Tag Archives: Divisional Round

Doin Divisional Lines

Chappy: I can’t remember a first round of the playoffs that I did well in, and last week was no exception missing 3 of 4 picks. No big deal though, there’s plenty of time for redemption. Last weekend was somewhat boring for playoff football, but now it looks like we’re getting into the fun match ups. If you happened to miss Tebow’s pass to win it in overtime, here’s an awesome peanut remake of the play.

Last Week: By (2-2) Chap (1-3)

Regular Season: By (27-20) Chap (50-35-4)

New Orleans @ San Francisco (+3.5)

Chappy picks San Francisco (+3.5). I can’t really tell if I’m rooting for the 49ers to win or not. I have mixed emotions about them returning to glory while the Raiders continue to spiral in god knows what direction. That being said, if there’s a team that can slow Brees down, this is the team. I feel like the biggest match up of this game will be Sproles. If they stop him, they will be able to get the Saints off the field. If not, they might be in for the longest day their defense has seen in awhile. If there’s one thing I love about the Niners it’s their linebackers abilities, and Bowman and Willis will be able to cover Sproles and Graham. The 49ers are also coming in probably the healthiest they’ve been all season, which is another reason I’m taking them in this one.

By picks who else? SF (+3.5)  Obviously I’m a homer on this one, but without sounding too bias, I’ll state some reasons as to why the Niners might be able to pull this off.  #1 – We’re at home, we’ll have a blood thirsty crowd on our side, and I’m crossing my fingers it’s going to be windy/rainy as hell over here come Saturday.  #2 – We have the best defense in the NFL, and if the old adage holds true, defense is supposed to win championships.  I couldn’t agree more with what Chappy said above, and it’s the same thing I’ve been telling all my friends/family/co-workers all week, if we can contain Darren Sproles, we have a legitimate shot at slowing down the Saints offense.  I believe the Niners front 7 will get to Brees before deeper routes can develop, and if his safety valve in Sproles is locked up, it changes the complexity of their entire offense.  I don’t think the Saints score more than 20 against us.  The question is, will we get 21 against them?

Denver @ New England (-13.5)

Chappy picks New England (-13.5). Did Tebow really win throwing the ball last weekend? Do the Patriots really have WR’s starting in their secondary? I can’t see Tebow winning two weeks in a row throwing the way he did at the end of the season, not that I couldn’t throw against the Pats secondary, but I see God ending his sons magic run this weekend. The Patriots were the first team to make the “blueprint” on how to force Tebow out of his comfort zone (making him roll to the left), and now they have Josh McDaniels on their coaching staff they’ll know even more ways to stop him. Not sure why Pittsburgh didn’t use that template, instead blitzing nearly every down, but that’s beside the point.

By picks Tebow (+13.5).  What Tebow did to the Steelers THROUGH THE AIR last weekend was amazing.  I never questioned his ability to rise to the occasion, and do whatever is asked of him, but he took it a step further with his uplifting performance last week.  And it’s hard for me to think the magic ends here.  Bare in mind that prior to Brady taking over the 2nd half of an earlier match up between these two this year, Tebow and the Broncos were dominating the Pats.  Something fell apart for them, and Brady simply never released his hands from their throat.  The difference this time is, Tebow can throw!  New England’s defense couldn’t stop a leaky faucet from running, but now they have to play the pass too?  The dynamic of this match up has completely swung, and when all else fails, how can you ever bet against God’s quarterback?

Houston @ Baltimore (-7.5)

Chappy picks Baltimore (-7.5). I don’t know many people that really think the Texans are going to win, but will they cover is the real question. I am nervous about relying on Joe “I’m feeling disrespected even though I haven’t done anything in the playoffs” Flacco to win by more than a TD, but Baltimore is the perfect type of team to face Houston in that they can shut down the run even as good as Arian Foster is. It will be tough for the Texans to score, and still being in their first franchise playoff run, I don’t see them coming out on top. If Baltimore loses, I may never pick them again in the playoffs… Their regular season match up was a long time ago, I don’t see that factoring in the equation much because they had Schaub still as their QB.

By picks Houston (+7.5). Yes, I’m picking three, count ’em three upsets this week.  And yes, I’m not picking Houston to just cover, they’re going into Baltimore this weekend, and then flying back home to get ready to host the Broncos next week.  That’s an A1 BOLD prediction for you!  Really though, I like Arian Foster.  A lot.  And then there’s Ben Tate.  When you have a line, and two backs like that, it puts a lot of pressure on a defense, albeit a great one.  But this will be like a heavyweight fight, and what might be the difference in this game is who you trust more at quarterback.  Oddly enough, I already like T.J. Yates better.  Houston’s going to pound and pound away, then set up a big play action late to steal this game away.

New York Giants @ Green Bay (-7.5)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-7.5). If this Giants win this game, maybe I’ll believe all that they’re the same as the 2007 team crap they keep shoving down my throat. Until then, you gotta roll with the champs. The Packers didn’t look as good without Greg Jennings on offense, but low and behold he’s back, so I see them getting back to their video game type numbers. Will Eli be able to keep up on the scoreboard? Yes, but I forsee a Charles Woodson or Nick Collins pick 6 at some point to cover that spread.

By picks Green Bay (-7.5).  Yeah, yeah.  We’re hearing it from every angle from the media.  The Giants are clicking, and they’re resembling the 2007 playoff team that rode late momentum towards a championship upset.  Except this is mother f**kin’ Aaron Rodgers.  ‘Nuff said.  Pack win, and win big.

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Doin Divisional Lines

Ouch, the playoffs started rough, but I can’t say that I wasn’t aware that my picks seem to go downhill once the regular season ends. I wish I could say it was because the teams were so even, but with the exception of one game they were all blowouts. I actually missed most of the Arizona and Green Bay game because I assumed it WAS going to be another blowout when Arizona was up by 20 in the 3rd…  Anyways, my 1-3 record last week will have to improve if I want any of you to take my picks seriously this playoffs. This week I’m trying out a new strategy, and picking the teams I don’t want to win. I guess if I don’t win my picks, I’ll find some solace in jinxing the teams I want to lose. As always the home teams are in bold.

Arizona (+7) Over New Orleans

Do I want Arizona to win? No. Were they playing better than the Saints down the stretch? Yup.  I’m not sure why, but I like to root against Arizona, and for some reason the more I do root against them, the more they win! Last week they added another amazing chapter to their recent playoff history, but I guess that didn’t convince odds makers. It did convince me! The Saints defense struggled at the end of the year, and most likely will struggle again against a now very balanced Cardinals attack. With Beanie emerging as a solid back, the Saints will have to worry about more than just Warner and Fitz. I would say the same for the Saints, but their offense looked less dynamic than the Packers at the end of the year only producing 44 points over their last three games compared to averaging 36 through the first 13 weeks. I really like the Cards 10 straight wins against the spread, so I’m picking them with confidence! I kind of want to see a battle of the grey hairs in the NFC Championship game!

Baltimore (+7) Over Indianapolis

Since last week I was wrong about nearly everything, I figured I may as well go against who I want to win this week. I really don’t want to pick Flacco over Manning, which sounds retarded rolling off the tongue. You ever notice Flacco’s off hand when he throws? It looks like he’s got a disability or something. Anyways, in the end, I’m not really sure I agree with this line. Seven points is pretty high, especially when their first meeting in Week 11 was a 17-15 Colts win where the Baltimore D picked Peyton off twice. It was a sloppy Colts win, but it wasn’t anywhere near a blowout. The Ravens looked dominant against a mojoless Patriots team last week. It’s nice to see that you don’t really need a QB to win a game, you just need the other QB to NOT show up. I doubt the Colts will forget their mojo, and will hopefully win in a close one. I still think it’s lame that the Colts didn’t go for the perfect season, but I’m not Caldwell, so it wasn’t my decision.

Minnesota (-3) Over Dallas

I know, Dallas is the hottest team in the league, and not to many people are picking Minnesota since they kind of limped across the finish line. Tony Romo is playing better than I ever thought he could, the Boys rushing attack looks great, and their defense is shutting down everybody. All of this still isn’t going to stop me from picking the Vikes! The Vikings are 8-0 at home this year, and I doubt that Favre sort of came out of retirement to lose to pretty boy Romo at home nonetheless. There’s something about the Metrodome that helps them win. They play like nobody’s business when they are there, so I see this one playing out exactly the opposite of the way people are predicting. I’d say that this is the most fair line of the bunch. I hope I don’t find out the hard way this weekend when the game is on that the Cowboys are that good…

San Diego (-7) Over New York Jets

I was hoping that when I saw the LT glide music video, it would give me just one extra reason to root for the Jets, but finding out it was filmed two years ago ended that hope. As much as I don’t want SD to win this game, I have a feeling this one will be a blowout. There’s only one Revis, and three really good receivers and a decent fourth that Rivers can throw to (Jackson, Floyd, Gates, and sometimes Nanee). The Bengals only had one receiver, Ochocinco, so passing game was containable. In this pass happy era, it’s not the running game that wins games for you, especially in the non-treacherous weather of San Diego. Just look at the top two seeds in the AFC this year! Phillip Rivers, much to my dismay, is a great quarterback. No matter how much I sports hate this guy, he keeps playing well and winning. The Chargers are as healthy as they’ve been all year and are getting back Eric Weddle in the secondary. I can’t picture Sanchez putting in two good playoff performances in a row. Especially since this time around he will have to make more plays if their offense is going to be successful. They won’t be able to grind it out on the ground like they did against Cincy. I see Sanchez making some mistakes against a much better defense.