Perhaps it’s a sign of nothing else going on, but the top story out of the NFL today was the release of quarterback David Garrard by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Some are wondering how it will affect the Jags’ locker room. Others are wondering if it was poor timing, just five days before the regular season begins. I can’t speculate on how they’ll fare with Luke McCown under center, because quite frankly, I couldn’t tell you the difference between Luke McCown and Josh McCown, or even Cade McNown for that matter. The question I keep asking myself today is, is David Garrard the face of the franchise for Jacksonville. Your first instinct is probably to say, without a shadow of a doubt, NO. But when you dig a little deeper, you might realize that Garrard had a pretty good run with the Jags. They’ve really only had three quarterbacks in franchise history, and Garrard was the second longest tenured of the three. But that itself may be an indication that the longest tenured QB, Mark Brunell, may in fact be the answer to this question. There’s actually two other guys who you’d have to put ahead of Garrard as well, and there’ll be another in the next year or two. So forgive me when I say I never really considered Garrard to be the G.O.A.T. in Jacksonville, but it does make for a pretty fun poll…..
Tag Archives: Jacksonville Jaguars
Looks like we both need to re-evaluate how we are making these picks. We got one right out of ten last week, setting the lowest week total of wins since I’ve started doing this. Just like New Orleans picked itself up after Hurricane Katrina, we will have to do the same. We just need to hope that this turnaround happens a little faster than the real life one. This losing streak is showing me that no matter how much you think you know going into a game, you don’t really know crap compared to those lines makers. Just like the Geek and Sammy we have proven that we are good a pickin losers so far. It can’t be this bad for the rest of the year can it!?! I doubt it, so on to the picks.
What is the writing equivalent to being so ashamed, that you can’t even show your face in public? Would it be, being so ashamed that you wouldn’t want to let anyone read your words? Because that is how I feel after three consecutive, embarrassing weeks of football picks. If you fancy my words, or my humor, or perhaps lack there of, I appreciate your loyalty to me. But please, I beg of you, please do not read my picks for … *gasp* my picks. After going 1/5 last week, it absolutely dawned on me. I suck at this. I suck at this bad. Do I give up? No. But I am not cruel enough to wish bad upon our readers, so I hope you all either run as far away as you can from my picks, or simply pick the opposite. My picks should have yellow caution tape surrounding them. With that said, here are this week’s losers …
Last Week (Chappy 0-5, By 1-4) Overall (Chappy 8-14-1, By 6-12-2)
Denver (+7) @ Baltimore Continue reading
1. Drew Brees, QB – New Orleans Saints
It’s impossible to pick anyone else for MVP at the moment. He leads this Saints team with his rallying warcrys before the game that even gives fires me up! He is also the main reason the Saints have the #1 offense in the league, and it looks like that should continue. If they end up undefeated and the Colts do too, we could easily have another Co-MVP year…
2. Peyton Manning, QB – Indianapolis Colts
He’s a tough luck number two in this race. I’d say it’s mainly due to the fact that he’s had a few rough games lately, and has been a little more mistake prone than we’re used to for his standards! He’d probably drop down the list if they actually lost any of those games, but they’re still undefeated! There’s nobody you’d rather have in the 4th quarter right now than Manning. He’s led 5 straight 4th quarter comebacks, and that alone puts him close to or at the top of most peoples MVP lists!
3. Brett Favre, QB – Minnesota Vikings
You won’t find any of us at Doin Work clamoring over Favre like the guys on TV, but you can’t deny what he’s done this year. He’s got the second best QB rating behind Brees, the second most TD passes, also behind Brees, and the second highest completion rate, behind Manning. Add to that, he’s only thrown 3 interceptions all year. That’s a good game for Jay Cutler!
4. Chris Johnson, RB – Tennessee Titans
With each week that Tennessee further turns around there 0-6 start to the season, Johnson’s place in this discussion elevates. He leads the NFL in rushing by over 270 yards, and his six consecutive 125+ yard performances puts him in Earl Campbell / Eric Dickerson territory. If Tennessee makes the playoffs, he makes it a four man race. If they lose their next two games, he drops out of the discussion completely.
5. Adrian Peterson, RB – Minnesota Vikings
It’s amazing that Favre’s play has made us overlook what a great season All Day is having. Maybe it’s just becuase the media has made it Favre’s team, but I’m betting if Peterson wasn’t around, Favre wouldn’t be #3 on our list today. Since he has to be accounted for, it’s no wonder Favre is having the type of season he is having! AP already is over the 1,000 yard mark, has 12 TD’s, and at 4.7 yards per carry. If he was on a worse team, he’d have better numbers than that! Really scary!
Honorable Mention: Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego and Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville
Can I get a Kool Aid Guy, OH YEAH! I went 5-2 last week, which brings me back close to .500 at 27-28-1 on the season! I have to thank blogmate MCeezy for helping my week start right, and jinxing the 49ers to cover by betting on the Bears! I guess now that I’m not working I have a little bit more time to make my picks more informed! Anyways, let’s hope it’s another good week, and as always the home teams are in bold.
Carolina (-3) Over Miami
Did Carolina finally decide to start playing this year? Last weeks’ surprising scoring output wasn’t just within their normal means of running the ball keeping it out of Jake’s turnover prone hands. They actually threw the ball for a good portion of the game, and Delhomme actually came out of it without throwing a pick! They beat an up and down Atlanta team that lost Turner part way through, but it was impressive to me nonetheless. It shows me that Atlanta isn’t all that good, and maybe Ryan is a little overrated. Ryan has been on a downward spiral for the past few weeks and has shown that there is definitely room for improvement. The loss of Ronnie Brown is the biggest factor in this game. He’s their best offensive player. Without him on the field how will they run the wildcat? With Pat White and Rickey Williams all game? I don’t see that having the same type of success as having Brown man the show. Since the Dolphins can throw the ball about as well as the Big Tuna, they should be one dimensional enough for the Panthers to stop.
Jacksonville (-8.5) Over Buffalo
What the hell is going on here? The Jags and Panthers in two straight picks! They both earned cheerleader pictures earlier this season! I guess we’re finally seeing a little of that parody thing they always talk about within the NFL. Mike Sims-Walker actually looks like a decent receiver, and Torry Holt is always dependable for a few grabs during the game. Garrard has managed just enough through the air lately to open up those holes for Mojo to run through, and he is doing just THAT! He’s scoring nearly twice a week, and should have last week but just missed in the fantasy kneel down heard round the world! Buffalo doesn’t seem to present any problems to stopping him, so he should have a big day. Buffalo still hasn’t named a coach since firing Jaron, but I don’t think that will make much of a difference unless the new coach or interim coach can put a completely new offensive playbook in before Sunday. Their conservative style has made them even worse than I imagined they’d be! Maybe they should just let TO coach, you know he’d be all over those refs all game even if he didn’t know what he was talking about. This already sounds better than the TO show!
Indianapolis (-1) Over Baltimore
I haven’t really seen Baltimore look all that impressive in the games I’ve watched them play in. Even against the lowly Browns, they didn’t look great, which is opposite of how teams are supposed to look against them! Indy was dominated for most of the game against the Pats, and thanks to a lucky/risky move by Belichick they squeaked out with the win, and the Pats still covered for me! A solid win win situation! Indy hasn’t blown teams out very often this year, but I think they can win this game, and it will be by more than one point. Peyton should be extra pumped up for this one, as it looks like this could be their best opponent left on the schedule. Peyton has owned the Ravens going 6-2 against them, and with the announcement of Baltimore losing Suggs is surely going to hurt this Ravens defense squad. Ray can say what he wants about Peyton, but in the end he won’t be able to stop him. The undefeated season is looking more and more within reach for them!
Minnesota (-10.5) Over Seattle
Beanie Wells made an impact last week, and showed that Seattle can’t stop the run even against a team that doesn’t run. That might be pretty convenient for one Mr. Adrian Peterson. He seems to do very well against teams that don’t wrap up backs. Seattle at home can compete, but on the road I see them laying down early especially when Hasselbeck has to fear the Jared Allen and his mullet! With two of Seattle’s CB’s probably out, there is no way to convince me that this will be anything other than a blowout. Who knows, maybe even Tarvaris will be able to show off a few things that he’s learned from Brett at the end of this game!
New Orleans (-11.5) Over Tampa Bay
I think last week’s speed bump of St. Louis was a little too close for the Saints comfort level. This week should be different, after that reality check that showed them that any team can show up on a given week and could possibly take them down. So they better be ware that even the Bucs can win a game. I think Colston will bounce back nicely this weekend since he only had two receptions for 17 yards against a horrible Rams secondary, and it was his second straight bad game. He’s too good to be kept down for long. Brees hasn’t looked super sharp lately, so this feels like as good a week as any to break out as well! This might be a snorefest unless you like seeing the Saints put up points. It might be fun to watch them run up the score, but probably only if you happen to some fantasy players going in the game.
Denver (+3) Over San Diego
I guess this pick all depends on whether Orton starts or not, but I’m going out on a limb and assume he will play. I know Denver has been falling apart faster than a leper in warm water, but I think they’ll pull out a few extra tricks in this heated divisional game. Even if they don’t there’s no reason not to take the points for this home team. This game could go a long way to deciding the West, so I don’t see any problems with both teams being fired up. Even though the Broncos have lost three straight weeks and seem to be in meltdown mode, they have to break out of the funk sooner than later. If they lose this game it will be by a small amount so take the points. I hope they win, NOT because I like them in any way, shape, or form, but I just want to see Rivers cry a little. That would make my weekend!
Tennessee (+4.5) Over Houston
Tennessee is starting to roll now that they have Vince back in the mix. I’ve always been a believer that Kerry Collins was a retard since his days as a Raider. He couldn’t even get the ball to Randy f**ing Moss, so that just shows you how bad he is. The move to Vince, seems to have stabilized the offense. I don’t see them running away with it, but they look like they’ve righted the ship! I always believe in Fisher, he’s been one of my favorite coaches of all time! I don’t know what Houston’s deal is, I actually had them as a playoff team this pre-season, and at times they’ve looked like a playoff team, but at other times they’ve looked like Tennesee did at the beginning of the year, TERRIBLE! Just take the points when you aren’t sure!
Last week went as expected with an easy slate of games on the menu. Three of these were easier to bet on than picking the sun to rise from the east. It yielded my best week in the last four going 4-2-1. It kind of sucks that I’m .500 on the year when there are so many crappy teams out there, that should make this an easy gambling season. Alas, I find this weeks slate a little tougher, so I hopefully I’m not setting myself up for another sub par performance. Oh well, we’ll see if the 2nd half of the season treats me a little kinder. As usual the home teams are in bold.
Chicago (-13.5) Over Cleveland
Not that I think Chicago is all that great, but I do think Cleveland is that bad. I was pretty shocked to see Cedric Benson and Carson Palmer destroy the Bears defense this past weekend. I guess that’s how important Tommie Harris is to the Beard D, who, by the way practiced, and should be back this weekend. Derek Anderson is the proud owner of the leagues lowest QB rating, which can’t go down, right? I guess it could, but I think this should give the Bears D some much needed confidence after an ugly loss. Cutler hasn’t exactly been a Pro Bowler in Chicago, but maybe they just don’t know what to do with a quarterback since it’s been so long since they had one. It’s also a strong possibility that Cutlers’ receivers were just THAT good in Denver. They’re obviously are doing fine without him, so maybe Cutler was a little overrated. Matt Forte has been a ghost in the offense this year, but I’ll give both of their crappy starts a pass. They’ve had a fairly difficult schedule so far this season. Having the hapless Browns at home should be a good cure for them. Remember they beat Detroit 48-24 two weeks ago, so they are good enough to run the score up on crappy teams!
Houston (-3.5) Over Buffalo
I don’t know whats wrong with Buffalo. They looked like they were moving in the right direction last season, but this year just like Jamarcus, they’ve regressed. Unfortunately for them, the peak of their season may have come in week 1 when they nearly beat Patriots. They haven’t really shown they can run or throw the ball since, which makes me think they won’t be breaking out of the funk. Even TO has said that his numbers are “pathetic” (18 receptions 242 yards with one TD), which shows that even the places they were supposed to improve are regressing to in Buffalo. Houston almost blew a lead last week against SF, but the Niners offense looks better than the Bills, sadly. If Houston can get their defense straightened out, they could be a playoff team. I see Andre Johnson tearing up this suspect secondary all game long, which makes this a pretty easy pick.
Green Bay (-3) Over Minnesota
This is probably the pick Im most worried about. I missed it the last time these two teams played each other by a couple points as Minnesota won. I think this game will be more emotional for Favre in his first return to Lambeau on the opposing sideline. I know I reminisce whenever I go back to a former workplace whether its good or bad memories there are emotional ties, so I can’t see Brett being any different since he spent more time there than anyone expected. I’m looking for the crowd to get to him since they know him better than anyone. Rodgers on the other hand, looked bad in their last meeting as he was getting knocked down more times than Quagmire has pickup lines. I think he won’t be holding the ball quite as long this time around, and hopefully won’t try to force as many throws. Plus, wasnt it this time last year everybody loved the Jets because they were 4-2? I’m getting excited, it looks like Favre could still be on the path to mediocrity, and he’s one Charles Woodson interception away from losing two in a row. It might just be me, but don’t you think Aaron Kampman and Jared Allen should start a butt rock band 90′s style? Sure, Kampman cut his hair, but everyone got a glimpse of the long headbanger hair in his first year he can grow it!
Indianapolis (-12.5) Over San Francisco
It’s tough to tell who is the best team in the league between the Colts and the Saints, but both teams have been amazing. I’ve been riding the Niners bandwagon for most of the season, but I’ll have to step off their train since they’ve lost for me two weeks in a row. I’m sure the Colts will give them all they can handle. Austin Collie has slipped into a very nice complement receiver to Reggie Wayne. The Colts defense is also going to get back Bob Sanders which should give them a little extra swagger. The Niners defense has been pretty good this season, but they haven’t faced an offense as good as the Colts. If the 49ers can somehow get the running game going, their stagnant offense might start producing. I’m not sure I buy the Alex Smith is a worthy first round pick yet, but he can’t be much worse than that Shaun Hill was under center.
Arizona (-10) Over Carolina
I’ve come to the realization that Arizona is in fact for real, and making it to the Super Bowl on a hot streak. Their defense is actually pretty strong, and they may not need to put up 35+ every week to win. Carolina, has been very disappointing to say the least, and I thought they’d rebound and get it together, but it seems like they have given up on this season. Jake Delhomme could be one of the worst QB’s in the league at the moment, and has shown nothing to think the contrary. They have a running game, but what good is that when you can’t throw the ball. What could be worse for Panther fans? They traded away their 2010 first round pick to the 49ers in the Everett Brown trade last off season. Sorry Carolina, but you’ve earned the hottie of the week!
Bye week (-28) Over Jim Zorn
This guy can’t win in the media or on the field. I kind of feel bad for him, but at the same time I don’t really care. The Bye week should be a tough opponent, but I still see him losing popularity and responsibilities before their next game!
New Orleans (-10) Over Atlanta
Maybe I hyped Atlanta too much last weekend, so they showed me up by throwing in a stinker against Dallas. I really don’t think Dallas is for real, since they only are in the game when Romo plays well. There’s really only a 50/50 chance of that. I think I might have picked the Saints every week so far this season, and miraculously they’ve covered every time! Thank you Darren Sharper for that pick six with two minutes to go last week! Darren, you made the Miller Lite gambling cover of the week! I don’t like Bush saying they can go undefeated, but looking at them at this point in the season it’s hard for me to say they can’t. I see them coming out strong in this one after being worked in the first half of last weeks game.
It looks like we are starting to be able to tell between the contenders and the pretenders are already. The games actually seem much easier to pick than the past couple years. Even though last week was a little disappointing for my standards (2-3), but I wasn’t overly confident in very many games going into the week, which is why I probably only picked 5 games. Green Bay killed me when they went for the FG while down two scores. Why didn’t they go for a TD to cover that spread! I guess that should be no excuse, I expect better from myself! I’m still 16-7 on the season, so I have a little leeway at the moment in terms of a winning record on the season. I can honestly say I felt different last week watching the games, and suddenly realized that JaMarcus has single-handedly overthrown any hopes I had left that the Raiders could be competitive from week to week. Sure they might show up every third week and give someone a close game possibly even winning a couple, but in my eyes, the “caring” about the outcomes part of this season, is over. It’s scary that I was more excited about a pre-season Warriors game than my Raiders game in week 5! This should be good news from a betting perspective though! I’ll have minimal emotion attached to my picks. Here are my non-emotional LOCKS for week 5, and same as always, the home teams are in bold.
Minnesota (-10) Over St. Louis
These teams are polar opposites of each other. I’m no fan of the Favre 24 hour network, but this team is very good, and can’t afford to take anyone lightly. It doesn’t seem like a team that would either. The Vikes and Rams records are mirror images of each other, literally (5-0, 0-5) I can’t write a backwards five but you get the idea. The Vikings are already the media’s darlings that are Super Bowl bound, and I have a hard time being convinced that they will let up this week. I actually can’t believe this spread isn’t over 14! Adrian Peterson should have a much better game compared to last weeks very un-AP like performance. The 49ers skunked the Rams last week 35-0, and I see this one ending close to that same score. This might be the easiest pick of the week. I’m more curious if Jared Allen is going to bring back that mullet! His hair looks long enough to do it again, bring it back Jared!
Buffalo (-6) Over Cleveland
Buffalo has been a little disappointing this season as I didn’t expect that heartbreaking opener to linger this long, but they’re not nearly as disappointing as the Browns. The Bills only have one way to go, and that’s up. They’re much too talented of a team to play this poorly as they showed last season that they were at least a team that could string together a few wins. I see them getting their swagger back against a scarily bad Browns team.
I’m not sure if Cleveland got worse because they made a terrible TV show on Fox with their town’s name, but they’re already looking to the future, and seem to have conceded this season. They already traded away Braylon this week, and seemed to get what they needed in some draft picks in the future. There is only one way I could possibly see the Browns being competitive in this one, which would have to include one spectacular game from Cribbs running some kicks back. That’s not all that likely since their defense doesn’t seem to like making the other team punt.
San Francisco (-2.5) Over Atlanta
Apparently the 49ers are more and more like Mike Singletary with each passing week. He seems to have the whole team believing in themselves, which can never be underestimated. They’re probably the least publicized 3-1 team that can only get better in four or five weeks when Crabtree gets all situated. If it wasn’t for that lucky/heroic Favre throw, they could be undefeated! They’ve covered or beat the spread for me every week this season, so this is no time to give up on them now with less than a field goal! Atlanta might be better than they’ve played so far, but their offense hasn’t been in sync all season. They are coming off a bye week, but I don’t see it being easy against a solid San Francisco defense. We might have to off on Michael Turner’s breakout week. Starter Shaun Hill is a surprising 7-0 at home for the 49ers which makes me more confident in this pick, and Vernon Davis is finally relevant in San Francisco. They have something amidst the foggy bay in an otherwise dead NFC West.
Carolina (-3.5) Over Washington
I’m not big on Carolina this year, and it’s pretty hard for me to pick this one since Delhomme gets booed as much as JaMarcus at home games. He’ll just have to hope their running game can help him cure his turnover habit he’s developed lately. They have a good O-Line, so I don’t see why they aren’t running more, oh yeah, they’re usually behind. I’m kind of picking them because I just have a hard time convincing myself that they aren’t a good team. They just had their bye week, so I’m sure they had plenty of time to prep for a crappy Redskins team. Also, there wasn’t any reports of Steve Smith punching a teamate, so that has to be a plus! The Skins have won two games, but they close games against the Rams and Bucs. One of their losses came to the Lions, so really the Redskins should have a winning record with the opponents they’ve faced so far. They just changed offensive coordinators, which is always a good sign for a team during the season. I see Carolina taking their frustrations out this week on a awful Washington team.
New England (-3) Over Denver
Much has been made over the Broncos sparkling record of 3-0, but I’m still not a believer. They’re much hyped defense hasn’t really faced anyone with a reputable offense. I wouldn’t even really count Dallas as a great offense at this point. I don’t know what it is, but I just can’t take the Broncos too serious yet. I think the Patriots are going to be their first real test. I thought Brady has looked like he’s coming back to his old form, and with Wes Welker being inserted back into the lineup we may see the offensive fireworks once again. Moss will be able to stop running the short routes and head upfield again! I see them getting rolling on offense again. I think Orton will have to prove himself this week as the Pats run defense is pretty solid. He’s got some playmakers in the wide receiver corp, but will he have enough time to find them against the new Patriots blitzing style defense?
Jacksonville (+1.5) Over Seattle
Don’t ask me why I’m breaking my golden rule of not betting on two crappy teams, because I don’t think I really have that answer at the moment. I guess I just have to pick the Jags, because they really took it to the Titans last week, and showed that that can be a good team at times. The Seahawks may or may not have Hasselbeck in at QB, but at this point does it really matter? Their whole offensive line is hurt, so even if he is in there with hurt ribs, I don’t see him being in there for too long. They honestly need to show me some sign of life against a team not named the Rams for me to pick them at any point this season. If Garrard had anyone besides MJD to pass to, I’d probably parlay this pick with the Minnesota game.
New York Jets (-1.5) Over Miami
The big question in this game is: can the wild cat beat the 4th ranked defense in the league? The Rexecutioners have allowed the fewest yards in the league, and held the Madden style Saints to 10 points if it weren’t for Sanchez’s two mistakes this would have been a very close game. Sanchez will have to shoulder the offensive load with his new buddy Braylon, and critics are eager to see if he can bounce back from a bad start in Hispanic Heritage Month. The Jets have won their last three games in Miami, so I don’t see history changing now that Miami is in the Chad Henne phase of the franchise.
Previously posted on Cali4dre’s blog http://playunderreview.wordpress.com/
The debate picking up steam in northern Florida, specifically Jacksonville-metro and all of Florida Gator territory, is the state of the Jaguar franchise and the timing of their native son entering the NFL. I use the word timing because at no time has the Jaguar’s franchise been in worse shape off the field, having lost over 17,000 season ticket holders over the past two seasons. Yet their collegiate counterpart has seen nothing but the greatest success winning multiple National Championships and compiling players that could probably run the Jags right off the field head-to-head (speed and talent wise, perhaps not the professional skill level of course).
The unequivocal leader of this team the past four years has been The Christian Soldier, he who can do no wrong, Tim Tebow. He showed the nation something special his freshman year when he displayed pure heart and determination each time he touched the ball. He gave up his body and ego all year long as they used him much less as a quarterback and much more as a fullback/battering ram. None of that has changed over the past four years; not after winning two national championships, not since becoming the first sophomore to win the Heisman Trophy, and not since becoming a celebrity with a cult following all around the world, where several of his missionary trips have taken him. He is the perfect role model for our youth, a consummate team player and a beaming light of what used to be the norm and now is the exception.
The critics want to poke at the fact that he is not a true QB, lacking pocket presence, a strong arm, proper mechanics, and the vision required to succeed in the NFL. While this may be true for now, Tebow has taken these criticisms to heart and devoted his Senior year as much to becoming a better NFL prospect at QB as he will concentrate on the ultimate prize of winning a third BCS Championship during his tenure. This past Spring I listened to Tebow go one-on-one with Mel Kiper, Jr., the NFL Draft guru whose word is believed to be as close to truth as there is in evaluating collegiate talent. Kiper Jr. respectfully examined for Tebow the knocks on him (those listed above), and Tebow humbly took those suggestions as part of a debate on Kiper Jr. incorrect opinion. As Kiper Jr. suggested Tebow would make a better split-end/tight-end in the NFL, Tebow disagreed outright and stated he will work hard to ensure he is a QB at the next level. Again the passion and determination showed up in his voice during the healthy debate.
So why is this coming up now all of a sudden? Why are we discussing the draft position of a questionable QB in September, seven months ahead of the 2010 NFL Draft? Simple economics, that’s why. As mentioned earlier, Tebow happens to be from a city whose franchise is falling apart at the seams. Reports of players quitting on coach Jack Del Rio last year, added to the already diminishing season ticket holders and overall attendance figures, have led to reports that all of the 2009 season home games will be blacked out. I would appear the novelty of being a new NFL team as long worn off by now, especially after expectations were set so high at the franchise’s inception when they made the playoffs 5 years in a row after their inaugural season in 1995. With David Gerrard’s flashes of brilliance diminishing and an aged defensive unit starting to break down, the horizon seems bleak at the moment.
Upon further review, the Jags could be in such desperate times that they may reach a bit and pay extra attention to the “value added” aspect of gambling a first round pick on a middle-to-late round prospect. There are enough first round busts floating around to argue that this wouldn’t be that much of a stretch to begin with, and perhaps by the end of the season it won’t be a stretch at all. The Jags passed up on taking a QB in this year’s draft, but who’s to say they shouldn’t next year? The real stretch is trying to compare this to the Cleveland Cavaliers drafting Lebron James, who is a once in a lifetime talent. In no way is Tebow in James’ league amongst his peers entering the professional ranks; LeBron was (and still is) head and shoulders above his draft class. But in terms of regional marketing ability in the northern Florida region, he definitely has the same cult following and mass appeal that could alter the state of the Jacksonville Jaguars franchise.
***My verdict: Jags, go ahead and take Tebow with an early pick… because if you don’t, someone else will!
One week of the NFL season is in the books, and I could have sworn going into Monday Nights games with an 8-6 record vs. the spread I would come out with a winning week. Low and behold neither were blowouts, and I’m 8-8. I’ve always believed that the NFL is nearly impossible to win bets on a consistent basis. I guess it’s that way for pretty much any other sport too, unless you count the NBA in a Donaghy officiated game. As our blog mate (cali4dre) eloquently put on his post “Even the biggest underdog can rise up and play inspired football on any given week”. I felt good come out of the week going 5-2 on my confidence picks of 4 or 5. I’m glad to see the NFL back, and hopefully this is a good season! Anyways, here are my picks for week 2. It’s the same rules from last week as I will pick the winner, the home teams are in CAPS, and I will also give a confidence rating from 1-5 on how I feel about the pick.
Oakland (+3) Over KANSAS CITY
4, we live blogged the Raiders Monday Night game, and as a fan of the Raiders I have to say I was extremely satisfied with their efforts. There were so many question marks coming into the game, and unlike last year they showed up! Jamarcus will need to get past the, I hope this pass goes close to that wide open receiver, phase if they are going to ever get better. Kansas City played Baltimore tough, but if McGahee ran all over them, and I think McFadden and Bush will surely break off some big runs. Hopefully this can give Russell fewer opportunities to make mistakes aka wild throws. Oakland won in KC Week 2 last year, so I’m taking the points!
TENNESSEE Over (-6.5) Houston
2, this is a tough one for me, as I have a very hard time believing in Kerry Collins. I remember watching the post game interview after they lost Thursday, and he looked more dazed that Chong. He continually kept saying uhhh over and over in the interview. Pretty classic Collins. On the same notion I’ve always liked Jeff Fischer. Houston was disappointing at home against the Jets, and their offense will probably struggle more as they face a defense that brings even more pressure than New York. I’ll take my chances with the Titans at home!
New England (-3.5) Over NEW YORK JETS
5, Brady looked really rusty in the first half, but found a way to shake it off. I think this might be the game he breaks out in putting up the numbers that made him an MVP. Even last week in true lame Patriot form the ball rolled their way with a fumble, and all of a sudden they turned into 2007 Patriot mode. Is there any luckier franchise over the last decade getting those breaks?
The Jets, Mark Sanchez, looked very good in his debut. It had to have helped that Thomas Jones had a big day on the ground keeping some of that rookie QB pressure off Sanchez’s shoulders. I think Sanchez is going to need more than a running game and his Mexican Flag mouthpiece to take this one.
GREEN BAY Over (-9) Cincinnati
3, I don’t have much on this one, except I’m pretty confident that this will be won by the Packers in a major way at Lambeau Field. I’m always a believer that a team that is supposed to be a dynamic offense won’t struggle two weeks in a row, buy you can always count on the Bengals for the unexpected! If the Bengals can’t put up points against one of the worst defenses in the NFL (Denver) then how are they going to do against a pretty good looking defense? That’s what I thought…
Minnesota Over (-9.5) Over DETROIT
5, As much as I hate to take a road team at over two scores I have to do it. Detroit is the worst franchise in professional sports, and even a divisional rivalry game isn’t enough to sway me on this one. The way the Saints marched all over the Lions should show signs that the Vikings should be doing the same. I would go back to the Monday Night games to re-think this one, but Detroit doesn’t have nearly enough talented players in this underdog story. On a side note, AP is on pace for 2,880 yards rushing with 48 TDs! I think he might even increase those projected numbers this weekend.
New Orleans (+1.5) Over PHILADELPHIA
3, With McNabb’s injury sounding like he’s probably going to be out, I’m forced to take New Orleans at this point in the week, even if it is in Philly. I actually think I might have picked the Saints either way with or without McNabb. The Saints weren’t all that consistent last year, but I think having a healthy roster is already making a difference. And seriously if you had to pick between Kolb vs. Brees you have to put your money on Drew!
Carolina (+6.5) Over ATLANTA
2, I really don’t know what to expect with this one. Carolina played about as bad as you can last weekend, but they are a pretty good team. Atlanta on the other hand played okay, but showed some weak spots as they only had one drive longer than 50 yards. I think this one will be tight, so I’ll take the points.
WASHINGTON Over (-9.5) St. Louis
3, I was watching the Skins and Giants game when the Santanna Moss and Corey Webster scuffle broke out, and it made me smile. I think that was the moment I really felt like football was back! I can’t say I really liked the way the Redskins played, but they are going to play a terrible team in the Rams. The Rams seem to go backwards on offense, as they’ve racked up more penalties than the Raiders lately. Ten points is a lot to ask from the Redskins, especially since I think they might not take the Rams seriously enough, but in the end probably their second squad could probably cover ten…
JACKSONVILLE (-3) Over Arizona.
1, This game feels like a trap. I think Arizona might be pissed after their loss to SF, but do Jesus freaks like Kurt Warner even get pissed? I didn’t think so either, so I’ll have to take the Jaguars at home in this one. As you can see this is the first 1 confidence rating I’ve ever given, so to sum it up I really don’t care about this game.
SAN FRANCISCO (-1.5) Over Seattle
5, I really like this game. Seattle turned it over three times in the first quarter against the RAMS, with no consequence. They were at home, and failed to put up 50 which they could have against their horrendous D. I don’t think they can turn the ball over that much against anyone as good as the 49ers or a team at home. I’m not sold on everyone liking Seattle, because beating up the Rams is like giving up your spot in the drink line at the bar to a dude, it just doesn’t happen. I still wonder how much Crabtree could have helped SF out…
Tampa Bay (+4.5) Over BUFFALO
3, Can a team survive when their teammates house is being vandalized for losing the game? Can a team that blew a double digit lead on a short week come in fired up? My prognosis is, doubtful. They need a healthy Marshawn to soften up those coverages to get Evans and Owens some more looks. Tampa played decent against a good Cowboys squad. I think they could take this one from a flat Buffalo team. It’s my bold pick of the week.
DENVER (-3) Over Cleveland
2, This game has boring written all over it, and I don’t like to bet on bad teams. Even though the Broncos squeaked out a win, I feel like Josh McDaniels is coaching for his job already, and we’re only in week 2! I think he will deliver a win in their friendly confides of Mile High. Cleveland can’t even decide who they should have at QB as it took them until just before the season to pick between Anderson and Quinn. I almost thought they were going to change at the end of their game last week.
SAN DIEGO (-3) Over Baltimore
2, Not that I thought SD looked good last weekend against the Raiders. They seemed to sleep walk the same way the Patriots did through most of their game. I think their home opener will be a win especially with the Ravens not taking it to Kansas City more. With Rivers temper is hotter than Derrick Jeter’s press coverage in New York, I hope we see Ray Lewis get into his head in this one!
Pittsburgh (-3) Over CHICAGO
1, Giving Da Bears three points in a home game. If there’s one thing we saw in their game against the Packers is that they still have a good defense. Another thing we saw was that Cutler might be missing something, like his receivers! One plus is Cutler won’t be having to scan the field with Polomalu roaming. I wouldn’t pick this game if I didn’t have to!
New York Giants (+3) Over DALLAS
3, New York wasn’t flashy last weekend, but they did show they could be very efficient. Their defense looks great with Osi in there again. I didn’t see any of Dallas and Tampa game, so that’s all I’ll say…
Indianapolis (-3) Over MIAMI
4, I don’t mind that Indy’s not the home team. They usually don’t let bettors down two weeks in a row. They will correct those drive ending problems they ran into last week, and put Flipper into submission. Has anyone else noticed there aren’t as many Peyton Manning commercials lately? I’m so happy that the networks got the hint! I mean he had a couple good ones, but how much does anyone want to see his face that much.