AFC Over/Under Predictions

It’s that time of year again, and Vegas has released the props for projected win totals in the NFL earlier this week. We all took a crack at how we thought each AFC team would fare against the over/under totals, so read the teams you care about or all of them if you like our opinions that much. For the 2010 season, we were right on for 68% of our picks!

Patriots (11.5 wins)

Dre – Over.  This might be the easiest bet on the board.  The Pats won more last year, and have added an offensive weapon in 85 (said in Spanish) and a defensive stud-when-he-wants-to-be in Haynesworth.  These deals always work out for the Pats. I can see 14 again easy.

Chappy – Over, I think the Pats are ready after letting all those young players grow last year. 14 wins with a mismatched cast last season has me felling confident with this pick.

By – Over.  As much as I hope this team fails to live up to their expectations, the combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, with the additions of The Human Tweet and Albert Haynesworth should be more than enough to cover.

Chargers (10 wins)

Dre – Push.  Last year’s was in inter-division fluke.  And slow starts seem to plague this franchise.  Before their week 6 Bye: 4-1 (Ws: Min, KC, Mia, Den. L: NE).  And there will be no freak sloshball game that KC just barely wins, the 31-0 whoopin in game 2 was the truth. 

Chappy – Push, not that they can’t win more than 10, but their schedule is rough this year with games against the reining champs, and the AFC East. They were abused by their division mates last year as well, so this isn’t a lock at all.

MCeezy – Under. The window has officially closed for the Chargers. They have virtually no running game, Floyd and Jackson seem to care more about money than anything else, and Philip Rivers is a meltdown waiting to happen.

By – Over.  San Diego is still the measuring stick in the AFC West, and I haven’t seen anything done from the other teams in the division to change that.  Plus, it’s a quarterback driven league and last I checked, Philip Rivers is still one of the highest rated qb’s as well as douche faces in the NFL.

Steelers (10.5 wins)

Dre – Over.  By plenty.  The Steelers will again be the class of the North, with their only competition coming from the Ravens twice, Pats and Colts.  Otherwise they match up with the NFC West this year, not tough at all.

Chappy – Over, their schedule starts off a little tough, but after week 9 against Baltimore, they might be able to win their last six games without much challenge. I guess we’ll know if this prediction is going to workout by mid-season.

By – Over.  I dislike the Steelers.  They have more Lombardi Trophies than the 49ers, so I was uberly excited when they fell short to Green Bay in the Super Bowl last season, add to that it was to Cal’s Finest, woot woot!  But let’s face it, the Steelers aren’t going anywhere and if anything, they’re even more motivated to return to the top.

Colts (9.5 wins)

Dre – Over.  I wish I could say Peyton’s health could be an issue, and while it’s his neck and not legs he’s rehabbing, he’ll be out there by the second week of September to lead the Colts to victory.  He’s Peyton Manning.  Nuff said.

Chappy – Over, I don’t think a Peyton led team has won less than 10 games in a good decade. I’ll give it to them on that fact alone.

MCeezy – Over. The lockout is going to help the Colts as much as anyone. They’ve never been the best team on paper, but always know how to execute and get the job done. Manning’s discipline alone will probably carry the team to 12 wins.

By – Over.  Yes the Colts don’t seem to be the sexy pick anymore, but on the strength of Peyton Manning alone, over.

Ravens (10.5 wins)

Dre – Over.  I truly believe the Ravens will get the Steelers this year.  Another easy schedule, like the Steelers, but the Ravens have a chip on their shoulder after the playoff loss to their rival.  Either way, they’ll probably match up again in the divisional round.

Chappy – Under, They cleared a bunch of cap space, but didn’t do anything with the money. This fairly old defense has to break down eventually right? I wonder if the crime rate will go up as a result of them losing more games than last season?

MCeezy – Over. Let’s hope so at least. I’d hate to see a mellow Ricky Williams forced to endure evil, which we call crime.

By – Under.  I like the Ravens, I really do, but their window has closed.  Or I should say, Pittsburgh never let them open it.  Baltimore will still be a force to be reckoned with throughout the league, but they’ll also still play second fiddle to the black and yellow up North.

Titans (6.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  A gigantic question mark at QB is not the way to start a season, with Hassel’s back giving out periodically and a rookie who doesn’t know how to run out of bounds or slide to avoid contact.  Should be an exciting year in Tennesse.

Chappy – Under, Chris Johnson is holding out. I can barely name anyone else on their team outside Finnegan and his fight night attitude. Hasselbeck should’ve stayed in Seattle imho.

By – Under.  Chris Johnson is holding out.  Even if he does sign, the Titans have no threat at wide receiver to keep defenses honest.  Well, I take that back, there’s potential, but still.  Like Chappy said, I can’t really name any other player on this team aside from the aforementioned.  That usually means a losing record.

Dolphins (7.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  Four losses within the division to start.  Then a tough schedule after that, with an unproven QB and a rookie RB taking the ball.  Marshall will be ineffective, and the addition of Reggie Bush will be a bust.  Yeah I said it.

Chappy – Under, replacing Ronnie Brown and Rickey Williams with Reggie Bush isn’t the recepie for success. I do like the Marshall and Bess combo in the recieving core, but that isn’t enough in such a tough division.

MCeezy – Under. The Dolphins seemed like they were on the way back to contention, but I’m just not convinced they’ll be able to gel on the field this year. Unless, Jason Taylor has one more great season up his sleeve.

By – Under.  Pretty much what Dre said, although I do like Marshall to be a little better than “ineffective” but not by much.  Perhaps the term “somewhat useful” works better for me.

Texans (8.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  Shouldn’t this line be 8 even?  Everyone knows this is an 8 win offense and an 8 loss defense.  I didn’t see enough in the additions of Joseph and Manning to the secondary to change that.

Chappy –  Over, even though they didn’t improve this porous defense, they have a relatively easy schedule, so I see them topping 9 win mark. This might be one of my least confident picks.

By – Over.  Why do I always fall for the Texans Pre-Season hype?  This year there isn’t as much hype, but still, new season, same story for me.  I just really like Houston’s offense.  If Houston’s offense had a Facebook page, I would become a fan of it and like it.  I hope it’s enough to squeeze out 9 wins.

Jets (8 wins)

Dre – Over.  This seems pretty low considering the success this franchise has had the past two years.  They didn’t lose a lot on offense, besides Braylon’s droppsies, and their defense is oh so strong.

Chappy – Over, I’m sure Rex is pissed at this win loss prediction that Vegas gave them. I almost went for a push with this one, but I bet they will be better than a .500 team. At least they have the AFC West on their schedule this year.

MCeezy – Over. How are they going to go back to .500 after such a solid year last season. We saw what Michael Vick did for Philly last year fresh out of jail, you mean to tell me adding Plaxico won’t propel them to an AFC East title this year?

By – Over.  Not sure why the o/u is so low on this one, didn’t the Jets make the AFC Championship Game last season?  They’ve only gained experience since then, and this team really responds to Rex Ryan and his antics.  They might get swept by the Pats in the division this season, but 9 wins shouldn’t be too difficult for Gang Green.

Bills (5.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  The Bills are still the Bills. Tough schedule this year between their division games and being matched up with the NFC east.  Add on the Chargers and Chiefs, and it’s not looking promising.

Chappy – Under, I don’t even know what direction this team is going, but it’s not up. Being in the strongest division in the league won’t help them one bit either.

MCeezy – Under. The Bills are the equivalent of a triple-A team in the NFL. Nick Barnett and Shawne Merriman would have formed an amazing LB duo, but I’d prefer to have Poluzsny. I just can’t believe Lee Evans is still there. Is he the longest tenured player in Buffalo since Andre Reed?

By – Under.  They can only compete with one team in their division, and that one team is still better than them.  Add to that, they’ve got tough out of division match ups, and a 5 win season would be something to celebrate in Buffalo.

Browns (6.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  Even being matched up with the NFC West won’t help as they’d be lucky to split.  Their division is rough, and their veteran QB likes to give the ball back to the other team.  No Bueno.

Chappy – Over, They did some good things last year, and I think they will improve again. They play the AFC and NFC West this year, which should help them get to 7 wins on the season.

By – Under.  I do believe in the Madden curse.  If anything happens to Peyton Hillis, the Browns are in big trouble.

Broncos (5.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  I hope Kyle Orton keeps his job, but either way I don’t think the Broncos have enough talent to get past their own division and a tough rest of schedule.  No defense is not how to win games, even with a nice draft on that side of the ball.

Chappy – Under, I’m iffy on this pick, as I think the return of Elvis Dumervil will help them a lot on defense where they were terrible (up front), but that won’t be enough unless the Tebow issues get sorted out.

MCeezy – Over. I hope, for the Raiders’ sake, it’s the under, but I think Denver rebounds from a disappointing season, and Kyle Orton plays with a little extra fire, after many wrote him off before training camp. I also think John Fox has a rejuvenating year and guides this team back to the playoffs.

By – Under.  Despite Kyle Orton being the firm starter at quarterback, if adversity arises, the fans will be calling for #15, as they should!  Give Tim Tebow the damn ball and let him lead you to the promise land Denver!  Since I don’t see that happening soon, Denver won’t be visiting any promise lands soon.

Jaguars (6 wins)

Dre – Push.  Another QB situation up in the air.  Will they let David Garrard go out there before they hand the keys over to their 1st round pick Gabbert?  Is MJD completely healthy?  If so, they get to 6 wins. Otherwise they will be drafting very high next season.

Chappy – Under, Any team on the brink of moving doesn’t seem to do that well. They were a nice story last season, but this year their schedule is much tougher. I feel like MJD is going to get hurt this year too…

By – Push.  6 wins hinges on Pocket Hercules’ health.  If he stays healthy, the Jags can get to 6 wins, despite being in a very tough division.  Big question is will David Garrard finish the season as the starting quarterback, or will future cornerstone Blaine Gabbert take over?

Chiefs (7.5 wins)

Dre – Over.  The Chiefs are up and coming, and they have made strides on both sides of the ball.  Their defense improved at each level, and their passing attack may comes close to rivaling their great running game.  They will be better than .500.

Chappy – Under, I wouldn’t be shocked if I got this pick wrong. They have a great running game, and their special teams is second to none. Like I said with the Chargers, the AFC West has a tough schedule this year outside the division.

MCeezy – Over, but when I say over, I mean 8 wins. Last year was huge for the Chiefs, and they’ve kept their roster mostly intact. It’s too bad Mike Vrabel retired, but the additions of Steve Breaston and Le’Ron McClain should give them some much needed depth.

By – Under.  What the Chiefs did last season was amazing, great turn around for a historic franchise.  I’m just not ready to believe they are legit.  I hope they prove me wrong, they have great pieces in place and are exciting to watch at times.  

Raiders (6.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  Sorry Raiders fans, but still no solid passing game (Campbell, really?) means regular 8 man fronts to stop Run DMC.  Everyone was shocked to see the Raiders have success last year.  There will be no shock this year, don’t worry.

Chappy – Over, obviously this a “hoping/homer” pick. They won 8 games last year, and even though they lost Nnamdi, the Raiders were 2-2 in games he didn’t play due to injury. Hue Jackson has the respect of this team, so hopefully he can take advantage of it.

MCeezy – Over. They lost their two most productive players in Nnamdi Asomugha and Zach Miller, but it’s a team game, and Hue Jackson seems poised to have the Raiders playing like a team once again. Richard Seymour led the defense last year, and he’s back. Darren McFadden has a broken face, but there’s no way he doesn’t come back strong this year, as he enters the prime of his career.

By – Under.  Sorry Chappy, sorry Matt.  Don’t worry, I’ll be much more cruel to my Niners.  Just don’t see anything positive going on for the Raiders. 

Bengals (5.5 wins)

Dre – Under.  This could be a sad year in Cincy.  I’m not sure what Carson Palmer is thinking.  Guess he’s just a quitter.  They are in a tough division and their schedule isn’t that bad, but they seriously downgraded at QB and their stud rookie WR AJ Green will go mostly unused.

Chappy – Under, this feels like a lock, although getting Ochocinco’s side show away from the team might help. The fact remains they are a team stuck in reverse.

MCeezy – Over. I don’t know what to make of this team, but just for the sake of argument, I’ll say they reach 6-8 wins. Most people see the loss of Ochocinco, and a huge dark cloud of uncertainty around Carson Palmer. On the flipside, they’ve also had an aggressive offseason, adding guys like Nate Clements, Bo Scaife, Thomas Howard, and Manny Lawson.

By – Under.  It seems impossible for a team to succeed when the players act like they don’t want to be there.  Well in the case of Carson Palmer, there is no acting involved!  A dysfunctional situation in a black and blue division leads me to believe the Bengals will have very few dubs this season.
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About chappy81

I'm a dude that just hit 30 years old. Pretty much like everything that is funny, insightful, and has to do with the Warriors, A's, and Raiders. View all posts by chappy81

9 responses to “AFC Over/Under Predictions

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