Daily Archives: July 17, 2009

NFL Over/Under Wins Predictions… Doin Work Edition

We’ve taken the Vegas win total over/unders for each and gave them the ol’ Doin Work twist. ….


Arizona 8 ½ Wins
Brian: Under. I don’t see Warner having as good a year as he had last year. He has amazing receivers, but losing Boldin isn’t going to help them.

Matt: Under. The much-maligned running game won’t get any better in Beanie Wells’ first year.

 Andre : Over.   Let’s see here… SF, SEA, and STL are a given 6 wins this year, if they lose 1 of those I’ll be really surprised.  Cardinals will come back strong, I’m  actually very intrigued to see what Beanie/Hightower combo can do in year 1.

Atlanta 8 Wins
Brian: Over. They look like a team on the rise, and are banking on Ryan to get better in his second year of action.

Matt: Over.  Matt Ryan and Michael Turner should be a postseason staple for years to come.

 Andre : Over.  The Falcons brilliant recovery from disaster in 2008 was story book really, and they only got stronger this offseason.   I think they can get to 10 wins in the NFC South, with the addition of a HoF security blanket at TE and The Burner and Roddy White entering their primes.
Baltimore 8 ½ Wins
Brian: Under. This is a tough one, but I thought they overachieved a little last year.

Matt: Under.  Gone are Steve McNair and Derrick Mason. Terrell Suggs’ 6-year deal has trouble written all over it.

 Andre : Under.  Not enough at WR to work with, lack of #1 RB at this point, and an aging CB corp and MLB (sorry Ray) will slow the D and keep that O off the field to begin with. 
Buffalo 7 ½ Wins
Brian: Under. I’m not sold that Trent Edwards can have a healthy season, and any team with two trouble makers TO and Marshawn is bound for disaster.

Matt: Over. I think they’ll be the same old Buffalo team, finishing 8-8 on the outside looking in.

 Andre : Over.  I’m gonna gamble and say the addition of TO pays off for Lee Evans and opens up the passing game, and once Marshawn comes back from his suspension he’ll be fresh and ready to go for the heart of the schedule.
Carolina 8 ½ Wins
Brian: Over. With the running game they have, they can control the clock every game, which goes a long way in winning games.

Matt: Under. Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith aren’t getting any younger.  

 Andre : Over.  Love that running game, they will definitely shorten the game and keep their O on the field.  And that D is nasty at times but needs to show up every week.  Re-signing Peppers needs to be a priority, but for now he’s playing for a contract so that means big year ahead.
Chicago 8 ½ Wins
Brian: Over. We’ll see what Mr. Insulin is made of now that he’ll have a defense. Problem is he doesn’t really have anyone except a former returner to throw to.

Matt: Under.  The addition of Jay Cutler should give fans reason for optimism, but I don’t see the Bears hanging with Minnesota and Green Bay

 Andre : Under.  The Bears have no leader on Offense.  Haven’t had a leader on offense for a long time, and didn’t acquire one in any big trades this offseason (I’m looking at you Jay, can you handle that??).  Guessing the Bears look much like the Broncos did last year, big arm and nothing else, doing just enough to fall short
Cincinnati 6 Wins
Brian: Under. Ask a Cincinnati fan why you should bet on the under, oh wait, never mind, there aren’t any…

Matt: Over.  This is a crapshoot, but I’m banking on an up year for Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson.  Do they have any running backs yet?

 Andre : Over.  But not by much.  I’d be willing to bet they have the strongest D in many years, but in the AFC North that’s just not good enough.  Palmer and *% should come back strong, but Benson at RB?  Really??  Are there any lakes to party on in Ohio?  Just curious…  
Cleveland 7 Wins
Brian: Under. Braylon leads the league in drops over the last two years, which exemplifies their lack of discipline.

Matt: Over. If anyone’s due for a playoff appearance it’s the Browns.  Hopefully they can decide on a QB and trade the other for some help in other areas.

Andre : Under.  Just a no go all around.  They need to pick one of their young strong arm QBs and go with him, for good.  Use the bargaining chip while he’s still young with little wear and tear, then go pick up a vet to back-up.  After that they can start working on revamping the D, as that side was fairly miserable last year and not getting any better.
Dallas 9 Wins
Brian: Under. With TO and Jessica out of Romo’s life, the love fest between him and Witten will reign supreme in Dallas, but not in a good way.

Matt: Over. Dallas isn’t as good as the teams they’ve fielded in recent years, but the new digs oughta boost them to a solid finish.

 Andre : How can you go wrong here?  Talent everywhere, especially at RB with two great back-ups with game changing speed in Jones and Choice.  The D comes back strong, and most likely less drama for yo baby’s mamma.  Ok, no more TO.
Denver 7 ½ Wins
Brian: Under. They may get first in the AFC West with under 8 wins! Their defense was a disaster, Brandon Marshall is complaining, and they lost Cutler.

Matt: Under. I have high hopes for Knowshon Moreno, but I don’t see a Kyle Orton-led offense winning the AFC West.

 Andre : Under.  Way too easy here.  Question marks at QB, RB, WR (is Marshall going to play??), the Defense was atrocious last year.  They might not get to 6 wins.
Detroit 5 Wins
Brian: Under. I’m more sure on this bet than any of my others so far!

Matt: Under. The Lions did a major overhaul on their roster – er, no they didn’t.  Stafford isn’t going to be working any miracles.

 Andre : Under.  Do we even know if Stafford will play this year?  Are they really rolling out Culpepper?? Could be another scary year in Motown, and look forward to seeing them at the top of the draft again next year.
Green Bay 9 Wins
Brian: Over. They need a better year from Ryan Grant, and their secondary is getting older. We’ll see I’m wishy washy on this one.

Matt: Over. The Packers, with their core of Rodgers, Grant, Jennings, and Barnett, might be the class of the NFC this year.

 Andre : Under.  I truly believe Minny has the inside track in the North, QB or no QB.  GB might challenge to make it a 2 team race, the definitely Bears won’t and the Lions who?  I think Rodgers will have a hard time if Ryan Grant can’t come back stronger than he did last year, even with strong weapons at receiver. I think 8-8 might be a good season this year for the Pack.
Houston 8 Wins
Brian: Over. I like the core they have on offense and defense. I think they are going to be playoff bound this year.

Matt: Push. The Texans seemed destined for another 8-8 season. Their division schedule is a killer.

 Andre – Under.  The Texans are doing good things, and Schaub to A Johnson will be a great combo all season.  RBs are small and might not be able to gain the physical yards, while the D is not quite a strong as it needs to be against the run to be successful.
Indianapolis 10 Wins
Brian: Over. They’ve won at least 12 games every year since 2003, so I see them finding some way to make it over 10.

Matt: Over. The Colts have found a way to get it done in the regular season this whole decade. Shouldn’t be any different this year.

 Andre : Under.  I was very close to a push, but settled back to 9 wins.  Will Addai come back strong?  We know Wayne will get his, but then what? Clark is injury prone, Gonzales still making his name.  The defense really gelled at the end of the regular season, but fell apart in the playoffs.
Jacksonville 8 Wins
Brian: Under. I really have no idea what to expect from this team. It’s a surprise every week seeing what team will show up.

 Matt: Under. Brian’s right.  The Jaguars really do have a lot of question marks.

 Andre : Under.  I’m not sure MJD can carry a full load, and the WR corp was thin to begin with.  Last season was a big step back, and I believe we could see more of the same this year.  The defense has been overhauled in the last two years, not quite a scary as it used to be.
Kansas City 6 Wins
Brian: Over. This is a toss up, the race to six or seven wins may win the AFC West!

Matt: Under. KC has put all their proverbial eggs in one basket with Matt Cassel.  I still think they’re another year or two away.

 Andre : Push.  Six wins sounds just about right for a team gambling on a brand new QB with 1 year under his belt.  First year growing pains will be rough while he builds a relationship with his WRs, and the loss of Tony Gonzalez doesn’t make it any easier, as well as a question mark at RB.  The defense is a work in progress, but looked to be advancing.
Miami 7 Wins
Brian: Over. They need to try and sign Vick! I could only imagine the damage he could do in that Wildcat offense!

Matt: Over. Barely. If they can build on last year’s success, they should challenge Buffalo for 2nd in the AFC East.

 Andre : Under.  Sorry Miami, I haven’t seen enough improvement to warrant a 7 win season.  No receivers, half a QB, and a great running game means all kinds of blitzes and run stopping schemes.  Good luck with that.  Defensively they might be ok, but they’ll be on the field way too much.
Minnesota 9 Wins
Brian: Under. All Day can only carry them so far. I don’t see their defense leading the league in turnovers again.

Matt: Under.  They’re still a franchise QB away from contending. But, if they bring in Favre? Nah, still a .500 team at best.

 Andre : Over.  As I mentioned earlier, I’m high on Minny winning that ugly North division.  Minny was a great all-around team without a true QB last year, so whether they go with Favre or someone else I don’t think it matters too much.  Great running game, the D is fast and physical, special teams are strong.  AP better step it up and his 3rd year as a true leader of that franchise..
New England 11 ½ Wins
Brian: Over. I’ve bet against Brady too many times in spite. I guess I’ll try to jinx the Pats by putting them in the playoffs.

Matt: Under. I don’t think they’ll reach 12 wins, but 11-5 or 10-6 will be enough to win the division.

 Andre : Under.  Actually, UNDER.  As in Under .500.  I think this is the year the Pats just don’t get the bounces and calls going their way, all good things must come to an end.  This team’s core is only getting older, and unlike a nice bottle of wine it’s not tasting any better.  Last year Cassel stepped in admirably, but again with no running game and an aging D there will be a lot of pressure on Brady’s pretty little shoulders.
New Orleans 8 ½ Wins
Brian: Over. Their defense has to stop the other team a few times this year, right!?! Well in either case, I think Brees can orchestrate 9 wins.

Matt: Over. I’m torn, but I think a healthy Colston and Bush can put this team over the .500 mark.

 Andre : Under.  We’re all in love with Brees and Bush and Colston (or am I the only one?), but this team will once again need to prove they can win high-scoring shootouts with their less than mediocre D.  The NFS South will be very competitive this year, and I can see all 4 teams finishing between 9-7 and 7-9.  Unfortunately, I see the NO as the 7-9 team.
NY Giants 10 Wins
Brian: Under. Do they have any receivers yet?

Matt: Under. The NFC East is going to be a killer this year, and Manning to Steve Smith doesn’t seem that potent.

 Andre : Under.  With no passing game and defenses only getting stronger in their Division (aka Albert Haynesworth), they won’t be able to rely on their horse Jacobs quite as much.  Where will they go for 3 and long?? Who knows, but Manning could look more like the Eli of his first 2 years rather than the last 3.
NY Jets 7 Wins
Brian: Under. Too tough of a division, and the Dolphins pushed them down even further.

Matt: Under. A rookie QB and an aging, though effective, running back won’t be enough to contend with the Pats, Dolphins, and Bills.

 Andre : Over.  With the Pats slowing down, and the Dolphins making no big moves, I think the Jets are primed to take advantage even with a rookie QB if Sanchez does start.  They are loaded in the running game with Jones, Washington and Greene to help ease the load, and their D is set to be a top ranked unit next year.  9-7 is definitely not a stretch.
Oakland 5 ½ Wins
Brian: Under. I can’t jinx them yet, but I’d gladly lose this bet. 8-8 would feel like a championship these days.

Matt: Over. This is ridiculous, I know. But I see Jeff Garcia winning the starting spot, and they have plenty of weapons on both sides of the ball.

 Andre : Under.  Can you have negative wins in a season?  Just curious.  And who is faster in a foot race, Garcia or Russell?  Only because that’s how they make all of their other personnel decisions.  This might be McFadden’s time to shine if he can stay healthy, cause they will be behind a lot and just wanting to hold onto the ball.
Philadelphia 9 ½ Wins
Brian: Under. Westbrook turns the dreaded 30 for a running back. McNabb will probably miss a few games now that he signed his extension.

Matt: Under. The Eagles are giving the impression that they won’t persevere through the loss of the heart and soul of the team, Brian Dawkins.

 Andre : Under.  I wish I could say push, since they did have a tie last year and finish with 9 wins and that tie.  Anyways, all told I think the Eagles will be the Eagles and finish just above 500 and either sneak in or somehow miss by a hair.  Seems like the same story every year recently.  And don’t count on seeing Kolb start for this team any time soon.
San Diego 9 ½ wins
Brian: Under. I foresee another 8-8 year, but then again they do get to play a bunch of games against their weak division.

Matt: Over. The Chargers have been inconsistent of late, but anything less than a 5-1 division record would be a surprise.

 Andre : Over.  With a healthy LT, Merriman and Cromartie, this team will be back to ‘07 form.  Franchising Sproles made great sense as insurance, all Philip Rivers does is win (and through injuries), and the Chargers are guaranteed several wins in their own division this year as usual.  After several years of difficult and grueling schedules, this year’s softer line-up bodes well.
San Francisco 7 Wins
Brian: Over. I think Singletary will put the 49ers back to respectability mark.

Matt: Over.  The Cardinals should regress a bit, and the Rams and Seahawks haven’t gotten any better.

 Andre : Under.  Unlike the Vikings, having no QB in this situation really does matter.  In no way is this 9er team talented enough all around to carry the team past their ongoing search for a passer.  Gore will wear the brunt, and it will wear on him.  No thanks in part to a terrible Oline.  The defense is iffy at best, but could be strengthened if Singletary dresses on Sundays.


 Seattle 7 ½ Wins
Brian: Over. They can’t have as many injuries as last year. A healthy Hasselbeck will make them competitive again.

Matt: Under. But not by much. TJ should prove to be a great addition to the offense.

 Andre : Under.  With the exception of AZ, the NFC West looks like it might be a vacation for opponents this year.  Hass is coming back from an injury, and Seattle decided not to draft a youthful replacement for down the road.  No WR help, no RBs at this point, and a porous D will be very hard to overcome this year.
St. Louis 5 ½ Wins
Brian: Under. I didn’t think they were going to win one game for awhile there last year, and this year their roster looks even worse this year.

Matt: Under. The Rams should challenge the Lions for the bottom spot in the NFC this year.

 Andre : Under.  Who farted? Oh, that’s just the stench coming out of STL.  Could have addressed the QB issue, didn’t.  Could have gotten WR help, didn’t.  Did help the Dline, but didn’t address LBs.  This could be brutal, they should start clearing cap space for signing top 3 picks over the next few years.
Tampa Bay 6 ½ Wins
Brian: Under. Too much turnover in the organization to be competitive this year.

Matt: Over. No matter what happens, the Bucs usually find a way to contend.  They won’t make the playoffs, but they’ll finish better than 6-10

 Andre : Over.  I see TB getting to at least .500 this year, if not a game better.  They seem to  have made the right moves based on necessity that many teams did not this year.  If Cadillac can rebound from a slow year coming back from injury, the running game should be their strength along with Winslow as a solid addition and safety net at TE.
Tennessee 9 Wins
Brian: Over. They showed they have a lot of good pieces on defense and in the running game.

Matt: Over. The Titans might’ve been the best team in the NFL for a majority of the year last season.  Lendale White has decided to show up this year.

 Andre : Push.  I see the Titans fighting for 9 wins and a playoff berth with the Colts, as it appears there will be only one team coming out of this division.  The running game will remain a strength with LenDale coming in 20 pounds lighter, but the loss of Haynesworth in the middle of the Dline will leave them scrambling.  A 4 man rotation will be nowhere near as effective.
Washington 8 Wins
Brian: Under. Lots of talent, but they like to give away games.

Matt: Under. If Clinton Portis holds up this year, they’ll be alright, but the QB situation may hold them back.

 Andre : Over.  The NFC East will be a two horse race between the Cowboys and Indians, sorry, Redskins.  The offense should continue to improve with Campbell at the helm and Portis back at full strength.  The biggest off-season move by any team, the signing of Haynesworth to clog the Dline, will pay off huge dividends quickly.  This WILL be the top D in the league this year.