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Doin Elite Lines

March 27, 2010 by chappy81 5 Comments

I know, last week's half naked Will Ferrell aka Jackie Moon picture was a disappointment, so this week I give you, body paint!

I did about as bad as I could have on my picks for the Sweet 16, but you just like Jesse James I’ll have to dust myself off and move on. Maybe I underestimated Tennessee, and I definitely gave the double digit seeds a little more credit than I should have. I thought they’d be close enough to cover a spread or two, but that wasn’t the case. I guess the last two days truly were separation days. The Cinderella’s went down, and the true contenders are headed to the Elite 8 with the Championship in sight. There was one thing I pondered while watching Duke tonight, did anyone get screwed more by the making of The Lord of the Rings Trilogy than Scheyer? He must hear so much hobbit trash talk on the court every game I wish we could hear him mic’d up. I know I’d be getting my punches in… Anyways, here’s my picks for the weekend games, and who will be making the final four.

Kentucky (-3.5) Over West Virginia

This is a tough one for me. I will be pulling hard for West Virginia, and huggy bear. But as much as I want them to win, I know they won’t. They need to pick up the defense, and if they can somehow stop/slow down Kentucky from running up and down the court, they have a shot. I just think Kentucky looks too good to be beat. This will be the first truly good team they’ve faced, and we should be able to tell if they are going to be able to walk their way to a Championship after this game. I thought Cornell would put up a little fight, but I was completely wrong. I think I’ve now forced myself to not pick against Kentucky again in fear of being eaten by Demarcus Cousins. Is it just me or is anyone else curious how much bigger he is going to get when he hits the pros? Christ, he already looks as big as Al Jefferson out there. Ok, ok, maybe that was an exaggeration, but agianst Cornell’s twiggy center, and most other players he’s come across he looks like a man amongst boys. The guy is going to be huge after he hits the weights for a couple years.

Butler (-3) Over Kansas State

I’d really like to see Pullen have some more cracks at game winners, the guy is nails when it matters most. My biggest question for this game is, how much does K-State have in the tank after that double OT marathon. I’m impressed with how many minutes those guys have played, and maybe Gus Johnson made them seem a little longer, but it has to catch up to you somewhere along the line. Maybe they are just young and can shake off the soreness or are in that good of condition. I think adrenaline could get them through this game, but Butler is playing out of their minds right now. Never bet against the team with the longest winning streak even if you really want to win the bet. This should be a good game. I’m REALLY looking forward to this one! Read more of this post

Filed under Sports Tagged with basketball, NCAA, vegas odds, gambling, preview, michigan state, lines, betting, predictions, vs., Tennessee Volunteers, March Madness, match ups, Kentucky Wildcats, West Virginia, Butler, Kansas State, Elite 8, Duke, Baylor

Doin College Lines

March 23, 2010 by chappy81 6 Comments

My outlook heading into the sweet 16; Two brackets gone miserably wrong, and one with plenty of hope. I never expect to win in the pick’ems, so I usually just root more for entertaining action. In the midst of all these games I realized I hadn’t done a preview for the Vegas lines in awhile, and what better time than during the always entertaining March Madness. Anyways, here’s how I see the eight games playing out.

Cornell (+10) Over Kentucky

Kentucky has cruised through the tourney so far beating both teams they played to a pulp by 29 and 30 points. They have the most “NBA” talent of any team left, and have shown why they are a #1 seed. They destroyed a sixteen seed, and a slumping nine seed. Their reward is to play the Cinderella Cornell squad who has one less tourney win (6) than Kentucky has championships (7). I could see Cornell covering the spread if they keep raining threes like they have, but their main concern will be to not let Kentucky run wild. This is much easier said than done. If their zone somehow slows the cats down, then we could see this Cinderella make some noise. I can’t believe some of the “experts” are picking them to win. I wouldn’t go that far, but maybe a single digit win for Kentucky.

Said it before and I'll say it again, Evan Turner's game reminds me of Brandon Roy's.

Ohio State (-4.5) Over Tennessee

I’ve been repping the Buckeyes pretty hard since I have them winning it all in my one bracket of hope. I probably just jinxed them, but watching Evan Turner nearly put up a triple double in their last game has me thinking there’s a chance he could single handedly get them to the final four. The Buckeyes will need to avoid making the silly turnovers like they did against Georgia Tech which was the sole reason the game even close. The Vols don’t boast a high powered offense, so it’ll be interesting to see if they can create some easy hoops with Ohio States’ mistake prone lapses during games. If this game is close, it will be because Turner was held in check, and that should be priority number one for the Vols.

West Virginia (-3.5) Over Washington

Although I’ll be rooting for an upset in this game, it’s pretty tough banking on that to happen. West Virginia is a MUCH more physical team than the Huskies first two opponents. I think the physical play will give their shooters a rough time. If Washington has any chance they will need Isiah Thomas and Quincy Pondexter to play flawlessly. West Virginia is somewhat offensively challenged, but there’s good news for the Mountaineers, the Huskies are ranked 295^th in free throws conceded. I see the Mountaineers being too much for the Huskies to handle.

Syracuse (-6) Over Butler

Doin Championship Lines

January 20, 2010 by chappy81 9 Comments

What a great playoffs so far, we’ve had one great game, one okay game, and six blowouts. It’s made me much less excited about the upcoming games, but hopefully now all of the “pretenders” are out of the mix. Now, crossing my fingers, we’ll get a couple hard fought games this weekend for the race to own the 32nd draft pick. For some reason I find Shaq’s ultimate fundraising/dunk contest much more exciting than anything I’ve watched over the last two weekends. It’s very unlikely to happen, but you never know! Alas, I went 1-3 last week, AGAIN. I’m now only 2-6 on my playoff picks, which doesn’t really surprise me, since at the outset I knew that picking the playoffs never works out for me. Maybe it’s given me just one more reason to not care as much about these playoffs, but when game time rolls around, I’m sure I’ll be ready to watch. As always the home teams are in bold.

New York Jets (+7.5) Over Indianapolis

I wouldn’t consider myself on the Jets bandwagon, but they are playing some really good football right now. Even though the Jets regular season win over the Colts was against the second stringers, it has to give them some confidence going into this road game. I do want the Colts to win, possibly because I’m already tired of the New York hype machine. The way the Jets shut down SD last week has me wondering if luck IS on their side. It was surely on the Colts side last week as both Peyton picks didn’t hurt them. The Jets situation makes me reminisce about the Steelers march as the 6^th seed to a Super Bowl title. I’m wondering how the Jets are going to attack this Colts D. We know what the Jets defense is going to do, and that will be everything they can to confuse and get pressure on Peyton. I know that the Colts haven’t been known over the years for any kind of run stopping capabilities, but this season they’ve held teams to 87 yards per game, which was good for third lowest yards allowed in the league. Since they are better at containing the running game than San Diego, they should be able to keep Greene and Thomas in check enough to pull out a close victory. They also did an amazing job on Fitz last week, so it seems like Braylon should have as tough a time as he does with actually catching the ball. I think the most interesting part of this game will be seeing how many times Peyton tests Revis Island. If Reggie Wayne has a big day, I have no shot at winning this bet. If the Colts jump out into an early lead, and my hopes rely on Sanchez, I have no chance of winning this pick. BTW, can you remember the last Championship game that was over a TD spread!?! Another thing I’m weary of in this game is the home team has won the AFC Championship three straight years.

New Orleans (-3.5) Over Minnesota

I couldn’t be more wishy washy with this pick since the line came out. Who knows by game time I might change my mind again. For now it’s the Saints though! I love the way they played like their old selves last week, even if it was at the expense of a terrible Arizona D. I’m thinking that it only takes one week to get your swagger back, and they looked rested and revived with plenty of swagger at home. I think the Saints D showed what they are capable of against a high powered offense, and have the tools to slow down another old man. I see the same type of energy this week coming out of them at home. I truly believe that the home field exists more in New Orleans than any other stadium, which has helped this team thrive over the season. If Minnesota wants to win this game, they’ll need to give AP the ball more. He needs to be more of a factor than Reggie Bush. I think because Bush was a factor last week it will keep the Vikings gambling defense a little more honest. Brees is as good as it gets on getting the ball out quickly, and I don’t see him ever holding the ball Romo-like in the pocket waiting for the mullet to destroy him. I’m really hoping this prediction is correct, so we aren’t subjected to watch/listen to Favre hype for two straight weeks. Another reason I’m not buying the Vikings is because I felt they had a pretty easy schedule, and seem prone to sucking in road games. They lost three of their last four road games, and the losses were to Carolina, Chicago, and Arizona. I’ll forgive the Arizona game, but the other losses shouldn’t have happened. It’s also when all the experts were wondering if they were even contenders. I’ve decided it’s because they just don’t play well on the road, and won’t this week either.

Filed under Sports Tagged with NFL, football, vegas odds, preview, Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, lines, betting, predictions, New Orleans Saints, Spreads, vs., match up, AFC Championship game, NFC Championship Game

Doin Lines Week 17

December 31, 2009 by chappy81 2 Comments

I made it through my first published season here on Doin Work (minus one week when I was gone). I have to say that I’m pretty happy with the results considering I made myself pick a few here and there just because I knew they’d be on TV and interesting. I found that when I was a more avid gambler, I never really won or lost much, which probably wasn’t a bad thing! This season pretty much reflected that. I went (3-2-1) last week bringing my season record to (45-42-3). Unless this week goes terribly wrong, I should end the regular season above .500. I’m extra scared of this last week of the season, because you never know which playoff teams will rest guys. It’s almost like betting on pre-season games… Obviously the teams that need to win to get in are full throttle, but the teams that are already in and have a limited need to win this week are kind of scary. Kind of like wondering what the new year will bring tomorrow scary. As always the home teams are in bold.

Buffalo (+8) Over Indianapolis

Will Peyton pout on the sideline this week too?

Will Peyton be pouting on the sideline again this week?

With headliners at the franchise quarterback spot, we have a hall of fame duo of Fitzpatrick versus Painter. If you aren’t already extra excited about this one, you might be the type of person that needs to cancel their Antiques Roadshow on the DVR, so you can re-watch this epic battle over and over for weeks to come. I forsee this being a battle for which QB can keep his rating over 50! I know that the Bills have locked up last place in the AFC East, and the Colts have locked up the 1^st seed in all of the AFC which might make some think it’s a meaningless game. I guess I’ll agree, but it DOES look like a good game to bet on. The Colts laid down for the Jets last week with a pissed off Peyton strolling the sidelines, so I think the Bills can cover this one. Speaking of the Jets, if they make it in the playoffs, they are the luckiest potential playoff team out there. They play the best team in the league (Colts), who rest guys, and then another playoff team (Bengals), that will likely rest up for their first round match up. Talk about a cake walk schedule at the end of the year against playoff teams! The Bills will be playing all their starters, and whether they play good or not it shouldn’t matter too much since they should easily beat the Colts 2^nd team.

Texans (-8) Over New England

The Texans have a shot at making the playoffs for the first time in their franchise history (8 years). I figure they are going to give it everything they have, and pull out victory. They’ve been playing very well as of late, and have given themselves an opportunity to make some history for themselves. Andre Johnson has been nothing short of unstoppable, and pulling in over 450+ yards in the last three games has him atop the league leader board in receiving yards. The Patriots on the other hand, will be a guessing game on what Bellichick will do. He’s been very evasive on what his plan is with his players and their playing time. My guess is he doesn’t play his starters for that long, and that would mean the Texans could put up huge points on a very weak 2^nd defensive unit from New England. I see the Pats going into pre-season mode. If they rest Brady, Moss, and Welker for most of the game, this one shouldn’t be all that close as the Texans run the score up in their home finale.

San Francisco (-7) Over St. Louis

There is no game on the slate I feel more comfortable picking. The Niners desperately want to end the season 8-8. They had a few unlucky breaks this season that kept them from being within reach of a playoff spot, but Singletary won’t let them lay down for the final game of the year. He’s instilled a strong sense of pride, that this organization was lacking since Mariucci left. The Rams desperately want to lock up the #1 overall pick. Tanking this game would give them just that. It’s hard to pick the Rams in any situation, but here it would be plain ridiculous as they seemed to have taken the last seven weeks off after nabbing their sole win of the season. The only buzz in St. Louis is: What’s up with Holliday? Did the Cards sign him yet? The 49ers do have a lot of weapons aside from Frank Gore now. Crabtree and Davis are good complements to Gore, and have shown that they can efficiently work within the passing game. Problem for them is Alex Smith isn’t the answer at QB. I think even if they still only had Gore and Patrick Willis, they could cover the spread without breaking a sweat. Mark this as a lock on your gambling slate!

Chicago (-3) Detroit

Speaking of not messing with draft pick chances, why wouldn’t the Lions lay down for one more game to secure the #2 pick in next years’ draft? I tried to answer this question, and figured that since there isn’t one reasonable answer, this has to be a safe pick. The Bears pretty much sucked for most of the year, whether it was Cutler, injuries, or bad coaching they looked like cubs not bears more often than not. Cutler has a chance to hit 30 interceptions for the season if he can throw four this week, but I think they’ll end this year on a high note as much as I don’t want to see it. A two game winning streak might give them a little confidence going into next year. I’ve tried to look at any possible bright side for them to this season, and there aren’t many. Last week, when they looked pretty good against the Vikings most likely was, their brightest moment of the year. It also gave me hope that the Vikings could get knocked out of the playoffs sooner than later, and end all of the Favre talks for a few months, until he decides if he wants to keep playing! I could never see Detroit beating the Vikes, so the Bears must be halfway decent. This is my 2^nd favorite pick of the week!

Oakland (+10.5) Over Baltimore

The Charlie Frye era in Oakland hasn’t been anything to write home about. I hope this era will mercifully end at the conclusion of this season. He played bad last week including 3 interceptions against a pretty bad Cleveland Browns team, but the Raiders play surprisingly better at home, and keep it close. Last season they ended Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes with an upset victory that had people hoping that Jamarcus had finally taken the next step. Sadly Raider Nation was given some false hope, and he regressed into oblivion. Frye did have a bright spot last week as he threw for 333 yards. If he can keep from throwing picks in the redzone, they should at least cover the spread. Hopefully they’ll come back with a heavy dose of Michael Bush, since he looks like their best running back. Baltimore’s playoff hopes hinge on a few things happening, but they need this win to get in. I think they might be watching what is happening in the other games more than the one they are in, and get upset. I’m not sure why, but I just don’t see why everybody likes Flacco so much. He’s more hot and cold than a bi-polar Texan without his gun. There’s always at least one WTF kind of upset game each week, and I’m predicting it will be this one!

Tennessee (-4.5) Over Seattle

The Titans played really bad against SD, or it could be that the Chargers ARE that good. I’m thinking that was the case, so there’s no reason not to pick them this week. I’m sure they’d love to end the year at 8-8 giving them plenty of hope for next season in the rejuvenated Vince Young era. Not relying on old man Collins to lead the way can only do wonders for this team. I see Chris Johnson getting his 128 rushing yards this week to get to 2,000 rushing yards on the season. I’m betting he will break a couple 50+ yard runs, that is unless, the endzone is too close when he breaks them! The Seahawks are a team that regresses each week, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that they’ll get blown out. Forsett still isn’t getting enough touches! When will this change? I guess not for this season, since they’ve all but mailed it in. Watching them play it’s amazing that they’ve even won 5 games this year. Julius Jones is not as good a play maker as Justin Forsett, get it right over there Jim Mora Jr.

Philadelphia (+3) Over Dallas

I’m not sure why, but lately I’ve become somewhat of an Eagles fan. Maybe it’s because they are on Fox every week or it might have something to do with one of my favorite college players (Desean Jackson) coming into his own in Philly. He’s been making a huge difference every time he gets the ball. Mcnabb looks like he’s moving into the been there done that mode, which he has, and has to be pretty comfortable playing that role by now. He also looks like he loves his latest crop of offensive weapons that he’s been given. Celek has even been making huge strides, and even though Mcnabb couldn’t quite make good on his promise of getting him into the pro bowl, Celek still had a great season either way. I keep waiting for Dallas to fall apart at the hinges, but it keeps not happening! It’s that empty feeling of hoping that your getting something for Xmas, but in the end you don’t get it. That’s how I feel every time I watch the Cowboys hoping for a loss. Maybe it’s more rooting for Romo to fail. Maybe it’s disliking Jerry Jones. It’s just fun to them fail I guess. I’m sure both these teams will be playing everybody, so if they happen to meet in the playoffs they will have home field over the other team. Let’s hope Romo fumbles another field goal attempt!

Filed under Sports Tagged with NFL, football, chicago bears, oakland raiders, vegas odds, gambling, preview, philadelphia eagles, san francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, lines, betting, predictions, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans, vs., St. Louis Rams, picks, match up, spread, Week 17, starters benched, final week

Doin Lines Week 16

December 24, 2009 by chappy81 7 Comments

Last week left much to be desired from my picks. Going (2-3-1) is like watching the Raiders or 49ers play, they look good for a few plays, but by the end we usually met with disappointment because of our overpaid 1st round quarterbacks. I’m still happy that I’ve stayed over .500 on the year, because I’ve never kept track for a full season, and am now starting to know why I never really win or lose much on betting on sports. I’m (42-40-2) on the year, so hopefully I can finish out this season strong! As always the home teams are in bold.

San Diego (-3) Over Tennessee

Could Santa bring me two presents this year? A Lakers loss coupled with a Chargers loss would make my sporting Christmas! Probably not. I think the Titans are a solid squad, but the Chargers don’t do a whole lot of charitable work this time of year. They are an amazing 17-0 in December with Rivers at the helm. Man, that was tough to write, since there might not be another guy in the league I sports-hate more. I guess I’m still completely shocked that Norv hasn’t blown a late game decision. When will it come!?! I doubt it will this week, since they would like to give themselves a Merry Christmas by earning that first round bye as the #2 seed. I hope I’m wrong and Chris Johnson puts up 270 rushing yards to get him to 2,000 on the year, and helps Vince go to 8-1 as a starter on the season. Either way this should be a fun game to watch, and hopefully Santa will bring the Bolts a lump of coal!

Green Bay (-14) Over Seattle

Last week was a fluke at least I think it was. The Pack lost a tough road game to the Steelers in a game that Big Ben set career game records that I don’t see him beating anytime soon. I think after being thoroughly outplayed the Packers D will step it up this weekend against a Seahawks team that has regressed, even with very low expectations going into the season. I know that they are waiting to get out there and re-establish everything that was going right before their meeting with Pittsburgh. Why do the Seahawks keep giving the ball to a uninspiring Julies Jones over a budding star in the wings in Justin Forsett is beyond me. I guess Jim Mora Jr. is as clueless as we all thought he was. If Green Bay can’t roll up the score on this terrible Seattle team at home, then they don’t deserve to make the playoffs.

Cincinnati (-13.5) Over Kansas City

I guess I was wrong last week. Cincy wasn’t overly emotional to hang with SD. I think I make the outside factors out to be more than they really were. Thinking back to the worst times in my life, I guess it didn’t really affect my work all that much. Maybe I might not have wanted to be there, but I still did what I needed to do just like the Bengals performance. I think KC officially gave up on this year about week 12. They decided to start just letting teams score at will. Three of their last four opponents have hit the 40+ point mark, and the only game that was remotely close was against the lowly Bills where they still lost by 6 at home. I can proudly say that the Raiders aren’t the worst team in the division for once! I was happy to see the NFL didn’t fine any of the players that paid tribute to the fallen Chris Henry. If they had, the NFL would get three lumps of coal in their stocking from Chad himself! Read more of this post

Filed under Sports Tagged with NFL, football, chicago bears, gambling, preview, Minnesota Vikings, Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers, lines, betting, predictions, vegas, odds, Kansas City Cheifs, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers, New York Giants, Spreads, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans, vs., Christmas Game, Week 16

Doin College Football Lines

December 2, 2009 by chappy81 4 Comments

I’m far from a college football expert, or could really even tell you much about many of the teams, but I am pretty pumped to see the obvious Bama and Gators match up, and one of my all time favorite rivalries the Civil War Oregon vs. Oregon State! MCeezy wrote about how rivalry week is somewhat deceiving, but these two games are about as heated as rivalries can get! Hopefully they will play out that way! Same with my NFL picks the home teams are in bold.

Oregon State (+9.5) Over Oregon

I don’t think the Beavers will win this game, but Moevao has said that they are looking for revenge from last years upset. I didn’t feel it was a big upset last year, but what do I know! I feel they will pull out all the tricks they have in the playbook to keep this one close, and hopefully it ends up like 2007′s double OT battle. I understand that the Ducks are the more talented team, but in a rivalry anything can happen. Also besides the Beavers having to contain Lamichael James and Jeremiah Masoli they should see a small dose of Legarrette Blount in his first game back from the suspension. He should give them that big back to pound the football on the ground, which they haven’t had most of this season. MCeezy predicted he’d be back for their most important game, and it looks like he was right! I can’t figure out why this line is so high since the Beavers ARE at home, and ARE a good team!

Me hoping I can curse the Gators by chomping on one!

Me trying to curse the Gators by chomping on one!

Alabama (+6) Over Florida

I guess I’m writing about this game because I was in Florida last week, and it seems like it was all I really heard about for most of the week! After hearing the hype over there I’ve decided to pick my second straight underdog! I think that in college football the home field makes much more of a difference than it does in the pros. I’m not confident that Bama can actually pull this one out, but since they are the #2 team in the country they deserve to be at least within a FG on the spread at home! Florida and their 22 straight wins will probably win this game, but I like many others love to see an upset. I don’t dislike Tebow especially since he has proven that he is an amazing leader, but i don’t have quite the same type of love as Sportsguyby has for him! Losing Dunlap to the DUI, should make it a little easier for Bama to move the ball, and should give them a little more time to throw. I see this one ending closer than last years SEC title game!

Filed under Sports Tagged with alabama, Beavers, betting, college football, Crimson Tide, Ducks, DUI, Dunlap, florida, Gators, Lamichael James, legarrette blount, lines, National Championship, NCAA, oregon, oregon state, preview, Rose Bowl bid, SEC, Spreads, Tim Tebow

Doin Lines Week 11

November 19, 2009 by chappy81 3 Comments

Can I get a Kool Aid Guy, OH YEAH! I went 5-2 last week, which brings me back close to .500 at 27-28-1 on the season! I have to thank blogmate MCeezy for helping my week start right, and jinxing the 49ers to cover by betting on the Bears! I guess now that I’m not working I have a little bit more time to make my picks more informed! Anyways, let’s hope it’s another good week, and as always the home teams are in bold.

Carolina (-3) Over Miami

Did Carolina finally decide to start playing this year? Last weeks’ surprising scoring output wasn’t just within their normal means of running the ball keeping it out of Jake’s turnover prone hands. They actually threw the ball for a good portion of the game, and Delhomme actually came out of it without throwing a pick! They beat an up and down Atlanta team that lost Turner part way through, but it was impressive to me nonetheless. It shows me that Atlanta isn’t all that good, and maybe Ryan is a little overrated. Ryan has been on a downward spiral for the past few weeks and has shown that there is definitely room for improvement. The loss of Ronnie Brown is the biggest factor in this game. He’s their best offensive player. Without him on the field how will they run the wildcat? With Pat White and Rickey Williams all game? I don’t see that having the same type of success as having Brown man the show. Since the Dolphins can throw the ball about as well as the Big Tuna, they should be one dimensional enough for the Panthers to stop.

Jacksonville (-8.5) Over Buffalo

What the hell is going on here? The Jags and Panthers in two straight picks! They both earned cheerleader pictures earlier this season! I guess we’re finally seeing a little of that parody thing they always talk about within the NFL. Mike Sims-Walker actually looks like a decent receiver, and Torry Holt is always dependable for a few grabs during the game. Garrard has managed just enough through the air lately to open up those holes for Mojo to run through, and he is doing just THAT! He’s scoring nearly twice a week, and should have last week but just missed in the fantasy kneel down heard round the world! Buffalo doesn’t seem to present any problems to stopping him, so he should have a big day. Buffalo still hasn’t named a coach since firing Jaron, but I don’t think that will make much of a difference unless the new coach or interim coach can put a completely new offensive playbook in before Sunday. Their conservative style has made them even worse than I imagined they’d be! Maybe they should just let TO coach, you know he’d be all over those refs all game even if he didn’t know what he was talking about. This already sounds better than the TO show!

Indianapolis (-1) Over Baltimore

I wonder if this was supposed to be the documentary on how he killed a man!

I haven’t really seen Baltimore look all that impressive in the games I’ve watched them play in. Even against the lowly Browns, they didn’t look great, which is opposite of how teams are supposed to look against them! Indy was dominated for most of the game against the Pats, and thanks to a lucky/risky move by Belichick they squeaked out with the win, and the Pats still covered for me! A solid win win situation! Indy hasn’t blown teams out very often this year, but I think they can win this game, and it will be by more than one point. Peyton should be extra pumped up for this one, as it looks like this could be their best opponent left on the schedule. Peyton has owned the Ravens going 6-2 against them, and with the announcement of Baltimore losing Suggs is surely going to hurt this Ravens defense squad. Ray can say what he wants about Peyton, but in the end he won’t be able to stop him. The undefeated season is looking more and more within reach for them!

Minnesota (-10.5) Over Seattle

Beanie Wells made an impact last week, and showed that Seattle can’t stop the run even against a team that doesn’t run. That might be pretty convenient for one Mr. Adrian Peterson. He seems to do very well against teams that don’t wrap up backs. Seattle at home can compete, but on the road I see them laying down early especially when Hasselbeck has to fear the Jared Allen and his mullet! With two of Seattle’s CB’s probably out, there is no way to convince me that this will be anything other than a blowout. Who knows, maybe even Tarvaris will be able to show off a few things that he’s learned from Brett at the end of this game!

New Orleans (-11.5) Over Tampa Bay

I think last week’s speed bump of St. Louis was a little too close for the Saints comfort level. This week should be different, after that reality check that showed them that any team can show up on a given week and could possibly take them down. So they better be ware that even the Bucs can win a game. I think Colston will bounce back nicely this weekend since he only had two receptions for 17 yards against a horrible Rams secondary, and it was his second straight bad game. He’s too good to be kept down for long. Brees hasn’t looked super sharp lately, so this feels like as good a week as any to break out as well! This might be a snorefest unless you like seeing the Saints put up points. It might be fun to watch them run up the score, but probably only if you happen to some fantasy players going in the game.

Denver (+3) Over San Diego

I guess this pick all depends on whether Orton starts or not, but I’m going out on a limb and assume he will play. I know Denver has been falling apart faster than a leper in warm water, but I think they’ll pull out a few extra tricks in this heated divisional game. Even if they don’t there’s no reason not to take the points for this home team. This game could go a long way to deciding the West, so I don’t see any problems with both teams being fired up. Even though the Broncos have lost three straight weeks and seem to be in meltdown mode, they have to break out of the funk sooner than later. If they lose this game it will be by a small amount so take the points. I hope they win, NOT because I like them in any way, shape, or form, but I just want to see Rivers cry a little. That would make my weekend!

Tennessee (+4.5) Over Houston

Tennessee is starting to roll now that they have Vince back in the mix. I’ve always been a believer that Kerry Collins was a retard since his days as a Raider. He couldn’t even get the ball to Randy f**ing Moss, so that just shows you how bad he is. The move to Vince, seems to have stabilized the offense. I don’t see them running away with it, but they look like they’ve righted the ship! I always believe in Fisher, he’s been one of my favorite coaches of all time! I don’t know what Houston’s deal is, I actually had them as a playoff team this pre-season, and at times they’ve looked like a playoff team, but at other times they’ve looked like Tennesee did at the beginning of the year, TERRIBLE! Just take the points when you aren’t sure!

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Doin Lines Week 10

November 12, 2009 by chappy81 6 Comments

Beth Rams Cheerleader Last week was rough, but I can’t say I didn’t expect it. There were a lot of tough games to pick from, and since there were lot of the crappy teams had a bye week it made it even tougher. I went 2-4 last week, which brings my record to an awful 22-26 on the season. It has obviously made my picks look less than reliable at this point, but hopefully I’ll get some redemption this week picking a couple extra games. Too bad there’s a game tonight or I’d wait to put these picks up another day, but as always the home teams are in bold.

San Francisco (-3) Over Chicago

Vernon Davis hurdle stiff arm The 49ers and the Bears have both been very inconsistent this season and neither looks to be a playoff team at this pint, but then again everybody changes their mind from week to week… The 49ers have done well against very good teams, so I feel like they should pull this one out. Vernon even called their D-line weak, and said they were going to destroy them! Pretty strong words, but he later took back some of the thunder on Twitter which was disappointing. I think Chicago’s O-line is the biggest problem as Forte can’t get going and Cutler spends most of the time on his back. The 49ers kept Indy in check, so I can’t see any reason they won’t against this cubs I mean Bears offense in check.

Denver (-3.5) Over Washington

I can’t say Denver has done much the past couple weeks to make me overly confident in them, and it seems like nearly everyone has jumped off their bandwagon for the time being. Who knows though after this week everybody might be back on that bandwagon! The Skins however are the perfect team to get you back on track after a couple of rough losses. I doubt the Broncos, now struggling defense, will have much of a problem stopping this disastrous offense. Sorry no Zorn jokes this week. I think I’ve beat up on him enough in my other weekly picks posts! Pick Denver with confidence.

Cincinnati (+7) Over Pittsburgh

Cedric Benson diving TD I’m kind of surprised that Cincy is a seven point dog in this one. The Steelers have played close games nearly every week, and haven’t been the model of consistency this year. Probably because everybody guns a little harder against the defending champs. I don’t see them covering against a team that is 5-0 as an underdog, which is exactly what this Bengals team is. I don’t think they’ll have the same kind of success they had against the Ravens, but I can see them winning outright, so there’s no reason not to take a touchdown’s worth of points! Pittsburgh doesn’t win these kind of games pretty, so I see this one coming down to a FG.

New Orleans (-13.5) Over St. Louis

Not much to say for this one. The Aints are long forgotten these days in New Orleans, and they now have a team that looks like a super bowl contender! If you pick the Rams in this game, you WILL lose. This is my Miller Lite “can’t make the spread high enough pick of the week”. I could see the Rams putting up a fight, but as soon as that first quarter is over, it might be hard to keep it close from there on out! The Rams are the first team to earn two cheerleaders at the top of my picks… Congrats Rams fans!

Kansas City (+2) Over Oakland

Darren Mcfadden Raiders This pick goes against a lot of my personal gambling rules that I’ve made for myself, such as don’t bet on my team or bet on two crappy teams. Alas, I have to do it! This probably won’t be a “watchable” game for most fans, but the last time these two teams met, KC should have won the game, but blew it in the end. I can’t say enough bad things about the Raiders right now, but they are getting a few key guys back this week that may or may not help them including McFadden, Schillens, and Gallery. Every time I pick the Raiders to cover they lose, so maybe I can jinx my crappy team into a win as I’d rather lose the bet.

Arizona (-8.5) Over Seattle

Anquan Boldin Cardinals Well, I’ve gone back and forth on whether Arizona is for real or not. They like to mess with me by showing up only when I pick against them. Is that a sign to pick Seattle this week? Probably not, since Seattle hasn’t really shown that they can do anything well for very long let alone a whole game against a team that IS going somewhere. Warner can win a game with 5 TD’s for them and he can lose a game with 5 INT’s, and I don’t think the Seattle D has enough to get 5 picks. Boldin is supposed to be back as well, and I’m thinking since he’s been so pissed off that he didn’t play last week he’s going to have a big game against a not so great secondary.

New England (+3) Over Indianapolis

I hate picking the Pats to win this game, because I truly do despise them. They have been playing very well lately, and it’s not just the offense, their defense seems to have finally figured themselves out! I don’t really want to pick this game since it is beginning to be a solid rivalry between the two teams that always plays out in the close game fashion, so I’m taking the points. It was hard picking with my gut instead of who I want to win. I think the Pats will be extra fired up to end the Colts unbeaten streak, and will have some Belichick surprises for ready. This should be the game of the week!

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Doin Lines Week 9

November 5, 2009 by chappy81 4 Comments

Rachel_Watson Bucs Cheerleader

Last week was good to get out of the way! The teams that had been covering all season (Indy and New Orleans) finally let me down. Oh well, I’m sure they could care less that their undefeated streak vs. the spread was broken. I had a really hard time last week flip flopping on my choices all the way up to game day, and this week looks like I might be having more tough decisions again. I went 2-4 and now am 20-22-1 on the year. You know how there are people that smell so bad that you can almost taste their awfulness? That tasty smell are the teams that have a week 9 bye; Oakland, Cleveland, Buffalo and St. Louis. What makes this week even more interesting is that there are a lot of 10+ point spreads with the mentioned teams sitting it out! I guess that shows you the parity in the league this season. As usual the home teams are in bold.

Cincinnati (+3) Over Baltimore

Carson's been with Chad long enough to understand him... Or not!

The cardiac cats always seem to be in very tight games whether they end up pulling out the W or having a heartbreaker. Baltimore played an inspired game last week blowing out the Broncos and showed that they are still the force that many people put as the best team in the league early on. Baltimore seems to have a hard time putting in efforts like that in back to back weeks, so I see this being a close one. Cincy showed some promising flashbacks from that very explosive offense they had a couple of years ago. I don’t see Palmer and Benson having that same kind of success they had against the Bears, because this Ravens unit is better. It does look like their offense is rejuvenated, and with the presence of a running game they can move the ball late to tire out the elders on the Baltimore D. Since the Bengals are at home it’s tough for me not to take the points, especially since I could see them winning outright!

Atlanta (-10) Over Washington

Washington is arguably the worst team in the league, and I doubt they have enough in them to pull out any kind of upset on the road or even have enough defense to keep this one close. Atlanta is coming off a short week, but who cares when you get to play a team that can’t seem to do anything right. Matt Ryan and Gonzo should shred the middle of this defense all day long. If Zorn was a brand, he should probably start looking for a bailout plan. It’s been so bad in DC that the fans aren’t even allowed to bring in signs that make fun of this pathetic team. If I wasted my money to go watch my team lose games, I would demand the right to bring whatever sign I want into the stadium! I forecast Atlanta going up big early, and heavy doses of Turner throughout the second half.

Announcers talking about Brett Favre on Minnesota’s Bye Week (-50) Over the amount of coverage the Rams receive for the rest of the season.

I mean this line is self explanatory, but I would seriously bet on this! This would be exclude plays and mentions of the Rams defense getting shredded against a good team!

Green Bay (-10) Over Tampa Bay

Ah, we move onto the only team left that still could match the Lions amazing winless record. The Bucs haven’t really shown that they even want to be out there on Sundays, and especially don’t show up against any team that is deemed competent. I wonder if you’ll be able to hear Packers fans in the stands since there’s no way this one will be sold out. Tampa does have an amazing crop of cheerleaders though, so fortunately Rachel won’t be the only one we see this season! It could very well be a fantasy firework show from Aaron Rodgers who has put up big numbers against some of the best of defenses in the league, and going up against one of the worst I foresee a 5 TD day. I bet the Packers D might even out score the Bucs in this one.

New Orleans (-13) Over Carolina

Darren Sharper interception I was disappointed to see the Saints not cover last weekend. I guess it was the opposite of the week before where Sharper snagged a pick 6 to cover with two minutes to go. This weekend, Atlanta scored in the last two minutes to cut the lead to 8 which killed the beating the spread hope, oh those Vegas guys always get you back (shaking fist in the air)! It was easily the Miller Lite disappointing moment of my Monday. New Orleans has proved they are good at two things. Scoring points, and putting pressure on opposing offense and making them make mistakes. Carolina’s offense just happens to have Jake Delhomme, who is turning the ball over like Matsui getting RBI’s. NOT a good thing going on anytime they are trailing, so I see no reason to doubt that the Saints will have neutralized the Panthers running game by being up by 21 at the half and forcing them to put it in Delhomme’s hands.

San Francisco (-4) Over Tennessee

I don’t really like this pick that much, but since the Niners held Indy in check I don’t see any reason that they can’t take the Titans down during their miserable season. The SF offense has looked a little better as of late with Alex Smith taking over. The emergence of Crabtree last weekend coupled with Vernon Davis’s breakout year it has to mean only better things are in store for them! Having some threats will even open up some more room for Frank Gore to run, and maybe give him a little less wear and tear so he can stay in the lineup. Tennessee has officially fallen into the crappy team section, which confirmed my preseason thought that they were a fluke last year. A Kerry Collins led team is never the way to go! They finally figured that out and threw Vince in there, but it doesn’t seem to matter at this point. The only thing exciting about them is Chris Johnson.

Philadelphia (-3) Over Dallas

Frank Drebin Naked Gun This should be a good one. I think it all comes down to Romosexual and whether he shows up or not. The Cowboys are so reliant on him, it’s pathetic. Any game he plays bad in they never win. In the always unfriendly City of Brotherly Love, I have my doubts of him settling down in this one. Frank Drebin, I mean Wade Phillips is lucky anytime they are successful. He doesn’t put them in good positions to succeed, but just gets plain lucky. On the other side Philly looks about as good as they ever have. Team chunky soup was supposed to be explosive because of Westbrook and Vick, and Brian has been in and out and Vick is ineffective thus far. The good news is they haven’t needed them as they have weapons all over the field, in Desean, Maclin, and McCoy. Mcnabb is always on the verge of Romo type stinker game too, but it usually comes on the heals of an injury opposed to randomly popping up, except that Oakland one he got a pass since the offensive line forgot they were blocking that day.

Filed under Sports Tagged with 2009, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, betting, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, football, gambling, Green Bay Packers, lines, matchup, New Orleans Saints, NFL, philadelphia eagles, picks, predictions, preview, san francisco 49ers, Spreads, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, vs., Washington Redskins, week 9

Doin Lines Week 8

October 29, 2009 by chappy81 5 Comments

If you ever have a chance, you should check out the Jacksonville cheer leading squad. They have as much talent as the Colts and Saints.

Last week went as expected with an easy slate of games on the menu. Three of these were easier to bet on than picking the sun to rise from the east. It yielded my best week in the last four going 4-2-1. It kind of sucks that I’m .500 on the year when there are so many crappy teams out there, that should make this an easy gambling season. Alas, I find this weeks slate a little tougher, so I hopefully I’m not setting myself up for another sub par performance. Oh well, we’ll see if the 2nd half of the season treats me a little kinder. As usual the home teams are in bold.

Chicago (-13.5) Over Cleveland

Not that I think Chicago is all that great, but I do think Cleveland is that bad. I was pretty shocked to see Cedric Benson and Carson Palmer destroy the Bears defense this past weekend. Tommie Harris Chicago Bears I guess that’s how important Tommie Harris is to the Beard D, who, by the way practiced, and should be back this weekend. Derek Anderson is the proud owner of the leagues lowest QB rating, which can’t go down, right? I guess it could, but I think this should give the Bears D some much needed confidence after an ugly loss. Cutler hasn’t exactly been a Pro Bowler in Chicago, but maybe they just don’t know what to do with a quarterback since it’s been so long since they had one. It’s also a strong possibility that Cutlers’ receivers were just THAT good in Denver. They’re obviously are doing fine without him, so maybe Cutler was a little overrated. Matt Forte has been a ghost in the offense this year, but I’ll give both of their crappy starts a pass. They’ve had a fairly difficult schedule so far this season. Having the hapless Browns at home should be a good cure for them. Remember they beat Detroit 48-24 two weeks ago, so they are good enough to run the score up on crappy teams!

Houston (-3.5) Over Buffalo

I don’t know whats wrong with Buffalo. They looked like they were moving in the right direction last season, but this year just like Jamarcus, they’ve regressed. Unfortunately for them, the peak of their season may have come in week 1 when they nearly beat Patriots. They haven’t really shown they can run or throw the ball since, which makes me think they won’t be breaking out of the funk. Even TO has said that his numbers are “pathetic” (18 receptions 242 yards with one TD), which shows that even the places they were supposed to improve are regressing to in Buffalo. Houston almost blew a lead last week against SF, but the Niners offense looks better than the Bills, sadly. If Houston can get their defense straightened out, they could be a playoff team. I see Andre Johnson tearing up this suspect secondary all game long, which makes this a pretty easy pick.

Green Bay (-3) Over Minnesota

This is probably the pick Im most worried about. I missed it the last time these two teams played each other by a couple points as Minnesota won. I think this game will be more emotional for Favre in his first return to Lambeau on the opposing sideline. Brett Favre Aaron Rodgers I know I reminisce whenever I go back to a former workplace whether its good or bad memories there are emotional ties, so I can’t see Brett being any different since he spent more time there than anyone expected. I’m looking for the crowd to get to him since they know him better than anyone. Rodgers on the other hand, looked bad in their last meeting as he was getting knocked down more times than Quagmire has pickup lines. I think he won’t be holding the ball quite as long this time around, and hopefully won’t try to force as many throws. Plus, wasnt it this time last year everybody loved the Jets because they were 4-2? I’m getting excited, it looks like Favre could still be on the path to mediocrity, and he’s one Charles Woodson interception away from losing two in a row. It might just be me, but don’t you think Aaron Kampman and Jared Allen should start a butt rock band 90′s style? Sure, Kampman cut his hair, but everyone got a glimpse of the long headbanger hair in his first year he can grow it!

Indianapolis (-12.5) Over San Francisco

It’s tough to tell who is the best team in the league between the Colts and the Saints, but both teams have been amazing. Austin Collie TD Catch I’ve been riding the Niners bandwagon for most of the season, but I’ll have to step off their train since they’ve lost for me two weeks in a row. I’m sure the Colts will give them all they can handle. Austin Collie has slipped into a very nice complement receiver to Reggie Wayne. The Colts defense is also going to get back Bob Sanders which should give them a little extra swagger. The Niners defense has been pretty good this season, but they haven’t faced an offense as good as the Colts. If the 49ers can somehow get the running game going, their stagnant offense might start producing. I’m not sure I buy the Alex Smith is a worthy first round pick yet, but he can’t be much worse than that Shaun Hill was under center.

Arizona (-10) Over Carolina

I’ve come to the realization that Arizona is in fact for real, and making it to the Super Bowl on a hot streak. Their defense is actually pretty strong, and they may not need to put up 35+ every week to win. Carolina, has been very disappointing to say the least, and I thought they’d rebound and get it together, but it seems like they have given up on this season. Jake Delhomme could be one of the worst QB’s in the league at the moment, and has shown nothing to think the contrary. They have a running game, but what good is that when you can’t throw the ball. What could be worse for Panther fans? They traded away their 2010 first round pick to the 49ers in the Everett Brown trade last off season. Sorry Carolina, but you’ve earned the hottie of the week!

Bye week (-28) Over Jim Zorn

Jim Zorn coach This guy can’t win in the media or on the field. I kind of feel bad for him, but at the same time I don’t really care. The Bye week should be a tough opponent, but I still see him losing popularity and responsibilities before their next game!

New Orleans (-10) Over Atlanta

Maybe I hyped Atlanta too much last weekend, so they showed me up by throwing in a stinker against Dallas. I really don’t think Dallas is for real, since they only are in the game when Romo plays well. There’s really only a 50/50 chance of that. I think I might have picked the Saints every week so far this season, and miraculously they’ve covered every time! Thank you Darren Sharper for that pick six with two minutes to go last week! Darren, you made the Miller Lite gambling cover of the week! I don’t like Bush saying they can go undefeated, but looking at them at this point in the season it’s hard for me to say they can’t. I see them coming out strong in this one after being worked in the first half of last weeks game.

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Doin Lines Week 7

October 22, 2009 by chappy81 13 Comments

Kate is my favorite Rams Cheerleader

Hmm, maybe I’m not cut out to do this anymore for our blog. It seems like my record is going downhill faster than Southern California is getting pushed out of the playoffs. After going 2-4 last week, I’m under .500 for the first time on the season at 14-16. I missed three games by 2 or less points last week which really hurt, and made me realize once again that Vegas is way too good at making these lines! I guess it always goes in waves with football, so good news is I’m due for a winning weekend after two miserable ones. Anyways, here are my week 7 picks, and as always the home teams are in bold.

Indianapolis (-13) Over St. Louis

Hmmm, REAL tough one here! I think I’d give early MVP Peyton after a bye week 21 points over the Rams. I don’t think the Colts will overlook the Rams, the way the formerly undefeated Eagles overlooked the Raiders last weekend. It’s nearly impossible for teams to compete with the Colts when they have two weeks to prepare, so this should be a massacre. I doubt this game will be worth watching, but it’ll sure be worth betting on! If the Rams weren’t close to the league lead in penalties, I might give them a small shot to cover, but as of now I’m putting this one down as my lock of the week. On a side note, if you’re wondering why there’s a beautiful lady at the top the last two weeks, I’ve run out of interesting pictures of chalk lines, so I’ll be picking a hot cheerleader/fan of the losing team in my favorite pick of the week. So in case you were looking for something positive about Rams, at least there’s Kate…

I'd really like to see Cribbs on a good team.

Green Bay (-7) Over Cleveland

I won’t make the same mistake twice of underestimating the Green Bay offense against a crappy team, and the Browns are just that. Last weekend made me realize that the Packers are at least organized enough to destroy the lower class of the league. This has the same set up as last weeks Lions matchup, and unless the Browns get a few kickoff returns from Cribbs they might not even get on the scoreboard. If I were Cleveland, I’d lock Joshua up since he seems to be the only thing right about the Browns these days. Anyways, I think Aaron Rodgers will keep fantasy owners, Green Bay fans, and gamblers happy with a big game similar to last week. This unfortunately is another unwatchable game on the weekend slate, and it looks like were already going to go three for three on the snore-a-meter with my next pick.

New England (-14.5) Over Tampa Bay (London)

Brady finally put up those video game numbers that we’ve been waiting all season for.

Brendan Frasor's best all-time role

It’s pretty obvious he wasn’t missing those deep routes with Randy this weekend, so I look for that connection to finally start getting some consistency that we once saw. The only thing that makes me hesitate picking the Pats in this one is that last years game in London, the field was a total mess, and produced a very low scoring snoozefest. I haven’t really read up on whether or not they’ve made adjustments to the field to handle this game, but you have to figure it’s at least improved. With Tampa giving up as many points as the other team wants to score, it’s impossible not to pick the Pats here. The Bucs are about as well rounded as Brendan Fraser in the beginning of Encino man. If it wasn’t in London, this might very well be blacked out.

San Francisco (+3) Over Houston

I guess I jumped on the San Francisco bandwagon sometime early this year, and can’t seem to get off. They’re 4-1 vs. the spread, so you have to take the points when they’re given to you. The bye week came at a perfect time for them as they came off a loss that they really didn’t show up for. I look for them to bounce back in the same way Atlanta did against them after their bye week. I’m sure Singletary had them working out extra hard on their so called break. It’s also the first time we’ll see Crabtree on the field. Whether he makes a difference or is even on the field much remains to be seen, but they did open up a roster spot for him this week. Either way it’s just nice knowing that Hammer is on his side, and is ready to help show him the path to blowing boatloads of cash quick! I’m not quite sure I understand the Texans this year. They lose to Jacksonville and Arizona, but beat Cincy and NY Jets. They are about as up and down my picks this season, and only play well every other week, I like this as their off week, and losing to the 49ers outright.

Oakland (+6) Over NY Jets

Mark Sanchez Mexican Jets Ah, and now to my Raiders. What a win last weekend! I really didn’t see it coming. I guess I want to thank the media and Giants players for getting those wall posting comments up in the Raiders locker room. It was a great defensive effort, and we finally see the reason that they made the trade for Seymour. Although they are more successful against teams that pass like the Chargers and Eagles, but struggle against balanced teams like the Giants and Broncos. Even with NY having a fairly balaced attack with a very good running game, the Raiders did beat them last year, which makes me believe that they can do the same this year or at least keep it close at home. Even though JaMarcus didn’t give me any added confidence in the offense last weekend, they did prove that they can convert a few third downs to at least give their defense a solid rest. I have a feeling they will bring the pressure once again against a shaky Sanchez. Did you see him on the sideline last weekend? I thought he was going to cry. If he’s closing in on the crying point, the New York media is going to tear him up. Hopefully it won’t come to that for him. Anyways, I’m sure Raiders fans will make him feel right at home after he throws his first pick.

Matt Ryan Throwing Falcons Atlanta (+4) Over Dallas

HOTlanta has been impressive this year, and I feel are being slightly under rated by the line makers this weekend by giving Dallas more than a FG for their home field advantage. The Falcons only subpar performance of the season was against the Patriots, and since that stumble they’ve been rolling. Their defense is better than I thought it would be this year, and is carrying them nearly as much as their highly touted offense. I see them putting up some big numbers against an over rated Dallas team. Wade Phillips will sink this ship sooner rather than later, so brace yourself for a possible losing season in Dallas. I think having Wade as the coach automatically discounts whatever benefits that a bye week has for a team. I mean they barely escaped an awful Kansas City team, and they’re getting four points against a better team!?! I guess that’s what happens if you’re a hometeam in your billion dollar supermall stadium. I guess a lot of fans in Texas are betting on their team, and raising that line.

New Orleans (-6.5) Over Miami

As much as I boasted about New Orleans in my best of the undefeated teams post, I’m a little concerned about giving up 7 points to a road team. Yes they beat down the Giants in their friendly confides, but this team has to have a let down at some point this season. Miami can control the clock for long periods of time, and is bound to have a few new wildcat variations in store for this weekend coming off a bye week. I’d be a little higher on Miami and their two game winning streak if they had beat teams that were close to New Orleans caliber. The Jets win was impressive, but if I’m going to pick the Raiders to cover in that one, I have to pick the team I dubbed the best in the league. The Dolphins defense is an aging one, and Brees will outsmart them whether it’s checking to a run or bombing it down field.

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Doin Lines Week 6

October 15, 2009 by chappy81 9 Comments

This picture might be better to look at than watch the Raiders play this week.

I think she might be more accurate than JaMarcus... We should give her a shot at the starting job, right?!?

Ouch, I think that was about as good of a week as Rush Limbaugh’s had in the press. Just like his run it’s not the first time it’s happened! I think I must’ve been distracted making my picks like JaMarcus reviewing the game plan with a burger sitting in front of him. A rocky 1-6 weekend has led me to my first, uh oh, did I jinx myself by thinking I had it figured out!?! It’s a second straight week I’ve taken a Brady like roughing the QB ankle biter hits to my once amazing record. Now I’m 17-14, which isn’t anything to write home about. In all honesty, I expect better from myself. I think this was the week I was talking about on Doin Lines Week 4, when I thought a Brad Lidge type meltdown was coming. It did happen, but strangely it was a Ryan Madson type meltdown two weeks later, weird… Anyways, it’s good to get that bad week out of the way, and now I’m ready for a big comeback this Sunday! Here are my Week 6 picks. Same as before the home teams are in BOLD.

Minnesota (-3) Over Baltimore

It’s funny how after the first couple weeks of the season everybody had the Ravens as the best team in the league, which I really never agreed with. Minnesota will be tested in this game, but I think they have the firepower to get it done against the Ravens D. I really like how balanced they are. It used to be all AP, but now defenses have to scheme around the passing attack as well. Speaking of AP, he hasn’t had one of those freakish highlight reel games in awhile, so maybe he’s due. Chances are against that against Ray Ray and the Ravens, but he is the best back in the league so it’s always possible.

Chiefs (+6.5) Over Redskins

Jason Campbell looks confused way too much for me to have any confidence in him.

Whatever coach, just give me the damn play!

Exqueeze me? Baking powder? Did Vegas give the Redskins a touchdown spread? The Skins haven’t shown me enough to prove that they are worthy of being nearly a 7 point favorite. They barely escaped the Lambs by two! If the Skins showed any life against the really easy schedule they’ve had so far I might pick them, but when I honestly think KC could win this game outright I may as well take some points with that. It’s not that I think KC is close to good this year, but it seems like they actually are showing up to compete every game, and I do see them playing hard in this one. Kansas City gives up a lot of points, but Washington just can’t move the ball no matter who their playing. I look for this to be about as entertaining as last week’s Bills and Browns suckfest, so put your money on KC and just check the ticker.

New Orleans (-3) Over NY Giants

This is a tough one, and even though they both came off the bye weeks, I have to take the Saints at home. You might say the Giants played last week, but it was against the Raiders, so it was just a long scrimmage for them. This is a pretty good pregame ritual!

You could argue that the Saints have played better teams so far, and that would be true, as four of the Giants games were against teams with a combined 3-13 record. So by strength of schedule the Saints are the better team. I like good teams coming off bye weeks with plenty of time to study their opponent. Drew Brees with lots of time to prepare sounds like a setup for one of those MVP case building games. His crazy chant and dance ought to fire up the home team enough to put up 10 a quarter and give this Giants D something to actually test them. With Eli’s sort of injury, it’ll be interesting to see if the Saints bring some pressure early to test his durability.

Pittsburgh (-14) Over Cleveland

I’m not sure I buy that the Steelers are good this year, but I do buy that they are two touchdowns better than the Browns. I’m still kind of shocked that the Browns are even in the win column, but someone had to win that game last week. I think Pittsburgh will blow this one open early, as their passing attack looked pretty good last week. I feel like they’ve been playing down to their opponent, but they’re due for a big blowout. It looks like Mendenhall is getting some nice big holes to run through lately, and I think that’s why the passing game is opening up for them. The Browns boast a 32^nd ranked rush defense so I’m hoping we get to see Ben scramble for some always fun awkward white guy running moments.

Detroit (+13.5) Over Green Bay

I’m not sure why I like them to cover. Maybe it’s a little because I’m turning into a mini Lions fan from a gambling standpoint, or maybe it’s because they only lost by 8 to the defending champs. Either way, I like taking the points against an inconsistent Green Bay team. Do I think Detroit will win? Doubtful, but seeing their new frisky attitude shows me that they are starting to be considered a “team” instead of a “speed bump”. Also, since the Pack have had such a hard time protecting Rodgers it helps this choice, because the Lions pass rush is actually pretty good. I also think the surprisingly good Lions running game could do well against a bad run defense. Hopefully Megatron will be on the field, he’s definitely worth about 6 points to in this game.

Seattle (-3) Over Arizona

I still think that both these teams suck, but one has to win, and I think it will be the home team as they get healthier. Seattle has the 9^th ranked passing defense, so they should be able to at least somewhat contain the Arizona passing attack. On the other side, the Cards have the worst passing defense in the league ranked 32^nd. Last week against Jacksonville it finally looked like Hasselbeck was getting comfortable with his receivers, which included a sighting of their big offseason acquisition TJ Whosyourmama. Maybe I got caught up after watching Sonicgate and am picking a bad team foolishly, but it’s tough to convince me Arizona wasn’t a red hot playoff fluke last season.

Filed under Sports Tagged with NFL, football, Drew Brees, 2009, preview, Minnesota Vikings, lines, predictions, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Cheifs, Cleveland Browns, New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers, New York Giants, Spreads, Washington Redskins, week 6, matchup, Pittsburgh Steelers, Detriot Lions, Rashard Mendenhall

Doin Lines Week 5

October 9, 2009 by chappy81 5 Comments

Football Field Sideline It looks like we are starting to be able to tell between the contenders and the pretenders are already. The games actually seem much easier to pick than the past couple years. Even though last week was a little disappointing for my standards (2-3), but I wasn’t overly confident in very many games going into the week, which is why I probably only picked 5 games. Green Bay killed me when they went for the FG while down two scores. Why didn’t they go for a TD to cover that spread! I guess that should be no excuse, I expect better from myself! I’m still 16-7 on the season, so I have a little leeway at the moment in terms of a winning record on the season. I can honestly say I felt different last week watching the games, and suddenly realized that JaMarcus has single-handedly overthrown any hopes I had left that the Raiders could be competitive from week to week. Sure they might show up every third week and give someone a close game possibly even winning a couple, but in my eyes, the “caring” about the outcomes part of this season, is over. It’s scary that I was more excited about a pre-season Warriors game than my Raiders game in week 5! This should be good news from a betting perspective though! I’ll have minimal emotion attached to my picks. Here are my non-emotional LOCKS for week 5, and same as always, the home teams are in bold.

This should be on Mullet Galore's Homepage.

Minnesota (-10) Over St. Louis

These teams are polar opposites of each other. I’m no fan of the Favre 24 hour network, but this team is very good, and can’t afford to take anyone lightly. It doesn’t seem like a team that would either. The Vikes and Rams records are mirror images of each other, literally (5-0, 0-5) I can’t write a backwards five but you get the idea. The Vikings are already the media’s darlings that are Super Bowl bound, and I have a hard time being convinced that they will let up this week. I actually can’t believe this spread isn’t over 14! Adrian Peterson should have a much better game compared to last weeks very un-AP like performance. The 49ers skunked the Rams last week 35-0, and I see this one ending close to that same score. This might be the easiest pick of the week. I’m more curious if Jared Allen is going to bring back that mullet! His hair looks long enough to do it again, bring it back Jared!

Buffalo (-6) Over Cleveland

Buffalo has been a little disappointing this season as I didn’t expect that heartbreaking opener to linger this long, but they’re not nearly as disappointing as the Browns. The Bills only have one way to go, and that’s up. They’re much too talented of a team to play this poorly as they showed last season that they were at least a team that could string together a few wins. I see them getting their swagger back against a scarily bad Browns team.

I’m not sure if Cleveland got worse because they made a terrible TV show on Fox with their town’s name, but they’re already looking to the future, and seem to have conceded this season. They already traded away Braylon this week, and seemed to get what they needed in some draft picks in the future. There is only one way I could possibly see the Browns being competitive in this one, which would have to include one spectacular game from Cribbs running some kicks back. That’s not all that likely since their defense doesn’t seem to like making the other team punt.

I doubt Patrick Willis is questioning much Singletary has to say on improvements to his game.

San Francisco (-2.5) Over Atlanta

Apparently the 49ers are more and more like Mike Singletary with each passing week. He seems to have the whole team believing in themselves, which can never be underestimated. They’re probably the least publicized 3-1 team that can only get better in four or five weeks when Crabtree gets all situated. If it wasn’t for that lucky/heroic Favre throw, they could be undefeated! They’ve covered or beat the spread for me every week this season, so this is no time to give up on them now with less than a field goal! Atlanta might be better than they’ve played so far, but their offense hasn’t been in sync all season. They are coming off a bye week, but I don’t see it being easy against a solid San Francisco defense. We might have to off on Michael Turner’s breakout week. Starter Shaun Hill is a surprising 7-0 at home for the 49ers which makes me more confident in this pick, and Vernon Davis is finally relevant in San Francisco. They have something amidst the foggy bay in an otherwise dead NFC West.

Carolina (-3.5) Over Washington

I’m not big on Carolina this year, and it’s pretty hard for me to pick this one since Delhomme gets booed as much as JaMarcus at home games. He’ll just have to hope their running game can help him cure his turnover habit he’s developed lately. They have a good O-Line, so I don’t see why they aren’t running more, oh yeah, they’re usually behind. I’m kind of picking them because I just have a hard time convincing myself that they aren’t a good team. They just had their bye week, so I’m sure they had plenty of time to prep for a crappy Redskins team. Also, there wasn’t any reports of Steve Smith punching a teamate, so that has to be a plus! The Skins have won two games, but they close games against the Rams and Bucs. One of their losses came to the Lions, so really the Redskins should have a winning record with the opponents they’ve faced so far. They just changed offensive coordinators, which is always a good sign for a team during the season. I see Carolina taking their frustrations out this week on a awful Washington team.

Wes is more!

New England (-3) Over Denver

Much has been made over the Broncos sparkling record of 3-0, but I’m still not a believer. They’re much hyped defense hasn’t really faced anyone with a reputable offense. I wouldn’t even really count Dallas as a great offense at this point. I don’t know what it is, but I just can’t take the Broncos too serious yet. I think the Patriots are going to be their first real test. I thought Brady has looked like he’s coming back to his old form, and with Wes Welker being inserted back into the lineup we may see the offensive fireworks once again. Moss will be able to stop running the short routes and head upfield again! I see them getting rolling on offense again. I think Orton will have to prove himself this week as the Pats run defense is pretty solid. He’s got some playmakers in the wide receiver corp, but will he have enough time to find them against the new Patriots blitzing style defense?

Jacksonville (+1.5) Over Seattle

Don’t ask me why I’m breaking my golden rule of not betting on two crappy teams, because I don’t think I really have that answer at the moment. I guess I just have to pick the Jags, because they really took it to the Titans last week, and showed that that can be a good team at times. The Seahawks may or may not have Hasselbeck in at QB, but at this point does it really matter? Their whole offensive line is hurt, so even if he is in there with hurt ribs, I don’t see him being in there for too long. They honestly need to show me some sign of life against a team not named the Rams for me to pick them at any point this season. If Garrard had anyone besides MJD to pass to, I’d probably parlay this pick with the Minnesota game.

Maybe having the same QB every week can make him keep the balls from falling to the ground.

New York Jets (-1.5) Over Miami

The big question in this game is: can the wild cat beat the 4^th ranked defense in the league? The Rexecutioners have allowed the fewest yards in the league, and held the Madden style Saints to 10 points if it weren’t for Sanchez’s two mistakes this would have been a very close game. Sanchez will have to shoulder the offensive load with his new buddy Braylon, and critics are eager to see if he can bounce back from a bad start in Hispanic Heritage Month. The Jets have won their last three games in Miami, so I don’t see history changing now that Miami is in the Chad Henne phase of the franchise.

Filed under Sports Tagged with Atlanta Falcons, betting, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, football, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jared Allen, lines, Mark Sanchez, Miami Dolphins, Mike Singletary, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, NFL, predictions, preview, san francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Spreads, St. Louis Rams, versus, Washington Redskins, Wes Welker

Doin Lines Week 4

October 2, 2009 by chappy81 6 Comments

Chalk Lines This season has been great so far! I had a good Sunday last week going 5-1, and my sole misstep was betting on my own team. I guess my new rule should be to never bet on JaMarcus especially at home, where the crowd might be more hostile than any away game as seen on this youtube clip after the Denver game! My season record is now 14-4 from my picks last week, and my high confidence picks from the first two weeks. It’s scary how confident I feel picking games right now, I think I might be in for a big let down soon. Not like .500 let down, we’re talking Brad Lidge meltdown, but hopefully that won’t be next week! Since the bye weeks are starting up, I only really like five of the games on the board, so without further ado, here are my LOCKS of the week. Once again the home teams are in bold.

Detroit (+10) Over Chicago

Calvin Johnson Megatron

I can’t really believe that I’m going to pick the Lions two weeks in a row, but when you get ten points for a team playing against a team that only shows up half the time, I’ll take those points. For some reason I think if Detroit tries hard in any game for the rest of this season it will be this one. If you win your first game out of the last 20, wouldn’t you be fired up to do it again? I’m pretty sure I would, especially going against a long time rival. I don’t see them winning on the road, but I look for them to put up a good fight to cover two scores.

On the Chicago side, it seems like even though they injected some insulin into their offense they still don’t seem to be clicking. Sure they beat Seattle, but it was lucky at the end of the game on some blown coverage. If a suspect Seahawks team can hang around with them, so can the Lions.

Indianapolis (-10) Over Seattle

Peyton Manning funny Speaking of those Seahawks, they get to play against the princess of the NFL, Peyton Manning. In any betting format can anyone really talk themselves into taking Seneca Wallace over Manning on the road? Didn’t think so. Who cares if Freeney is out this game, Seneca probably couldn’t even start for the Browns. Seattle has six starters missing from the lineup including their QB. When you already have your 8^th starting lineman in the lineup it’s not a good sign for Seattle’s offensive continuity. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 74% of their passes against the Seattle D, and although they get Lofa Tatupu back, I think Peyton should have this one finished off by halftime. Look for Joseph Addai and Donald Brown killing some clock in the second half. Like Fabulous says “Put it in the bag”.

Buffalo (-1.5) Over Miami

Pennington’s absence is obviously going to hurt the Dolphins. They can only run the wildcat so many times before they need to throw the ball, at least a little. For some reason I can’t see Chad Henne having the same type of success as Mark Sanchez or even Matthew Stafford has had in their young careers. Hell, he could barely manage Michigan’s offense. With Porter, their defensive leader, still questionable for the game I have to go with the Bills.

Are you ready for BEAST MODE!?!

It’s really hard to be confident in the Bills offense, as they somehow got shut down by a Saints team that seems to give up a lot of points even if it happens to be garbage time. TO didn’t record one catch last week, which was the first time in 185 games. I’m sure this news is as relevant as his show is, but they do need to find ways to get him and Lee Evans the ball. They will get a huge boost as Marshawn Lynch is coming back fresh off his suspension.

San Francisco (-9.5) Over St. Louis

Last weekend was a heart breaker for the 49ers as they were the better team through much of the game. Despite losing Gore they proved that Singletary has turned them into a full on team - that doesn’t quit. They seemed to receive contributions from everyone. Now that they’re in the confines of their own home, I see them dominating a weak St. Louis team.

The Lambs are racking up injuries and losses like they’re going out of style. They have dropped 13 straight which is making me a believer that they could be this year’s Lions. The lambs must be scared that there are wolves in the end zone, because they’re averaging a league low 8.0 points per game. Kyle Boller is supposed to start this weekend, so it looks like he’ll be Patrick Willis’s lamb chop.

Green Bay (+3.5) Over Minnesota

I have as much confidence in this pick as I believe Jordan can make a comeback at 50, but only picking four games is weak! I know we’ve all heard that this isn’t personal for Favre, and that he’s not taking it as anything more than a game. Screw what he says, I think it will be more emotional than he anticipates, and in a spiteful rage he’s going to force some throws maybe getting a little too greedy. This is a very bad idea against a ball hawking defense like the Packers. Their D already has 7 picks on the season, and I see Favre forcing one at some point for a pick 6. The Minnesota defense is currently ranked 4^th in the league, but their first two weeks were against the Browns and the Lions (not exactly powerhouse offenses). Although the Packers lost to the Bengals, and haven’t showed much consistency this year, I feel like they are due for a all around well played game. I think Rodgers will benefit from overload of media surrounding Favre, so hopefully we’ll see relaxed Rodgers out there. Plus, in the wishy washy state I’m in with this game I’ll take the points, because many of these divisional battles come down to a last second field goal.

Filed under Sports Tagged with betting, Brett Favre, Buffalo Bills, Chad Henne, chicago bears, Detroit Lions, football, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, lines, locks, Marshawn Lynch, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, over, Peyton Manning, preview, san francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, under, week 4

Doin Lines Week 3

September 24, 2009 by chappy81 13 Comments

50 yard line money Another week down in the NFL season, and I have little to show for it. This week didn’t even start off promising like last week did as I went 7-9 vs. the spread, and now am 15-17 on the year. I think there’s a chance I could be entering a Lamar Odom type state as he slowly realizes he’s tying the knot with Khloe. Whatever state of self doubt it is, I may have to reconsider continuing to post these picks publicly throughout the rest of the season. On a brighter note, I once again did good in my confidence games, and am now 9-3 on the season with picks that had a confidence rating of 4 or 5 on! This gives me hope, and has made me realize that I shouldn’t be picking every game out there. I have reconsidered, and will go a different route. Say goodbye to confidence ratings, and get ready for the six LOCKS of the week. I’m guessing there’s as good a chance I’ll have a few $$ on these games come Sunday.

San Francisco (+7) Over Minnesota

Patrick Willis Adrian Peterson 49ers Vikings

Cmon AP, I just want to give you a hug!

I like taking the points here. Minnesota has looked really good this season, but on the other hand who have they played? Cleveland and Detroit to jog your memory. This will be their first real test against what I deem a good team, and most likely the only team that’s remotely worth preparing for in the NFC West. The 49ers had a win against last year’s Super Bowl loser, and I thought they showed a lot winning that game on the road. I think they’ll do just fine in Minnesota, keeping it within a touchdown. I have a feeling that Patrick Willis will be spelling Peterson all day long, which could be fun to watch. Same goes for the other featured back (Gore) in his quest for a resurrection year!

New York Jets (-2.5) Over Tennessee

I’m not sure if the Jets are “Super Bowl” good as many media outlets seem to claim on the east coast, but their defense “the Rexecutioners” has shown that they are going to be tough to score on. I didn’t think I’d pick the Jeff Fischer lead Titans to go 0-3 on the season, but in a very hostile and fired up crowd, it’s going to be tough to convince me to bet otherwise. Although Tennessee has a great running game, I think they can be tamed the way the Jets did with Steve Slaton was in Week 1. The Titans are also in the midst of a four game losing streak dating back to last season. Mark Sanchez has impressed everyone so far, and put to rest Pete Carroll’s doubts about him being ready enough to enter the draft. I guess we now know why he wanted Sanchez to stay so bad, because USC doesn’t seem to trust anyone they have to be in there!

Detroit (+6.5) Over Washington

Whoa settle down! I didn’t pick Detroit to win or anything, I just picked them to cover! This game has the same excitement level as Jessica Simpson losing her dog to a coyote. Washington went against St. Louis last weekend, and pulled out two point victory. I couldn’t believe they weren’t blowing out the Rams. The Rams are dysfunctional at best, and just showed that Washington has no identity and no offense. I think Detroit will put up a good fight at home to try and put an end to their losing streak. I don’t think they will, but I see this one being close enough to take the points.

New York Giants (-6.5) Over Tampa Bay

I’ve never given Eli much credit even though he’s won a Super Bowl, and going into this season I still viewed him as mediocre. This season everyone was to saying how he’s going to have a bad season, because he has no recievers. I’ve been very impressed with how well Manningham and Smith have played for him. If you look at it more closely is it really the recievers or is Eli really that good? As for the Buccaneers, they are the worst they’ve been since before the Tony Dungy era. They are in the midst of a six game losing streak dating back to last year. I don’t see the bleeding stopping this weekend, and forsee TV blackouts for Bucs fans in the near future!

Chicago (-2.5) Over Seattle

Cutler getting the insulin knocked out of him.

Seeing this line raise a point over the last day and a half has me convinced that the Bears are the right pick. With Hasselbeck hurting his ribs for a second straight season, I have a hard time picking them especially after getting pounded by San Francisco last weekend. The Seahawks just aren’t a good team, and I don’t see how changing to the Jim Mora Jr. Era will make things better. It seems like Cutler is getting some fluidity with his receivers as he showed the Bears faithful the kind of a Pro Bowl QB they traded for pulling out a win from the defending champs last week!

Oakland (+1.5) Over Denver

I don’t really like picking this game, because I’m not a fan of betting on my own team and jinxing them. Seriously though, how can I curse the Raiders any more than they already are. They already lost a game to the catch or no catch rule that was analyzed by David Flemming as a catch when other catches this season weren’t ruled incomplete. The Broncos got lucky against the Bengals in week 1, and followed that up with a strong performance at home against Cleveland. I think on the road it’ll be another nail biter. The Raiders looked good in their first game and lost, looked bad in their second game and won. I don’t know what to expect from their offense, but I have a feeling that their recievers that torched them last year, won’t have that same success this time around!

Filed under Sports Tagged with Adrian Peterson, betting, chicago bears, Detroit Lions, Eli Manning, football, Frank Gore, Jay Cutler, lines, Mark Sanchez, Matt Hasselbeck, Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFL, odds, patrick willis, san francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, vs., Washington Redskins, week 3

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