Chappy: Starting to get into a groove again with these picks, and so is By! Glad I picked mostly early games last week, because the late games were the upsets/close games. I can’t believe we’re over halfway through the season. Seems like it’s flying by. Pretty nervous for the Raiders-Chargers game tonight, and will not be wagering on it. Even with nobody on a bye week and more games to pick from there are a bunch of divisional match-ups this weekend and the lines are almost all in single digits, which could make it tough.
By: Great week for me last week, in fact, due to a hectic work schedule, I wasn’t able to write up a quick blurb about the Bengals/Titans match up, in which I would have picked Cincy. Should have had a 4-0 weekend. Also, due to my own confusion, I wasn’t able to confirm my picks with my homeboy who doubles as my bookie, which led to me losing out on a little money. It was the one downer of the weekend, but no biggie. The crazy thing is, I wasn’t entirely confident on any of last weeks games. This week on the other hand, I feel I got locked down. With that said, on to the lines ~
Last Week: Chap (4-1), By (3-0)
Overall: Chap (25-17-3) By (21-14)
New Orleans @ Atlanta (-1)
By picks New Orleans (+1). Before I get started, I must say I like all of Chappy’s picks, all of which I am not getting involved in. Which means you lucky readers will be getting our speculative opinion on 9 games this week! Anyway, this NFC South match up is a tough one. What’s not to like about Matty Ice and his career home record? And being that the spread is only one point, the Saints would have to defeat the Falcons to cover. But, if any team can do it, it’s the Saints. Well them and of course Aaron Rodgers. But the one thing I took away from New Orleans game last week, was a little more emphasis on balance. Sean Payton elected to use his running game a little more than usual, even going balance within the balance, as three back’s got significant touches. What that ultimately does, is open up the play action, which makes Drew Brees that more deadly. I think the Saints get a big statement win on the road against their division rivals, and show who is top dog of the pack.
Chappy picks Houston (-3). Is Houston the best team that barely anyone is talking about? The way I see it, they probably are the most complete team in the AFC at the moment. Their running game is second to none, and Schaub can huck it all over the field when he needs to, and they’ve done virtually all of it without Andre Johnson. Their defense has improved a ton in the secondary compared to last seasons last ranked in passing yards allowed awfulness. The Bucs have been up and down all season, and it’s always hard to figure out which team will show up between the competitive team and the play dead team. Will it be the team that beat the Saints? That team sure hasn’t showed up the last two weeks. Of all the lines this weekend, I like this one the best.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (+3)
By picks Pittsburgh (-3). I know, I know, the Bengals are 6-2 and currently tied with the Ravens for the division lead. There’s just one thing, they haven’t played the Ravens or the Steelers yet. Well that’s all about to change this weekend, and let the light shine on the truth. Now don’t get me wrong, the Bengals are legit, it’s just one of those situations in which they play in a division that’s a two horse race, and one of those horses just lost to the other horse at home last week on a last second play. I think that horse is going to be mad. Enough horse talk, quite simply put, the Steelers are going to lay down the lumber on the Bengals this week, no if’s, and’s or but’s about it.
By picks Kansas City (-3). I’m the biggest Tebow believer/supporter/follower there is, but there’s no way I can look at anyone with a straight face and say that Tim Tebow won that game last week in Oakland. Sure he did some nice things, but the Raiders lost it themselves. The AFC West is as tight a race as they come past the half way point of the season, and to me, the two best teams are still the Raiders and Chargers, but the Chiefs are right there in it, despite their 0-4 start. Unfortunately for them, they thought they had a second bye last week, and never showed up to the game. They can’t afford to get behind, so look for them to take care of business at home, and kill all the Tebow hype. At least for one week.
Tennessee @ Carolina (-3)
Chappy picks Carolina (-3). Cam after a bye week had to learn a thing or two on what he’s been doing wrong thus far in the season, and that probably isn’t too much outside a bad decision on a throw or two. I’m not sure that this pick is so much that I think Carolina is a much better team, but more how I view the Titans these days. Hasselbeck has looked okay lately, but CJ300 hasn’t been getting it done, and leads the NFL’s 27th worst rushing attack. Looking through the games the Titans have won, they only beat crappy teams like Cleveland, Indy, and Denver, so I feel like Carolina should be able to cover the spread.
Baltimore @ Seattle (+6.5)
Chappy picks Baltimore (-6.5). I think Baltimore showed us all something last Sunday night, and that is Joe Flacco is actually clutch from time to time. That being said, I have a hard time seeing them needing a last second drive to win this game. Baltimore has been putting up big points during a three game win streak, and the Seahawks have only scored 28 points in their last three. It’s not going to get any easier for them as they face the 2nd ranked defense in the NFL. If this isn’t a blowout, color me purple.
New England @ New York Jets (-1.5)
Chappy picks NYJ (-1.5). The Jets seem to be plugging the holes in their rushing defense for the last three weeks against teams that can run the ball. I’m still not sure how confident I am in Sanchez, but ever since Shonn Greene stepped his game up he’s looked a lot better. New England has looked like crap for the last couple weeks, and I think the Jets D is much better than the Buffalo D that stifled Brady for a half. Is this the demise of NE? I sure hope so!
NY Giants @ San Francisco (-3.5)
By picks San Francisco (-3.5). Far removed from the glory days are the 49ers, when finesse took to the air, and points were scored in abundance. These Niners are about boring ball control, and smash mouth defense. And you know what? I love it just the same, because it’s working! There’s a lot of buzz about how Alex Smith has improved as a quarterback, but in my opinion, he hasn’t at all. Jim Harbaugh has simply placed him in situations in which even an idiot couldn’t fail. Frank Gore in a walking boot scares me, but he said he should be good to go. Our ability to score points hinges on him. The one thing that’s scary in a good way is this Niner defense anchored by P-Willy. They’re so good, they could tango with the AFC North. And they’ll get their chance during Thanksgiving. For now they’ll show Eli Manning what it’s like to feel pressure, and despite his impressive come back at New England last week, Manning was throwing against a poor secondary. No miracle catches by a #85 will save him this week. #NinerFaithful
Minnesota @ Green Bay (-13.5)
Chappy picks Green Bay (-13.5). Picking five favorites has me a little worried. Not sure how confident I am in this Monday night pick either, but how can anyone pick against the Pack at this point. Rodgers seems to be playing better than Brady’s video game style season 08′ season, and is on pace to throw for over 50 TD’s. There is a big question about their defense as they seem to be getting gashed weekly by opposing offenses. The only way I see the Vikings covering is if they hold the ball for two-thirds of the game, and AP gets like 180 yards with three scores. I’m not that confident that will happen for AP, so I’m taking the pack in a blowout…