Another week down in the NFL season. Shockingly, I’m still on a pretty good run with the picks. I thought by now I’d be falling back to .500, but fortunately that hasn’t been the case. By had too much to do this week to get his picks added in, so I’ll be flying solo on picks for week 12. I’ll pick a couple more games than I normally would including upsets in two of the Thanksgiving games maybe due to no bye weeks, but mostly due to By’s absence.
Last Week: Chappy (3-2-1), By (2-2)
Overall: Chappy (30-22-4), By (26-17)
Miami @ Dallas (-7)
Chappy picks Miami (+7). There’s nothing like stuffing your face, and watching the Cowboys lose. Unfortunately, they usually seem to win on Turkey day. I’m not entirely convinced that Miami will win this game, but ever since Reggie told everyone he and the entire team sucks, they’ve played very good. Who needs Andrew Luck anyways, Matt Moore is gelling with his receivers like Ace Ventura did with Snowflake, and actually looks like he might have a future in this league. The Cowboys are on a roll lately, but we all know that Romo can inspire a downward spiral in a hurry, and I feel like this is the beginning of the usual Cowboys collapse in the second half of the season even if it is still November where Romo is usually a winner.
Green Bay @ Detroit (+6.5)
Chappy picks Detroit (+6.5). Not sure how confident I feel in either of these Thanksgiving picks, but honestly I feel like it’s going to be a close game whether Detroit can pull out a victory or not. Maybe the Lions listened to my rant in the lines last week, because they started to run the ball again. I’ve been saying for awhile that since Best went out with a concussion, they had become way too predictable in their attack. I don’t really like the Detroit secondary or any secondary against Rodgers for that matter, but they at least have the guys to knock him down a few times, and don’t worry about a penalty if they do want to hit him just to hit him.
Chappy picks Houston (-3). Anybody out there think Matt Leinart can be effective in this offense? Probably not, since the last time he took over a winning team in AZ replacing Kurt Warner, he showed that he wasn’t the right guy for it. I do have lots of confidence in him being able to hand the ball off to Ben Tate and Arian Foster. Even I can do that, so he should be fine. Plus, he’ll get back Andre Johnson this week, and you barely have to hit the area code he’s in for him to haul in the pass. Since the Jags never score more than 20 points, I could see the Houston backfield beating them in points to cover this spread. The Texans can overcome Leinart’s sucktitude, and win by more than a field goal.
Carolina @ Indianapolis (+3)
Chappy picks Carolina (-3). I was really hesitant picking this game, because it seems like the past few times I’ve picked Carolina they’ve disappointed me. That being said, I’ve felt comfortable every time I’ve picked against the Colts this season, and Cam should be able to bounce back after his mistake prone game against a team that doesn’t let the opposing team make mistakes. A bye week wasn’t going to fix all the problems the Colts had all over the field, hell, an off-season might not even remedy their problems at this point… This might be the last time Indy has a chance to win this year, but sadly I only see 0-16 in their future.
Chicago @ Oakland (-4).
Chappy picks Oakland (-4). I’ll be in attendance for this game with about 20 friends! Back when the tickets were purchased for the game, I actually was very afraid the Bears would come in to Oakland and win. Now that SD helped us out by knocking out Cutler, I feel comfortable betting on this game again. It sounds like there’s an outside chance DMac might be playing in this one. Even if he’s not, Bettis 2.0, aka Michael Bush has shown he can get the job done by showing off his own version of Beat Mode, and could be one of the most underrated back in the league. As long as Palmer doesn’t turn it over, the Raiders should be able to beat Hanie and Forte. I am worried about the receiving core for the Raiders though with Ford and Moore in walking boots, and DHB coming off a concussion.
Denver @ San Diego (-6)
Chappy picks Denver (+6). Wait, what!?! Denver is a six point dog in this one?!? I know Vegas and God don’t exactly mix, but seriously Vegas, how can you smite Tim Tebow’s team like this!?! Phillip Rivers has shown us one thing this year, and that is he can turn it over with the best of them. He’s taking on one of the most underrated defenses in the league that causes tons of turnovers and three and outs, which should make it difficult even at home. It’s even highlighted more when their offensive line is in shambles. It’s funny how all my Chargers friends gave up on their season three weeks ago, just like Rivers did, zing!
NY Giants @ New Orleans (-7)
Chappy picks New Orleans (-7). For some reason the Saints are a team that’s flying under the radar kinda like the Texans were in the AFC. New Orleans is healthier than they’ve been all season on both sides of the ball, and have the type of offense that gives the Giants problems. I think I’m picking the Saints more because they’re coming off a bye week and at home where they always show up and play well. Awesome Drew Brees stat; at home he has completed a ridiculous 76% of his passes. The Giants will get Ahmad Bradshaw back, but I don’t see that being enough in the end to keep them close enough to cover. If my picks come out correct in the NFC East, the Eagles actually do still have a shot at winning that division.