Tag Archives: Week 11

November 16, 2011

Doin Lines Week 11

By chappy81

Chappy: Another week in the books, and By is on a tear right now. I didn’t have a winning week, but the Raiders did come away from this weekend holding sole possession of first place in the AFC West, so all in all it was a great week! This week we have Ryan Meehan joining us from such blogs as First Order Historians, East End Philadelphia, and the official Ryan Meehan website with our picks.

By:  Of course God had smite me for going against his favorite quarterback in Tim Tebow.  Never shall I listen to the devil over my shoulder again and doubt the “Chosen One”.  Like so many times before this season,  my 3 team parlay fell short because I couldn’t pull the trigger on my Niners at home, and elected to go with a now hopeless Chiefs team instead.  All good, the positive out of it all, I’m nearly 10 games over .500 on Doin Lines!  Now onto the lines!

Last Week: Chappy (2-3) By (3-1)

Overall: Chappy (27-20-3) By (24-15)

NY Jets @ Denver (+6.5)

Meehan picks Denver (+6.5). Denver must be good if they can win a game by 7 points having their quarterback only completing two passes.  And the Jets must be slightly out of focus if they just lost a home game by three touchdowns.  Given it was against New England, but there is something really wrong with the Jets.  Regardless, they are still better than the Broncos and it’s a must win for them, so I’m taking them to win.  Plus a loss would sink them to .500 and although it wouldn’t mean they were out of the playoff race just yet, it definitely would mean they’re standing on the slide ready to fall into the pool.  Jets 24, Broncos 18.

Chappy picks Denver (+6.5). I’m not sure why, but I’m actually starting to buy into the whole Tebow is a winner thing. Maybe it’s the way God has put By in his place with his parlay card! One thing I really like about Tebow is you know he’s not afraid to make a mistake or two, because he burshs it off one second later. Having said that, I think the Broncos will lose Thursday night, but not by a ton. I picked a close score hoping for an entertaining game at least. Can Rex Ryan figure out John Fox’s foot fetish of a ground game? Tough to say, but I think Von Miller is an absolute beast and will keep the Jets from being able to run all that much.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-7)

Chappy picks Cincinnati (+7).

The cardiac cats are back. They seem to have a close game every week, and have been on the right side of most of those games. Dalton isn’t playing like a rookie, and the firecrotch has revived a team from the dead with help from AJ Green. Hopefully Green is on the field this weekend as they’ll need all the weapons possible against a Ravens team that is hard to figure out. The Ravens have been a huge anomaly this year, and seem tough to figure out from week to week, and I seem to always pick wrong when betting on their games, but that isn’t stopping me this weekend. Take the seven points in what I see as a close game. The Bengals D is no joke, so I don’t see a ton of scoring.

Oakland @ Minnesota (+1)

Chappy picks Oakland (-1). Is it me or should this line be more in favor of Oakland? I guess it doesn’t matter since nobody wins by one anyway. For starters the Raiders will have 10 days rest for this game after playing on Thursday in SD. The Vikings will be on short rest because of MNF. Am I overconfident in Palmer at the helm of our offense? Probably, because he’s been making throws I haven’t seen a Raiders QB make in over a decade. He’s made throws that not even the great Rich Gannon would’ve been able to make. Questioning his arm strength might just mean you haven’t seen his last two games. Minnesota seems to have packed it in already. If the Raiders don’t win this, they don’t deserve the AFC West title.

By picks Oakland (-1).  I’ve been saying for quite some time that the Raiders are the best team in the AFC West, followed closely by the Chargers.  Last week, the point was proven as the Silver & Black went into Qualcomm Stadium, in what felt like a home game for them, and took first place.  Now that’s how you’re supposed to take something you want Juan Manuel Marquez.  Anyway, there is some doubt here, as no team from the west likes traveling east for an early game, but coming off an emotional win like they are, I can’t fathom a Raiders let down this week.  Carson Palmer is slowly getting it back, and getting familiar with his talented receivers, and whether DMac plays or not doesn’t matter.  Michael Bush has shown what he’s capable of doing as the lone feature back when given the opportunity.  It will be tough, and AP will have a big game, but the Raiders edge out the Vikings by 4 here.

Buffalo @ Miami (+2)
Meehan picks Miami (+2). Upset special.  Not only is Buffalo total bullshit, they don’t match up well against the style of football Miami’s been playing as of late.  In a twisted sort of way I’m not even sure this is really an upset at all.  The game is in Miami and that fact always fills some extra space. Dolphins 24, Bills 23.

Carolina @ Detroit (-7)

Chappy picks Carolina (+7). Is it just me or did everyone completely discount the loss of Javid Best to the Detroit offense? Since he went down on his umpteenth concussion, they haven’t been the same team we saw in the beginning of the season. I think they had Stafford throw something like 60 passes last week, the polar opposite of what any team wants to do on offense. Either way they have zero running game without Best, and it’s hard to win throwing as much as they have lately, unless you have an elite QB, not sure Stafford is that quite yet.

Meehan picks Detroit (-7). I think we can all agree that the Lions looked horrible against Chicago last week.  Not nearly as bad as Carolina, who appears to have given up after seeing “highlights” from that Titans game this past Sunday.  Much like the Jets have to have the Thursday night game, the Lions need this one bigtime because writers (like me) and fans are starting to think the beginning of this season was a fluke for them.  And it’s really hard to mention Detroit without bringing up how dirty of a team they are, so there’s your weekly standard comment on that. Lions 27, Carolina 11.

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay (-14)

Chappy picks Green Bay (-14). I simply don’t see anyone stopping Aaron Rodgers and the Pack especially a younger Bucs squad on the road in Lambeau. The Packers defense looked much better against the Vikings on Monday, not sure if that’s really showing improvement or if the Vikings suck that bad. Maybe they’ve figured out that part of their team again. If so, that’s scary for the rest of the league…

Tennessee @ Atlanta (-6)

Meehan picks Tennessee (+6). Since I can’t stand the Hasselbeck era Titans, you can almost bet the farm that they’ll win here.  The Falcons have had to deal with questions all week about Mike Smith’s decision to go for it on fourth down at their own 29 yard line.  And it’s a shame they have, because it’s distracting the fans from the real issue at hand here:  That no matter how many times I write it I still can’t believe that Matt Hasselbeck has a job as a starter in the NFL.  And since the Texans just lost their starting quarterback it’s possible the Titans may end up winning the AFC South now.  Unreal.  So I’m hoping the Falcons win because I want to see the Texans make the playoffs, but I’m picking the Titans to win because not only am I a fan of reverse psychology, but I love being right. Titans 27, Falcons 23.

San Diego @ Chicago (-3.5)

Chappy picks Chicago (-3.5). Talk about two teams heading in opposite directions. Even the quarterbacks are on opposite ends of the spectrum from what were used to. Rivers now looks like Cutler did at the beginning of the season, and Cutler looks like what Rivers looked like last season. One thing that stands out is the O-lines. Cutler’s O-line is healthy, Rivers O-line is not. A non-healthy O-line all adds up to turnovers, which the Chargers won’t be able to overcome. I see VJ getting loose for a couple scores after apologizing to his team this week for his lackluster effort against Oakland, but that won’t help when they’re down by two or three scores and Forte is running wild on a D that isn’t great against the run. SD has issues on special teams as well, so another Hester return in this one? I feel like it’s happening if they kick to him.

By picks San Diego (+3.5).  Whatever has gotten into Douche Bag Rivers this season, I’d like to order more of that please!  I can’t stand this guy’s face.  But in reality, San Diego is immensely talented, and this is about that time of the season in which they come marching back from the dead and make a real playoff push.  It won’t be easy, as they’ll have to get their season turned around on the road in chilly weather against a hot Bears team.  Perhaps Brian Urlacher wasn’t wrong about saying Jay Cutler is the best quarterback if given time, as Cutler has been great lately.  (I still don’t believe that statement).  Whatever the case, this game should be a shootout, and I predict a lot of points on the board, but ultimately the desperation of the Chargers gives them the added advantage.  Bolts over Bears by 3.

Dallas @ Washington (+7.5)

By picks Dallas (-7.5).  I normally don’t like the idea of going with a team that has to win a division game by more than a touchdown on the road, but I’m kind of buying Dallas for the next few games.  Tony Romo looks somewhat competent as of late, as shown by his dismantling of Buffalo at home last week, but more importantly Jason Garrett elected to go conservative with a big lead this time around, unlike in the Detroit choke job, where Romo handed the Cowboys a loss.  Maybe it’s because they have a real running game now with DeMarco Murray.  On the flip side, Washington has absolutely no identity.  Did they really go back to Rex Grossman?  Will they continue to rotate starting running backs each week?  Who knows, but they’re a mess, and they’re going to get steamrolled this week.

Meehan picks Dallas (-7.5). Washington is now on a six game losing streak, and here they run into the Cowboys who are one of the five hottest teams in all of football right now.  If you’re a fantasy guy and you own you some Dallas players, start every single one of them.  And I’m not sure how fantasy football even works but if there’s some bizarre way that you can start them twice at the same time go ahead and do that too.  This will be the game where Romo goes 31 for 35 and throws for 380, could even be a career game for him. Cowboys 40, Redskins 19.

Jacksonville @ Cleveland (PK)

Meehan picks Jacksonville. When I first contacted Chappy about doing these picks, he mentioned that he doesn’t pick all of the games every week.  I would assume that this was the type of game he was talking about.  Browns would be the most disappointing team in the league if anybody had actually expected anything out of them, which they didn’t so it’s not really an issue. Jags 19, Browns 6.
Seattle @ St. Louis (+1.5)
Meehan picks Seattle (-1.5). I talk a lot of shit about the Seahawks but you have to give them credit.  There’s almost absolutely no way for them to sneak into the playoffs and they laid the Ravens out after the largest moral victory that team has had since Super Bowl XXXV.  Of all the players that didn’t get moved before the trade deadline, Marshawn Lynch has to be more pissed than any of them.

Kansas City @ New England (-14.5)

By picks New England (-14.5).  Tom Brady looked magnificent against the hated Jets in New York last Sunday night.  A Jets defense that features the best corner in the league.  Problem is, Brady loves his tight ends, and Revis doesn’t match up against either of them.  Even if he did for a possession, who would cover Wes Welker?  I guess what I’m saying is, the Patriots have too many options to defend against on offense, and they have a quarterback who knows how to get the ball to the right match ups.  Only way New England doesn’t cover is, if they lose discipline and don’t approach this game with the business like attitude that they approach every game under Bill Belichick, or if whoever KC’s backup is, happens to be the next Tom Brady.  I believe both is highly unlikely.  Pats big.

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November 18, 2010

Doin Lines Week 11

By chappy81

Maybe Jared needs to bring back the mullet lines to get Minny their mojo back...

A ho-hum 2-3 week has handed me the feeling that I’ll never figure this year out. Should I quit? Probably, but I’m addicted to losing money! My recent pattern has shown that I will have one good week then one bad week, so the good news is, I should have a good one this weekend. Now that we are past all the bye weeks, there’s a lot more games to pick from, so hopefully picking out the winners won’t be as tough.

I’m so close I can smell it.  I’m going with my usual five picks this week, but along with choosing by gut instinct, I’m using deductive reasoning.  Well, at least I think I am.  I swear I’m better than what my record indicates, but enough talking.  Time to show and prove.  These next five weeks are going to be killer.  Forget above .500, I’m going to the .600 club.  Who’s coming with me!?

Week 11 (Chap 2-3, By 3-2) Overall (Chap 24-29-3, By 22-24-4)

Oakland @ Pittsburgh (-7)

Chappy picks Oakland (+7). I’m not overly confident in this pick, especially since I think the Steelers are one of the best teams in the league. I do however like the Raiders coming off their bye week. They are healthy for the first time since week 4, and get back a slew of starters. Most importantly Nnamdi, Zach Miller, Louis Murphy, John Henderson, and Chaz Schillens are all going to be playing. Their best receiver and top targeted tight end should improve the passing game, and the way Brady picked them apart with the two tight end sets, we will need Campbell to have all the weapons possible. Remembering back to last year the game that got us to believe in Gradkowski? Well, if you don’t, it was in Pittsburgh, and they won behind Louis Murphy going off for 128 yards and two TD’s. On the Steelers side of the ball they could be without Hines Ward, which would give Mike Wallace a date with Nnamdi this weekend. I like our chances with that match up. The Raiders are third in the league in sacks, so if the Steelers do win, it will be because of Mendenhall carrying the load. Take the points, seven is a more than generous amount from the oddsmakers.

Green Bay (-3) @ Minnesota

By picks Green Bay (-3). I’m not a big fan of kicking someone when they’re down.  Unless that someone is Brett Favre.  Listen, I’m not one to pretend I’m unaware of his greatness, but if you’re a egotistical princess, well, I just won’t like you.  But, that’s not why I’m picking Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this week.  Minnesota is about as dysfunctional as a team can be right now.  When players publicly, but anonymously rip their coach apart, you can’t help but think they’re through playing for him.  The Vikings might drop this game big, on purpose.  I’m just saying.

Baltimore (-10) @ Carolina Continue reading

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November 19, 2009

Doin Lines Week 11

By chappy81

Can I get a Kool Aid Guy, OH YEAH! I went 5-2 last week, which brings me back close to .500 at 27-28-1 on the season! I have to thank blogmate MCeezy for helping my week start right, and jinxing the 49ers to cover by betting on the Bears! I guess now that I’m not working I have a little bit more time to make my picks more informed! Anyways, let’s hope it’s another good week, and as always the home teams are in bold.

Carolina (-3) Over Miami

Did Carolina finally decide to start playing this year? Last weeks’ surprising scoring output wasn’t just within their normal means of running the ball keeping it out of Jake’s turnover prone hands. They actually threw the ball for a good portion of the game, and Delhomme actually came out of it without throwing a pick! They beat an up and down Atlanta team that lost Turner part way through, but it was impressive to me nonetheless. It shows me that Atlanta isn’t all that good, and maybe Ryan is a little overrated. Ryan has been on a downward spiral for the past few weeks and has shown that there is definitely room for improvement. The loss of Ronnie Brown is the biggest factor in this game. He’s their best offensive player. Without him on the field how will they run the wildcat? With Pat White and Rickey Williams all game? I don’t see that having the same type of success as having Brown man the show. Since the Dolphins can throw the ball about as well as the Big Tuna, they should be one dimensional enough for the Panthers to stop.

Jacksonville (-8.5) Over Buffalo

What the hell is going on here? The Jags and Panthers in two straight picks! They both earned cheerleader pictures earlier this season! I guess we’re finally seeing a little of that parody thing they always talk about within the NFL. Mike Sims-Walker actually looks like a decent receiver, and Torry Holt is always dependable for a few grabs during the game. Garrard has managed just enough through the air lately to open up those holes for Mojo to run through, and he is doing just THAT! He’s scoring nearly twice a week, and should have last week but just missed in the fantasy kneel down heard round the world! Buffalo doesn’t seem to present any problems to stopping him, so he should have a big day. Buffalo still hasn’t named a coach since firing Jaron, but I don’t think that will make much of a difference unless the new coach or interim coach can put a completely new offensive playbook in before Sunday. Their conservative style has made them even worse than I imagined they’d be! Maybe they should just let TO coach, you know he’d be all over those refs all game even if he didn’t know what he was talking about. This already sounds better than the TO show!

Indianapolis (-1) Over Baltimore

I wonder if this was supposed to be the documentary on how he killed a man!

I haven’t really seen Baltimore look all that impressive in the games I’ve watched them play in. Even against the lowly Browns, they didn’t look great, which is opposite of how teams are supposed to look against them! Indy was dominated for most of the game against the Pats, and thanks to a lucky/risky move by Belichick they squeaked out with the win, and the Pats still covered for me! A solid win win situation! Indy hasn’t blown teams out very often this year, but I think they can win this game, and it will be by more than one point. Peyton should be extra pumped up for this one, as it looks like this could be their best opponent left on the schedule. Peyton has owned the Ravens going 6-2 against them, and with the announcement of Baltimore losing Suggs is surely going to hurt this Ravens defense squad. Ray can say what he wants about Peyton, but in the end he won’t be able to stop him. The undefeated season is looking more and more within reach for them!

Minnesota (-10.5) Over Seattle

Beanie Wells made an impact last week, and showed that Seattle can’t stop the run even against a team that doesn’t run. That might be pretty convenient for one Mr. Adrian Peterson. He seems to do very well against teams that don’t wrap up backs. Seattle at home can compete, but on the road I see them laying down early especially when Hasselbeck has to fear the Jared Allen and his mullet! With two of Seattle’s CB’s probably out, there is no way to convince me that this will be anything other than a blowout. Who knows, maybe even Tarvaris will be able to show off a few things that he’s learned from Brett at the end of this game!

New Orleans (-11.5) Over Tampa Bay

I think last week’s speed bump of St. Louis was a little too close for the Saints comfort level. This week should be different, after that reality check that showed them that any team can show up on a given week and could possibly take them down. So they better be ware that even the Bucs can win a game. I think Colston will bounce back nicely this weekend since he only had two receptions for 17 yards against a horrible Rams secondary, and it was his second straight bad game. He’s too good to be kept down for long. Brees hasn’t looked super sharp lately, so this feels like as good a week as any to break out as well! This might be a snorefest unless you like seeing the Saints put up points. It might be fun to watch them run up the score, but probably only if you happen to some fantasy players going in the game.

Denver (+3) Over San Diego

I guess this pick all depends on whether Orton starts or not, but I’m going out on a limb and assume he will play. I know Denver has been falling apart faster than a leper in warm water, but I think they’ll pull out a few extra tricks in this heated divisional game. Even if they don’t there’s no reason not to take the points for this home team. This game could go a long way to deciding the West, so I don’t see any problems with both teams being fired up. Even though the Broncos have lost three straight weeks and seem to be in meltdown mode, they have to break out of the funk sooner than later. If they lose this game it will be by a small amount so take the points. I hope they win, NOT because I like them in any way, shape, or form, but I just want to see Rivers cry a little. That would make my weekend!

Tennessee (+4.5) Over Houston

Tennessee is starting to roll now that they have Vince back in the mix. I’ve always been a believer that Kerry Collins was a retard since his days as a Raider. He couldn’t even get the ball to Randy f**ing Moss, so that just shows you how bad he is. The move to Vince, seems to have stabilized the offense. I don’t see them running away with it, but they look like they’ve righted the ship! I always believe in Fisher, he’s been one of my favorite coaches of all time! I don’t know what Houston’s deal is, I actually had them as a playoff team this pre-season, and at times they’ve looked like a playoff team, but at other times they’ve looked like Tennesee did at the beginning of the year, TERRIBLE! Just take the points when you aren’t sure!

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