Looks like the trend for my picks is continuing. I went 4-2 last week, and said that I’d have a winning record because I alternate weeks on doing well and then doing bad. That being said, I guess you can safely pick against my picks this weekend as you will be sure to come out a winner if this seven week and counting trend continues. I know we haven’t been putting up a whole lot of posts lately, and for that I apologize. I’m guessing it’s because the W’s and Raiders hit the wall called reality that I always seem to forget exists when they are playing well. If David Lee didn’t get rabies from Wilson Chandler, and Richard Seymour didn’t throw a fit, I’d be a little more motivated. Oh well, at least I won on two parlays this weekend! Money makes up for internal pain a little! Another bright note from last weeks picks, By and I were 2-0 on picks we agreed on. Much better than weeks past!
Never would a 26-25-4 record look, and feel so good, until now. Being that it’s been a struggle to stay within striking range of .500 all season long, to finally get over the hump after Week 11 has allowed me to breath a big sigh of relief. This is what Steve Young must have felt like when Super Bowl XXIX was already decided and he told his sideline to get the monkey off his back. Unfortunately, the one loss last week, came with me foolishly betting on my 49ers after all my other bets had covered, and seeing them not even show up to the game. Anyway, like I said last week, I ain’t stopping now! I will chase down that elusive 5-0 week, I promise. On a side note, congrats to Chaps, he’s closing in on .500 and I know it’s coming soon! Let the lines begin!
Week 11 (Chap 4-2, By 4-1) Overall (Chap 28-31-3, By 26-25-4)
New England (-6.5) @ Detroit
By picks New England (-6.5). Nothing like tradition, and Thanksgiving football in the Motor City is definitely tradition. You know what else is tradition? The Detroit Lions getting spanked at home during Thanksgiving brunch. What better way to keep that tradition alive, than to send the NFL’s best team to 8 Mile Road? The Lions have talent, there’s no question about that, but for some reason, they can never get it together. Meanwhile, Tom Brady is in the hunt for his second MVP award, and keeping pace with the NY Jets in the AFC East is of the utmost importance to the Pats. They’ll stay sharp Thursday and carve up some Lions with ease.
New Orleans (-3.5) @ Dallas
Chappy picks New Orleans -3.5. Let’s start it off with a tough one shall we! The Cowboys are trying to get their third straight win, but this is by far their toughest opponent. They took out a sleepwalking Giants team (who are impossible to figure out), and then went on to beat a so-so Lions team. If there’s one thing that Garrett has done since taking over for the much maligned Phillips, is that he made them look like a real football team again. The Saints are also rolling pretty good winning their last three games including one against a tough Pittsburgh team. I like Sean Peyton and Drew Brees over Jason Garrett and Jon Kitna. Speaking of Kitna, why has this great collection of talented offensive players looked better than when Romo was in the lineup? I don’t have the answer, but maybe you do…
By picks New Orleans (-3.5). Yes I get it, the Cowboys are red hot and rejuvenated by the change at the helm. But that doesn’t change the fact that the Saints are hotter! Drew Brees has quietly put together another magnificent season despite a some what of a slow start. A scary fact, the Saints aren’t even close to hitting their peak stride, and so I see nothing but improvement from here on out from the boys of the bayou. As for the Cowboys, enjoy your mini streak while it lasts. Come Thursday, the Saints are going to stuff the Cowboys. (Hope you guys are sensing a theme here).
Cincinnati @ New York Jets (-9)
Chappy picks Cincinnati (+9). Every analyst is in love with Mark Sanchez and his clutch performances lately. I can’t disagree that he hasn’t been clutch, but why are some of these games even that close to begin with? Seven of their ten games have been closer than a TD, and they were far from shootouts. Sanchez might be playing well at the right times, but would it kill him to throw for 300+ yards and have a 3-4 TD game. When he gets a couple of those under his belt, I’ll start believing. Cincy is the opposite. They seem to get blown out early, and come back only to fall short. The polar opposite dynamic of last year’s team. This is the main reason to take the points!
By picks Minnesota (+3). The Vikes got exactly what they wanted, a new coach. And no, I’m not talking about the interim guy who’s pretending to be the coach, I’m talking about the “texting” guy. He’s the real coach of this team. With that said, Favre will rekindle some 2009 magic and unleash a few deep bombs to Sidney Rice. Rice should have better legs under him after playing in his first game this season. The Vikings are too talented to be losing these many games, so I expect them to prevail over another dysfunctional team in Washington. Minnesota 27, Washington 21.
Tennessee @ Houston (-6.5)
Chappy picks Houston -6.5. I think Chris Johnson is going to have a huge day against an awful Houston offense, but in the end if you have a rookie named Rusty making his first NFL start, you can’t like your chances that much. Maybe it won’t feel like a road game for the Oilers, I mean Titans, going back to their birthplace many years ago. It’s amazing how a team can go from contender to pretender in two quick weeks after nabbing Randy Moss off waivers. I wonder when he is going to be back on waivers? My prediction, after this week’s loss and another one catch performance he’s there.
Carolina @ Cleveland (-11)
Chappy picks Cleveland -11. I think the only thing that hasn’t changed over the past four weeks in a season that my opinion changes every week is that Carolina will lose by two scores minimum regardless of who they are playing. Cleveland happens to be on the rise and at home. I like them winning big. I still wish the Raiders used one of their first four picks on McCoy. Hopefully that doesn’t bug me for the next ten years…
Tampa Bay @ Baltimore (-7.5).
By picks Tampa Bay (-7.5). This is the most intriguing match up of the weekend. I’m pretty high on the Bucs, and I’m really high on the Ravens. Baltimore is a legit contender, while the Bucs are good pretenders in my eyes, but with that said, Tampa plays every team tough and they’ll bring it this weekend in Baltimore. Joe Flacco has been picking apart defenses consistently all year, but Ray Rice has finally showed up to the party. That makes this Ravens team that more dangerous. Ultimately, I don’t see the Ravens winning by more than a touch down, and so I’m going with Ronde Barber and company to cover this week. Ravens win by 4.
Chappy picks Baltimore -7.5. It’s funny how everyone comes to their conclusion on who is the best team in the league. I’m not sure I can give Baltimore that title, but they are about as close as it gets, and are about as complete as it gets on both sides of the ball. With all due respect to Raheem and the Bucs, they really haven’t beaten any of the “contenders” they’ve faced. They were blown out by Pittsburgh and New Orleans, then lost a sort of close one to Atlanta. Everyone else they played has a losing record. Since I see Baltimore as a true contender, I don’t mind laying the points when they are at home. I see Ed Reed getting down on one of those patent interception TD returns by baiting Freeman into thinking a receiver is open.
Kansas City (-2) @ Seattle
By picks Kansas City (-2). Who would have thought that the AFC West would have been this good, and that Kansas would play a road game this season in which they were favored? The one two punch of Thomas Jones and Jaamal Charles would normally be enough for me to pick the Chiefs in this spot, but now throw in Dwyane “Not Wade” Bowe!? Sold! Dwayne Bowe has been the best wide receiver in the league over these past two or three weeks, maybe with the exception of Roddy White, and so I don’t expect things to change this week as Bowe will have his TD and 100 yards. Seattle’s a tough place to play, but I still feel good about KC’s chances in covering.
San Diego @ Indianapolis (-3)
Chappy picks San Diego (+3). These two teams always have good battles, and usually come down to the last play. I took the liberty of flipping a coin, and George Washington told me to take the points. Made sense to me!