Tag Archives: week 3

Doin Lines Week 3

Chappy: Last week wasn’t bad, but not that great either. If it weren’t for a few scores late in games to keep them closer I could’ve gone undefeated this weekend. Unfortunately the Vegas betting gods weren’t on my side, and I ended the week at 2-3. It seems like the oddsmakers are making it tougher on the betting crowd, because this week is tougher than the first two combined in my opinion.

By:  I told Chappy prior to last week’s picks that the lines were one of the toughest I’ve ever seen.  The result, brutal.  My first donut ever.  More so than the tough picks, I feel that all the bragging I did after going 3-1 during opening week came back to bite me.  If karma’s a b**ch, make sure that b**ch is beautiful.  Mine was hideous.  To the lines ~

Note:  My picks are off parlay cards, so the spread might be different.

Overall [Chappy (5-3-1) By (3-5)]

Houston @ New Orleans (-4)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-4). The Saints offense is rolling. They put up 30 on the Bears who are supposed to be underrated, then overrated, then back to underrated again. Looking up and down the Saints roster, it seems like Sproles might have been their best signing this offseason! The one thing I’m positive on, is that the Texans defense isn’t nearly as good as the Bears or Packers D. Yes the Texans rebuilt their secondary, but this will be the first time they truly have their hands full with a great QB. I see a lot of scoring in this one, but the Saints will pull away like they usually do in front of their home crowd.

Miami @ Cleveland (-2.5)

By picks Miami (+2.5)  I like what the Browns got going with Colt McCoy, he’s shown me a lot these first two weeks of the 2011 season.  But he did play against the Bengals and Colts, two teams who will not be contending for a playoff spot, so I can’t read too much into that.  Across the way, Chad Henne has done some nice things against two division favorites, and so despite a bagel in the win column, I’m still slightly more impressed with Henne.  There’s a big question mark in the Dolphins back field, but overall Miami has more weapons than Cleveland, and win by at least six points.  Plus how can you root against a guy who wears shades every single minute of the day like Tony Sparano?

Detroit (-3.5) @ Minnesota

Chappy picks Detroit (-3.5). Detroit has given me two straight ATS wins in two weeks. I can’t remember the last any time I’ve been able to say that. They pulled out an impressive road win over the Bucs in week 1, which gives me the confidence to pick them to beat a division foe this week on the road. McNabb looked slightly better last weekend, but we still know the one thing the Lions really need to worry about, AP. If they bottle up AP, there’s noway the Vikings win. Minnesota also has a weak secondary, so expect a big day from Stafford and Megatron.

By picks Detroit (-6)  In my main fantasy league, I told my friends I wouldn’t draft a quarterback in the first five rounds because the position was deep this year.  I took Matthew Stafford in the sixth and told them all I just got a second round pick with the selection.  They all laughed, mainly because that’s what we do when anyone of us makes any pick, but still, who’s laughing now.  Offensively, Detroit is a handful for any team let alone the lowly Vikings.  Megatron, Jahvid Best and even the underrated Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler present several match up problems in which the Vikes won’t have answers for.  But it’s Ndamukong Suh and the defensive line that automatically covers the spread.  McNabb has clearly devolved into a mediocre quarterback and AP can’t carry this team alone.  This game might be close early, but slowly but surely, the Lions impose their will on Minnesota.

Jacksonville @ Carolina (-3.5)

Chappy picks Carolina (-3.5). I don’t think Cam is the greatest thing since sliced bread like many seem to think, but I do believe in him more than the newly named QB of the Jaguars, Blaine Gabbert. He’s also better than I think nearly everyone expected. Hopefully he learned a few things against the defending champs last weekend. My rule of picking against rookies starting their first game applies to this one. Will Cam throw for 400 yards again? I’d say yes because this Jaguars secondary doesn’t exactly scare teams from throwing against them. If Carolina doesn’t win this game, they might be 0-6 before you know it!

By picks Carolina (-5). Camolina and company will finally get their first win under the Newton regime.  Again I admit, I did not think Cam Newton would be even remotely as effective as what he’s shown his first two games, but I am now eating my words.  He did throw three picks last week which was costly in an otherwise close game against the defending champs, but Newton’s been more than impressive nonetheless.  I feel the Jags are making the right move in starting fellow rookie Blaine Gabbert, but ultimately there’s some growing pains he’ll have to go through.  Not everyone is Cam Newton.  MoJo Drew will have his work cut out for him, but similar to the situation in Minnesota with AP, not one guy can carry his team solo.  The Panthers win, and win big at the end.

Atlanta (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay

Chappy picks Atlanta (-1.5). If Sunday’s late game didn’t convince you the Falcons are pretty good, then I don’t know what to tell you. Tampa Bay has a tough time stopping Michael Turner, I think he had a 200 yard 2 TD game against them last year (He was on my fantasy team). I like the Bucs, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to bet on them. I don’t even think having the Sportschump screaming his drunk ass off will help them overcome Matty Ice. Speaking of Ryan, it seems like he didn’t really get a lot of credit for leading his team to a comeback win, so big ups Matty.

Green Bay (-3.5) @ Chicago

Chappy picks Green Bay (-3.5). GB beat the Saints, the Saints destroyed Chicago = Packers winning by more than 4. I’m not sure why, but I kinda feel bad for Cutler. Did you see how many times he was laying on his back last week? Maybe the Bears need to do what Carolina is doing with Cam, and leave eight guys in to protect him. Usually these two teams play close games, but this feels a little different this year. The Bears are piling on injuries mixed with a little giving up on Martz and old age, which isn’t a good sign in week 3. I have a hard time seeing the Pack letting this game be as close as last weeks against Carolina.

Baltimore (-6) @ St. Louis

By picks Baltimore (-6). Similar to what happened last week when Pittsburgh hosted Seattle a week after being embarrassed by Baltimore, the Ravens will take out their frustrations from a disappointing loss on another NFC West team.  Baltimore definitely had a opening week hangover in week two.  The way they played against the Titans, is not the way you want to follow up a statement win.  I look for the Ravens to be angry as hell for their match up against the Rams, and with St. Louis possibly without Steven Jackson again, and leading pass catcher Danny Amendola, this game might get ugly quick.  I’m thinking 30-9, Ravens.

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Doin Lines Week 3

This week’s lines are brought to you by the legend Kenny Powers!

I can’t quite get to .500 on the season, and By fell just below .500 for the year. It’s always funny to see the games that you weren’t worried about go completely wrong, and the ones that you questioned picking, coming through without a hitch. I guess it just shows you how good those damn odds makers are, and just how much parody there is in the NFL, but they can be beat, and that shouldn’t be an excuse! Even if I’m more indecisive than all these head coaches are with picking a starting QB, it doesn’t mean that I can’t pick a winner, right?!? Now that I’ve completely lost you, I’m going to try to make this week’s picks without bias, ie. I’m not going to pick teams that I want to win! Rule number two for the week; if you see both of us pick the same team in the same game immediately pick the opposite way. We are 0-2 in games we both picked the same team; hopefully the odds will even us out soon.

Like Vernon Davis, I fell flat on my face on the guarantee to win ’em all.  I finished a dismal 1-2-2 last week, but honestly, I thought I came out better than that.  Philly was up big, and Oakland had St. Louis at home.  Those two should have been a lock to cover, but I check the final scores, and both teams let me down.  So this week I’m stepping my game up, not only more focused on spotting the winning lines, but I’m picking a career high six games!  So I’m giving you the quantity for sure, and perhaps … the … quality?  I guess we’ll find out come Sunday.  On to the picks!

Week 2 Results (Chap 3-3, By 1-2-2) Overall Results (Chap 5-6-1, By 4-4-1) Continue reading


Doin Lines Week 3

50 yard line moneyAnother week down in the NFL season, and I have little to show for it. This week didn’t even start off promising like last week did as I went 7-9 vs. the spread, and now am 15-17 on the year. I think there’s a chance I could be entering a Lamar Odom type state as he slowly realizes he’s tying the knot with Khloe. Whatever state of self doubt it is, I may have to reconsider continuing to post these picks publicly throughout the rest of the season. On a brighter note, I once again did good in my confidence games, and am now 9-3 on the season with picks that had a confidence rating of 4 or 5 on! This gives me hope, and has made me realize that I shouldn’t be picking every game out there. I have reconsidered, and will go a different route. Say goodbye to confidence ratings, and get ready for the six LOCKS of the week. I’m guessing there’s as good a chance I’ll have a few $$ on these games come Sunday.

San Francisco (+7) Over Minnesota

Patrick Willis Adrian Peterson 49ers Vikings

Cmon AP, I just want to give you a hug!

I like taking the points here. Minnesota has looked really good this season, but on the other hand who have they played? Cleveland and Detroit to jog your memory. This will be their first real test against what I deem a good team, and most likely the only team that’s remotely worth preparing for in the NFC West. The 49ers had a win against last year’s Super Bowl loser, and I thought they showed a lot winning that game on the road. I think they’ll do just fine in Minnesota, keeping it within a touchdown. I have a feeling that Patrick Willis will be spelling Peterson all day long, which could be fun to watch. Same goes for the other featured back (Gore) in his quest for a resurrection year!

New York Jets (-2.5) Over Tennessee

I’m not sure if the Jets are “Super Bowl” good as many media outlets seem to claim on the east coast, but their defense “the Rexecutioners” has shown that they are going to be tough to score on. I didn’t think I’d pick the Jeff Fischer lead Titans to go 0-3 on the season, but in a very hostile and fired up crowd, it’s going to be tough to convince me to bet otherwise. Although Tennessee has a great running game, I think they can be tamed the way the Jets did with Steve Slaton was in Week 1. The Titans are also in the midst of a four game losing streak dating back to last season. Mark Sanchez has impressed everyone so far, and put to rest Pete Carroll’s doubts about him being ready enough to enter the draft. I guess we now know why he wanted Sanchez to stay so bad, because USC doesn’t seem to trust anyone they have to be in there!

Detroit (+6.5) Over Washington

I don't think the coyote e-mailed Jessica with any tips...

Whoa settle down! I didn’t pick Detroit to win or anything, I just picked them to cover! This game has the same excitement level as Jessica Simpson losing her dog to a coyote. Washington went against St. Louis last weekend, and pulled out two point victory. I couldn’t believe they weren’t blowing out the Rams. The Rams are dysfunctional at best, and just showed that Washington has no identity and no offense. I think Detroit will put up a good fight at home to try and put an end to their losing streak. I don’t think they will, but I see this one being close enough to take the points.

New York Giants (-6.5) Over Tampa Bay

I’ve never given Eli much credit even though he’s won a Super Bowl, and going into this season I still viewed him as mediocre. This season everyone was to saying how he’s going to have a bad season, because he has no recievers. I’ve been very impressed with how well Manningham and Smith have played for him. If you look at it more closely is it really the recievers or is Eli really that good? As for the Buccaneers, they are the worst they’ve been since before the Tony Dungy era.  They are in the midst of a six game losing streak dating back to last year. I don’t see the bleeding stopping this weekend, and forsee TV blackouts for Bucs fans in the near future!

Chicago (-2.5) Over Seattle

Jay Cutler Bears hit

Cutler getting the insulin knocked out of him.

Seeing this line raise a point over the last day and a half has me convinced that the Bears are the right pick. With Hasselbeck hurting his ribs for a second straight season, I have a hard time picking them especially after getting pounded by San Francisco last weekend. The Seahawks just aren’t a good team, and I don’t see how changing to the Jim Mora Jr. Era will make things better. It seems like Cutler is getting some fluidity with his receivers as he showed the Bears faithful the kind of a Pro Bowl QB they traded for pulling out a win from the defending champs last week!

Oakland (+1.5) Over Denver

I don’t really like picking this game, because I’m not a fan of betting on my own team and jinxing them. Seriously though, how can I curse the Raiders any more than they already are. They already lost a game to the catch or no catch rule that was analyzed by David Flemming as a catch when other catches this season weren’t ruled incomplete. The Broncos got lucky against the Bengals in week 1, and followed that up with a strong performance at home against Cleveland. I think on the road it’ll be another nail biter. The Raiders looked good in their first game and lost, looked bad in their second game and won. I don’t know what to expect from their offense, but I have a feeling that their recievers that torched them last year, won’t have that same success this time around!