Doin Lines Week 13

Chappy: Whoa, in By’s absence, I almost had a perfect week if I hadn’t stupidly gone against the Packers on Thanksgiving. This week we both decided to skip the Thursday game altogether… I’m creeping in on my best gambling season since the first year I started betting on the games. Naturally winning a lot that first season got me hooked for life, but this year may have gotten me more into it than ever. Enough of my bragging babbling and onto this weeks picks!

By: Sucks that I was too swamped at work to put in my thoughts on the match ups last week.  But with Chappy going 6-1, the hot streak continues for the Doin Work team, as both of us remain well over .500.  Not much else to say other than enjoy our picks, and onto the lines!

Last Week: Chappy (6-1)

Overall: Chappy (36-23-4) By (26-17)

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-7)

Chappy picks Cincinnati (+7). For some strange reason I’m really confident in this pick. I almost feel like taking the moneyline on this game, but that’s probably not going to happen when I can take a touchdown. The Steelers are coming in banged up with Big Ben’s finger that he injured more in practice, Polamalu’s head, and Woodley’s hammy. The Bengals on the other hand have basically nobody hurt, and are healthier than any team I can think of off the top of my head. Oh and the Bengals are road warriors this year, going 5-0 against the spread. Will Cincy win and keep their playoff hopes alive? I can’t say they will, but it will definitely be a closer than a TD type game.

Atlanta @ Houston (+2.5)

Chappy picks Atlanta (-2.5). I think every week I write that a team is overlooked, and this week is no different as I think Atlanta has really rounded into form, and they catch a huge break playing against a third string QB in T.J. Yates. As if the Texans weren’t predictable enough before with their offensive scheme, now they might run 85% of the time. I see the Texans franchise long 5-game winning streak coming to an end as Matt Ryan puts up some big numbers on a defense that is on the field too much during this game.

By picks Atlanta (-2.5). Atlanta isn’t the best of road teams, but they’re definitely a talented bunch, with enough weapons to compete against the Saints or Packers in a slugfest on any given Sunday.  But the fact that this game is considered an even bet, when Houston will most likely start a third string quarterback in T.J. Yates speaks volume on the balance this Texans team has.  We all know of the two headed monster in the backfield with Foster and Tate, Andre Johnson is back and closing in all full strength, but it’s Houston’s underrated defense that steadies the ship in my opinion.  With all that said, I can’t see the Texans holding off the Falcons with whoever they throw in at quarterback this weekend.  That’s just too much to overcome when considering their opponent.

Oakland @ Miami (-3)

By picks Oakland (+3). Miami has been very tough lately, and prior to the Dallas game last Thanksgiving, their defense has been rather stiff.  In fact, even in that game, they had Tony Romo against the ropes for the greater portion of that game.  Offensively, Matt Moore looks just as effective, if not more effective than Chad Henne did earlier in the season.  And don’t look now, but is that Reggie Bush shouldering the load as the lead back?  Unfortunately Miami is facing an Oakland team that has yet to peak, but is coming off an impressive win against a then streaking Bears team.  When Carson Palmer finally clicks with his receivers, watch out!  The one thing the Raiders can hang their hat on, is that running game.  Darren McWho?  Michael Bush has filled in and at times outshined DMac.  And I expect more of the same this week.  Raiders by 7.

Denver @ Minnesota (PK)

By picks Denver (PK). I’m sorry, but I can’t explain the Tebow phenomenon.  Like I’ve said in the past, I’ve been a Tebow fan, and I knew of what he was capable of doing in college purely on his will to compete, but this is the NFL.  This is the elite among the elite.  And according to the experts, Tebow is not supposed to be successful at this level.  Well he’s 5-1 as a starter this year and has a once dead Broncos team in the hunt for a playoff spot.  It’s tough to bet on a west coast team travelling east, but the fact that one side has a hobbled AP, and the other an improbable winner, I like my chances with the latter.  God’s QB delivers again.

Baltimore @ Cleveland (+6.5)

Chappy picks Baltimore (-6.5). As much as I hate to pick the Ravens after a big win after they seem to usually choke against a crap team like the Browns, but not this weekend. I don’t see how they can play down to the Browns level even if they are division rivals. I think what makes me think they won’t play down to the competition is they get a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thanksgiving. Peyton Hillis might be back, but that won’t help as much since he’s been a huge disappointment all year long and the Ravens are pretty good at stuffing the run lately…

Green Bay @ New York Giants (+7)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-7). There’s one way to stop Aaron Rodgers, and that is to knock him out of the game. Without Osi in the lineup, I don’t forsee any Rodgers concussions. The Packers also had some extra time to prepare for the Giants, which makes me think they’ll do what the Saints did to their defense. I was watching some highlights of Rodgers that Kurt Warner went through, and it looks like he channeled some inner Brett Favre with a little Peyton mixed in. Favre in that he was taking risks, and Peyton in that he always makes the right choice on where to throw the ball. If the Pack get out to a big lead, don’t be surprised to see the boo birds coming out in NY as their team gives up early in the third quarter.

By picks Green Bay (-7). I know this is essentially a must win for Eli Manning and the Giants.  And I know they’ll be playing at the New Meadowlands.  But I just can’t bet against Aaron Rodgers.  He’s the clear cut favorite for MVP this season, so much so that if you a bet a dollar on him to win the award right now in Vegas, and he does win it, you lose a dollar.  I know it’s standard protocol for a team flirting with perfection to not talk about the potential feat, but there’s something about the way the Pack carry themselves that makes me think they’re really going to go for it.  And aside from the Saints game on opening night, I must say, they haven’t been truly threatened to lose yet.  If Drew Brees ripped apart the Giants secondary, what do you think Rodgers might do?  Pack, big.

Detroit @ New Orleans (-9)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-9). It’s hard not to like what the Saints have been doing at home this year putting up 40+ ppg. No need to tell you about all their weapons, because that might take as long as this entire post to break down. One other thing you have to be excited about with the Saints is they are pretty much completely healthy. The Lions have fallen back into the team they’ve been for the past few decades. An undisciplined bunch that finds ways to lose. They kinda remind me of the Raiders last year, improving, but just not quite there yet in terms of maturity (not that the Raiders are mature this year). The Saints are there, and will roll them up in the Sunday night late game.