Tag Archives: odds

January 13, 2012

Doin Divisional Lines

By chappy81

Chappy: I can’t remember a first round of the playoffs that I did well in, and last week was no exception missing 3 of 4 picks. No big deal though, there’s plenty of time for redemption. Last weekend was somewhat boring for playoff football, but now it looks like we’re getting into the fun match ups. If you happened to miss Tebow’s pass to win it in overtime, here’s an awesome peanut remake of the play.

Last Week: By (2-2) Chap (1-3)

Regular Season: By (27-20) Chap (50-35-4)

New Orleans @ San Francisco (+3.5)

Chappy picks San Francisco (+3.5). I can’t really tell if I’m rooting for the 49ers to win or not. I have mixed emotions about them returning to glory while the Raiders continue to spiral in god knows what direction. That being said, if there’s a team that can slow Brees down, this is the team. I feel like the biggest match up of this game will be Sproles. If they stop him, they will be able to get the Saints off the field. If not, they might be in for the longest day their defense has seen in awhile. If there’s one thing I love about the Niners it’s their linebackers abilities, and Bowman and Willis will be able to cover Sproles and Graham. The 49ers are also coming in probably the healthiest they’ve been all season, which is another reason I’m taking them in this one.

By picks who else? SF (+3.5)  Obviously I’m a homer on this one, but without sounding too bias, I’ll state some reasons as to why the Niners might be able to pull this off.  #1 – We’re at home, we’ll have a blood thirsty crowd on our side, and I’m crossing my fingers it’s going to be windy/rainy as hell over here come Saturday.  #2 – We have the best defense in the NFL, and if the old adage holds true, defense is supposed to win championships.  I couldn’t agree more with what Chappy said above, and it’s the same thing I’ve been telling all my friends/family/co-workers all week, if we can contain Darren Sproles, we have a legitimate shot at slowing down the Saints offense.  I believe the Niners front 7 will get to Brees before deeper routes can develop, and if his safety valve in Sproles is locked up, it changes the complexity of their entire offense.  I don’t think the Saints score more than 20 against us.  The question is, will we get 21 against them?

Denver @ New England (-13.5)

Chappy picks New England (-13.5). Did Tebow really win throwing the ball last weekend? Do the Patriots really have WR’s starting in their secondary? I can’t see Tebow winning two weeks in a row throwing the way he did at the end of the season, not that I couldn’t throw against the Pats secondary, but I see God ending his sons magic run this weekend. The Patriots were the first team to make the “blueprint” on how to force Tebow out of his comfort zone (making him roll to the left), and now they have Josh McDaniels on their coaching staff they’ll know even more ways to stop him. Not sure why Pittsburgh didn’t use that template, instead blitzing nearly every down, but that’s beside the point.

By picks Tebow (+13.5).  What Tebow did to the Steelers THROUGH THE AIR last weekend was amazing.  I never questioned his ability to rise to the occasion, and do whatever is asked of him, but he took it a step further with his uplifting performance last week.  And it’s hard for me to think the magic ends here.  Bare in mind that prior to Brady taking over the 2nd half of an earlier match up between these two this year, Tebow and the Broncos were dominating the Pats.  Something fell apart for them, and Brady simply never released his hands from their throat.  The difference this time is, Tebow can throw!  New England’s defense couldn’t stop a leaky faucet from running, but now they have to play the pass too?  The dynamic of this match up has completely swung, and when all else fails, how can you ever bet against God’s quarterback?

Houston @ Baltimore (-7.5)

Chappy picks Baltimore (-7.5). I don’t know many people that really think the Texans are going to win, but will they cover is the real question. I am nervous about relying on Joe “I’m feeling disrespected even though I haven’t done anything in the playoffs” Flacco to win by more than a TD, but Baltimore is the perfect type of team to face Houston in that they can shut down the run even as good as Arian Foster is. It will be tough for the Texans to score, and still being in their first franchise playoff run, I don’t see them coming out on top. If Baltimore loses, I may never pick them again in the playoffs… Their regular season match up was a long time ago, I don’t see that factoring in the equation much because they had Schaub still as their QB.

By picks Houston (+7.5). Yes, I’m picking three, count ’em three upsets this week.  And yes, I’m not picking Houston to just cover, they’re going into Baltimore this weekend, and then flying back home to get ready to host the Broncos next week.  That’s an A1 BOLD prediction for you!  Really though, I like Arian Foster.  A lot.  And then there’s Ben Tate.  When you have a line, and two backs like that, it puts a lot of pressure on a defense, albeit a great one.  But this will be like a heavyweight fight, and what might be the difference in this game is who you trust more at quarterback.  Oddly enough, I already like T.J. Yates better.  Houston’s going to pound and pound away, then set up a big play action late to steal this game away.

New York Giants @ Green Bay (-7.5)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-7.5). If this Giants win this game, maybe I’ll believe all that they’re the same as the 2007 team crap they keep shoving down my throat. Until then, you gotta roll with the champs. The Packers didn’t look as good without Greg Jennings on offense, but low and behold he’s back, so I see them getting back to their video game type numbers. Will Eli be able to keep up on the scoreboard? Yes, but I forsee a Charles Woodson or Nick Collins pick 6 at some point to cover that spread.

By picks Green Bay (-7.5).  Yeah, yeah.  We’re hearing it from every angle from the media.  The Giants are clicking, and they’re resembling the 2007 playoff team that rode late momentum towards a championship upset.  Except this is mother f**kin’ Aaron Rodgers.  ‘Nuff said.  Pack win, and win big.

4 Comments   |  tags: , , , , , , | posted in Sports

November 10, 2011

Doin Lines Week 10

By chappy81

Chappy: Starting to get into a groove again with these picks, and so is By! Glad I picked mostly early games last week, because the late games were the upsets/close games. I can’t believe we’re over halfway through the season. Seems like it’s flying by. Pretty nervous for the Raiders-Chargers game tonight, and will not be wagering on it. Even with nobody on a bye week and more games to pick from there are a bunch of divisional match-ups this weekend and the lines are almost all in single digits, which could make it tough.

By:  Great week for me last week, in fact, due to a hectic work schedule, I wasn’t able to write up a quick blurb about the Bengals/Titans match up, in which I would have picked Cincy. Should have had a 4-0 weekend.   Also, due to my own confusion, I wasn’t able to confirm my picks with my homeboy who doubles as my bookie, which led to me losing out on a little money.  It was the one downer of the weekend, but no biggie.  The crazy thing is, I wasn’t entirely confident on any of last weeks games.  This week on the other hand, I feel I got locked down.  With that said, on to the lines ~

Last Week: Chap (4-1), By (3-0)

Overall: Chap (25-17-3) By (21-14)

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-1)

By picks New Orleans (+1).  Before I get started, I must say I like all of Chappy’s picks, all of which I am not getting involved in.  Which means you lucky readers will be getting our speculative opinion on 9 games this week!  Anyway, this NFC South match up is a tough one.  What’s not to like about Matty Ice and his career home record?  And being that the spread is only one point, the Saints would have to defeat the Falcons to cover.  But, if any team can do it, it’s the Saints.  Well them and of course Aaron Rodgers.  But the one thing I took away from New Orleans game last week, was a little more emphasis on balance.  Sean Payton elected to use his running game a little more than usual, even going balance within the balance, as three back’s got significant touches.  What that ultimately does, is open up the play action, which makes Drew Brees that more deadly.  I think the Saints get a big statement win on the road against their division rivals, and show who is top dog of the pack.

Houston @ Tampa Bay (+3)

Chappy picks Houston (-3). Is Houston the best team that barely anyone is talking about? The way I see it, they probably are the most complete team in the AFC at the moment. Their running game is second to none, and Schaub can huck it all over the field when he needs to, and they’ve done virtually all of it without Andre Johnson. Their defense has improved a ton in the secondary compared to last seasons last ranked in passing yards allowed awfulness. The Bucs have been up and down all season, and it’s always hard to figure out which team will show up between the competitive team and the play dead team. Will it be the team that beat the Saints? That team sure hasn’t showed up the last two weeks. Of all the lines this weekend, I like this one the best.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (+3)

By picks Pittsburgh (-3).  I know, I know, the Bengals are 6-2 and currently tied with the Ravens for the division lead.  There’s just one thing, they haven’t played the Ravens or the Steelers yet.  Well that’s all about to change this weekend, and let the light shine on the truth.  Now don’t get me wrong, the Bengals are legit, it’s just one of those situations in which they play in a division that’s a two horse race, and one of those horses just lost to the other horse at home last week on a last second play.  I think that horse is going to be mad.  Enough horse talk, quite simply put, the Steelers are going to lay down the lumber on the Bengals this week, no if’s, and’s or but’s about it.

Denver @ Kansas City (-3)

By picks Kansas City (-3).  I’m the biggest Tebow believer/supporter/follower there is, but there’s no way I can look at anyone with a straight face and say that Tim Tebow won that game last week in Oakland.  Sure he did some nice things, but the Raiders lost it themselves.  The AFC West is as tight a race as they come past the half way point of the season, and to me, the two best teams are still the Raiders and Chargers, but the Chiefs are right there in it, despite their 0-4 start.  Unfortunately for them, they thought they had a second bye last week, and never showed up to the game.  They can’t afford to get behind, so look for them to take care of business at home, and kill all the Tebow hype.  At least for one week.

Tennessee @ Carolina (-3)

Chappy picks Carolina (-3). Cam after a bye week had to learn a thing or two on what he’s been doing wrong thus far in the season, and that probably isn’t too much outside a bad decision on a throw or two. I’m not sure that this pick is so much that I think Carolina is a much better team, but more how I view the Titans these days. Hasselbeck has looked okay lately, but CJ300 hasn’t been getting it done, and leads the NFL’s 27th worst rushing attack. Looking through the games the Titans have won, they only beat crappy teams like Cleveland, Indy, and Denver, so I feel like Carolina should be able to cover the spread.

Baltimore @ Seattle (+6.5)

Chappy picks Baltimore (-6.5). I think Baltimore showed us all something last Sunday night, and that is Joe Flacco is actually clutch from time to time. That being said, I have a hard time seeing them needing a last second drive to win this game. Baltimore has been putting up big points during a three game win streak, and the Seahawks have only scored 28 points in their last three. It’s not going to get any easier for them as they face the 2nd ranked defense in the NFL. If this isn’t a blowout, color me purple.

New England @ New York Jets (-1.5)

Chappy picks NYJ (-1.5). The Jets seem to be plugging the holes in their rushing defense for the last three weeks against teams that can run the ball. I’m still not sure how confident I am in Sanchez, but ever since Shonn Greene stepped his game up he’s looked a lot better. New England has looked like crap for the last couple weeks, and I think the Jets D is much better than the Buffalo D that stifled Brady for a half. Is this the demise of NE? I sure hope so!

NY Giants @ San Francisco (-3.5)

By picks San Francisco (-3.5).  Far removed from the glory days are the 49ers, when finesse took to the air, and points were scored in abundance.  These Niners are about boring ball control, and smash mouth defense.  And you know what?  I love it just the same, because it’s working!  There’s a lot of buzz about how Alex Smith has improved as a quarterback, but in my opinion, he hasn’t at all.  Jim Harbaugh has simply placed him in situations in which even an idiot couldn’t fail.  Frank Gore in a walking boot scares me, but he said he should be good to go.  Our ability to score points hinges on him.  The one thing that’s scary in a good way is this Niner defense anchored by P-Willy.  They’re so good, they could tango with the AFC North.  And they’ll get their chance during Thanksgiving.  For now they’ll show Eli Manning what it’s like to feel pressure, and despite his impressive come back at New England last week, Manning was throwing against a poor secondary.  No miracle catches by a #85 will save him this week.  #NinerFaithful

Minnesota @ Green Bay (-13.5) 

Chappy picks Green Bay (-13.5). Picking five favorites has me a little worried. Not sure how confident I am in this Monday night pick either, but how can anyone pick against the Pack at this point. Rodgers seems to be playing better than Brady’s video game style season 08′ season, and is on pace to throw for over 50 TD’s. There is a big question about their defense as they seem to be getting gashed weekly by opposing offenses. The only way I see the Vikings covering is if they hold the ball for two-thirds of the game, and AP gets like 180 yards with three scores. I’m not that confident that will happen for AP, so I’m taking the pack in a blowout…

 

7 Comments   |  tags: , , , , , , , | posted in Sports

October 27, 2011

Doin Lines Week 8

By chappy81

Chappy: Uh oh two bad weeks in a row. One more and it’s a streak. This is not good, I don’t have any excuses since there’s no basketball to distract me during the week from making good picks. Who really saw Baltimore and Oakland crapping the bed as much as they did, not I.

By:  2-2 I’ll take it, but more importantly 3-0 on my parlay card which means I cashed in for the first time this year.  Hopefully the good times will keep rolling as I could use the spare cash these days.  Anyway, on to the lines!

Last Week: Chap (2-4) By (2-2)

Overall: Chap (18-14-3) By (15-13)

Minnesota @ Carolina (-3.5)

Chappy picks Carolina (-3.5). I find it amazing how much I’ve picked Carolina this year. At the onset of the season I didn’t see any way I’d actually pick them, but Cam has made me and everyone else a believer. I can’t wait to see Jarrod Allen try to bring down this beast of a QB, because he probably won’t be able to! Last week Minnesota actually made their game against Green Bay a good one letting AP off his leash finally. Maybe they’ll actually use him like he should be used (as the most complete back in football) Looks like they answered the big question on whether Ponder is a better fit to start than McNabb. Poor Donnovan’s fallen off faster than Culpepper did. Maybe he can join him in the CFL or Jamarcus on the retirement list.

Detroit (-2.5) @ Denver

Chappy picks Detroit (-2.5). I thought Tebow was impressive last weekend, but that was against the Dolphins, and only for six minutes. There’s noway Suh and Co will let Tebow dissect them, and send this team to three straight losses. Suh would rather knock the Jesus out of him in a dirty play than let Tebow run them up and down the field. Detroit is reeling after two straight losses, and while some have lost confidence in this team, I haven’t. I think the biggest blow to them was losing Javid Best, but since Stafford only had a small ankle injury and sounds like he’s going to play I have confidence in the Mega-Staff connection to beat a Denver that is all of a sudden over-rated. Detroit gets back to their winning ways convincingly.

By picks Detroit (-2.5).  And hell shall freeze over.  By is going against Timmy Tebow.  I can’t believe it myself, but despite orchestrating a remarkable comeback at Miami last week, there’s no way to disguise the fact that he did it against, well, Miami.  The Dolphins suck.  Detroit is not Miami.  Now the Lions haven’t exactly been looking like world beaters themselves, losing two straight at home despite a raucous crowd that forces a hundred false starts every week, but they’re not as bad as this losing streak suggests either.  Both the 49ers and Falcons are admirable opponents, and missing Jahvid Best hurt the Lions versus Atlanta, hopefully he’s back this week.  But really, this game hinges on the availability of Matthew Stafford, who is day-to-day and should be good to go, and that being the case, I think Detroit pulls through in a close game, winning by a touchdown.

New Orleans (-13) @ St. Louis

Chappy picks New Orleans (-13). It seems like New Orleans usually has a letdown after a huge scoring output like last weeks college football score, but the Rams haven’t shown as much life as the Jags this year, which is saying something. The Rams struggle at stopping the run as they rank dead last in stopping it, so I see a big game from Sproles, Ingram, and Thomas. Especially after they get up by a couple of scores. Atleast the Rams can look forward to week 9, when their schedule finally gets easier, and they play some teams that they might be able to work themselves into the win column.

Cincinnati (-3) @ Seattle

Chappy picks Cincinnati (-3). Did the Seahawks really play a 6-3 game last weekend against the Browns and lose?!? There weren’t weather issues, it was just straight ugly. Cincy had a bye week, and actually looks like a good team, and even with this game being in Seattle I would think this line would be little higher. I’m taking AJ Green to score more than the 9 total points that Seattle and Cleveland put up last weekend. Cedric Benson is serving his one game suspension, but then again that might be a good thing to get the old man out of the lineup, and put some guys in who can actually break away.

By picks Cincinnati (-3).  The Bengals have been one of the surprise teams this season, but they’ve done so flying under the radar.  Andy Dalton has proven to be a serviceable quarterback with solid upside, but to compose himself the way he has as a rookie is quite impressive.  He reminds me of a young Matt Ryan in terms of his calm state of being on the field.  Cincy’s offense doesn’t exactly jump off the page in terms of explosiveness, but with AJ Green running their routes, the Bengals are a threat to score on any given play.  But it’s their defense that’s been so impressive this season, yielding one of the best overall units.  Combine all the above, along with the fact that Seattle isn’t very good, and I predict a Cincy win by at least 7.

Dallas @ Philadelphia (-3.5).

Chappy picks Philadelphia (-3.5). There’s only one reason I’m taking Philly, and it’s because Andy Reid is 12-0 after his teams’ bye week. Yeah, it’s been a rocky year for Philly, but I feel like they are probably healthier and their defense has to be better than it was in the first six games getting some extra practice in. They added a lot of new pieces, and I think they’ll start to gel more this weekend. Nnamdi, Rodgers-Cromartie, and Samuel will be able to pick off Romo at least a couple of times. Plus, Vick with some extra rest is never a good thing for opposing defenses. 

By picks Philadelphia (-3.5).  I can’t stress enough how big of a win it was for Philly, when they beat the Redskins two weeks ago, as it reignited their confidence heading to their bye.  Now they play host to the vulnerable Dallas Cowboys, who in my opinion are one of the most overrated teams in the league, and are actually worse than what their record indicates.  Yes DeMarco Murray went off last week, and yes he set a new Cowboys rushing record, but he did so against the St. Louis Rams.  While still impressive, it takes away some of the pop, just like how Tebow’s comeback win wasn’t as great because of who he beat.  Ultimately it boils down to this, until Tony Romo can make the right decisions consistently, I will not trust the Cowboys, especially against a Eagles team that’s about to peak.  Eagles big.

San Diego @ Kansas City (+4)

By picks San Diego (-4).  This is tough.  Kansas City is coming off a big win against the best team in their division, at their home.  Plus whenever the Chargers and Chiefs meet up, it’s usually an all out battle.  But Matt Cassel barely scratched 150 yards passing, had no touchdowns and two interceptions last week.  If not for such a weird set of circumstances surrounding the Chiefs/Raiders game last week, Matt Cassel would have probably cost Kansas the game.  That won’t fly against San Diego, even if they’re at home.  Plus, you know the Chargers want to make amends for not only blowing the game at New York, but choking on the two-minute drill to end it.  Chargers by 10.

2 Comments   |  tags: , , , , , , , , , | posted in Sports

September 9, 2011

Doin Lines Week 1

By chappy81

Chappy: It feels like football crept up on us quickly. It feels like just yesterday they were locked out and crying over spilt milk. Now that my fantasy teams are set it’s time to take a look at some of the bets to make this weekend to avenge my losing trip to the Del Mar horse races last weekend. I feel like week 1 is always the toughest to pick, and this year it feels a little tougher to pick with the extremely shortened offseason, and not knowing exactly where all the free agents landed. I’m looking for a bounce back year with my picks. I didn’t have a whole lot of luck last year which might have evened out my extremely successful 2009. Anyways we’re on to year three in the Doin Lines picks, and I think it’s going to be a good one!

By: Doin Lines is back!  Woot a mother f**king woot!  I’m so excited to yet again, give you all my idiotic thoughts, opinions and overall predictions for another season!  I really don’t have much to say as far as an intro to our picks, I’m just so happy and excited that football is back!  We all know the NFL is king in terms of sports ratings, so with that being said, LONG LIVE THE KING!  Glad the suits were able to get together with the hard hats and hash it out!  Now … let’s get this show on the road!

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (+2.5)

Chappy picks Baltimore (+2.5). Wow starting the year with a pick that I don’t really want to go with, but it’s going to be a great game, so I couldn’t resist. Anytime these two teams meet up, you know it’s going to be close. I feel like Big Ben might have his best season of his career this year, but that might have to start after week 1. I really like taking the points when (A) the home team is the underdog and (B) said home team is looking for some revenge from the season before. I’m scared of this pick because the only time the Ravens did beat them last year was during Big Ben’s four game suspension, but that won’t stop me from throwing them in a parlay.

Detroit @ Tampa Bay (+1.5)

By picks Detroit (-1.5)

It’s tough to pick the unproven Lions, who are led by an unproven and often injured quarterback to open the season with a win on the road against an upstart Tampa team, but … that’s exactly what I’m going to do here.  My mouth salivates thinking about all the weapons Detroit has at its disposal, from Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, to Jahvid Best (who is also injury prone).  If this team can stay healthy, watch out.  Aside from the potential explosiveness from Detroit’s offense, their defensive line is equally ferocious.  Anchored by the fiery Ndamukong Suh, they’re an opposing quarterback’s nightmare, just ask Tom Brady.  Plus, I have a gut feeling the Bucs are going to fall into the category of “one step forward, two steps back” from last season to this, and it starts with week one.

Chappy picks Detroit (-1.5). I think the Lions meaningless undefeated pre-season record talked me into this one. Yeah, I get it, preseason means about as much as my opinion, but I feel like Detroit is going to be good this year as long as Stafford can stay on the field. Megatron should have his breakout year pretty soon as he enters his physical prime. I was disappointed in Tampa’s offseason as they seemed to forget to spend some of their money when they had a ton left under the cap. I’m a big Freeman fan, but I just don’t see this one ending in the Bucs favor.

Philadelphia @ St. Louis (+6)

By picks Philadelphia (-6). Although the Eagles haven’t exactly set the world on fire during the pre-season, it is, still … pre-season.  Some experts now have Dallas as the favorites out of the East … seriously?  What has Tony Romo done to sway their predictions?  Anyway, this is about Philly and how they’ll dominate St. Louis.  As oppose to listing reasons as to why the Eagles will cover, I’ll ask a few questions.  Once you answer them in your own head, you’ll understand.  Who on St. Louis will stop Mike Vick, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek?  That’s to name a few.  Can you see how easily Philly can spread the field?  Now, does St. Louis have enough on offense to pose a threat to this stacked Eagles d?  Bare in mind, Nnamdi Asomugha will erase half the field. Not sure why the spread is so low, Eagles big.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland (-6.5)

Chappy picks Cleveland (-6.5). I have few rules with my betting in week 1, but this is one I’ve always stood firm by. Bet against any rookie QB starting their first game. This holds even more true after a lockout, and while I don’t have anything against Dalton, I don’t think he’s had enough time to guide this team to a victory in week 1, plus Cincy is far from a contender. Not that Cleveland is, but they looked pretty legit down the stretch last year under Colt (I wish the Raiders picked him) McCoy. If Cincy has a tough time scoring early, Cleveland covers easily.

Tennessee @ Jacksonville (-3)

Does this look like the face of a guy you want leading your team?

By picks Tennessee (+3). To be honest, I don’t even know who Luke McCown is, and I’m not even going to Google him.  He’s probably just keeping the quarterback seat “luke” warm for Blaine Gabbert anyway.  See what I did there?  If I stated Matthew Stafford is unproven earlier, then what does that make McCown?  And with that being said, that is why I’m going with Tennessee here.  It’s crazy how quickly people have pushed aside Matt Hasselbeck.  He may not be the Hasselbeck of 2005, but the guy can still sling the rock.  Plus there’s some good targets out there in Tennessee, Kenny Brit, Jared Cook.  Oh by the way, having Chris Johnson in the backfield is not a bad thing.  Long story short, the Titans load the box and force McCown to win the game, which he won’t.  Tennessee 21, Jacksonville 10.

Carolina @ Arizona (-7)

Chappy picks Arizona (-7). My week 1 rule applies twice to my picks. Always pick against a rookie making his first career start, and you can count on me parlaying the two rookies in the loss column. I have little to no confidence in Arizona, but of any team in the NFC West, for some reason I think they are the best. They should be able to handle last years worst team. Cam will throw a couple picks and Beanie Wells will run over their terrible defense. Yeah, I just said Beanie Wells is going to play well this weekend, and that will probably be the only time you hear me say that.

NY Giants @ Washington (+4)

By picks NY Giants (-4). This is a situation in which I’m not so much in love with one team, as much as I am in hate with the other.  Experts expect big things from the G Men, but I’m still skeptical.  Yes, Eli Manning is the best Manning right now, but obviously that’s by default.  To this day I don’t believe he has what it takes to win a Super Bowl, and that’s with him already winning a Super Bowl!  I know, it doesn’t make sense, right?  Yet, it kind of does, huh?  But the Giants have plenty of weapons to make up for a sub par quarterback performance where as the Redskins have nothing.  Literally … nothing.  ‘Nuff said.

New England @ Miami (+6.5)

Chappy picks New England (-6.5). Even though we’ve seen Miami hang tough against the Pats a few times, I don’t see it happening Monday Night. Bellichick had a whole off-season to prepare for this game, and that’s never a good thing for the competition. I feel like Brandon Marshall and Devon Bess could have big games after they are getting blown out against a weak Pats secondary, but that’s a crappy consolation prize. I’m pretty excited to see Daniel Thomas in the backfield for Miami, dude looked like he had some skills in college.

19 Comments   |  tags: , , , , , , | posted in Sports

February 3, 2011

Doin Super Bowl Lines

By dyslecix

Dyslecix picks Green Bay (-2.5). I just really like the Packers’ playmakers on a fast track indoors. They aren’t a huge run team anyways, and I think the transition is harder for Pittsburgh early, getting use to that indoor turf and style… And by that I mean the Packers got a taste against the Falcons already and as we saw, it suited the team pretty well. 27-21 Packers….with a big 4th quarter push from the Steelers who were down early….

Chappy picks Green Bay (-2.5). There’s  four reasons why I’m picking Green Bay. One, Charles Woodson. He is possibly my third or fourth all time favorite Raider behind Tim Brown, Bo Jackson, and Howie Long. Woodson forced a game winning fumble that should have gotten the Raiders into the AFC Championship game. Yup, still hate the Patriots for that game. Second, I’ve been rooting for Aaron Rodgers since he went to Cal. I’d like to see him with the real Championship belt on.

Third, I just don’t like seeing rapists succeed. If Ben had served a little jail time, I would forgive him a little sooner, but it didn’t really feel like he was ever punished. Four games, whoopity doo-da. I’m sure he found out a valuable lesson about hanging around college kids in BFE. Fourth, I’m no longer liking how good this Steelers franchise is. I get tired of the same teams winning over and over. They do play a fun brand of football though. Maybe I just want there to be another New Orleans type story even though I know it can’t happen. Wisconsin is nice and all, but the storyline isn’t quite as good. Packers win 28-23

By picks Green Bay (-2.5). I’m still uncertain as to why Green Bay is the favorite here, yes the dome and artificial turf can be an advantage to Green Bay’s speed on the perimeter, but we’re talking about the Pittsburgh Steelers here folks, they’ll adjust.  If I do recall, it was the Steelers who just won a Super Bowl two seasons ago.  Not much has changed to their roster since then, maybe except for the fact that they’ve renewed their hunger for another ring.  I’m picking Green Bay here because I’m rooting for them, but in all reality I don’t expect them to win.  I don’t care what the odd makers are telling you, Green Bay is the underdog here, and if I’m a neutral fan, I root for the ‘dogs.  Actually, I’m not that neutral, I’m a big Cal fan and so I’ll be cheering for Aaron Rodgers to equal Brett Favre in Super Bowl victories.  I like pointing that out too.  The fact that if Aaron Rodgers wins on Sunday, he’ll be tied with Favre in Super Bowl victories.  Takes away from Favre’s “legend”.  Also, call me a glutton for pain, but as a 49ers fan, I enjoy how much it hurts to see how successful Aaron Rodgers has become knowing we passed on him for Alex Smith in ’05.  It’s like pressing on a bruise to yourself.  It hurts so good.  The x-factor in this matchup is Green Bay’s defense, specifically their secondary.  For as much hype as Nhamdi Awesome-Muah (yes that’s how I spell and pronounce his name) and Darrelle Revis get for being shut down corners, Charles Woodson is overlooked.  This despite him winning Defensive Player of the Year last season.  Green Bay’s offense is going to struggle for a better part of this game against the vaunted Steelers’ D, but if Green Bay’s D can keep it close, all bets are off and Rodgers and co. have a chance.  Here goes nothing, Pack 21 Steelers 17.

MCeezy picks PITTSBURGH (+2.whocares) No spread needed… I think the Steelers will beat the spread because I think they’ll WIN. Everyone’s real high on the Packers right now, including me, but it doesn’t mean they’ll have success against the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s got too many big game players.  Green Bay’s almost there, but not quite. They’ll be back though. They will need to replace some receivers in the next few years, and they’ll continue to have a revolving door at running back, but they’ve got enough pieces in place to be a perennial postseason threat. This weekend though, will belong to the Steelers. I won’t be particularly thrilled about it, but I see the Steelers pulling away in the second half and winning decisively. Largely because my high school and college, and my beloved Oakland A’s, all donned the green and gold, I’ll be rooting for the Packers, but this one’s gonna be all black and yellow black and yellow black and yellow… Steelers 36 Packers 17

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December 3, 2010

Doin Lines Week 13

By chappy81

Another 4-1 week for me?  My confidence is so high though, that I dare call that average.  Chappy and I have had a pretty busy week with *gasp* work (can you believe it?) so we threw around the idea of “Doin One Liners” for the weekly edition of “Doin Lines”.  Basically, we state our reason for taking a team in one or two brief sentences.  I’m actually going to try this …

3-3 wasn’t too bad last week since I was sure I’d have a losing week, either way I’d say it was a better day than the guy pictured up top here. Like By said it was a rough week of work, so sometimes the blogging time suffers. Oh well, gotta make that paper to have some money to bet on these games.

Week 12 (By 4-1, Chap 3-3) Overall (By 30-26, Chap 31-34-3)

Buffalo @ Minnesota (-5.5)

By picks Buffalo (+5.5). Minnesota got their new coach a nice win in his debut, but now it’s back to mediocre football for the Vikes.  The Bills will win so Steve Johnson can start thanking the man upstairs again, instead of blaming him.  

Washington @ NY Giants (-7)

Chappy picks NYG (-7). They lost to Philly and Dallas, so I think they are due to put a hurting on a division foe, if they really are a good team that is. Too bad this stadium is not much of a home field advantage…

Denver @ Kansas City (-8.5) Continue reading

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November 11, 2010

Doin Lines Week 10

By chappy81

We're about to make it rain this weekend!!

Woot woot! 4-1 last week! My best showing of the year as far as I can recall. Too bad I ran out of money on the tables in Vegas to throw bets down on Sunday. Oh well, life goes on. It’s amazing how different this year has been in that, I don’t really care about my fantasy teams or my bets nearly as much as years past. I guess that just goes to show you that when my team (Raiders) are doing well, nothing else matters to me in the football world. I kind of forgot what that felt like, and let me tell you, it’s a sweet feeling I was missing in life! I still like winning money, so I’m going to try to follow up a great week of picks with another one for back to back winners the first time this season!

Congrats to Chappy’s 4-1 last week!  As for me, 1-3-1 doesn’t quite have the same ring to it.  What sucks the most was that I was extremely confident I would finally top .500 this season with last week’s picks.  I guess the only good that came out of it was that my suggestion on taking the Jets to win in Detroit actually helped Chris out.  Anyway, it’s back to the drawing board for me.  Perhaps I need a trip to Vegas …

Week 9 (Chap 4-1, By 1-3-1) Overall (Chap 22-26-3, By 19-22-4)

Baltimore @ Atlanta (-1)

Chappy picks Baltimore (+1). It’s rare the NFL Network gets a game that’s worthy of watching. Fortunately for them they drew a great one this Thursday when two first place teams meet. Will the Ravens spit on the dirty bird? I think they might, and it’s going to take a lot of loogies to pull out a victory on the road. Neither team has injuries, so this should be a great game with all the starters out there. This is a battle for the future as Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco try to prove who is the better QB of that 2008 draft class. Atlanta is 4-0 at home, but three of those contest came down to the last minute. I don’t see this one being any different except that they will finally be on the losing side of things.

By picks Atlanta (-1): What a dream match up between two title contenders.  This could very well be the prequel to the Super Bowl this season.  I like Joe Flacco about as much as the next guy, but I’m a big believer of Matt Ryan and his upside.  This game is pretty much a straight bet, and so the deciding factor for me comes down to which team has more weapons.  With Michael Turner quietly having himself a great year, and with Roddy White not so quietly emerging as the league’s best receiver, I give the edge to the Falcons.  Besides, I can’t ride them all year long to jump ship now.

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis (-7)

By picks Indianapolis (-7): I got it half right last week, I knew the Colts would fall in Philly, but I thought Philly would cover the spread.  Damn those odd makers, they’re really good.  Anyway, give Cincy credit last Monday, as they fought back valiantly to make it interesting against the Steelers.  But with Cincy on a short week, and with Peyton fuming from the loss, I predict the Colts make mince meat out of the Bengals in week ten.  Colts by 17.

Houston @ Jacksonville (-1.5) Continue reading

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November 4, 2010

Doin Lines Week 9

By chappy81


Last week I couldn’t quite get all the bad luck out of me before I head to Vegas this weekend. Going 2-3 did get some of that bad luck out, and I was very happy that the Raiders were one of the two wins. The Raiders have their biggest game of the season taking on the division leading Chiefs, but I’ll get to that pick later. Just like the Raiders my bets are a little more meaningful this weekend, because I’ll probably raise the ante on them a little being in Vegas. Unless of course if one of the homies  slips a Jeffery into the mix, then I might be rubbing fuzzy wall instead. Although, having Puffy chase us out of Vegas by mind f**ing us would be an ultimate story.

In honor of the World Series champions, San Francisco Giants (Still can’t believe I’m saying that), I went 4-1 last week, tying my season high for wins!  Furthermore, I lucked out during one of the toughest weeks in terms of football lines this season!  I have to say, I’m pretty impressed by myself!  Well enough gloating, as it is time to get down to business.  Week 9 is upon us, and I have an opportunity to break .500 this week.  I’m feeling more confident than usual, and I expect to hit on at least an 80% clip this week!  I guarantee it, Joe Namath style!  Or Rasheed Wallace style, what ever floats your boat.  Of course, that is, unless  a Jeffrey is involved, then all bets are off.

Week 8 (Chap 2-3, By 4-1) Overall (Chap 18-25-3, By 18-19-3)

Chicago (-3) @ Buffalo

By picks Chicago (-3): I’ve been dogging Buffalo all season long and it’s backfired despite the bagel that represents the total amount of wins the Bills have.  But like a stubborn mule, I continue to pick against them.  My reasoning for this sounds like a broken record, but this team isn’t that good. I know solid showings against the Ravens and the surprise Chiefs should have me thinking they’re better than what their record shows, but nope.  I just think the Bills suck this year.  Ryan Fitzpatrick to Steve Johnson does make for an intriguing combo, except for Fitzpatrick won’t start next year when the Bills take Andrew Luck #1.  Damn Niners, stop winning.  I’m not all that impressed with Chicago lately either, but three point dogs only?  I have to take my chances with the Bears and hope for a Matt Forte explosion.

New Orleans (-7) @ Carolina

Chappy picks New Orleans (-7). Did the Saints just dominate the Steelers? I didn’t see that one coming. I think their Super Bowl hangover might finally be wearing off. I haven’t seen Brees that sharp since last season, and it was against one of the best defenses in the league. He did what he did with a fourth string running back, and showed that maybe the Steelers secondary isn’t as good as advertised. The Saints defense looked great as well last weekend putting all kinds of pressure on Ben, and stifling Mendenhall and the Pittsburgh offensive line. Darren Sharper should be 100% for this one, so that’s just one more play maker to take the ball away from Matt Moore and the Carolina offense. The Saints only won by two in week 4 against Carolina, but since Carolina is the lowest scoring team in the league (12.1) it’s really easy to pick against them. The Saints look a lot better than they did the first time they met, I see fireworks this time. Take the Saints even if the line goes up to 8 or 9!

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-8.5) Continue reading

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September 8, 2010

Doin Lines Week 1

By chappy81

I’ve been impressed with the revival of Entourage this season. For the last couple of seasons, I thought the show was heading downhill, but this year they got Vinny on a drug binge, making bad choices, and dating a porn star. Excellent twist to what was getting to be a repetitive series. Speaking of things reviving themselves, and the true reason for this post, the NFL is bizzniizzzizzaacckk! This means that every team has hope again (including my Raiders and the overly optimistic prediction I made about them making it to the AFC Championship), but this also marks the beginning of gambling season, and the return of Doin Lines! Even if you aren’t betting on spreads, lets face it, there’s plenty of $10 bets thrown down on games amongst friends. I found myself enjoying keeping track of how I did against the spread last year, and ended the season doing surprisingly well considering I was way below .500 for awhile there, and had pondered giving up posting my picks out of sheer embarrassment. My comeback was strong, and ending 49-45-3 on the season, which made me want to see how I could do in my second year of keeping track. At points during the season, I was much more into making these picks correctly than keeping track of my fantasy teams. Not to say that I didn’t care about fantasy, but of all the fantasy seasons, football is the least attractive to me. It’s too much of a crapshoot, and everyone talks endlessly about their “squad”, which is more of a turnoff than a girl with a butterface. Instead of picking ALL of the games, we decided to each pick the top six or so games that we believe are either mortal locks, or very watchable. I did say “we” right!?! Well, this season, By has decided to join me on the adventure of posting picks, so I don’t feel like such an addict doing all these lines by myself! By also had a couple quick thoughts before we get started.

Before I reveal my picks, I must say I’m excited to hear that Entourage is back on the radar in terms of “must see” programs.  There was a point in my life where I looked forward to watching Entourage as much as I looked forward to watching a football game on Sunday, but then it slipped.  But from what Chappy just wrote, and from what friends have mentioned, Vinny addicted to hard drugs, Sasha Grey,  plus the return of Carla Gugino (who is one fine woman) equals the return of Entourage!  I have catching up to do …

Now, on to business … Continue reading

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December 24, 2009

Doin Lines Week 16

By chappy81

Last week left much to be desired from my picks. Going (2-3-1) is like watching the Raiders or 49ers play, they look good for a few plays, but by the end we usually met with disappointment because of our overpaid 1st round quarterbacks. I’m still happy that I’ve stayed over .500 on the year, because I’ve never kept track for a full season, and am now starting to know why I never really win or lose much on betting on sports. I’m (42-40-2) on the year, so hopefully I can finish out this season strong! As always the home teams are in bold.

San Diego (-3) Over Tennessee

Could Santa bring me two presents this year? A Lakers loss coupled with a Chargers loss would make my sporting Christmas! Probably not. I think the Titans are a solid squad, but the Chargers don’t do a whole lot of charitable work this time of year. They are an amazing 17-0 in December with Rivers at the helm. Man, that was tough to write, since there might not be another guy in the league I sports-hate more. I guess I’m still completely shocked that Norv hasn’t blown a late game decision. When will it come!?! I doubt it will this week, since they would like to give themselves a Merry Christmas by earning that first round bye as the #2 seed. I hope I’m wrong and Chris Johnson puts up 270 rushing yards to get him to 2,000 on the year, and helps Vince go to 8-1 as a starter on the season. Either way this should be a fun game to watch, and hopefully Santa will bring the Bolts a lump of coal!

Green Bay (-14) Over Seattle

Last week was a fluke at least I think it was. The Pack lost a tough road game to the Steelers in a game that Big Ben set career game records that I don’t see him beating anytime soon. I think after being thoroughly outplayed the Packers D will step it up this weekend against a Seahawks team that has regressed, even with very low expectations going into the season. I know that they are waiting to get out there and re-establish everything that was going right before their meeting with Pittsburgh. Why do the Seahawks keep giving the ball to a uninspiring Julies Jones over a budding star in the wings in Justin Forsett is beyond me. I guess Jim Mora Jr. is as clueless as we all thought he was. If Green Bay can’t roll up the score on this terrible Seattle team at home, then they don’t deserve to make the playoffs.

Cincinnati (-13.5) Over Kansas City

I guess I was wrong last week. Cincy wasn’t overly emotional to hang with SD. I think I make the outside factors out to be more than they really were. Thinking back to the worst times in my life, I guess it didn’t really affect my work all that much. Maybe I might not have wanted to be there, but I still did what I needed to do just like the Bengals performance. I think KC officially gave up on this year about week 12. They decided to start just letting teams score at will. Three of their last four opponents have hit the 40+ point mark, and the only game that was remotely close was against the lowly Bills where they still lost by 6 at home. I can proudly say that the Raiders aren’t the worst team in the division for once! I was happy to see the NFL didn’t fine any of the players that paid tribute to the fallen Chris Henry. If they had, the NFL would get three lumps of coal in their stocking from Chad himself! Continue reading

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December 17, 2009

Doin Lines Week 15

By chappy81

Last week wasn’t phenomenal, but it was a winning week nonetheless. I went 4-3, which keeps me above .500 overall (40-37-1).  I have to say, this past weekend was probably the least football I’ve watched in awhile. It’s weird how earlier in the season everybody was saying there is no parody in the league. Sure looks like it has evened out a bit since then! As always the home teams are in bold.

New Orleans (-7) Over Dallas

I haven’t picked the Saints for a couple of weeks, so I guess I’m due. I’ve been weary since they went on their non spread covering ways for a few weeks, but last week I think they collected themselves and are ready to dominate again. They can pretty much sew up home field advantage through the playoffs with a win over Dallas. Plus, every home game they’ve played they have won by more than 10 points, which makes this a safe pick in my mind. Dallas on the other hand is dealing with waaay too much pressure, since they never win in December, and this game won’t make anyone feel better about the Cowboys’ chances. I hope they miss the playoffs. I’d love to see it at the expense of Romo as well whether he is engaged or not, it’s just fun to see him struggle! One of my favorite sports hate guys!

Green Bay (+2) Over Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is just like many defending champs, kinda bad on the title defense. I’m sure they’ll be back as contenders next year, but for now those terrible towels will only get used to wipe tears away after piling up five straight losses. If they can’t beat the Raiders or Browns, I don’t see how they could beat a good Packers squad. It should be an air it out game, Rodgers has been playing much better than Big Ben lately, so you have to take the Pack even on the road. These are the two top rushing defenses (Steelers are #1), so Grant and Mendenhall probably won’t get going. Without the Steelers main man Troy in there, I like Rodgers chances much more, that is, if they can keep him upright. It seems like they’ve made some adjustments to keep him from being sacked as much. They’ve moved the pocket, rolled him out, and are throwing more quick outs. Big Ben will have to deal with Charles Woodson, the consensus for defensive player of the year, and one of my favorite former Raiders. Maybe I’m a little bias in this one as Rodgers is starting for my fantasy team for the first round of the playoffs, but oh well.

Tennessee (-3) Over Miami

No way in hell he could beat Usain!

This should be a pretty good game. Henne is doing much better than I ever expected. Miami has been doing pretty good since their best player, Ronnie Brown, was knocked out for the season. If they want to have any hopes of making the playoffs, they need to win this game. The Titans winning streak was broken against the Colts last week, but I see them bouncing back, and getting back on track. Some had them as one of the best teams in the league going into the Colts game, and losing to the best shouldn’t make you jump off their bandwagon. I think Vince and Chris Johnson should be enough to beat the Fins. I do like Rickey Williams comeback story this year, but I think these past few weeks are going to take a toll on how he finishes the season, because he is old for a running back.

Usain Bolt Over Chris Johnson over and over again

For some reason there’s tons of people wanting to race Chris Johnson or see if he’s faster than so and so. It started with Rajon Rondo requesting a one on one race, and moved to Joey Porter saying his teammate Ted Ginn Jr. could beat him in a running race. Then having Ted Ginn Jr. be a no show for the race! What’s up with that!?! I wouldn’t mind having this happen pregame this weekend, it wouldn’t take too long. I’m not sure what the infatuation is with racing CJ is. CJ thought talked some trash saying that Rondo was just trying to get his name on Sportscenter, but he did say that he would race Usain Bolt, which I find pretty ridiculous! Usain will make him look slow! Continue reading

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September 24, 2009

Doin Lines Week 3

By chappy81

50 yard line moneyAnother week down in the NFL season, and I have little to show for it. This week didn’t even start off promising like last week did as I went 7-9 vs. the spread, and now am 15-17 on the year. I think there’s a chance I could be entering a Lamar Odom type state as he slowly realizes he’s tying the knot with Khloe. Whatever state of self doubt it is, I may have to reconsider continuing to post these picks publicly throughout the rest of the season. On a brighter note, I once again did good in my confidence games, and am now 9-3 on the season with picks that had a confidence rating of 4 or 5 on! This gives me hope, and has made me realize that I shouldn’t be picking every game out there. I have reconsidered, and will go a different route. Say goodbye to confidence ratings, and get ready for the six LOCKS of the week. I’m guessing there’s as good a chance I’ll have a few $$ on these games come Sunday.

San Francisco (+7) Over Minnesota

Patrick Willis Adrian Peterson 49ers Vikings

Cmon AP, I just want to give you a hug!

I like taking the points here. Minnesota has looked really good this season, but on the other hand who have they played? Cleveland and Detroit to jog your memory. This will be their first real test against what I deem a good team, and most likely the only team that’s remotely worth preparing for in the NFC West. The 49ers had a win against last year’s Super Bowl loser, and I thought they showed a lot winning that game on the road. I think they’ll do just fine in Minnesota, keeping it within a touchdown. I have a feeling that Patrick Willis will be spelling Peterson all day long, which could be fun to watch. Same goes for the other featured back (Gore) in his quest for a resurrection year!

New York Jets (-2.5) Over Tennessee

I’m not sure if the Jets are “Super Bowl” good as many media outlets seem to claim on the east coast, but their defense “the Rexecutioners” has shown that they are going to be tough to score on. I didn’t think I’d pick the Jeff Fischer lead Titans to go 0-3 on the season, but in a very hostile and fired up crowd, it’s going to be tough to convince me to bet otherwise. Although Tennessee has a great running game, I think they can be tamed the way the Jets did with Steve Slaton was in Week 1. The Titans are also in the midst of a four game losing streak dating back to last season. Mark Sanchez has impressed everyone so far, and put to rest Pete Carroll’s doubts about him being ready enough to enter the draft. I guess we now know why he wanted Sanchez to stay so bad, because USC doesn’t seem to trust anyone they have to be in there!

Detroit (+6.5) Over Washington

I don't think the coyote e-mailed Jessica with any tips...

Whoa settle down! I didn’t pick Detroit to win or anything, I just picked them to cover! This game has the same excitement level as Jessica Simpson losing her dog to a coyote. Washington went against St. Louis last weekend, and pulled out two point victory. I couldn’t believe they weren’t blowing out the Rams. The Rams are dysfunctional at best, and just showed that Washington has no identity and no offense. I think Detroit will put up a good fight at home to try and put an end to their losing streak. I don’t think they will, but I see this one being close enough to take the points.

New York Giants (-6.5) Over Tampa Bay

I’ve never given Eli much credit even though he’s won a Super Bowl, and going into this season I still viewed him as mediocre. This season everyone was to saying how he’s going to have a bad season, because he has no recievers. I’ve been very impressed with how well Manningham and Smith have played for him. If you look at it more closely is it really the recievers or is Eli really that good? As for the Buccaneers, they are the worst they’ve been since before the Tony Dungy era.  They are in the midst of a six game losing streak dating back to last year. I don’t see the bleeding stopping this weekend, and forsee TV blackouts for Bucs fans in the near future!

Chicago (-2.5) Over Seattle

Jay Cutler Bears hit

Cutler getting the insulin knocked out of him.

Seeing this line raise a point over the last day and a half has me convinced that the Bears are the right pick. With Hasselbeck hurting his ribs for a second straight season, I have a hard time picking them especially after getting pounded by San Francisco last weekend. The Seahawks just aren’t a good team, and I don’t see how changing to the Jim Mora Jr. Era will make things better. It seems like Cutler is getting some fluidity with his receivers as he showed the Bears faithful the kind of a Pro Bowl QB they traded for pulling out a win from the defending champs last week!

Oakland (+1.5) Over Denver

I don’t really like picking this game, because I’m not a fan of betting on my own team and jinxing them. Seriously though, how can I curse the Raiders any more than they already are. They already lost a game to the catch or no catch rule that was analyzed by David Flemming as a catch when other catches this season weren’t ruled incomplete. The Broncos got lucky against the Bengals in week 1, and followed that up with a strong performance at home against Cleveland. I think on the road it’ll be another nail biter. The Raiders looked good in their first game and lost, looked bad in their second game and won. I don’t know what to expect from their offense, but I have a feeling that their recievers that torched them last year, won’t have that same success this time around!

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September 16, 2009

Doin Lines Week 2

By chappy81

Chalk Lines FootballOne week of the NFL season is in the books, and I could have sworn going into Monday Nights games with an 8-6 record vs. the spread I would come out with a winning week. Low and behold neither were blowouts, and I’m 8-8. I’ve always believed that the NFL is nearly impossible to win bets on a consistent basis. I guess it’s that way for pretty much any other sport too, unless you count the NBA in a Donaghy officiated game. As our blog mate (cali4dre) eloquently put on his post “Even the biggest underdog can rise up and play inspired football on any given week”. I felt good come out of the week going 5-2 on my confidence picks of 4 or 5. I’m glad to see the NFL back, and hopefully this is a good season! Anyways, here are my picks for week 2. It’s the same rules from last week as I will pick the winner, the home teams are in CAPS, and I will also give a confidence rating from 1-5 on how I feel about the pick.

Oakland (+3) Over KANSAS CITY

4, we live blogged the Raiders Monday Night game, and as a fan of the Raiders I have to say I was extremely satisfied with their efforts.Jamarcus Russell over throw There were so many question marks coming into the game, and unlike last year they showed up! Jamarcus will need to get past the, I hope this pass goes close to that wide open receiver, phase if they are going to ever get better. Kansas City played Baltimore tough, but if McGahee ran all over them, and I think McFadden and Bush will surely break off some big runs. Hopefully this can give Russell fewer opportunities to make mistakes aka wild throws. Oakland won in KC Week 2 last year, so I’m taking the points!

TENNESSEE Over (-6.5) Houston

2, this is a tough one for me, as I have a very hard time believing in Kerry Collins. I remember watching the post game interview after they lost Thursday, and he looked more dazed that Chong. He continually kept saying uhhh over and over in the interview. Pretty classic Collins. On the same notion I’ve always liked Jeff Fischer. Houston was disappointing at home against the Jets, and their offense will probably struggle more as they face a defense that brings even more pressure than New York. I’ll take my chances with the Titans at home!

New England (-3.5) Over NEW YORK JETS

5, Brady looked really rusty in the first half, but found a way to shake it off. I think this might be the game he breaks out in putting up the numbers that made him an MVP. Even last week in true lame Patriot form the ball rolled their way with a fumble, and all of a sudden they turned into 2007 Patriot mode. Is there any luckier franchise over the last decade getting those breaks?

The Jets, Mark Sanchez, looked very good in his debut. It had to have helped that Thomas Jones had a big day on the ground keeping some of that rookie QB pressure off Sanchez’s shoulders.Mark Sanchez Mexican Flag Mouthpiece I think Sanchez is going to need more than a running game and his Mexican Flag mouthpiece to take this one.

GREEN BAY Over (-9) Cincinnati

3, I don’t have much on this one, except I’m pretty confident that this will be won by the Packers in a major way at Lambeau Field. I’m always a believer that a team that is supposed to be a dynamic offense won’t struggle two weeks in a row, buy you can always count on the Bengals for the unexpected! If the Bengals can’t put up points against one of the worst defenses in the NFL (Denver) then how are they going to do against a pretty good looking defense? That’s what I thought…

Minnesota Over (-9.5) Over DETROIT

5, As much as I hate to take a road team at over two scores I have to do it. Detroit is the worst franchise in professional sports, and even a divisional rivalry game isn’t enough to sway me on this one.Adrian Peterson Stiff Arm The way the Saints marched all over the Lions should show signs that the Vikings should be doing the same. I would go back to the Monday Night games to re-think this one, but Detroit doesn’t have nearly enough talented players in this underdog story. On a side note, AP is on pace for 2,880 yards rushing with 48 TDs! I think he might even increase those projected numbers this weekend.

New Orleans (+1.5) Over PHILADELPHIA

3, With McNabb’s injury sounding like he’s probably going to be out, I’m forced to take New Orleans at this point in the week, even if it is in Philly. I actually think I might have picked the Saints either way with or without McNabb. The Saints weren’t all that consistent last year, but I think having a healthy roster is already making a difference.Drew Brees throwing And seriously if you had to pick between Kolb vs. Brees you have to put your money on Drew!

Carolina (+6.5) Over ATLANTA

2, I really don’t know what to expect with this one. Carolina played about as bad as you can last weekend, but they are a pretty good team. Atlanta on the other hand played okay, but showed some weak spots as they only had one drive longer than 50 yards. I think this one will be tight, so I’ll take the points.

WASHINGTON Over (-9.5) St. Louis

3, I was watching the Skins and Giants game when the Santanna Moss and Corey Webster scuffle broke out, and it made me smile. I think that was the moment I really felt like football was back! I can’t say I really liked the way the Redskins played, but they are going to play a terrible team in the Rams. The Rams seem to go backwards on offense, as they’ve racked up more penalties than the Raiders lately. Ten points is a lot to ask from the Redskins, especially since I think they might not take the Rams seriously enough, but in the end probably their second squad could probably cover ten…

JACKSONVILLE (-3) Over Arizona.

1, This game feels like a trap. I think Arizona might be pissed after their loss to SF, but do Jesus freaks like Kurt Warner even get pissed? I didn’t think so either, so I’ll have to take the Jaguars at home in this one. As you can see this is the first 1 confidence rating I’ve ever given, so to sum it up I really don’t care about this game.

SAN FRANCISCO (-1.5) Over Seattle

5, I really like this game. Seattle turned it over three times in the first quarter against the RAMS, with no consequence. They were at home, and failed to put up 50 which they could have against their horrendous D. I don’t think they can turn the ball over that much against anyone as good as the 49ers or a team at home. I’m not sold on everyone liking Seattle, because beating up the Rams is like giving up your spot in the drink line at the bar to a dude, it just doesn’t happen. I still wonder how much Crabtree could have helped SF out…

Tampa Bay (+4.5) Over BUFFALO

3, Can a team survive when their teammates house is being vandalized for losing the game? Can a team that blew a double digit lead on a short week come in fired up?Marshawn Lynch Stiff Arm My prognosis is, doubtful. They need a healthy Marshawn to soften up those coverages to get Evans and Owens some more looks. Tampa played decent against a good Cowboys squad. I think they could take this one from a flat Buffalo team. It’s my bold pick of the week.

DENVER (-3) Over Cleveland

2, This game has boring written all over it, and I don’t like to bet on bad teams. Even though the Broncos squeaked out a win, I feel like Josh McDaniels is coaching for his job already, and we’re only in week 2! I think he will deliver a win in their friendly confides of Mile High. Cleveland can’t even decide who they should have at QB as it took them until just before the season to pick between Anderson and Quinn. I almost thought they were going to change at the end of their game last week.

SAN DIEGO (-3) Over Baltimore

2, Not that I thought SD looked good last weekend against the Raiders. They seemed to sleep walk the same way the Patriots did through most of their game.Philip Rivers Crying pissed I think their home opener will be a win especially with the Ravens not taking it to Kansas City more. With Rivers temper is hotter than Derrick Jeter’s press coverage in New York, I hope we see Ray Lewis get into his head in this one!

Pittsburgh (-3) Over CHICAGO

1, Giving Da Bears three points in a home game. If there’s one thing we saw in their game against the Packers is that they still have a good defense. Another thing we saw was that Cutler might be missing something, like his receivers! One plus is Cutler won’t be having to scan the field with Polomalu roaming. I wouldn’t pick this game if I didn’t have to!

New York Giants (+3) Over DALLAS

3, New York wasn’t flashy last weekend, but they did show they could be very efficient. Their defense looks great with Osi in there again. I didn’t see any of Dallas and Tampa game, so that’s all I’ll say…

Indianapolis (-3) Over MIAMI

4, I don’t mind that Indy’s not the home team. They usually don’t let bettors down two weeks in a row. They will correct those drive ending problems they ran into last week, and put Flipper into submission. Has anyone else noticed there aren’t as many Peyton Manning commercials lately? I’m so happy that the networks got the hint! I mean he had a couple good ones, but how much does anyone want to see his face that much.

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September 9, 2009

Doin Lines Week 1

By chappy81

Chalk linesThroughout the season I will be try to predict the outcomes of the NFL spreads. I used to gamble quite a bit, and had good and bad times with it. I think I would’ve done better if I hadn’t gone for so many parlays, but that makes it more exciting. Anyways, I’ve never kept track over a whole season, so this should be interesting. The home teams are in bold, and the first team listed is the favorite. I will also be giving a confidence rating on my picks with a scale of 1-5. A one would be “I like me betting on the Raiders, because they’re my favorite team”, and a 5 would be “Parlay this one with any other 5 on the board” Without further ado here is the predictions.

Pittsburgh (-6) Tennessee

3, It’s going to be tough for everyone going to Pittsburgh, but Tennessee proved last season that they are for real with their 12-4 mark, but are a fairly big underdog against the Steelers. The Titans have pretty much the same look as last year minus Haynesworth. They should be ready to at least cover in this one, since I feel like this line should be around -3. Plus, I have a feeling the Titans will want to pull out everything they have to get a win off the newly crowned champs.

Atlanta (-4) Miami

4, I felt like the Dolphins were huge overachievers last season. They wouldMichael Turner stiff arm Falcons probably do fine in the AFC West, but in their division I think it’ll be a long tough road for them. Their first game is going to be in hostile territory against a team looking to see improvement through acquisitions and growth from their young QB. The Falcons should cover this spread with all the offensive firepower they have.

Baltimore (-13) Kansas City

2, It’s always hard to tell how crappy a team is going to be. I doubt that KC will win this, but can you really give a guy named Flacco enough confidence in covering a two TD spread? I didn’t think so. KC will kill a few bettors at the end of this game scoring some points in garbage time. They seemed to do that well last year even with Thigpen.

Philadelphia (-1.5) Carolina

2, this is a tough one. I don’t like it when the home team isn’t favored, but in this one I can’t argue. Carolina’s often stalling offense is always a roller coaster that I wouldn’t bet a replica ring on.Donovan Mcnabb McNabb has two weeks to prove he is the undisputed starter, so I like Philly taking this one either by a good offensive effort or Jake Delhomme choking it away.

Cincinnati (-4.5) Denver

3, With all the drama in Denver this off-season it’s hard to tell what is going to come out of the once proud franchise. Saying they are dysfunctional is an understatement, but saying Cincinatti hasn’t had it’s problems isn’t fair either. I don’t like any team coming off as many problems and changes as Denver had this off-season, and they won’t figure it out until it’s too late.

Minnesota (-4) Cleveland

5, Like I said before I don’t like road teams being favored, but I really can’t bet on a franchise that just named it’s starter today, Quinn. Cleveland didn’t make any upgrades and sorely needed to over the off-season. Minnesota should run away with this one. We could even see a chunk of playing time for Tavaris or a tryout from Anderson if Quinn struggles…

Houston (-4.5) NY Jets

4, it’s Mark Sanchez’s first start as a pro, and I have a feeling that he’s going to get acquainted with Mario Williams early and often.Mario Williams If the Jets had a solid running game or receivers that didn’t disappear, I’d give them a chance. Schaub is expected to go today, so as long as that stays the same I’m taking the Texans.

Indianapolis (-7) Jacksonville

3, I think it would be impossible to pick anyone but Indy at home. Jacksonville usually gives them a good fight, but in a home opener it’s going to be hard for the Jaguars to pull it out especially with their disappointing 5 win campaign last season. I think the Colts will start the season as they usually do undefeated with a convincing win.

New Orleans (-13) Detroit

5, The question is when will the Saints be up by 13? First half? First quarter? Watch the bottom line or your stat tracker to see just how many they can put up. I don’t see the Lions 20 game losing streak ending in week 1 especially in a tough environment.

Dallas (-6) Tampa Bay

4, Tampa Bay is in shambles after barely missing the playoffs last year. They are doing an overhaul with minimal talent, so it’s pretty hard not to like the Cowboys in this one. Dallas will probably run a little more smoothly with TO out of the way. Look for the Buccaneers fans to be one of the blackout teams soon.

Arizona (-6.5) San Francisco

2, I really don’t know what to expect from this one. I’ll loosely pick the Niners to cover.Kurt Warner Cardinals old Arizona had an incredible season last year, but I don’t see lightning striking twice. It was kind of funny watching Kurt Warner fall to late rounds in nearly all my fantasy drafts. That has to say something about their chances.

NY Giants (-6.5) Washington

2, it seems like the Giants start off strong and slowly fade away as the season wears on. If Eli had one good receiver, I’d probably bump up my confidence rating, but in this rivalry game it’s always tough to give a team nearly a TD. Washington just ends up being disappointing every season, and this year doesn’t look much brighter, as I see the Giants taking this one.

Seattle (-8.5) St. Louis

3, One rule I have is never to bet on crappy teams, because you never know what you’ll get. Seattle vs. St. Louis definitely fits that mold, and I can’t really give more than a TD to any team I deem crappy. St. Louis should make this competitive while they cover the spread.

Green Bay (-3.5) Chicago

4, I like the way the Packers look this year.Greg Jennings Packers Rodgers has a lot of guys to throw to, and proved that he is going to be a good starter for years to come. The Bears have issues on defense especially against the passing game. I like the Pack to set the division tone with a convincing win.

New England (-11) Buffalo

4, If Brady is indeed back to 07′ form, we could see the stats that only a QB on Madden puts up. I don’t really see the impact of TO on the field overshadowing the gaping hole left by Lynch in the backfield. I think Buffalo is a decent team, but they are no match for the Pats in Foxboro on opening night. There could be two Monday night blowouts.

San Diego (-9.5) Oakland

2, it’s never easy picking against your team especially when they are giving a TD plus, but the Raiders are starting to mirror the Timberwolves as their franchise spirals out of control. They have talent, but no direction. On a side note, I hope Gruden calls this game on ESPN, it would be nice to hear what he has to say about his former employer! Plus I caught him during a pre-season game and he was pretty funny.

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