Doin Lines Week 3

Chappy: Last week wasn’t bad, but not that great either. If it weren’t for a few scores late in games to keep them closer I could’ve gone undefeated this weekend. Unfortunately the Vegas betting gods weren’t on my side, and I ended the week at 2-3. It seems like the oddsmakers are making it tougher on the betting crowd, because this week is tougher than the first two combined in my opinion.

By:  I told Chappy prior to last week’s picks that the lines were one of the toughest I’ve ever seen.  The result, brutal.  My first donut ever.  More so than the tough picks, I feel that all the bragging I did after going 3-1 during opening week came back to bite me.  If karma’s a b**ch, make sure that b**ch is beautiful.  Mine was hideous.  To the lines ~

Note:  My picks are off parlay cards, so the spread might be different.

Overall [Chappy (5-3-1) By (3-5)]

Houston @ New Orleans (-4)

Chappy picks New Orleans (-4). The Saints offense is rolling. They put up 30 on the Bears who are supposed to be underrated, then overrated, then back to underrated again. Looking up and down the Saints roster, it seems like Sproles might have been their best signing this offseason! The one thing I’m positive on, is that the Texans defense isn’t nearly as good as the Bears or Packers D. Yes the Texans rebuilt their secondary, but this will be the first time they truly have their hands full with a great QB. I see a lot of scoring in this one, but the Saints will pull away like they usually do in front of their home crowd.

Miami @ Cleveland (-2.5)

By picks Miami (+2.5)  I like what the Browns got going with Colt McCoy, he’s shown me a lot these first two weeks of the 2011 season.  But he did play against the Bengals and Colts, two teams who will not be contending for a playoff spot, so I can’t read too much into that.  Across the way, Chad Henne has done some nice things against two division favorites, and so despite a bagel in the win column, I’m still slightly more impressed with Henne.  There’s a big question mark in the Dolphins back field, but overall Miami has more weapons than Cleveland, and win by at least six points.  Plus how can you root against a guy who wears shades every single minute of the day like Tony Sparano?

Detroit (-3.5) @ Minnesota

Chappy picks Detroit (-3.5). Detroit has given me two straight ATS wins in two weeks. I can’t remember the last any time I’ve been able to say that. They pulled out an impressive road win over the Bucs in week 1, which gives me the confidence to pick them to beat a division foe this week on the road. McNabb looked slightly better last weekend, but we still know the one thing the Lions really need to worry about, AP. If they bottle up AP, there’s noway the Vikings win. Minnesota also has a weak secondary, so expect a big day from Stafford and Megatron.

By picks Detroit (-6)  In my main fantasy league, I told my friends I wouldn’t draft a quarterback in the first five rounds because the position was deep this year.  I took Matthew Stafford in the sixth and told them all I just got a second round pick with the selection.  They all laughed, mainly because that’s what we do when anyone of us makes any pick, but still, who’s laughing now.  Offensively, Detroit is a handful for any team let alone the lowly Vikings.  Megatron, Jahvid Best and even the underrated Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler present several match up problems in which the Vikes won’t have answers for.  But it’s Ndamukong Suh and the defensive line that automatically covers the spread.  McNabb has clearly devolved into a mediocre quarterback and AP can’t carry this team alone.  This game might be close early, but slowly but surely, the Lions impose their will on Minnesota.

Jacksonville @ Carolina (-3.5)

Chappy picks Carolina (-3.5). I don’t think Cam is the greatest thing since sliced bread like many seem to think, but I do believe in him more than the newly named QB of the Jaguars, Blaine Gabbert. He’s also better than I think nearly everyone expected. Hopefully he learned a few things against the defending champs last weekend. My rule of picking against rookies starting their first game applies to this one. Will Cam throw for 400 yards again? I’d say yes because this Jaguars secondary doesn’t exactly scare teams from throwing against them. If Carolina doesn’t win this game, they might be 0-6 before you know it!

By picks Carolina (-5). Camolina and company will finally get their first win under the Newton regime.  Again I admit, I did not think Cam Newton would be even remotely as effective as what he’s shown his first two games, but I am now eating my words.  He did throw three picks last week which was costly in an otherwise close game against the defending champs, but Newton’s been more than impressive nonetheless.  I feel the Jags are making the right move in starting fellow rookie Blaine Gabbert, but ultimately there’s some growing pains he’ll have to go through.  Not everyone is Cam Newton.  MoJo Drew will have his work cut out for him, but similar to the situation in Minnesota with AP, not one guy can carry his team solo.  The Panthers win, and win big at the end.

Atlanta (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay

Chappy picks Atlanta (-1.5). If Sunday’s late game didn’t convince you the Falcons are pretty good, then I don’t know what to tell you. Tampa Bay has a tough time stopping Michael Turner, I think he had a 200 yard 2 TD game against them last year (He was on my fantasy team). I like the Bucs, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to bet on them. I don’t even think having the Sportschump screaming his drunk ass off will help them overcome Matty Ice. Speaking of Ryan, it seems like he didn’t really get a lot of credit for leading his team to a comeback win, so big ups Matty.

Green Bay (-3.5) @ Chicago

Chappy picks Green Bay (-3.5). GB beat the Saints, the Saints destroyed Chicago = Packers winning by more than 4. I’m not sure why, but I kinda feel bad for Cutler. Did you see how many times he was laying on his back last week? Maybe the Bears need to do what Carolina is doing with Cam, and leave eight guys in to protect him. Usually these two teams play close games, but this feels a little different this year. The Bears are piling on injuries mixed with a little giving up on Martz and old age, which isn’t a good sign in week 3. I have a hard time seeing the Pack letting this game be as close as last weeks against Carolina.

Baltimore (-6) @ St. Louis

By picks Baltimore (-6). Similar to what happened last week when Pittsburgh hosted Seattle a week after being embarrassed by Baltimore, the Ravens will take out their frustrations from a disappointing loss on another NFC West team.  Baltimore definitely had a opening week hangover in week two.  The way they played against the Titans, is not the way you want to follow up a statement win.  I look for the Ravens to be angry as hell for their match up against the Rams, and with St. Louis possibly without Steven Jackson again, and leading pass catcher Danny Amendola, this game might get ugly quick.  I’m thinking 30-9, Ravens.

Advertisements

About chappy81

I'm a dude that just hit 30 years old. Pretty much like everything that is funny, insightful, and has to do with the Warriors, A's, and Raiders. View all posts by chappy81

10 responses to “Doin Lines Week 3

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: