

Baltimore @ Tennessee (+6)

Chappy picks Baltimore (-6). The Ravens were easily the most impressive team last weekend while destroying their division foes, but like Terell Suggs said “You’re only as good as your next game”. That kind of attitude has me believing in this team more than I thought I would. There’s nothing not to like about Ray Rice right now, He was snatched up just before my first pick in both my fantasy drafts. I see their defense being able to contain CJ and possibly making Rice the best running back in the game right now. If they can stay healthy, they are going to be tough for any team to beat. Hasselbeck had a decent game for Tennessee last week, but he’s always one play away from being out for the year. Baltimore can deliver those kinds of blows, and will rattle the veteran at some point during the game into a turnover or two.

Cincinnati @ Denver (-5)

By picks Denver (-5). Listen, I’m probably more pro Tebow than anyone outside of Jesus, but even I know Tebow isn’t Denver’s best option at quarterback yet.  The Broncos ran into a highly motivated, and talented Raiders team, that ran wild on them.  That’s not really Kyle Orton’s fault.  I don’t believe the Broncos are a playoff contender, but I do believe they have more to offer than what was shown last Monday.  It’s the fans in Denver that are making them seem worse than what they really are.  The Bengals won their first game by fluke, and when pitted against a team that would like nothing more than to shut their own fans up, Kyle Orton goes ape shit and adds another 400 yard game to the calendar, while the Bengals reveal their true stripes.  Denver by 14.

Green Bay @ Carolina (+9.5)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-9.5). Cam was spectacular in his debut. I’ll be honest, I didn’t see it coming. I thought he’d be okay this year, as in, better than Tebow, but not 422 yards good. While it was a nice story for week 1, he still lost, and the Packers are going to roll out a lot of defensive schemes that will make him look like the rookie he is. If AZ can put up 28 on Carolina’d D, there’s no reason to think the Packers can’t put up 50 without breaking a sweat. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this line jump to 10 before the weekend (I wrote this on Wednesday, and low and behold the line is 10!). Too many people betting on Green Bay I see, they still look plenty attractive with the adjusted half point to the line!

San Diego @ New England (-6.5)

Chappy: San Diego (+6.5). Whoa, four picks for the road teams this week. Hopefully this works out. It seems like everyone has the Chargers somewhere between 5-8 in their power rankings, yet the Patriots are a touchdown favorite for this game?!? It feels like this line should be more in the 4 range, because the last three times they’ve hooked up the games have been decided by 4 or less points. Granted the Patriots looked amazing in their opener, while the Chargers looked a little rusty, but both over matched their opponent throughout their respective games. One thing I think we can all agree on is that both these offenses are great. Another thing we can probably agree on is that the Chargers have the better defense, and a few recievers as big as Brandon Marshall with a better QB than Chad Henne throwing to them. I hope SD loses by six or less!

Philadelphia @ Atlanta (+3)

By picks Philadelphia

You didn’t think I was only going to pick teams with home games this week, did you?  You didn’t think I was going to turn my back on the Eagles, did you?  If you said no to those questions, you thought right!  Although if there’s one team that could steal away a vote from me towards Philly in a match up, it would be the Falcons.  Matty Ice, Roddy Roddy Piper White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez and Burner Turner.  That’s a lot of weapons, and despite being held in check out in Chicago last week, no one expects this high octane offense to stall any further.  With that said, Mike Vick has been amazing since last season, and the balance on Philly’s offense, as well as the ability for the Eagles to hit a home run on any given play gives them the edge here.  I think the Eagles win by 6 in a barn burner, 40-34 in what will easily be the game of the week.  Vick returns to Atlanta too, drama …


AFC Over/Under Predictions

It’s that time of year again, and Vegas has released the props for projected win totals in the NFL earlier this week. We all took a crack at how we thought each AFC team would fare against the over/under totals, so read the teams you care about or all of them if you like our opinions that much. For the 2010 season, we were right on for 68% of our picks!

Patriots (11.5 wins)

Dre – Over.  This might be the easiest bet on the board.  The Pats won more last year, and have added an offensive weapon in 85 (said in Spanish) and a defensive stud-when-he-wants-to-be in Haynesworth.  These deals always work out for the Pats. I can see 14 again easy.

Chappy – Over, I think the Pats are ready after letting all those young players grow last year. 14 wins with a mismatched cast last season has me felling confident with this pick.

By – Over.  As much as I hope this team fails to live up to their expectations, the combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, with the additions of The Human Tweet and Albert Haynesworth should be more than enough to cover.

Chargers (10 wins)

Dre – Push.  Last year’s was in inter-division fluke.  And slow starts seem to plague this franchise.  Before their week 6 Bye: 4-1 (Ws: Min, KC, Mia, Den. L: NE).  And there will be no freak sloshball game that KC just barely wins, the 31-0 whoopin in game 2 was the truth. 

Chappy – Push, not that they can’t win more than 10, but their schedule is rough this year with games against the reining champs, and the AFC East. They were abused by their division mates last year as well, so this isn’t a lock at all.

MCeezy – Under. The window has officially closed for the Chargers. They have virtually no running game, Floyd and Jackson seem to care more about money than anything else, and Philip Rivers is a meltdown waiting to happen.

By – Over.  San Diego is still the measuring stick in the AFC West, and I haven’t seen anything done from the other teams in the division to change that.  Plus, it’s a quarterback driven league and last I checked, Philip Rivers is still one of the highest rated qb’s as well as douche faces in the NFL.

Steelers (10.5 wins)

Dre – Over.  By plenty.  The Steelers will again be the class of the North, with their only competition coming from the Ravens twice, Pats and Colts.  Otherwise they match up with the NFC West this year, not tough at all.

Chappy – Over, their schedule starts off a little tough, but after week 9 against Baltimore, they might be able to win their last six games without much challenge. I guess we’ll know if this prediction is going to workout by mid-season.

By – Over.  I dislike the Steelers.  They have more Lombardi Trophies than the 49ers, so I was uberly excited when they fell short to Green Bay in the Super Bowl last season, add to that it was to Cal’s Finest, woot woot!  But let’s face it, the Steelers aren’t going anywhere and if anything, they’re even more motivated to return to the top.

Colts (9.5 wins)

Dre – Over.  I wish I could say Peyton’s health could be an issue, and while it’s his neck and not legs he’s rehabbing, he’ll be out there by the second week of September to lead the Colts to victory.  He’s Peyton Manning.  Nuff said.

Chappy – Over, I don’t think a Peyton led team has won less than 10 games in a good decade. I’ll give it to them on that fact alone.

MCeezy – Over. The lockout is going to help the Colts as much as anyone. They’ve never been the best team on paper, but always know how to execute and get the job done. Manning’s discipline alone will probably carry the team to 12 wins.

By – Over.  Yes the Colts don’t seem to be the sexy pick anymore, but on the strength of Peyton Manning alone, over.

Ravens (10.5 wins)

Dre – Over.  I truly believe the Ravens will get the Steelers this year.  Another easy schedule, like the Steelers, but the Ravens have a chip on their shoulder after the playoff loss to their rival.  Either way, they’ll probably match up again in the divisional round.

Chappy – Under, They cleared a bunch of cap space, but didn’t do anything with the money. This fairly old defense has to break down eventually right? I wonder if the crime rate will go up as a result of them losing more games than last season?

MCeezy – Over. Let’s hope so at least. I’d hate to see a mellow Ricky Williams forced to endure evil, which we call crime.

By – Under.  I like the Ravens, I really do, but their window has closed.  Or I should say, Pittsburgh never let them open it.  Baltimore will still be a force to be reckoned with throughout the league, but they’ll also still play second fiddle to the black and yellow up North.

Titans (6.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  A gigantic question mark at QB is not the way to start a season, with Hassel’s back giving out periodically and a rookie who doesn’t know how to run out of bounds or slide to avoid contact.  Should be an exciting year in Tennesse.

Chappy – Under, Chris Johnson is holding out. I can barely name anyone else on their team outside Finnegan and his fight night attitude. Hasselbeck should’ve stayed in Seattle imho.

By – Under.  Chris Johnson is holding out.  Even if he does sign, the Titans have no threat at wide receiver to keep defenses honest.  Well, I take that back, there’s potential, but still.  Like Chappy said, I can’t really name any other player on this team aside from the aforementioned.  That usually means a losing record.

Dolphins (7.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  Four losses within the division to start.  Then a tough schedule after that, with an unproven QB and a rookie RB taking the ball.  Marshall will be ineffective, and the addition of Reggie Bush will be a bust.  Yeah I said it.

Chappy – Under, replacing Ronnie Brown and Rickey Williams with Reggie Bush isn’t the recepie for success. I do like the Marshall and Bess combo in the recieving core, but that isn’t enough in such a tough division.

MCeezy – Under. The Dolphins seemed like they were on the way back to contention, but I’m just not convinced they’ll be able to gel on the field this year. Unless, Jason Taylor has one more great season up his sleeve.

By – Under.  Pretty much what Dre said, although I do like Marshall to be a little better than “ineffective” but not by much.  Perhaps the term “somewhat useful” works better for me.

Texans (8.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  Shouldn’t this line be 8 even?  Everyone knows this is an 8 win offense and an 8 loss defense.  I didn’t see enough in the additions of Joseph and Manning to the secondary to change that.

Chappy –  Over, even though they didn’t improve this porous defense, they have a relatively easy schedule, so I see them topping 9 win mark. This might be one of my least confident picks.

By – Over.  Why do I always fall for the Texans Pre-Season hype?  This year there isn’t as much hype, but still, new season, same story for me.  I just really like Houston’s offense.  If Houston’s offense had a Facebook page, I would become a fan of it and like it.  I hope it’s enough to squeeze out 9 wins.

Jets (8 wins)

Dre – Over.  This seems pretty low considering the success this franchise has had the past two years.  They didn’t lose a lot on offense, besides Braylon’s droppsies, and their defense is oh so strong.

Chappy – Over, I’m sure Rex is pissed at this win loss prediction that Vegas gave them. I almost went for a push with this one, but I bet they will be better than a .500 team. At least they have the AFC West on their schedule this year.

MCeezy – Over. How are they going to go back to .500 after such a solid year last season. We saw what Michael Vick did for Philly last year fresh out of jail, you mean to tell me adding Plaxico won’t propel them to an AFC East title this year?

By – Over.  Not sure why the o/u is so low on this one, didn’t the Jets make the AFC Championship Game last season?  They’ve only gained experience since then, and this team really responds to Rex Ryan and his antics.  They might get swept by the Pats in the division this season, but 9 wins shouldn’t be too difficult for Gang Green.

Bills (5.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  The Bills are still the Bills. Tough schedule this year between their division games and being matched up with the NFC east.  Add on the Chargers and Chiefs, and it’s not looking promising.

Chappy – Under, I don’t even know what direction this team is going, but it’s not up. Being in the strongest division in the league won’t help them one bit either.

MCeezy – Under. The Bills are the equivalent of a triple-A team in the NFL. Nick Barnett and Shawne Merriman would have formed an amazing LB duo, but I’d prefer to have Poluzsny. I just can’t believe Lee Evans is still there. Is he the longest tenured player in Buffalo since Andre Reed?

By – Under.  They can only compete with one team in their division, and that one team is still better than them.  Add to that, they’ve got tough out of division match ups, and a 5 win season would be something to celebrate in Buffalo.

Browns (6.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  Even being matched up with the NFC West won’t help as they’d be lucky to split.  Their division is rough, and their veteran QB likes to give the ball back to the other team.  No Bueno.

Chappy – Over, They did some good things last year, and I think they will improve again. They play the AFC and NFC West this year, which should help them get to 7 wins on the season.

By – Under.  I do believe in the Madden curse.  If anything happens to Peyton Hillis, the Browns are in big trouble.

Broncos (5.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  I hope Kyle Orton keeps his job, but either way I don’t think the Broncos have enough talent to get past their own division and a tough rest of schedule.  No defense is not how to win games, even with a nice draft on that side of the ball.

Chappy – Under, I’m iffy on this pick, as I think the return of Elvis Dumervil will help them a lot on defense where they were terrible (up front), but that won’t be enough unless the Tebow issues get sorted out.

MCeezy – Over. I hope, for the Raiders’ sake, it’s the under, but I think Denver rebounds from a disappointing season, and Kyle Orton plays with a little extra fire, after many wrote him off before training camp. I also think John Fox has a rejuvenating year and guides this team back to the playoffs.

By – Under.  Despite Kyle Orton being the firm starter at quarterback, if adversity arises, the fans will be calling for #15, as they should!  Give Tim Tebow the damn ball and let him lead you to the promise land Denver!  Since I don’t see that happening soon, Denver won’t be visiting any promise lands soon.

Jaguars (6 wins)

Dre – Push.  Another QB situation up in the air.  Will they let David Garrard go out there before they hand the keys over to their 1st round pick Gabbert?  Is MJD completely healthy?  If so, they get to 6 wins. Otherwise they will be drafting very high next season.

Chappy – Under, Any team on the brink of moving doesn’t seem to do that well. They were a nice story last season, but this year their schedule is much tougher. I feel like MJD is going to get hurt this year too…

By – Push.  6 wins hinges on Pocket Hercules’ health.  If he stays healthy, the Jags can get to 6 wins, despite being in a very tough division.  Big question is will David Garrard finish the season as the starting quarterback, or will future cornerstone Blaine Gabbert take over?

Chiefs (7.5 wins)

Dre – Over.  The Chiefs are up and coming, and they have made strides on both sides of the ball.  Their defense improved at each level, and their passing attack may comes close to rivaling their great running game.  They will be better than .500.

Chappy – Under, I wouldn’t be shocked if I got this pick wrong. They have a great running game, and their special teams is second to none. Like I said with the Chargers, the AFC West has a tough schedule this year outside the division.

MCeezy – Over, but when I say over, I mean 8 wins. Last year was huge for the Chiefs, and they’ve kept their roster mostly intact. It’s too bad Mike Vrabel retired, but the additions of Steve Breaston and Le’Ron McClain should give them some much needed depth.

By – Under.  What the Chiefs did last season was amazing, great turn around for a historic franchise.  I’m just not ready to believe they are legit.  I hope they prove me wrong, they have great pieces in place and are exciting to watch at times.  

Raiders (6.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  Sorry Raiders fans, but still no solid passing game (Campbell, really?) means regular 8 man fronts to stop Run DMC.  Everyone was shocked to see the Raiders have success last year.  There will be no shock this year, don’t worry.

Chappy – Over, obviously this a “hoping/homer” pick. They won 8 games last year, and even though they lost Nnamdi, the Raiders were 2-2 in games he didn’t play due to injury. Hue Jackson has the respect of this team, so hopefully he can take advantage of it.

MCeezy – Over. They lost their two most productive players in Nnamdi Asomugha and Zach Miller, but it’s a team game, and Hue Jackson seems poised to have the Raiders playing like a team once again. Richard Seymour led the defense last year, and he’s back. Darren McFadden has a broken face, but there’s no way he doesn’t come back strong this year, as he enters the prime of his career.

By – Under.  Sorry Chappy, sorry Matt.  Don’t worry, I’ll be much more cruel to my Niners.  Just don’t see anything positive going on for the Raiders. 

Bengals (5.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  This could be a sad year in Cincy.  I’m not sure what Carson Palmer is thinking.  Guess he’s just a quitter.  They are in a tough division and their schedule isn’t that bad, but they seriously downgraded at QB and their stud rookie WR AJ Green will go mostly unused.

Chappy – Under, this feels like a lock, although getting Ochocinco’s side show away from the team might help. The fact remains they are a team stuck in reverse.

MCeezy – Over. I don’t know what to make of this team, but just for the sake of argument, I’ll say they reach 6-8 wins. Most people see the loss of Ochocinco, and a huge dark cloud of uncertainty around Carson Palmer. On the flipside, they’ve also had an aggressive offseason, adding guys like Nate Clements, Bo Scaife, Thomas Howard, and Manny Lawson.

By – Under.  It seems impossible for a team to succeed when the players act like they don’t want to be there.  Well in the case of Carson Palmer, there is no acting involved!  A dysfunctional situation in a black and blue division leads me to believe the Bengals will have very few dubs this season.

Doin Divisional Lines

0-2 on Saturday 2-0 on Sunday. I’ll take it since I hit one parlay at least. Wild card weekend is always fun, but the real matchups start in the Divisional round, and what better way to have it play out than two games with divisional rivals! Stat of the week for the divisional round. The home teams are 10-10 in the divisional round over the last five years. So, I guess I have to take two road teams this week to keep that trend going. I’m loving all the trash talking going on this week, which just gives us a few more things to watch over the weekend.

2-2 last week, not bad, but I could do better.  I do feel I deserve some bonus points for predicting the Seattle upset. Anyway, as Jay-Z would say “On to the next, on on to the next one”.


Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-3)

Chappy picks Baltimore (+3). I’ve been leaning on the Ravens and Steelers all season with my picks, and have declared it the best division in football from time to time. It’s really a coin flip when these two teams hook up, because they are basically the same team built the same way. I honestly think the Steelers will win, but I usually pick this match up wrong, so this time I’m going with the team that’s getting points. The road team won both games this year when they matched up, so I’m hoping that trend continues with this pick. If Polamalu is the Steelers best player, and he isn’t 100% then I feel like it might be one of those injuries that makes him ineffective. Kind of like when Freeney was hurt in the Super Bowl last year. He was on the field, but not really there, which is a huge blow to the heart of the D. I’m going to go out on a limb and say this is the first time we see the new overtime rules tested.

By picks Baltimore (+3). This is the first of three tough match ups this weekend (not including the spread), can you guess which one is the odd game out?  Pittsburgh is a legit contender, and given the fact that they’re at home this weekend should be enough for me to pick them.  But there’s something I don’t like about the Steelers that I can’t quite get my finger on in this match up, and therefore I choose the Ravens.  Perhaps I just get the feeling Baltimore’s destined to make a trip to Texas come February, and I’ve done a pretty decent job with going with my gut instincts this season.  Also, I can’t root against a Harbaugh right now.

Green Bay @ Atlanta (-2.5)

Starks is the key on Saturday

Chappy picks Atlanta (-2.5). I think I’ll be rooting for the Packers in this one. Mostly because I’ve had a mini-mancrush on Rodgers for a while, but that doesn’t mean I think they will win. The Falcons are one of the few complete teams top to bottom. They might not be flashy or have a true identity like everybody wants them to have, but they get the job done. I think this is going to be a close game, and if the Falcons show any rust after having a week off, the Packers need to take advantage of it early. I still just can’t talk myself into Starks having two big games in a row out of nowhere. The Packers D has been great lately, but they haven’t faced as balanced of a team as Atlanta in a while. Turner’s running should neutralize Clay Matthews pass rush a little bit as the game goes along. The Falcons have given up 18 points or fewer and gotten two takeaways in all of their last four games. If they hold the Packers under 18 points, I see them winning.

By picks Atlanta (-2.5).  This is difficult pick for personal reasons.  I’m a huge Cal fan, as my girlfriend is an alumni, so Aaron Rodgers is among my favorite signal callers to cheer for, and aside from where he went to school, he throws a pretty ball, which I admire.  But for some reason, I’ve become a ginormous Matt Ryan supporter, and I can’t bail ship on him and the Falcons now.  Plus I still think the Falcons have too many weapons on offense to be contained over four quarters.  Atlanta in this one.

This isn't Qwest Field, Seattle.

Seattle @ Chicago (-10)

Chappy picks Seattle (+10). I can’t remember the last time I saw a double-digit line in the second round of the playoffs. I’m almost positive the Bears will win, because they know how to tackle better than the Saints, but feel like it will be somewhat close. The Bears like to keep games close with all those negative plays they rack up. Did you know that Forte and Cutler have combined for a whopping 134 negative plays!?! I didn’t until Skip Bayless just told me. The Seattle defense looked great against the Saints. I think they will look equally as good against a lesser offense. Take the points in this one even if you don’t really believe in Seattle.

By picks Chicago (-10). Giving up ten points in a divisional playoff game is tough, but two reasons why I think the Bears cover are:  A)  Seattle isn’t going to sneak up on anybody now and B)  They won’t have the twelfth man behind them in this one, which was a huge advantage for them last week.  In fact, being that they’re going to be playing out in the cold, I give Seattle little chance to crack double digits in points here.  Chicago big.

New York Jets @ New England (-9)

BB vs RR

Chappy picks New England (-9). Did I already say I loved the trash talking going on this week? Okay, just checking. Cromartie said he hates Tom Brady. When asked about it again he didn’t pull a Lebron and take back what he said, he re-enforced it saying he’s hated him since 2006. I guess I just like to throw in Lebron jabs where I can. Anyways, this game is the one I’m least looking forward to. Actually, I’m not really that excited about the Sunday slate overall, but hopefully I’m pleasantly surprised with some good football. This game should be cool if you’re a Patriots fan. Belichick always has his guys ready, and with an extra week they probably have a brand new playbook. Brady knows how to score points on the Jets, and with them missing their talented safety Jim Leonard, the Patriots will be hitting their tight ends all game long. The only way the Jets stay close enough to pull out a miracle is if they dominate the time of possession. I’m thinking a 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 ratio in their favor is their only hope.

By picks N.Y. (+9). Not sure why New England’s giving up nine here, are the Jets that bad?  Would the odd makers give the Colts nine.  Anyway, enough with the talk, let’s get it on!  I can’t wait for this game to start.  I do feel an upset brewing though, the Jets may talk a big game, but they’re also in a position where they have nothing to lose.  No one expects them to win, I mean they’re nine-point dogs for crying out loud.  Rex Ryan will motivate these guys come Sunday and at the very least they’ll cover.


Doin Wild Lines

6-0 last week. I can’t believe it took me all season to finally have a perfect week, but it actually happened! What was even better about the perfect week is that it put me over.500 for the season for the first time all season. It’s been a fun this year having By around to keep me motivated on making all these picks. Plus, it’s much more fun than caring about the Starbucks logo changing. Hopefully next year I can take By down!! Also, this week we were joined by Ryan Meehan from First Order Historians. I made the same picks over on his site if you want to check out even more reasons why I picked these teams check it out here.

I must admit, I’m a bit jealous Chaps had a perfect week, something that I was striving for all season long.  But I can’t complain about a 42-35-5 record on the season, the first time I’ve made picks in which I could reflect back on from a whole season’s worth.  It was real fun joining Chaps this season, and I definitely look forward to next (if there is one).  According to Roger Goodell, there will be.  But for now it’s money time, onto the playoffs!

Week 17 (Chap 6-0, By 2-2) Overall (Chap 48-47-3 By 42-35-5)

New Orleans (-10.5) @ Seattle

Chappy picks New Orleans -10.5. Is there any question on this one? Seattle shouldn’t be in the playoffs, and the Saints will show us all why. I understand that Drew Brees hasn’t had a career year, and has thrown quite a few picks this year, but you know what makes up for a subpar season? Winning in January. He’s shown he can do that, and I think he’ll open up a few big plays against a not very impressive Seahawks defense. Plus, the Saints have had the same problems as two other playoff teams during the regular season, injuries to the offense (Packers and Colts), but were good enough to still win 10 games. I feel like injuries were the reason the Falcons are widely conceived to be a much better team. Now, Brees has most of his weapons back at the right time, so we will soon see who is best, I think they’d play next round.

By picks Seattle (+10.5). What!?  I stated how much I hate Pete Carrol before right?  So why the contradiction here?  Why would I pick his team to win?  Quite simply put, this game can only head in one of two directions.  Either the Saints completely mop the floor with the Seahawks winning by some 40 points, or the Seahawks pull off one of the greatest upsets in playoff history by dethroning the champs.  There’s no in between in my eyes.  There’s no Seahawks lose a tight one.  And as much as I love Drew Brees and despise Cheat Carrol, I’m hoping Seattle shows some NFC West pride and represents our division well.  Otherwise the NFL might have themselves a BCS like controversy in terms of how they decide playoff participants going forward.  Seahawks have nothing to lose here, which makes them dangerous, I like their chances.

Meehan picks New Orleans -10.5.   The Seahawks ended the year with a -79 point differential, and to make matters even more depressing, lost every one of those nine games by 15 points or more.  Yikes.  Later on, I’ll discuss why this upsets me so much.  The Seahawks shouldn’t get their “12th man” advantage, because this game should be in New Orleans.  They didn’t beat anybody good and all of the good teams they played they got smoked.  Now, I’m picking the Saints, but I will say that if an upset this weekend has to happen it’s this one here. Prediction:  New Orleans Saints 32, Seattle Seahawks 15

NY Jets @ Indianapolis (-2.5) Continue reading


Doin Lines Week 17

Actually, "We'll" Be Back!

We made it through another season of picks, and fortunately now all we have left after this one is the playoffs which is much easier since there aren’t nearly as many games. I can’t lie, I thought I’d do better this year, and after last week’s ugly 2-5 there’s no chance of hitting .500 on the year. Oh well, maybe the new year will bring me better picks for the playoffs.

Happy New Year’s to all our readers out there!  May 2011 bring you plenty of success and happiness!  I went 2-3 last week, and I’m actually quite happy about it being that I was on track for an 0-5 week.  My main goal is to not screw anything up and stay above .500 on the year.  Then I’ll ride that momentum into the playoffs.

Oakland @ Kansas City (-3.5)

Chappy picks Oakland +3.5. KC doesn’t have much to play for. It looks like they will be hosting the Jets in the first round of the playoffs. Oakland feels like they have something to play for as they want to be the first team to sweep their divisional games and not make the playoffs. Great record to have I guess. Cable will be coaching for his job, and an 8-8 finish might just keep that in tact.

By picks Oakland +3.5. Being that K.C. has locked things up in the AFC West, the Chiefs don’t have much riding on this game.  I wish there were more at stake for this game because the Raiders/Chiefs rivalry is always a good one when both teams are playing well.  With that said, the Raiders would like nothing more than to end 2010 with a good win and look forward to 2011.  I think they get it done.

Miami @ New England (-4)

Chappy picks New England (-4). I’m scared the Pats will rest players, but going back to their (almost) perfect season they didn’t rest guys, so I don’t see them doing it this week. If this was in Miami I might take the points, but since it’s in Foxboro not sure how you couldn’t roll with the Pats. They haven’t really had a close game since they played the Colts in week 11, no reason for this one to be close.

Jacksonville @ Houston (-3)

By picks Houston (-3). Well Houston once again followed the same pattern of years past.  Fast start, slow finish.  It’s a shame a team with this much potential’s season highlight will be officially eliminating a banged up Jags team from playoff contention.  Pocket Hercules is not at 100%, and without him, the Jags can’t compete.  In fact, is Pocket Hercules even playing?  In fact, even if he was I still like the Texans by 10.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-9.5)

Chappy picks Cincinnati +9.5. This has been a terrible season for Cincy, but they do cover a lot of spreads. Last week they even beat SD without their duo of diva receivers. Baltimore is in no matter what, and has to count on a Pittsburgh loss to win the division. I think Baltimore wins this game, but when they pull all their starters Cincy works its way back within a TD.

Brett who?

Minnesota @ Detroit (-3)

Chappy picks Minnesota (+3). Last week convinced me that the Vikes are still a decent team when they have a QB that doesn’t turn the ball over. Can’t say I really knew who Joe Webb was last week, but after seeing him play Tuesday he looks like he could lead this team to another victory. They have a short week to prepare, and Detroit is on a two game winning streak, so they are bound to come back to earth. Plus the Lions need a higher draft pick, so no need to try this weekend.

New York Giants (-4) @ Washington

By picks New York (-4). Similar to last season, the Giants have had a bit of a let down in 2010.  They’ll win impressively this week, as the Redskins are along the lines of Carolina, woeful, but New York still misses the playoffs.

Carolina @ Atlanta (-14.5)

Chappy picks Atlanta (-14.5). This pick scares me. The Falcons could have this one locked up at halftime, and when they are up by 28 they could pull their starters which would give the Panthers a chance to cover. Fortunately Claussen is one of the worst passers in the league, and will save this bet with a few pick sixes to keep the Falcons lead growing. If there’s one guy that needs to have a good game its Claussen, to prove to the team that they don’t need to draft Luck #1 overall, but that’s not going to happen, and Luck will be the unlucky Panthers QB.

St. Louis (-3) @ Seattle

Hi, I'm Pete, please punch my face.

By picks St. Louis (-3). Well somebody has to win this s**t division, and St. Louis’ is as worthy as anybody.  I might have picked Seattle at home had Matt Hasselbeck not been injured, but without their leader the Seahawks have no chance.  Plus I hate Pete Carrol and would rather see the Rams do a one and done post season run than Seattle.  St. Louis by 10.

San Diego @ Denver (+3.5)

Chappy picks San Diego (-3.5). SD had the top ranked defense and top ranked offense for a good portion of the season. Do they want Norv to stick around. If they don’t I could see them tanking this game, but I don’t think they will against a division rival. SD doesn’t want to have a losing season, and they won’t let Tebow do what he did to Houston’s horrible D. Tebow gets pummeled, and everyone questions whether he’s really a true QB all offseason.


Doin Lines Week 16

I'm Rick James Bitch!

I'm Rick James Bitch!

4-2 last week has the .500 benchmark more reachable since week 3. Makes me feel all warm and fuzzy finally having back to back winning weeks. Between Christmas shopping, traveling, and all the other holiday stuff I don’t  really have a lot of time to think about and/or look at what is going on with a lot of these games with injuries and kind of stuff, so hopefully I’ve gained enough knowledge over the season to get me through this week without reading any previews, and go on an actual win streak.

3-2 last week, once again above the .500 mark which has been the norm for me as of late.  Like Chappy said, the holiday’s have gotten the best of me time wise, and aside from some news tickers I’ve read, I don’t know what’s going on in football as of late.  Going with the gut instincts again this week.  Happy holidays everyone from the Doin Work crew!

Week 15 (By 3-2, Chap 4-2) Overall (By 38-32-5, Chap 40-42-3)

Minnesota @ Philadelphia (-14.5)

Chappy picks Philadelphia (-14.5). Let’s see. Explosive offense meets a team that just got blown out by the Bears. This game might be a little watchable if Favre was in there. Actually these past few weeks when I’ve seen Favre on the field it was almost painful to watch. I have no idea why Favre is even still trying to play out the season when it looks like it hurts when someone touches him. I guess he’s a football addict. Anyways, this should be a lock for a 28 point win for the Eagles. They do everything better than the Vikes, and if AP is out still, there’s zero chance of them staying close.

Washington @ Jacksonville (-7)

Chappy picks Jacksonville (-7). Regardless of who the Redskins start in this game at QB, one thing has become clear to me. The Redskins are divided. This never bodes well for any team when half of them don’t want to do anything for the coach, and can you really blame them? I’d quit too, which makes me want to take the Jags who still have a chance to make the playoffs if the Colts slip up.

By picks Jacksonville (-7). This was not the season I envisioned for the Redskins after they acquired Donovan McNabb and Mike Shanahan this off-season.  I figured they’d be right in the mix for NFC East supremacy, or at least in the Wild Card hunt.  Instead, with the benching of McNabb and the “Fat” Albert Haynesworth saga, the Redskins have become the ugly siblings of the division.  They’re a train wreck to look at.  The Jags will most likely be without their “Pocket Hercules” this week, but I still they take care of the ‘Skins rather easily.  Bare in mind the Jags are still very much in contention for their division crown.

San Francisco @ St. Louis (-2.5)

By picks San Francisco (+2.5). It’s been a rare occasion this season, when the 49ers were not favorites.  This could be one game in which I wouldn’t be surprised if they were.  The NFC West is so god awful that if you had to place them in a college conference, they’d be in the WAC.  Because that’s what they are, wack.  With that said, the 49ers still have a chance to make the playoffs with a 7-9 record, and at this point, I think it would be funny if they did.  Troy Smith, the better Smith is back at the helm for S.F., which means we have a puncher’s chance.

Seattle @ Tampa Bay (-6)

Chappy picks Tampa Bay -6. Not sure why, but the Seahawks are still in the hunt for the NFC Worst. They probably wont even lose any ground with a bad game this weekend. I’m still not completely sold on Tampa, but they are about 50 times better than Seattle is. I think Pete should look into getting Baloo from Tailspin to check out this seahawk, because it been going downhill.

N.Y. Jets @ Chicago (-1)

By picks the N.Y. Jets (+1). What better way to show your support for your coach’s foot fetish, than to give the Bears a good ass kicking?  And to kick that ass, you need a foot.  All joking aside, this game has bore fest written all over it, unless you’re a fan of low scoring, unimaginative offenses.  The Bears do try to open things up on occasion, but they won’t have success this week.  Not against that stingy Jets’ D.  As far as the Jets offense, Mark Sanchez couldn’t consistently hit an open receiver if they were in a sparring match.  Yet, the Jets find a way to win close ones.  If the spread is -1 for Chicago, the Jets should win by 2.

Indianapolis @ Oakland (+3)

Chappy picks Oakland +3. The Raiders show up more when they are the underdog with less to play for. They can’t seem to play big when it counts. Call this one the shocker of the weekend as Jacksonville gets closer to representing the AFC South. Plus I’m a homer, and when in doubt go with your team when they are getting points at home!

By picks Indianapolis (-3). Sorry Chappy, Matt, and all Raider Nation faithful out there, but I don’t care if this game is being played in Oak Town, the Colts finally find themselves in the driver’s seat in the race for tops of the their division, and I expect them to put the pedal to the metal.  For what it’s worth, I believe the Raiders will put up at least 24 points against the Colts, and Darren McFadden will continue to beast it up.  But Manning and company will drop no less than 35 points against the silver and black.  Sorry buddies 😦

San Diego @ Cincinnati (+7.5)

Chappy picks San Diego -7.5. Easiest pick of the day. The Chargers rule December, and VJ looks like he has his swagger back. Who needs Gates right now the way this offense is moving the ball. Cincy is about as bad as it gets. The team By and I dubbed the most woeful in the league (Carolina) looks better than this bunch right now. TO is out for the year, so I see the whole team mailing it in!

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-2.5)

Chappy picks Atlanta (-2.5). No reason to think Atlanta can be slowed down now with home field on the line. The Saints have had as good a season as you can have coming off a Super Bowl win, but since they couldn’t beat the dirty birds in their own house I don’t see them doing it in Atlanta. I’m hoping for some offensive explosions from both these teams that seem to put up big numbers week in and week out. Is it weird that no body mentions Matt Ryan in the discussion for MVP? Sure his numbers aren’t eye popping, but he’s leading a 12-2 team!

By picks New Orleans (+2.5). I can’t believe I’m going against Matty Ice, but the Saints win this week.  Trust me, it won’t be anything Matty Ice does wrong, he’ll be the smooth, silky assassin he’s been all season.  I just think Drew Brees will be playing like a man possessed this week.  Division title hopes are still on the line, coming off a tough loss in Baltimore, Drew Brees has a lot at stake, and we’ve seen how he plays when a lot’s at stake.  This match will be the opposite of the N.Y. Jets/Chicago game, a high scoring slug fest.  Saints squeak by.